Transition from suppressed to active convection modulated by a weak-temperature gradient derived large-scale circulation

Numerical simulations are performed to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on the transition from suppressed to active convection. As a model tool, we used a coupled-column model. It consists of two cloud-resolving models which are fully coupled via a large-scale circulation which is derived from the requirement that the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature profiles of the two columns remain close to each other. This is known as the weak-temperature gradient approach. The simulations of the transition are initialized from coupled-column simulations over non-uniform surface forcing and the transition is forced within the dry column by changing the local and/or remote surface forcings to uniform surface forcing across the columns. As the strength of the circulation is reduced to zero, moisture is recharged into the dry column and a transition to active convection occurs once the column is sufficiently moistened to sustain deep convection. Direct effects of changing surface forcing occur over the first few days only. Afterward, it is the evolution of the large-scale circulation which systematically modulates the transition. Its contributions are approximately equally divided between the heating and moistening effects. A transition time is defined to summarize the evolution from suppressed to active convection. It is the time when the rain rate within the dry column is halfway to the mean value obtained at equilibrium over uniform surface forcing. The transition time is around twice as long for a transition that is forced remotely compared to a transition that is forced locally. Simulations in which both local and remote surface forcings are changed produce intermediate transition times.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: synthesis and summary

The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)" project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity in both initialized hindcasts and climate simulations, while others show considerable variations in fidelity between experiments. Fidelity in hindcasts and climate simulations are not meaningfully correlated. The analysis of each experiment led to the development of process-oriented diagnostics, some of which distinguished between GCMs with higher or lower fidelity in that experiment. We select the most discriminating diagnostics and apply them to data from all experiments, where possible, to determine if correlations with MJO fidelity hold across scales and GCM states. While normalized gross moist stability had a small but statistically significant correlation with MJO fidelity in climate simulations, we find no link with fidelity in medium-range hindcasts. Similarly, there is no association between timestep-to-timestep rainfall variability, identified from short hindcasts, and fidelity in medium-range hindcasts or climate simulations. Two metrics that relate precipitation to free-tropospheric moisture--the relative humidity for extreme daily precipitation, and variations in the height and amplitude of moistening with rain rate--successfully distinguish between higher- and lower-fidelity GCMs in hindcasts and climate simulations. To improve the MJO, developers should focus on relationships between convection and both total moisture and its rate of change. We conclude by offering recommendations for further experiments.

High-precision measurements of the co-polar correlation coefficient: non-Gaussian errors and retrieval of the dispersion parameter µ in rainfall

The co-polar correlation coefficient (ρhv) has many applications, including hydrometeor classification, ground clutter and melting layer identification, interpretation of ice microphysics and the retrieval of rain drop size distributions (DSDs). However, we currently lack the quantitative error estimates that are necessary if these applications are to be fully exploited. Previous error estimates of ρhv rely on knowledge of the unknown "true" ρhv and implicitly assume a Gaussian probability distribution function of ρhv samples. We show that frequency distributions of ρhv estimates are in fact highly negatively skewed. A new variable: L = -log10(1 - ρhv) is defined, which does have Gaussian error statistics, and a standard deviation depending only on the number of independent radar pulses. This is verified using observations of spherical drizzle drops, allowing, for the first time, the construction of rigorous confidence intervals in estimates of ρhv. In addition, we demonstrate how the imperfect co-location of the horizontal and vertical polarisation sample volumes may be accounted for. The possibility of using L to estimate the dispersion parameter (µ) in the gamma drop size distribution is investigated. We find that including drop oscillations is essential for this application, otherwise there could be biases in retrieved µ of up to ~8. Preliminary results in rainfall are presented. In a convective rain case study, our estimates show µ to be substantially larger than 0 (an exponential DSD). In this particular rain event, rain rate would be overestimated by up to 50% if a simple exponential DSD is assumed.

Impact of Z-R relationship on flow estimates in central São Paulo

Mean areal radar rainfall over catchments in the State of São Paulo is an operational product under development by the Meteorological Research Institute - IPMet. A pilot project is being carried out which focuses on the important Corumbatai River basin, under surveillance by the IPMet-operated Bauru radar. Previous work on the project explored the relative impact of factors like time resolution of radar data and reflectivity to rain-rate conversion relationships, when the relevance of the latter was verified. This paper deals with the stratification of those relationships by daily intervals and its impact on flow estimates. Daily values of radar mean rainfall using gauges and different conversion relationships are plotted against the corresponding flow at the basin outlet. Flow estimates derived by applying the rainfall from the different relationships to a previously obtained rainfall-runoff curve for the basin is compared to the historical hydrograph. Preliminary results suggest stratification has hydrological significance.

Imagens de satélite na análise da relação entre queimadas, aerossóis atmosféricos e precipitação

The direct and indirect effects of atmospheric aerossols in the amazonic climate have been focus of many published. This work aims to analyze a possible relation among Burns, atmospheric aerossols and precipitation above South America. It uses the avaluable data from the satellites AQUA/TERRA and TRMM and the images furnished by NOAA and GOES. These analysis can provide some explanations about the effects of emission of aerosols by burns on the composition of atmosphere and cloud formation, mainly in Amazon. We use the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS/TERRA-AQUA, burns index from CPTEC and rain rate from TRMM. The data we use were obtained from 2000 until 2012. The study is divided in two parts. In the first one, it was performed a quantitative analysis between number of burns and aerosols emission. It was identified a great variability in space and time of the AOD on South America. On the north, northeast and center-west, the AOD is significant during the winter period, with peak on August and September. The southeast is affected by aerosols from center-west due to the dynamical transport. In the second part, it was evaluated the relation between AOD and precipitation in a 13-year period. The statistical analysis shows up a negative correlation of 0.72 between August and October, on Legal Amazon. These result indicate an inverse relation between AOD and rain rate. The other months present not significant correlation. These results are in a good agreement with the literature, in which in-situ methods were applied or combined with satellites data. The increasing of aerosols concentration in the atmosphere are reinforced during drier years. It can affect the increasing process of water drops, decreasing the precipitation. We also verified higher values of AOD (0.25 - 0.3) during years with El Niño, than the climatologically average (~0.15 - 0.2), ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Sedimentology of cores from the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula

The continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula includes a number of large sediment mounds interpreted as contourite drifts. Cores from six sediment drifts spanning some 650 km of the margin and 48 of latitude have been dated using chemical and isotopic tracers of palaeoproductivity and diatom biostratigraphy. Interglacial sedimentation rates range from 1.1 to 4.3 cm/ka. Glacial sedimentation rates range from 1.8 to 13.5 cm/ka, and decrease from proximal to distal sites on each drift. Late Quaternary sedimentation was cyclic, with brown, biogenic, burrowed mud containing ice-rafted debris (IRD) in interglacials and grey, barren, laminated mud in glacials. Foraminiferal intervals occur in interglacial stages 5 and 7 but not in the Holocene. Processes of terrigenous sediment supply during glacial stages differed; meltwater plumes were more important in stages 2-4, turbidity currents and ice-rafting in stage 6. The terrigenous component shows compositional changes along the margin, more marked in glacials. The major oxides Al2O3 and K2O are higher in the southwest, and CaO and TiO2 higher in the northeast. There is more smectite among the clay minerals in the northeast. Magnetic susceptibility varies along and between drifts. These changes reflect source variations along the margin. Interglacial sediments show less clear trends, and their IRD was derived from a wider area. Downslope processes were dominant in glacials, but alongslope processes may have attained equal importance in interglacials. The area contrasts with the East Antarctic continental slope in the SE Weddell Sea, where ice-rafting is the dominant process and where interglacial sedimentation rates are much higher than glacial. The differences in glacial setting and margin physiography can account for these contrasts.

Late Quaternary geochemical record of sediment core GeoB3375-1

Analyses of terrigenous sediments from the Chilean continental slope off the southern border of the Atacama desert (27.5°S), focusing on illite crystallinity and the Fe:Al ratio of the sediments, reveal a high-frequency variability of the position of the Southern Westerlies, which is very similar to the coeval short-term climatic events known from Greenland ice cores and from North Atlantic sediments. Besides showing dominantly precession-driven variability in precipitation over the Andes, these analyses also reveal rapid changes in weathering intensity along the Chilean Coastal Range during the last 80,000 years. These rapid changes occur at much shorter timescales than the 19-100 kyr orbital forcing of the Milankovitch cycles.

Radiolarian faunal turnover across the Oligocene/Miocene boundary in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

The global warming trend of the latest Oligocene was interrupted by several cooling events associated with Antarctic glaciations. These cooling events affected surface water productivity and plankton assemblages. Well-preserved radiolarians were obtained from upper Oligocene to lower Miocene sediments at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 199 Sites 1218 and 1219 in the equatorial Pacific, and 110 radiolarian species were identified. Four episodes of significant radiolarian faunal changes were identified: middle late Oligocene (27.5 to 27.3 Ma), latest Oligocene (24.4 Ma), earliest Miocene (23.3 Ma), and middle early Miocene (21.6 Ma). These four episodes approximately coincide with increases and decreases of biogenic silica accumulation rates and increases in delta18O values coded as "Oi" and "Mi" events. These data indicate that Antarctic glaciations were associated with change of siliceous sedimentation patterns and faunal changes in the equatorial Pacific. Radiolarian fauna was divided into three assemblages based on variations in radiolarian productivity, species richness and the composition of dominant species: a late Oligocene assemblage (27.6 to 24.4 Ma), a transitional assemblage (24.4 to 23.3 Ma) and an early Miocene assemblage (23.3 to 21.2 Ma). The late Oligocene assemblage is characterized by relatively high productivity, low species richness and four dominant species of Tholospyris anthophora, Stichocorys subligata, Lophocyrtis nomas and Lithelius spp. The transitional assemblage represents relatively low values of productivity and species richness, and consists of three dominant species of T. anthophora, S. subligata and L. nomas. The characteristics of the early Miocene assemblage are relatively low productivity, but high species richness. The two dominant species present in this assemblage are T. anthophora and Cyrtocapsella tetrapera. The most significant faunal turnover of radiolarians is marked at the boundary between the transitional/early Miocene assemblages.

Sand fraction, carbonate and organic carbon contents of ODP Hole 175-1085A

Site 1085 is located on the continental rise of southwest Africa at a water depth of 1713 m off the mouth of the Orange River in the Cape Basin. The site is part of the suite of locations drilled during Leg 175 on the Africa margin to reconstruct the onset and evolution of the elevated biological productivity associated with the Benguela Current upwelling system (Wefer, Berger, Richter, et al., 1998, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.ir.175.1998). Three sediment samples were collected per section from Cores 170-1085A-28H through 45X (251-419 mbsf) to provide a survey of the sediment record of paleoproductivity from the middle late Miocene to the early Pliocene (~8.7-4.7 Ma), which is a period that includes the postulated northward migration and intensification of the Benguela Current and the establishment of modern circulation off southwest Africa (Siesser, 1980; Diester-Haass et al., 1992; Berger et al., 1998). Core 170-1085A-30H (270-279 mbsf) had essentially no recovery; this coring gap was filled with samples from Cores 170-1085B-29H and 30H (261-280 mbsf). The results of measurements of multiple paleoproductivity proxies are summarized in this report. Included in these proxies are the radiolarian, foraminiferal, and echinoderm components of the sand-sized sediment fraction. Opal skeletons of radiolarians (no diatoms were found) relate to paleoproductivity and water mass chemistry (Summerhayes et al., 1995, doi:10.1016/0079-6611(95)00008-5; Lange and Berger, 1993, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.130.011.1993; Nelson et al., 1995, doi:10.1029/95GB01070). The accumulation rates of benthic foraminifers are useful proxies for paleoproductivity (Herguera and Berger, 1991, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1991)019<1173:PFBFAG>2.3.CO;2; Nees, 1997, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(97)00012-6; Schmiedl and Mackensen, 1997, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(96)00137-X) because these fauna subsist on organic matter exported from the photic zone. Echinoderms also depend mainly on food supply from the photic zone (Gooday and Turley, 1990), and their accumulation rates are an additional paleoproductivity proxy. Concentrations of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and organic carbon in sediment samples are fundamental measures of paleoproductivity (e.g., Meyers, 1997, doi:10.1016/S0146-6380(97)00049-1). In addition, organic matter atomic carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios and delta13C values can be used to infer the origin of the organic matter contained within the sediments and to explore some of the factors affecting its preservation and accumulation (Meyers, 1994, doi:10.1016/0009-2541(94)90059-0).

Geochemistry of ODP Site 145-882

Measurements of benthic foraminiferal cadmium:calcium (Cd/Ca) have indicated that the glacial-interglacial change in deep North Pacific phosphate (PO4) concentration was minimal, which has been taken by some workers as a sign that the biological pump did not store more carbon in the deep glacial ocean. Here we present sedimentary redox-sensitive trace metal records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 882 (NW subarctic Pacific, water depth 3244 m) to make inferences about changes in deep North Pacific oxygenation - and thus respired carbon storage - over the past 150,000 yr. These observations are complemented with biogenic barium and opal measurements as indicators for past organic carbon export to separate the influences of deep-water oxygen concentration and sedimentary organic carbon respiration on the redox state of the sediment. Our results suggest that the deep subarctic Pacific water mass was depleted in oxygen during glacial maxima, though it was not anoxic. We reconcile our results with the existing benthic foraminiferal Cd/Ca by invoking a decrease in the fraction of the deep ocean nutrient inventory that was preformed, rather than remineralized. This change would have corresponded to an increase in the deep Pacific storage of respired carbon, which would have lowered atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) by sequestering CO2 away from the atmosphere and by increasing ocean alkalinity through a transient dissolution event in the deep sea. The magnitude of change in preformed nutrients suggested by the North Pacific data would have accounted for a majority of the observed decrease in glacial atmospheric pCO2.

Geochemistry and diatom abundances in sediment trap samples of Effingham Inlet, Canada

Sediment traps were deployed inside the anoxic inner basin of Effingham Inlet and at the oxygenated mouth of the inlet from May 1999 to September 2000 in a pilot study to determine the annual depositional cycle and impact of the 1999-2000 La Niña event within a western Canadian inlet facing the open Pacific Ocean. Total mass flux, geochemical parameters (carbon, nitrogen, opal, major and minor element contents, and stable isotope ratios) and diatom assemblages were determined and compared with meteorological and oceanographic data. Deposition was seasonal, with coarser grained terrestrial components and benthic diatoms settling in the autumn and winter, coincident with the rainy season. Marine sedimentary components and abundant pelagic diatoms were coincident with coastal upwelling in the spring and summer. Despite the seasonal differences in deposition, the typical temperate-zone Thalassiosira-Skeletonema-Chaetoceros bloom succession was muted. A July 1999 total mass flux peak and an increase in biogenous components coincided with a rare bottom-water oxygen renewal event in the inlet. Likewise, there were cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) just outside the inlet, and unusually high abundances of a previously undescribed cool-water marine diatom (Fragilariopsis pacifica sp. nov.) within the inlet. Each of these occurrences likely reflects a response to the strong La Niña that followed the year after the strongest-ever recorded El Niño event of 1997-1998. By the autumn of 1999, SSTs had returned to average, and F. pacifica had all but disappeared from the remaining trap record, indicating that oceanographic conditions had returned to normal. Oxygenation events were not witnessed in the inlet in the years before or after 1999, suggesting that a rare oceanographic and climatic event was captured by this sediment trap time series. The data from this record can therefore be used as a benchmark for identifying anomalous environmental conditions on this coast.

Geochemistry of volcaniclastites of the western Pacific Ocean

Samples collected from the coarse basal portions of mid-Cretaceous volcaniclastic turbidites from the Mariana and Pigafetta basins are remarkably similar in terms of the petrographic and chemical features of their igneous clasts and bulk rock composition. Clasts of magmatic origin are dominated by glassy vesicular shards, variably phyric, holocrystalline basalts, and crystal fragments (olivine, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, amphibole, and biotite). The composition of the pyroxenes and amphiboles are typical of those found in differentiated hydrous alkali basalts. The bulk chemical composition of the volcaniclastites (based on stable incompatible elements and their ratios in highly vitric samples) is characteristic of alkali basalts found in within-plate oceanic eruptive environments. Miocene volcaniclastites from Site 802 are broadly similar to the Cretaceous samples in terms of clast type and bulk composition, and have also been derived from an oceanic alkali basalt source. The chemistry of the Miocene volcaniclastites differ, however, in having distinctive Zr/Y and Zr/Nb ratios and a more restricted chemical composition. The magmatic products of nearly emergent seamounts within the western Pacific basins appears to have been dominated by alkali basalt volcanism during the mid-Cretaceous and also the Miocene. The highly vitric nature of the Cretaceous and Miocene volcaniclastites, together with the morphology and vesicularity of their shards, suggests that they are the reworked (via mass flow) products of hyaloclastite accumulations produced in a shallow-water eruptive environment, such as that adjacent to nearly emergent seamounts or ocean islands. The association of ooids, reefal debris, and, in rare cases, woody material with the volcaniclastites supports their shallow-water derivation.

Pollen analyses of sediment core GeoB9508-5

Millennial-scale dry events in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions during the last Glacial period are commonly attributed to southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with an intensification of the northeasterly (NE) trade wind system during intervals of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Through the use of high-resolution last deglaciation pollen records from the continental slope off Senegal, our data show that one of the longest and most extreme droughts in the western Sahel history, which occurred during the North Atlantic Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), displayed a succession of three major phases. These phases progressed from an interval of maximum pollen representation of Saharan elements between ~19 and 17.4 kyr BP indicating the onset of aridity and intensified NE trade winds, followed by a millennial interlude of reduced input of Saharan pollen and increased input of Sahelian pollen, to a final phase between ~16.2 and 15 kyr BP that was characterized by a second maximum of Saharan pollen abundances. This change in the pollen assemblage indicates a mid-HS1 interlude of NE trade wind relaxation, occurring between two distinct trade wind maxima, along with an intensified mid-tropospheric African Easterly Jet (AEJ) indicating a substantial change in West African atmospheric processes. The pollen data thus suggest that although the NE trades have weakened, the Sahel drought remained severe during this time interval. Therefore, a simple strengthening of trade winds and a southward shift of the West African monsoon trough alone cannot fully explain millennial-scale Sahel droughts during periods of AMOC weakening. Instead, we suggest that an intensification of the AEJ is needed to explain the persistence of the drought during HS1. Simulations with the Community Climate System Model indicate that an intensified AEJ during periods of reduced AMOC affected the North African climate by enhancing moisture divergence over the West African realm, thereby extending the Sahel drought for about 4000 years.