Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Liquidity, moral hazard and bank crises

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When bank payoffs are partially appropriable, either directly via imposition of fines or indirectly by the use of bank equity as a collateral, we argue that an appropriately designed ex-ante regime of policy intervention involving conditional monitoring can prevent bank crises.

Carbon dioxide in scree slope deposits: A pathway from atmosphere to pedogenic carbonate

A continuum of carbon, from atmospheric CO2 to secondary calcium carbonate, has been studied in a soil associ- ated with scree slope deposits in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland. This approach is based on former studies conducted in other environments. This C continuum includes atmospheric CO2, soil organic matter (SOM), soil CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in soil solutions, and secondary pedogenic carbonate. Soil parameters (pCO2, temperature, pH, Cmin and Corg contents), soil solution chemistry, and isotopic compositions of soil CO2, DIC, carbonate and soil organic matter (δ13CCO2, δ13CDIC, δ13Ccar and δ13CSOM values) have been monitored at different depths (from 20 to 140 cm) over one year. Results demonstrated that the carbon source in secondary carbonate (mainly needle fiber calcite) is related to the dissolved inorganic carbon, which is strongly dependent on soil respiration. The heterotrophic respiration, rather than the limestone parent material, seems to control the pedogenic carbon cycle. The correlation of δ13Corg values with Rock-Eval HI and OI indices demonstrates that, in a soil associated to scree slope deposits, the main process responsible for 13C-enrichment in SOM is related to bac- terial oxidative decarboxylation. Finally, precipitation of secondary calcium carbonate is enhanced by changes in soil pCO2 associated to the convective movement of air masses induced by temperature gradients (heat pump effect) in the highly porous scree slope deposits. The exportation of soil C-leachates from systems such as the one studied in this paper could partially explain the "gap in the European carbon budget" reported by recent studies.

Stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment of Early Jurassic dinosaur-bearing volcaniclastic deposits from Toundoute (Province of Ouarzazate, Haut-Atlas, Morocco)

The Early Jurassic dinosaur site of Toundoute which yielded the basal sauropod Tazoudasaurus naimi is examined in the light of its stratigraphic, sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental context. A thin succession of Early Liassic marine carbonates (probably Hettangian-Sinemurian in age) is continuously overlain by continental beds with dinosaurs. These latter are assumed to be of Middle to Late Liassic age. The continental deposits include a large part of volcanoclastics, different from the Triassic basalts. The Jurassic volcanoclastics originated from an unknown but obviously close eruption centre. The continental sediments (channels and flood plain) were deposited under tropical climate conditions with alternating humid and dry episodes. The bones occur as isolated or partly articulated elements (parts of carcasses). The two bone-beds are related to typical mud-flows. This type of transport protected the bones from erosion, and favoured their burying and fossilization.

Hydrocarbon biomarkers in the Topla-Mezica zinc-lead deposits, northern Karavanke/Drau Range, Slovenia: Paleoenvironment at the site of ore formation

The Mississippi Valley-type zinc and lead deposits at Topla (250,150 metric tons (t) of ore grading 1.0 wt % Zn and 3.3 wt % Pb) and Mezica (19 million metric tons (Mt) of ore grading 5.3 wt % Pb and 2.7 wt % Zn) occur within the Middle to Upper Triassic platform carbonate rocks of the northern Karavanke/Drau Range geotectonic units of the Eastern Alps, Slovenia. The ore and host rocks of these deposits have been investigated by a combination of inorganic and organic geochemical methods to determine major, trace, and rare earth element (REE) concentrations, hydrocarbon distribution, and stable isotope ratios of carbonates, kerogen, extractable organic matter, and individual hydrocarbons. These data combined with sedimentological evidence provide insight into the paleoenvironmental conditions at the site of ore formation. The carbonate isotope composition, the REE patterns, and the distribution of hydrocarbon biomarkers (normal alkanes and steranes) suggest a marine depositional environment. At Topla, a relatively high concentration of redox sensitive trace elements (V, Mo, U) in the host dolostones and REE patterns parallel to that of the North American shale composite suggest that sediments were deposited in a reducing environment. Anoxic conditions enhanced the preservation of organic matter and resulted in relatively higher total organic carbon contents (up to 0.4 wt %). The isotopic composition of the kerogen (delta C-13(kerogon) = -29.4 to -25.0 parts per thousand, delta N-15(kerogen) = -.13.6 to 6.8 parts per thousand) suggests that marine algae and/or bacteria were the main source of organic carbon with a very minor contribution from detrital continental plants and a varying degree of alteration. Extractable organic matter from Topla ore is generally depleted in C-13 compared to the associated kerogen, which is consistent with an indigenous source of the bitumens. The mineralization correlates with delta N-15(kerogen) values around 0 per mil, C-13 depleted kerogen, C-13 enriched n-heptadecane, and relatively high concentrations of bacteria] hydrocarbon biomarkers, indicating a high cyanobacterial biomass at the site of ore formation. Abundant dissimilatory sulfate-reducing bacteria, feeding on the cyanobacterial remains, led to accumulation of biogenic H2S in the pore water of the sediments. This biogenic H2S was mainly incorporated into sedimentary organic matter and diagenetic pyrite. Higher bacterial activity at the ore site also is indicated by specific concentration ratios of hydrocarbons, which are roughly correlated with total Pb plus Zn contents. This correlation is consistent with mixing of hydrothermal metal-rich, fluids and local bacteriogenic sulfide sulfur. The new geochemical data provide supporting evidence that Topla is a low-temperature Mississippi Valley-type deposit formed in an anoxic supratidal saline to hypersaline environment. A laminated cyanobacterial mat, with abundant sulfate-reducing bacteria was the main site of sulfate reduction.

Designing the Optimal Conservativeness of the Central Bank

In this paper we propose a new measure of the degree of conservativeness of an inde- pendent central bank and we derive the optimal value from the social welfare perspective. We show that the mere appointment of an independent central bank is not enough to achieve lower inflation, which may explain the mixed results found between central bank independence and inflation in the empirical literature. Further, the optimal central bank should not be too conservative. For instance, we will show that in some circumstances it will be optimal that the central bank is less conservative than society in the Rogoff sense. JEL classification: E58, E63. Keywords: Central bank; Conservativeness; Independence.

Rare earth elements and stable isotope geochemistry (δ13C and δ18O) of phosphorite deposits in the Gafsa Basin, Tunisia

Rare earth elements (REE) and stable isotope compositions (delta C-13 and delta O-18) of shark teeth and phosphatic coprolites were analyzed from the Lower Maastrichtian layers of the El Haria Formation and two sequences of the Paleocene-Eocene (P/E) Chouabine Formation in the Gafsa Basin (south western of Tunisia) in order to trace the sedimentological, climatic and oceanographic conditions. The REE chemistry and their distribution in the two archives are the same for each of the studied layers indicating that the coprolites and shark teeth experienced the same early diagenetic environments. However major differences occur between the Maastrichtian and the P/E reflecting changes in the depositional conditions. The Early Maastrichtian burial environment tended to be more anoxic with REE derived from reduced FeO. While in the P/E the REE patterns mimic the modern oxic-suboxic seawater, the REE source from remineralisation of organic coating could have more significance. The oxygen isotope compositions of the structural phosphates (delta O-18(PO4)) indicate a stable and warm climate during both studied time intervals. A small offset (-0.4 parts per thousand) in the delta O-18 value between the coprolites and shark teeth show minor thermal gradient between bottom and surface water. The pronounced negative shift of 34%. in delta C-13 values recorded in the upper part of the Chouabine Formation was ascribed to the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. At the same time the lack of negative change in the delta O-18 is explained by the semi-closed situation of the Gafsa Basin, which situation also played an important role in the evolution of the organic matters in the sediment resulting in the exceptional low delta C-13 values. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ballymena Youth Bank

This project will work with 14-25 year olds to increase their understanding of health issues relevant to their age group and increase their skills to encourage other young people to become actively involved in promoting health and raising health awareness through the YouthBank grant-making scheme. 10 sessions will be carried out.

Comparison studies of tin deposits (Priamurye, Russia) using the Aitchison’s methodology

A study of tin deposits from Priamurye (Russia) is performed to analyze the differencesbetween them based on their origin and also on commercial criteria. A particularanalysis based on their vertical zonality is also given for samples from Solnechnoedeposit. All the statistical analysis are made on the subcomposition formed by seventrace elements in cassiterite (In, Sc, Be, W, Nb, Ti and V) using the Aitchison’methodology of analysis of compositional data

Malaria seroprevalence in blood bank donors from endemic and non-endemic areas of Venezuela

In Venezuela, a total of 363,466 malaria cases were reported between 1999-2009. Several states are experiencing malaria epidemics, increasing the risk of vector and possibly transfusion transmission. We investigated the risk of transfusion transmission in blood banks from endemic and non-endemic areas of Venezuela by examining blood donations for evidence of malaria infection. For this, commercial kits were used to detect both malaria-specific antibodies (all species) and malaria antigen (Plasmodium falciparum only) in samples from Venezuelan blood donors (n = 762). All samples were further studied by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The antibody results showed that P. falciparum-infected patients had a lower sample/cut-off ratio than Plasmodium vivax-infected patients. Conversely, a higher ratio for antigen was observed among all P. falciparum-infected individuals. Sensitivity and specificity were higher for malarial antigens (100 and 99.8%) than for antibodies (82.2 and 97.4%). Antibody-positive donors were observed in Caracas, Ciudad Bolívar, Puerto Ayacucho and Cumaná, with prevalences of 1.02, 1.60, 3.23 and 3.63%, respectively. No PCR-positive samples were observed among the donors. However, our results show significant levels of seropositivity in blood donors, suggesting that more effective measures are required to ensure that transfusion transmission does not occur.

Novel methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative Staphylococcus clone isolated from patients with haematological diseases at the Blood Bank Centre of Amazon, Brazil

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus remains a severe public health problem worldwide. This research was intended to identify the presence of methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative staphylococci clones and their staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec)-type isolate from patients with haematologic diseases presenting bacterial infections who were treated at the Blood Bank of the state of Amazonas in Brazil. Phenotypic and genotypic tests, such as SCCmec types and multilocus sequence typing (MLST), were developed to detect and characterise methicillin-resistant isolates. A total of 26 Gram-positive bacteria were isolated, such as: Staphylococcus epidermidis (8/27), Staphylococcus intermedius (4/27) and Staphylococcus aureus (4/27). Ten methicillin-resistant staphylococcal isolates were identified. MLST revealed three different sequence types: S. aureus ST243, S. epidermidis ST2 and a new clone of S. epidermidis, ST365. These findings reinforce the potential of dissemination presented by multi-resistant Staphylococcus and they suggest the introduction of monitoring actions to reduce the spread of pathogenic clonal lineages of S. aureus and S. epidermidis to avoid hospital infections and mortality risks.

Sr, C and O isotope systematics in the Pucara Basin, central Peru - Comparison between Mississippi Valley-type deposits and barren areas

A combined Sr, O and C isotope study has been carried out in the Pucara basin, central Peru, to compare local isotopic trends of the San Vicente and Shalipayco Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits with regional geochemical patterns of the sedimentary host basin. Gypsum, limestone and regional replacement dolomite yield Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios that fall within or slightly below the published range of seawater Sr-87/Sr-86 values for the Lower Jurassic and the Upper Triassic. Our data indicate that the Sr isotopic composition of seawater between the Hettangian and the Toarcian may extend to lower Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios than previously published values. An Sr-87-enrichment is noted in (1) carbonate rocks from the lowermost part of the Pucara basin, and (2) different carbonate generations at the MVT deposits. This indicates that host rocks at MVT deposits and in the lowermost part of the carbonate sequence interacted with Sr-87-enriched fluids. The fluids acquired their radiogenic nature by interaction with lithologies underlying the carbonate rocks of the Pucara basin. The San Ramon granite, similar Permo-Triassic intrusions and their elastic derivatives in the Mitu Group are likely sources of radiogenic Sr-87. The Brazilian shield and its erosion products are an additional potential source of radiogenic Sr-87. Volcanic rocks of the Mitu Group are not a significant source for radiogenic Sr-87; however, molasse-type sedimentary rocks and volcaniclastic rocks cannot be ruled out as a possible source of radiogenic Sr-87. The marked enrichment in Sr-87 of carbonates toward the lower part of the Pucara Group is accompanied by only a slight decrease in delta(18)O values and essentially no change in delta(13)C values, whereas replacement dolomite and sparry carbonates at the MVT deposits display a coherent trend of progressive Sr-87-enrichment, and O-18- and C-13-depletion. The depletion in O-18 in carbonates from the MVT deposits are likely related to a temperature increase, possibly coupled with a O-18-enrichment of the ore-forming fluids. Progressively lower delta(13)C values throughout the paragenetic sequence at the MVT deposits are interpreted as a gradually more important contribution from organically derived carbon. Quantitative calculations show that a single fluid-rock interaction model satisfactorily reproduces the marked Sr-87-enrichment and the slight decrease in delta(18)O values in carbonate rocks from the lower part of the Pucara Group. By contrast, the isotopic covariation trends of the MVT deposits are better reproduced by a model combining fluid mixing and fluid-rock interaction. The modelled ore-bearing fluids have a range of compositions between a hot, saline, radiogenic brine that had interacted with lithologies underlying the Pucara sequence and cooler, dilute brines possibly representing local fluids within the Pucara sequence. The composition of the local fluids varies according to the nature of the lithologies present in the neighborhood of the different MVT deposits. The proportion of the radiogenic fluid in the modelled fluid mixtures interacting with the carbonate host rocks at the MVT deposits decreases as one moves up in the stratigraphic sequence of the Pucara Group.

Discrimination in Bankruptcy Situations

In a bankruptcy situation, not all claimants are affected in the same way. In particular, some depositors may enter into a situation of personal bankruptcy if they lose part of their investments. Events of this kind may lead to a social catastrophe. We propose discrimination among the claimants as a possible solution. A fact considered in the American bankruptcy law (among others) that establishes some discrimination on the claimants, or the Santander Bank that in the Madoff’s case reimbursed only the deposits to its particular customers. Moreover, the necessity of discriminating has already been mentioned in different contexts by Young (1988), Bossert (1995), Thomson (2003) and Pulido et al. (2002, 2007), for instance. In this paper, we take a bankruptcy solution as the reference point. Given this initial allocation, we make transfers from richer to poorer with the purpose of distributing not only the personal incurred losses as evenly as possible but also the transfers in a progressive way. The agents are divided into two groups depending on their personal monetary value (wealth, net-income, GDP or any other characteristic). Then, we impose a set of Axioms that bound the maximal transfer that each net-contributor can make and each net-receiver can obtain. Finally, we define a value discriminant solution, and we characterize it by means of the Lorenz criterion. Endogenous convex combinations between solutions are also considered. Keywords: Bankruptcy, Discrimination, Compensation, Rules JEL classification: C71, D63, D71.