944 resultados para Backtesting, Risk exposure
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Aim: This study assessed the risk factors of undergraduate students to develop musculoskeletaldisorders (MSD) in the upper limbs, regarding gender, type of dental clinical procedure, mouthregion treated, and the four-handed dentistry practice. Methods: Dental students enrolled in the8th semester in the Araraquara School of Dentistry, UNESP, Brazil, were photographed whilepracticing 283 dental procedures. The Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) method was usedto evaluate the working postures of each student. The photographs were evaluated and a finalrisk score was attributed to each analyzed procedure. The prevalence of risk factors of developingMSD was estimated by point and by 95% confidence interval. The association between the riskfactor of developing disorders and variables of interest were assessed by the chi-square test witha significance level of 5%. Results: The risk factors of developing MSD were high, regardingmost dental procedures performed by the undergraduate students (score 5: 7.07%, CI95%: 4.08-10.06%; score 6: 62.54%, CI95%: 56.90-68.18%). There was no significant association betweenthe RULA final score and gender (p=0.559), and type of dental procedure (p=0.205), and mouthregions by arch (p=0.110) or hemi-arch (p=0.560), and the use of four-handed dentistry (p=0.366).Conclusions: It can be concluded that gender, type of dental clinical procedure, mouth regiontreated, and practice of four-handed dentistry did not influence the risk of developing MSD in theupper limbs among the dental students evaluated; however, they are at a high risk of developingsuch disorders.(AU).
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Because of the development of modern transportation facilities, an ever rising number of individuals including many patients with preexisting diseases visit high-altitude locations (>2500 m). High-altitude exposure triggers a series of physiologic responses intended to maintain an adequate tissue oxygenation. Even in normal subjects, there is enormous interindividual variability in these responses that may be further amplified by environmental factors such as cold temperature, low humidity, exercise, and stress. These adaptive mechanisms, although generally tolerated by most healthy subjects, may induce major problems in patients with preexisting cardiovascular diseases in which the functional reserves are already limited. Preexposure assessment of patients helps to minimize risk and detect contraindications to high-altitude exposure. Moreover, the great variability and nonpredictability of the adaptive response should encourage physicians counseling such patients to adapt a cautionary approach. Here, we will briefly review how high-altitude adjustments may interfere with and aggravate/decompensate preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, we will provide practical recommendations on how to investigate and counsel patients with cardiovascular disease desiring to travel to high-altitude locations.
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Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.
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INTRODUCTION: To report acute and late toxicities in patients with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer treated with combined high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-B) and intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: From March 2003 to September 2005, 64 men were treated with a single implant HDR-B with 21 Gy given in three fractions, followed by 50 Gy IMRT along with organ tracking. Median age was 66.1 years, and risk of recurrence was intermediate in 47% of the patients or high in 53% of the patients. Androgen deprivation therapy was received by 69% of the patients. Toxicity was scored according to the CTCAE version 3.0. Median follow-up was 3.1 years. RESULTS: Acute grade 3 genitourinary (GU) toxicity was observed in 7.8% of the patients, and late grades 3 and 4 GU toxicity was observed in 10.9% and 1.6% of the patients. Acute grade 3 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity was experienced by 1.6% of the patients, and late grade 3 GI toxicity was absent. The urethral V(120) (urethral volume receiving > or =120% of the prescribed HDR-B dose) was associated with acute (P=.047) and late > or = grade 2 GU toxicities (P=.049). CONCLUSIONS: Late grades 3 and 4GU toxicity occurred in 10.9% and 1.6% of the patients after HDR-B followed by IMRT in association with the irradiated urethral volume. The impact of V(120) on GU toxicity should be validated in further studies.
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Whole-body vibration exposure of locomotive engineers and the vibration attenuation of seats in 22 U.S. locomotives (built between 1959 and 2000) was studied during normal revenue service and following international measurement guidelines. Triaxial vibration measurements (duration mean 155 min, range 84-383 min) on the seat and on the floor were compared. In addition to the basic vibration evaluation (aw rms), the vector sum (av), the maximum transient vibration value (MTVV/aw), the vibration dose value (VDV/(aw T1/4)), and the vibration seat effective transmissibility factor (SEAT) were calculated. The power spectral densities are also reported. The mean basic vibration level (aw rms) was for the fore-aft axis x = 0.18 m/sec2, the lateral axis y = 0.28 m/sec2, and the vertical axis z = 0.32 m/sec2. The mean vector sum was 0.59 m/sec2 (range 0.27 to 1.44). The crest factors were generally at or above 9 in the horizontal and vertical axis. The mean MTVV/aw was 5.3 (x), 5.1 (y), and 4.8 (z), and the VDV/(aw T1/4) values ranged from 1.32 to 2.3 (x-axis), 1.33 to 1.7 (y-axis), and 1.38 to 1.86 (z-axis), generally indicating high levels of shocks. The mean seat transmissibility factor (SEAT) was 1.4 (x) and 1.2 (y) and 1 (z), demonstrating a general ineffectiveness of any of the seat suspension systems. In conclusion, these data indicate that locomotive rides are characterized by relatively high shock content (acceleration peaks) of the vibration signal in all directions. Locomotive vertical and lateral vibrations are similar, which appears to be characteristic for rail vehicles compared with many road/off-road vehicles. Tested locomotive cab seats currently in use (new or old) appear inadequate to reduce potentially harmful vibration and shocks transmitted to the seated operator, and older seats particularly lack basic ergonomic features regarding adjustability and postural support.
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Background: In contrast with established evidence linking high doses of ionizing radiation with childhood cancer, research on low-dose ionizing radiation and childhood cancer has produced inconsistent results. Objective: We investigated the association between domestic radon exposure and childhood cancers, particularly leukemia and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Methods: We conducted a nationwide census-based cohort study including all children < 16 years of age living in Switzerland on 5 December 2000, the date of the 2000 census. Follow-up lasted until the date of diagnosis, death, emigration, a child’s 16th birthday, or 31 December 2008. Domestic radon levels were estimated for each individual home address using a model developed and validated based on approximately 45,000 measurements taken throughout Switzerland. Data were analyzed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for child age, child sex, birth order, parents’ socioeconomic status, environmental gamma radiation, and period effects. Results: In total, 997 childhood cancer cases were included in the study. Compared with children exposed to a radon concentration below the median (< 77.7 Bq/m3), adjusted hazard ratios for children with exposure ≥ the 90th percentile (≥ 139.9 Bq/m3) were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.16) for all cancers, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.43) for all leukemias, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.43) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.61) for CNS tumors. Conclusions: We did not find evidence that domestic radon exposure is associated with childhood cancer, despite relatively high radon levels in Switzerland.
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BACKGROUND Infectious diseases and social contacts in early life have been proposed to modulate brain tumour risk during late childhood and adolescence. METHODS CEFALO is an interview-based case-control study in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, including children and adolescents aged 7-19 years with primary intracranial brain tumours diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 and matched population controls. RESULTS The study included 352 cases (participation rate: 83%) and 646 controls (71%). There was no association with various measures of social contacts: daycare attendance, number of childhours at daycare, attending baby groups, birth order or living with other children. Cases of glioma and embryonal tumours had more frequent sick days with infections in the first 6 years of life compared with controls. In 7-19 year olds with 4+ monthly sick day, the respective odds ratios were 2.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.57-5.50) and 4.21 (95% confidence interval: 1.24-14.30). INTERPRETATION There was little support for the hypothesis that social contacts influence childhood and adolescent brain tumour risk. The association between reported sick days due to infections and risk of glioma and embryonal tumour may reflect involvement of immune functions, recall bias or inverse causality and deserve further attention.
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We investigated the association between exposure to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) from broadcast transmitters and childhood cancer. First, we conducted a time-to-event analysis including children under age 16 years living in Switzerland on December 5, 2000. Follow-up lasted until December 31, 2008. Second, all children living in Switzerland for some time between 1985 and 2008 were included in an incidence density cohort. RF-EMF exposure from broadcast transmitters was modeled. Based on 997 cancer cases, adjusted hazard ratios in the time-to-event analysis for the highest exposure category (>0.2 V/m) as compared with the reference category (<0.05 V/m) were 1.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 1.43) for all cancers, 0.55 (95% CI: 0.26, 1.19) for childhood leukemia, and 1.68 (95% CI: 0.98, 2.91) for childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Results of the incidence density analysis, based on 4,246 cancer cases, were similar for all types of cancer and leukemia but did not indicate a CNS tumor risk (incidence rate ratio = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.46). This large census-based cohort study did not suggest an association between predicted RF-EMF exposure from broadcasting and childhood leukemia. Results for CNS tumors were less consistent, but the most comprehensive analysis did not suggest an association.
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been associated with exposures in so-called 'electrical occupations'. It is unclear if this possible link may be explained by exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) or by electrical shocks. We evaluated ALS mortality in 2000-2008 and exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks in the Swiss National Cohort, using job exposure matrices for occupations at censuses 1990 and 2000. We compared 2.2 million workers with high or medium vs. low exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks using Cox proportional hazard models. Results showed that mortality from ALS was higher in people who had medium or high ELF-MF exposure in both censuses (HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.11-2.15)), but closer to unity for electrical shocks (HR 1.17 (95% CI 0.83-1.65)). When both exposures were included in the same model, the HR for ELF-MF changed little (HR 1.56), but the HR for electric shocks was attenuated to 0.97. In conclusion, there was an association between exposure to ELF-MF and mortality from ALS among workers with a higher likelihood of long-term exposure.
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BACKGROUND Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channelling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient years). In a conventional Cox model, recent - but not cumulative - exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past four years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.43-2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6 to 36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.
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Conventional tort law does not allow victims of exposure to a toxic substance to seek compensation until they develop actual symptoms of illness. This may effectively bar recovery because at the time the illness arises, injurers may be judgment proof. One possible response is to allow a tort for risk that allows victims to seek expected damages at the time of exposure. However, critics charge that this could create a 'race to file' wherein victims rush to file suit to ensure that they will get a share of the injurer's limited assets. We show that such a race may or may not occur in equilibrium, and that when it does occur, not all victims choose to file at exposure if bankruptcy is an inevitable result. If bankruptcy is not inevitable, it is possible that a tort for risk will trigger bankruptcy, although a no-bankruptcy equilibrium always exists and Paretodominates the bankruptcy equilibrium. We examine the consequences of the various tort-for-risk equilibria on the compensation of exposure victims, litigation costs, and injurer care.
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Little is known about the etiology of Achondroplasia (AC), Thanatophoric Dwarfism (TD), and autosomal deletions (CD). These syndromes are due to fully penetrate genetic mutations, yet arise de novo, instead of being inherited. We examined the association between parental demographic characteristics and parental occupations with exposure to ionizing radiation and these birth defects. ^ We conducted a cross-sectional study and two case-control studies using a large database that was created by linking records from Texas Birth Defects Registry, Texas birth certificates and Texas fetal death certificates from 1996 to 2002. The first case-control study was matched on paternal age and examined 73 cases of AC and 43 cases of TD. The second case-control study was unmatched and examined 343 cases of autosomal deletion syndromes. ^ We used a job exposure matrix (JEM) to measure exposures to ionizing radiation in the workplace. This gives an estimate of the intensity and probability of exposure to ionizing radiation for each occupation and industry. ^ The prevalence rate of Achondroplasia, Thanatophoric Dwarfism and autosomal deletions was 0.36 per 10,000, 0.21 per 10,000, and 1.68 per 10,000 births respectively in Texas 1996–2002. ^ Older fathers had a strong increase in the risk of having offspring with AC or TD and a modest increase in the risk of CD. Fathers who were Black or Hispanic were less likely to have infants with AC or TD compared to Whites (adjusted POR=0.61; 95% CI 0.30, 1.26 and 0.44; 95% CI 0.27, 0.88, respectively). Black fathers and Hispanic mothers were also less likely to have infants with CD (adjusted POR=0.54; 95% CI 0.22, 1.35 and 0.62; 95% CI 0.39, 0.97). ^ After adjusting for other parental demographic factors, there was no significant relation between fathers exposure to ionizing radiation in the work place and AC or TD (adjusted OR=0.48; 95% CI 0.19, 1.25) and no significant relation between parental exposure to ionizing radiation in the work place and CD (adjusted OR=1.16; 95% CI 0.73, 1.85). ^ This is the first study to find an association between father's age and TD and CD and paternal race and AC or CD. Parental exposure to radiation for therapeutic or diagnostic indications was not measured, thus it can not be excluded as a cause of these birth defects. ^
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Background. In the United States, the incidence of pancreatic cancer has increased; more than 37,000 new cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed in the year 2007. Overall, the five-year survival rate is about 5% and pancreatic cancer ranks the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality among men and women. Despite the observed progress in cancer diagnosis and treatment, pancreatic cancer remains an unresolved significant public health problem in the United States. Familial pancreatic cancer has been confirmed to be responsible for approximately 10% of pancreatic cancer cases. However, 90% are still without known inherited predisposition. Until now, the role of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) among women with pancreatic cancer remain unclear. We examined the association of exogenous hormonal uses in US women with risk of pancreatic cancer. ^ Methods. This was an active hospital-based case-control study which is conducted at the department of gastrointestinal medical oncology in The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Between January 2005 and December 2007, a total of 287 women with pathologically confirmed pancreatic cancer (cases) and 287 healthy women (controls) were included in this investigation. Both cases and controls were frequency matched by age and race. Information about the use of hormonal contraceptives and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) preparations as well as information about several risk factors of pancreatic cancer were collected by personal interview. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in this study to analyze the data. ^ Results. We found a statistical significant protective effect for use of exogenous hormone preparations on pancreatic cancer development (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2–0.8). In addition, a 40% reduction in pancreatic cancer risk was observed among women who ever used any of the contraceptive methods including oral contraceptive pills (AOR, 6; 95% CI, 0.4–0.9). ^ Conclusions. Consistent with previous studies, the use of exogenous hormone preparations including oral contraceptive pills may confers a protective effect for pancreatic cancer development. More studies are warranted to explore for the underlying mechanism of such protection.^
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The etiology of the vast majority of osteosarcoma deaths has not been explained. A possible explanation might be lifetime ingestion of radium from environmental sources which might give rise to differential risk. This study was an effort toward understanding the role of naturally occurring radium in the etiology of bone cancer. Furthermore, there was an interest in the interaction of between radionuclides and selenium; the latter believed to be a potential anticarcinogen.^ Two approaches were used to evaluate the association between environmental radium, selenium and osteogenic sarcoma: (1) spatial and temporal patterns of osteogenic sarcoma mortality in Texas were described for the period from 1969 to 1988; and (2) a case-control study was performed using 974 osteosarcoma deaths and category-matched controls selected from other deaths to evaluate the association between this disease and residency history as an indirect measure of radium and selenium exposures.^ Analyses and comparison of mortality in a population exposed to regions of elevated levels of radium 226,228 and elevated levels of selenium in drinking water with those in a matched control population have resulted in three observations: (1) there appeared to be a slight protective effect for residing in areas high in radium; (2) there were no significant differences between cases and controls when observed for length of residence or residence in urban/rural regions of high or low radium; and (3) although regions high in selenium appeared to have a decreased risk for bone cancer and urban areas in regions of elevated selenium showed an increased risk of bone cancer, these differences were not significant. ^
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The potential for significant human populations to experience long-term inhalation of formaldehyde and reports of symptomatology due to this exposure has led to a considerable interest in the toxicologic assessment of risk from subchronic formaldehyde exposures using animal models. Since formaldehyde inhalation depresses certain respiratory parameters in addition to its other forms of toxicity, there is a potential for the alteration of the actual dose received by the exposed individual (and the resulting toxicity) due to this respiratory effect. The respiratory responses to formaldehyde inhalation and the subsequent pattern of deposition were therefore investigated in animals that had received subchronic exposure to the compound, and the potential for changes in the formaldehyde dose received due to long-term inhalation evaluated. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to either 0, 0.5, 3, or 15 ppm formaldehyde for 6 hours/day, 5 days/week for up to 6 months. The patterns of respiratory response, deposition and the compensation mechanisms involved were then determined in a series of formaldehyde test challenges to both the upper and to the lower respiratory tracts in separate groups of subchronically exposed animals and age-specific controls (four concentration groups, two time points). In both the control and pre-exposed animals, there was a characteristic recovery of respiratory parameters initially depressed by formaldehyde inhalation to at or approaching pre-exposure levels within 10 minutes of the initiation of exposure. Also, formaldehyde deposition was found to remain very high in the upper and lower tracts after long-term exposure. Therefore, there was probably little subsequent effect on the dose received by the exposed individual that was attributable to the repeated exposures. There was a diminished initial minute volume response in test challenges of both the upper and lower tracts of animals that had received at least 16 weeks of exposure to 15 ppm, with compensatory increases in tidal volume in the upper tract and respiratory rate in the lower tract. However, this dose-related effect was probably not relevant to human risk estimation because this formaldehyde dose is in excess of that experienced by human populations. ^