涡动相关法估算森林生产力及与测树学方法的比较

大气中CO2、CH4和其它温室气体浓度升高导致的全球气候变化引起了人们对全球碳循环和碳收支的关注，植被与大气间CO2通量的长期测定能够加深对陆地生态系统在全球碳循环作用的科学理解。本文以我国北方典型的温带植被类型长白山阔叶红松林为研究对象，利用观测塔上的涡动相关系统对长白山阔仆卜红松林进行长期的CO2通量监测，并分析CO2通量的周年动态，估算森林净生态系统生产力；同时基于测树学方法，进行群落调查，根据已有的经验公式，估算森林净生态系统生产力，综合评价长白山阔汗卜红松林碳收支，为森林碳收支的研究提供基础。主要结论有：（1）FSAM模型的分析结果表明，观测塔上40m高度的涡动相关仪器测量的信息中，76％来自于西北至西南方相对均质的阔叶红松原始林，其中footprint最大的源区在塔西南方100m-400m范围内。因此，森林群落调查选择在此区内进行，使得涡动相关法和测树学方法估算的生产力具有可比性。（2）2003-2004年碳通量季节变化趋势基本一致，从年初到4月上旬该森林生态系统保持较弱的正的碳通量（释放CO2），5月开始表现为净的碳吸收，且吸收量迅速增加，到6月达到最大值，然后又逐渐减小；9月末到10月末随着生长季的结束，净生态系统COZ交换（NEE）开始由负转为正，11-12月NEE为正，生态系统以呼吸为主。净生态系统COZ交换的年累计量表明长白山阔叶红松林为明显的碳汇，2003年和2004年净生态系统生产力NEP分别为-217±75gcm-2a-1和-190±85gcm-2a-1，相当于-2.17±0.75tCha-1a-1和-1.90±0.85tCha-1a-1。（3）根据经验公式和材积法得到阔汗卜红松林的生物量在343．9-362．3tha－l之间，应用两种方法得到2003一2004年群落的净初级生产力在10.22-10.40tCha-1a-1之间，净生态系统生产力在2.50±1.12tCha-1a-1-2.68±1.20tCha-1a-1之间。（4）测树学方法与涡动相关法测得的净生态系统生产力略有差异，但在误差有效范围内基本一致。

Eco-evolutionary trophic dynamics: loss of top predators drives trophic evolution and ecology of prey.

Ecosystems are being altered on a global scale by the extirpation of top predators. The ecological effects of predator removal have been investigated widely; however, predator removal can also change natural selection acting on prey, resulting in contemporary evolution. Here we tested the role of predator removal on the contemporary evolution of trophic traits in prey. We utilized a historical introduction experiment where Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) were relocated from a site with predatory fishes to a site lacking predators. To assess the trophic consequences of predator release, we linked individual morphology (cranial, jaw, and body) to foraging performance. Our results show that predator release caused an increase in guppy density and a "sharpening" of guppy trophic traits, which enhanced food consumption rates. Predator release appears to have shifted natural selection away from predator escape ability and towards resource acquisition ability. Related diet and mesocosm studies suggest that this shift enhances the impact of guppies on lower trophic levels in a fashion nuanced by the omnivorous feeding ecology of the species. We conclude that extirpation of top predators may commonly select for enhanced feeding performance in prey, with important cascading consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Likelihood, entropy and species diversity; some comparisons in a Sumatran forest

In attempts to conserve the species diversity of trees in tropical forests, monitoring of diversity in inventories is essential. For effective monitoring it is crucial to be able to make meaningful comparisons between different regions, or comparisons of the diversity of a region at different times. Many species diversity measures have been defined, including the well-known abundance and entropy measures. All such measures share a number of problems in their effective practical use. However, probably the most problematic is that they cannot be used to meaningfully assess changes, since thay are only concerned with the number of species or the proportions of the population/sample which they constitute. A natural (though simplistic) model of a species frequency distribution is the multinomial distribution. It is shown that the likelihood analysis of samples from such a distribution are closely related to a number of entropy-type measures of diversity. Hence a comparison of the species distribution on two plots, using the multinomial model and likelihood methods, leads to generalised cross-entropy as the LRT test statistic of the null that the species distributions are the same. Data from 30 contiguous plots in a forest in Sumatra are analysed using these methods. Significance tests between all pairs of plots yield extremely low p-values, indicating strongly that it ought to been "Obvious" that the observed species distributions are different on different plots. In terms of how different the plots are, and how these differences vary over the whole study site, a display of the degrees of freedom of the test, (equivalent to the number of shared species) seems to be the most revealing indicator, as well as the simplest.

Components of error of maps from remotely sensed images

The concept of a “true” ground-truth map is introduced, from which the inaccuracy/error of any production map may be measured. A partition of the mapped region is defined in terms of the “residual rectification” transformation. Geometric RMS-type and Geometric Distortion error criteria are defined as well as a map mis-classification error criterion (the latter for hard and fuzzy produc-tion maps). The total map error is defined to be the sum (over each set of the map partition men-tioned above) of these three error components integrated over each set of the partition.

A forest model archive?

The recent history and current trends in the collection and archiving of forest information and models is reviewed. The question is posed as to whether the community of forest modellers ought to take some action in setting up a Forest Model Archive (FMA) as a means of conserving and sharing the heritage of forest models that have been developed over several decades. The paper discusses the various alternatives of what an FMA could be, and should be. It then goes on to formulate a conceptual model as the basis for the construction of a FMA. Finally the question of software architecture is considered. Again there are a number of possible solutions. We discuss the alternatives, some in considerable detail, but leave the final decisions on these issues to the forest modelling community. This paper has spawned the “Greenwich Initiative” on the FMA. An internet discussion group on the topic will be started and launched by the “Trafalar Group”, which will span both IUFRO 4.1 and 4.11, and further discussion is planned to take place at the Forest Modelling Conference in Portugal, June 2002.

Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Biometric measurements in highly myopic eyes

Purpose: To assess the repeatability and accuracy of optical biometry (Lenstar LS900 optical low-coherence reflectometry [OLCR] and IOLMaster partial coherence interferometry [PCI]) and applanation ultrasound biometry in highly myopic eyes. Setting: Division of Preventive Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Guangzhou, China. Design: Comparative evaluation of diagnostic technology. Methods: Biometric measurements were taken in highly myopic subjects with a spherical equivalent (SE) of -6.00 diopters (D) or higher and an axial length (AL) longer than 25.0 mm. Measurements of AL and anterior chamber depth (ACD) obtained by OLCR were compared with those obtained by PCI and applanation A-scan ultrasound. Right eyes were analyzed. Repeatability was evaluated using the coefficient of variation (CoV) and agreement, using Bland-Altman analyses. Results: The mean SE was -11.20 D ± 4.65 (SD). The CoVs for repeated AL measurements using OLCR, PCI, and applanation ultrasound were 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.20%, respectively. The limits of agreement (LoA) for AL were 0.11 mm between OLCR and PCI, 1.01 mm between OLCR and applanation ultrasound, and 1.03 mm between PCI and ultrasound. The ACD values were 0.29 mm, 0.53 mm, and 0.51 mm, respectively. These repeatability and agreement results were comparable in eyes with extreme myopia (AL ≥27.0 mm) or posterior staphyloma. The mean radius of corneal curvature was similar between OLCR and PCI (7.66 ± 0.24 mm versus 7.64 ± 0.25 mm), with an LoA of 0.12 mm. Conclusion: Optical biometry provided more repeatable and precise measurements of biometric parameters, including AL and ACD, than applanation ultrasound biometry in highly myopic eyes. Financial Disclosure: No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. © 2012 ASCRS and ESCRS.

Distribution and visual impact of postoperative refractive error after cataract surgery in rural China: study of cataract outcomes and up-take of services report 4.

PURPOSE: To model the possible impact of using average-power intraocular lenses (IOLs) and evaluate the postoperative refractive error in patients having cataract surgery in rural China.SETTING: Rural Guangdong, China.METHODS: Patients having cataract surgery by local surgeons were examined and visual function was assessed 10 to 14 months after surgery. Subjective refraction at near and distance was performed bilaterally by an ophthalmologist. Patients had a target refraction of -0.50 diopter (D) based on ocular biometry.RESULTS: Of the 313 eligible patients, 242 (77%) could be contacted and 176 (74% of contacted patients, 56% overall) were examined. Examined patients had a mean age of 69.4 +/- 10.5 years. Of the 211 operated eyes, 73.2% were within +/-1.0 D of the target refraction after surgery. The best presenting distance vision was in patients within +/-1.0 D of plano and the best presenting near vision, in those with mild myopia (<-1.0 D to > or =2.0 D) (P= .005). However, patients with hyperopia (>+1.0 D) reported significantly better adjusted visual function than those with emmetropia or myopia (<-1.0 D). When the predicted use of an average-power IOL (median +21.5 D) was modeled, predicted visual acuity was significantly reduced (P= .001); however, predicted visual function was not significantly altered (P>.3).CONCLUSIONS: Accurate selection of postoperative refractive error was achieved by local surgeons in this rural area. Based on visual function results, aiming for mild postoperative myopia may not be suitable in this setting. Implanting average-power IOLs significantly reduced postoperative presenting vision, but not visual function.

Dark room provocative test and extent of angle closure: an anterior segment OCT study.

PURPOSE: To clarify the risk parameters measured by anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) for elevated intraocular pressures (IOP) provoked by the darkroom test and to provide recommendations for its clinical usage. METHODS: Subjects aged >40 years and whose peripheral anterior chambers were ≤1/4 corneal thickness were recruited. The anterior segment of the eye was imaged in sitting position and under both light and dark conditions and biometry was performed using anterior segment optical coherence tomography. The analyzed parameters were: (1) central anterior chamber depth (ACD); (2) anterior chamber width; (3) pupil diameter; (4) iris curvature; (5) lens thickness; and (6) number of meridians with closed angles (NCA). Then the darkroom test was performed and a positive provocative test result was defined as a rise in IOP ≥8 mm Hg after the test. Statistical analyses included: (1) the difference in parameters between positive and negative eyes; (2) the association between posttest IOP and the parameters; and (3) the difference in parameters between the 2 eyes in subjects with the asymmetric results. RESULTS: A total of 70 subjects were recruited. ACD (P=0.022), NCA in light (P<0.001), and NCA in dark (P<0.001) were different significantly between eyes with positive and negative results. There was a strong association between NCA in dark (r=0.755, P<0.001) and the posttest IOP. Among subjects with asymmetric results between the 2 eyes, the ACD was shallower and the lens thickness was larger in the positive eye. CONCLUSIONS: The posttest IOP is determined by the extent of functionally closed angles in the dark. The test may be useful in the early diagnosis of primary angle closure. At the same time, angle configuration should be evaluated to remove false positive result.

Corneal biomechanics, refractive error, and axial length in Chinese primary school children.

PURPOSE: Low corneal hysteresis is associated with longer axial length in Chinese secondary school children. The authors sought to explore this association in primary school children. METHODS: LogMAR presenting visual acuity, cycloplegic refractive error, ocular biometry, central corneal thickness (CCT), and corneal hysteresis (CH) was assessed for children in grades 1 to 3 at an academically competitive urban school in Shantou, China. RESULTS: Among 872 eligible children (mean age, 8.6 ± 2.1 years), 651 (74.7%) completed the examination. Among 1299 examined eyes, 111 (8.5%) had uncorrected vision ≤6/12. Mean spherical equivalent refractive error for all eyes was +0.26 ± 1.41 D, and axial length (AL) was 22.7 ± 0.90 mm. CH for the lowest (mean AL, 21.7 ± 0.39 mm), two middle (mean AL, 22.4 ± 0.15 and 22.9 ± 0.15 mm), and highest quartiles (mean AL, 23.7 ± 0.74 mm) of AL were 10.6 ± 2.1 mm Hg, 10.4 ± 2.1 mm Hg, 10.3 ± 2.3 mm Hg, and 10.2 ± 2.3 mm Hg respectively (age- and gender-adjusted Pearson's correlation coefficient r = -0.052; P = 0.001). In generalized estimating equation models adjusting for age, gender, and CCT, lower CH was significantly associated with longer AL (P < 0.001) and more myopic refractive error (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CH measurement is practical in young children because this is when myopia undergoes its most rapid progression. Prospective follow-up of this cohort at high risk for myopia is under way to determine whether low CH is predictive, or a consequence, of long AL.

Validating the accuracy of a model to predict the onset of myopia in children.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.

Correcting Interdevice Bias of Horizontal White-to-White and Sulcus-to-Sulcus Measures Used for Implantable Collamer Lens Sizing.

PURPOSE: To assess the agreement and repeatability of horizontal white-to-white (WTW) and horizontal sulcus-to-sulcus (STS) diameter measurements and use these data in combination with available literature to correct for interdevice bias in preoperative implantable collamer lens (ICL) size selection. DESIGN: Interinstrument reliability and bias assessment study. METHODS: A total of 107 eyes from 56 patients assessed for ICL implantation at our institution were included in the study. This was a consecutive series of all patients with suitable available data. The agreement and bias between WTW (measured with the Pentacam and BioGraph devices) and STS (measured with the HiScan device) were estimated. RESULTS: The mean spherical equivalent was -8.93 ± 5.69 diopters. The BioGraph measures of WTW were wider than those taken with the Pentacam (bias = 0.26 mm, P < .01), and both horizontal WTW measures were wider than the horizontal STS measures (bias >0.91 mm, P < .01). The repeatability (Sr) of STS measured with the HiScan was 0.39 mm, which was significantly reduced (Sr = 0.15 mm) when the average of 2 measures was used. Agreement between the horizontal WTW measures and horizontal STS estimates when bias was accounted for was г = 0.54 with the Pentacam and г = 0.64 with the BioGraph. CONCLUSIONS: Large interdevice bias was observed for WTW and STS measures. STS measures demonstrated poor repeatability, but the average of repeated measures significantly improved repeatability. In order to conform to the US Food and Drug Administration's accepted guidelines for ICL sizing, clinicians should be aware of and account for the inconsistencies between devices.

Amorçage cognitif pour amélioration de l’acquisition de la connaissance dans un système tutoriel intelligent

Cette thèse vise à définir une nouvelle méthode d’enseignement pour les systèmes tutoriels intelligents dans le but d’améliorer l’acquisition des connaissances. L’apprentissage est un phénomène complexe faisant intervenir des mécanismes émotionnels et cognitifs de nature consciente et inconsciente. Nous nous intéressons à mieux comprendre les mécanismes inconscients du raisonnement lors de l’acquisition des connaissances. L’importance de ces processus inconscients pour le raisonnement est bien documentée en neurosciences, mais demeure encore largement inexplorée dans notre domaine de recherche. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons la mise en place d’une nouvelle approche pédagogique dans le domaine de l’éducation implémentant une taxonomie neuroscientifique de la perception humaine. Nous montrons que cette nouvelle approche agit sur le raisonnement et, à tour de rôle, améliore l’apprentissage général et l’induction de la connaissance dans un environnement de résolution de problème. Dans une première partie, nous présentons l’implémentation de notre nouvelle méthode dans un système tutoriel visant à améliorer le raisonnement pour un meilleur apprentissage. De plus, compte tenu de l’importance des mécanismes émotionnels dans l’apprentissage, nous avons également procédé dans cette partie à la mesure des émotions par des capteurs physiologiques. L’efficacité de notre méthode pour l’apprentissage et son impact positif observé sur les émotions a été validée sur trente et un participants. Dans une seconde partie, nous allons plus loin dans notre recherche en adaptant notre méthode visant à améliorer le raisonnement pour une meilleure induction de la connaissance. L’induction est un type de raisonnement qui permet de construire des règles générales à partir d’exemples spécifiques ou de faits particuliers. Afin de mieux comprendre l’impact de notre méthode sur les processus cognitifs impliqués dans ce type de raisonnement, nous avons eu recours à des capteurs cérébraux pour mesurer l’activité du cerveau des utilisateurs. La validation de notre approche réalisée sur quarante-trois volontaires montre l’efficacité de notre méthode pour l’induction de la connaissance et la viabilité de mesurer le raisonnement par des mesures cérébrales suite à l’application appropriée d’algorithmes de traitement de signal. Suite à ces deux parties, nous clorons la thèse par une discussion applicative en décrivant la mise en place d’un nouveau système tutoriel intelligent intégrant les résultats de nos travaux.

Analyse de maillages surfaciques par construction et comparaison de modèles moyens et par décomposition par graphes s’appuyant sur les courbures discrètes : application à l’étude de la cornée humaine

Réalisé en cotutelle avec Aix Marseille Université.

The Koundoum sheep breed in Niger: morpho-biometric study and description of the production system

The diffusion of highly productive breeds across developing countries goes along with a neglect of indigenous breeds, which are well suited to their environment but often show low yields. Thus, in Niger, the flock of Koundoum sheep are rapidly decreasing. The Koundoum is one of the few wool sheep breeds of Africa and shows important adaptive feature to its native environment, i.e. the humid pastures on the banks of the Niger River. To characterise the breed and to understand its production context, a survey has been conducted in 104 herds in four communes along the Niger River (Kollo, Tillabery, Say and Tera). Nine body measurements, including live weight, were taken on 180 adult sheep (101 females and 79 males). The herds varied from 2 to 60 heads, with a median size of eight animals and two thirds of the herds having less than 10 animals. Mainly fed on natural pastures, 85.6% of the herds received crop residues. Only natural mating was practiced. Veterinary care was restricted to anti-helminthic and some indigenous treatments. The frequent affiliation of breeders to professional unions appeared as favourable to the implementation of a collective conservation program. The Koundoum sheep were white or black coated, with the black colour being most frequent (75.6%). Wattles were present in both sexes at similar frequencies of around 14%. All biometric variables were significantly and positively correlated between them. The thoracic perimeter showed the best correlation with live weight in both males and females. Three variables were selected for live weight prediction: thoracic perimeter, height at withers and rump length. From the present study, it is expected that the in situ conservation of the Koundoum sheep will be highly problematic, due to lack of market opportunities for wool and the willingness of smallholders to get involved in pure Koundoum rearing.