Age determinations, dinoflagellate cyst and subpolar foraminifera measurements from sediment core HH11-134-BC, from the west Spitsbergen slope

Three marine sediment cores distributed along the Norwegian (MD95-2011), Barents Sea (JM09-KA11-GC), and Svalbard (HH11-134-BC) continental margins have been investigated in order to reconstruct changes in the poleward flow of Atlantic waters (AW) and in the nature of upper surface water masses within the eastern Nordic Seas over the last 3000 yr. These reconstructions are based on a limited set of coccolith proxies: the abundance ratio between Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus pelagicus, an index of Atlantic vs. Polar/Arctic surface water masses; and Gephyrocapsa muellerae, a drifted coccolith species from the temperate North Atlantic, whose abundance changes are related to variations in the strength of the North Atlantic Current. The entire investigated area, from 66 to 77° N, was affected by an overall increase in AW flow from 3000 cal yr BP (before present) to the present. The long-term modulation of westerlies' strength and location, which are essentially driven by the dominant mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is thought to explain the observed dynamics of poleward AW flow. The same mechanism also reconciles the recorded opposite zonal shifts in the location of the Arctic front between the area off western Norway and the western Barents Sea-eastern Fram Strait region. The Little Ice Age (LIA) was governed by deteriorating conditions, with Arctic/Polar waters dominating in the surface off western Svalbard and western Barents Sea, possibly associated with both severe sea ice conditions and a strongly reduced AW strength. A sudden short pulse of resumed high WSC (West Spitsbergen Current) flow interrupted this cold spell in eastern Fram Strait from 330 to 410 cal yr BP. Our dataset not only confirms the high amplitude warming of surface waters at the turn of the 19th century off western Svalbard, it also shows that such a warming was primarily induced by an excess flow of AW which stands as unprecedented over the last 3000 yr.

Simulated climatically disturbed emergence of agricultures in Western Eurasia 8500-3000 BC

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by rapid climatic shifts? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and farmer societies. We evaluate the regional simulated transition timings and durations against a published large set of radiocarbon dates for western Eurasia; the model is able to realistically hindcast much of the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of regional Neolithic transitions. Our study shows that the inclusion of climate events improves the simulation of typical lags between cultural complexes, but that the overall difference to a model without climate events is not significant. Climate events may not have been as important for early sociocultural dynamics as endogenous factors.

Simulated transition to agropastoralism in the Indus valley 7500-3000 BC

The Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) was one of the first great civilizations in prehistory. This bronze age civilization flourished from the end of the fourth millennium BC. It disintegrated during the second millennium BC; despite much research effort, this decline is not well understood. Less research has been devoted to the emergence of the IVC, which shows continuous cultural precursors since at least the seventh millennium BC. To understand the decline, we believe it is necessary to investigate the rise of the IVC, i.e., the establishment of agriculture and livestock, dense populations and technological developments 7000-3000 BC. Although much archaeologically typed information is available, our capability to investigate the system is hindered by poorly resolved chronology, and by a lack of field work in the intermediate areas between the Indus valley and Mesopotamia. We thus employ a complementary numerical simulation to develop a consistent picture of technology, agropastoralism and population developments in the IVC domain. Results from this Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator show that there is (1) fair agreement between the simulated timing of the agricultural transition and radiocarbon dates from early agricultural sites, but the transition is simulated first in India then Pakistan; (2) an independent agropas- toralism developing on the Indian subcontinent; and (3) a positive relationship between archeological artifact richness and simulated population density which remains to be quantified.