Volume one (1) - staged collision and damage data report for accident reconstruction of twenty five (25) test vehicles (1980 model year). Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Accident Investigation Division, Washington, D.C.

Volume two (2) - staged collision and damage data report for accident reconstruction of twenty five (25) test vehicles (1980 model year). Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Accident Investigation Division, Washington, D.C.

Cost estimates of automatic crash protection in 1987 model year passenger cars. Volume I. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Vehicle Safety Compliance, Washington, D.C.

Cost estimates of automatic crash protection in 1987 model year passenger cars. Volume II. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Vehicle Safety Compliance, Washington, D.C.

Cost estimates of automatic crash protection in 1987 model year passenger cars. Volume IV. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Vehicle Safety Compliance, Washington, D.C.

Analysis of insurance claims to determine bumper effect on crash damage - 1979 model year. Final report addendum.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Plans and Programs, Washington, D.C.

A comparison of an estuary tide calculation by hydraulic model and computer /

Mode of access: Internet.

Synopsis of a plan for the thoro reorganization of the American public school system on lines to be exemplified by a model school, tentatively designated "The people's new education advanced common school" /

Cover title.

Cost estimates of automatic crash protection in 1987 model year passenger cars. Volume III. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Vehicle Safety Compliance, Washington, D.C.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

EEC energy policy and the UK:the Birmingham energy model

This paper examines the implications of the EEC common energy policy for the UK energy sector as represented by a long-term programming model. The model suggests that the UK will be a substantial net exporter of energy in 1985 and will therefore make an important contribution towards the EEC's efforts to meet its import dependency target of 50% or less of gross inland consumption. Furthermore, the UK energy sector could operate within the 1985 EEC energy policy constraints with relatively low extra cost up to the year 2020 (the end of the period covered by the model). The main effect of the constraints would be to bring forward the production of synthetic gas and oil from coal.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Curriculum renewal in legal education

This project investigated ways in which the learning experience for students in Australian law schools could be enhanced by renewing final year legal curriculum through the design of effective capstone experiences to close the loop on tertiary legal studies and better prepare students for a smooth transition into the world of work and professional practice. Key project outcomes are a set of final year curriculum design principles and a transferable model for an effective final year program – a final year Toolkit comprising a range of templates, models and specific capstone examples for adoption or adaptation by legal educators. The project found that the efficacy of capstone experiences is affected by the curriculum context within which they are offered. For this reason, a number of ‘favourable conditions’, which promote the effectiveness of capstone experiences, have also been identified. The project’s final year principles and Toolkit promote program coherence and integration, should increase student satisfaction and levels of engagement with their experience of legal education and make a valuable contribution to assurance of learning in the new Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TEQSA) environment. From the point of view of the student experience, the final year principles and models address the current fragmented approach to final year legal curricula design and delivery. The knowledge and research base acquired under the auspices of this project is of both discipline and national importance as the project’s outcomes are transferable and have the potential to significantly influence the quality and coherence of the program experience of final year students in other tertiary disciplines, both within Australia and beyond. Project outcomes and deliverables are available on both the project’s website http://wiki.qut.edu.au/display/capstone/Home and on the Law Capstone Experience Forum website http://www.lawcapstoneexperience.com/. In the course of developing its deliverables, the project found that the design of capstone experiences varies significantly within and across disciplines; different frameworks may be used (for example, a disciplinary or inter-disciplinary focus, or to satisfy professional accreditation requirements), rationales and objectives may differ, and a variety of models utilised (for example, an integrated final year program, a single subject, a suite of subjects, or modules within several subjects). Broadly however, capstone experiences should provide final year students with an opportunity both to look back over their academic learning, in an effort to make sense of what they have accomplished, and to look forward to their professional and personal futures that build on that foundational learning.

Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.