Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Diagnóstico da possível influência da atividade petrolífera em sedimentos de fundo da Bacia Piranhas-Açu, região Baixo Açu/RN

It is located in an area of increasing oil exploration, the region of the Lower Açu is at the mercy of a possible pollution generated by this economic activity, which includes various chemical substances harmful to health, such as metals. This thesis aims to, diagnose the areas of River Piranhas-Açu, a region of the Lower Açu, which are polluted by traces factors and more. In this study, it was determined the concentration of the chemica elements Al, CD, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, P, Pb, V and Zn, through the technique of ICP-OES analysis and the size of sediments and their contents organic matter. Were mapped by GPS, 12 points from collections. The interpretations of the results, together associating that allowed pollution to a possible contamination by oil activity. The results showed tha some regions have low concentrations of cadmium, lead, copper, manganese and zinc unable to promote damage to human health. However, there are places where the concentrations of certain metals chromium, iron and zinc are moderately polluted compared to the results with the reference values of literature and others that are highly polluted by iron. However, due to a greater number of wells in production in those locations, those higher concentrations, it can be suggested a possible influence of oi production in some areas with concentrations of chromium and lead are higher than the rest of the points of monitoring. Moreover, it is observed that the highest levels of metals found in sediment of finer texture and more organic matter content

Estudo da segregação gravitacional do processo de injeção de vapor em reservátórios heterogêneos

Due to reservoirs complexity and significantly large reserves, heavy oil recovery has become one of the major oil industry challenges. Thus, thermal methods have been widely used as a strategic method to improve heavy oil recovery. These methods improve oil displacement through viscosity reduction, enabling oil production in fields which are not considered commercial by conventional recovery methods. Among the thermal processes, steam flooding is the most used today. One consequence in this process is gravity segregation, given by difference between reservoir and injected fluids density. This phenomenon may be influenced by the presence of reservoir heterogeneities. Since most of the studies are carried out in homogeneous reservoirs, more detailed studies of heterogeneities effects in the reservoirs during steam flooding are necessary, since most oil reservoirs are heterogeneous. This paper presents a study of reservoir heterogeneities and their influence in gravity segregation during steam flooding process. In this study some heterogeneous reservoirs with physical characteristics similar those found in the Brazilian Northeast Basin were analyzed. To carry out the simulations, it was used the commercial simulator STARS by CMG (Computer Modeling Group) - version 2007.11. Heterogeneities were modeled with lower permeability layers. Results showed that the presence of low permeability barriers can improve the oil recovery, and reduce the effects of gravity segregation, depending on the location of heterogeneities. The presence of these barriers have also increased the recovered fraction even with the reduction of injected steam rate

Estudo da perda de carga e calor no poço injetor no processo De drenagem gravitacional assistida por vapor (SAGD)

The oil companies in the area in general are looking for new technologies that can increase the recovery factor of oil contained in reservoirs. These investments are mainly aimed at reducing the costs of projects which are high. Steam injection is one of these special methods of recovery in which steam is injected into the reservoir in order to reduce the viscosity of the oil and make it more mobile. The process assisted gravity drainage steam (SAGD) using steam injection in its mechanism, as well as two parallel horizontal wells. In this process steam is injected through the horizontal injection well, then a vapor chamber is formed by heating the oil in the reservoir and, by the action of gravitational forces, this oil is drained down to where the production well. This study aims to analyze the influence of pressure drop and heat along the injection well in the SAGD process. Numerical simulations were performed using the thermal simulator STARS of CMG (Computer Modeling Group). The parameters studied were the thermal conductivity of the formation, the flow of steam injection, the inner diameter of the column, the steam quality and temperature. A factorial design was used to verify the influence of the parameters studied in the recovery factor. We also analyzed different injection flow rates for the model with pressure drop and no pressure drop, as well as different maximum flow rates of oil production. Finally, we performed an economic analysis of the two models in order to check the profitability of the projects studied. The results showed that the pressure drop in injection well have a significant influence on the SAGD process.

Estudo da viabilidade econômica em campos maduros

When it comes to oil and gas in Brazil is almost certain that we are referring to activities in deep waters off the coast of Campos, Rio de Janeiro, the main field of action of PETROBRAS and a small number of multinational oil companies . Since the Law 9.478/97 allows, by means of concessions, that other companies other than Petrobras, to explore and produce oil and gas domestically. Soon it moved, then the private companies that want small and medium-sized businesses to invest in such activities, forming a segment of independent producers, as occurs in other countries. In this context, this work aims at making an economic feasibility study, is currently analyzing how this thread and focus on the factors that contribute to its development as well as those that constitute barriers. To this end, we conducted a survey examining some mature fields that are in production in order to capture cost information in the phases of project, operation and abandonment. The work also presents an analysis of the results obtained in the survey, identifying the costs higher. With the results obtained through the study used economic engineering tools such as NPV and IRR, using a variety of design scenarios, to study the economic viability of these fields. In scenario 4 was set a production of 4.0 m³ / d of oil, which is an expected average production for several of these fields, whose minimum value of a barrel of oil, to enable this field, was $ 55.00, this value well below what was being practiced in the market today.

Extração de metais (K, Mg, Ba, Ca, Cr, Mn, Li, Fe) de água produzida utilizando sistema microemulsionado

The produced water is a byproduct formed due to production of petroleum and carries with it a high amount of contaminants such as oil particles in suspension, organic compounds and metals. Thus, these latter pollutants are very difficult to treat because of its high solubility in water. The objective of this work is to use and evaluate a microemulsioned system to remove metals ( K , Mg , Ba , Ca , Cr , Mn , Li , Fe ) of synthetic produced water. For the extraction of metals, it was used a pseudoternary diagram containing the following phases: synthetic produced water as the aqueous phase (AP), hexane as organic phase (OP), and a cosurfactant/surfactant ratio equal to four (C/S = 4) as the third phase, where the OCS (saponified coconut oil) was used as surfactant and n-butanol as cosurfactant. The synthetic produced water was prepared in a bench scale and the region of interest in the diagram for the removal of metals was determined by experimental design called. Ten points located in the phase Winsor II were selected in an area with a large amount of water and small amounts of reagents. The samples were analyzed in atomic absorption spectrometer, and the results were evaluated through a statistical assesment, allowing the efficiency analysis of the effects and their interactions. The results showed percentages of extraction above 90% for the metals manganese, iron, chromium, calcium, barium and magnesium, and around 45% for metals lithium and potassium. The optimal point for the simultaneous removal of metals was calculated using statistical artifact multiple response function (MR). This calculation showed that the point of greatest extraction of metals occurs was the J point, with the composition [72% AP, 9% OP, 19% C/S], obtaining a global extraction percentage about 80%. Considering the aspects analyzed, the microemulsioned system has shown itself to be an effective alternative in the extraction of metals on synthetic produced water remediation

Simulação do escoamento monofásico em um estágio de uma bomba centrífuga utilizando técnicas de fluidodinâmica computacional

Oil production and exploration techniques have evolved in the last decades in order to increase fluid flows and optimize how the required equipment are used. The base functioning of Electric Submersible Pumping (ESP) lift method is the use of an electric downhole motor to move a centrifugal pump and transport the fluids to the surface. The Electric Submersible Pumping is an option that has been gaining ground among the methods of Artificial Lift due to the ability to handle a large flow of liquid in onshore and offshore environments. The performance of a well equipped with ESP systems is intrinsically related to the centrifugal pump operation. It is the pump that has the function to turn the motor power into Head. In this present work, a computer model to analyze the three-dimensional flow in a centrifugal pump used in Electric Submersible Pumping has been developed. Through the commercial program, ANSYS® CFX®, initially using water as fluid flow, the geometry and simulation parameters have been defined in order to obtain an approximation of what occurs inside the channels of the impeller and diffuser pump in terms of flow. Three different geometry conditions were initially tested to determine which is most suitable to solving the problem. After choosing the most appropriate geometry, three mesh conditions were analyzed and the obtained values were compared to the experimental characteristic curve of Head provided by the manufacturer. The results have approached the experimental curve, the simulation time and the model convergence were satisfactory if it is considered that the studied problem involves numerical analysis. After the tests with water, oil was used in the simulations. The results were compared to a methodology used in the petroleum industry to correct viscosity. In general, for models with water and oil, the results with single-phase fluids were coherent with the experimental curves and, through three-dimensional computer models, they are a preliminary evaluation for the analysis of the two-phase flow inside the channels of centrifugal pump used in ESP systems

Controle aplicado a poços com método de elevação e bombeio centrífugo submerso

The Electrical Submersible Pumping is an artificial lift method for oil wells employed in onshore and offshore areas. The economic revenue of the petroleum production in a well depends on the oil flow and the availability of lifting equipment. The fewer the failures, the lower the revenue shortfall and costs to repair it. The frequency with which failures occur depends on the operating conditions to which the pumps are submitted. In high-productivity offshore wells monitoring is done by operators with engineering support 24h/day, which is not economically viable for the land areas. In this context, the automation of onshore wells has clear economic advantages. This work proposes a system capable of automatically control the operation of electrical submersible pumps, installed in oil wells, by an adjustment at the electric motor rotation based on signals provided by sensors installed on the surface and subsurface, keeping the pump operating within the recommended range, closest to the well s potential. Techniques are developed to estimate unmeasured variables, enabling the automation of wells that do not have all the required sensors. The automatic adjustment, according to an algorithm that runs on a programmable logic controller maintains the flow and submergence within acceptable parameters avoiding undesirable operating conditions, as the gas interference and high engine temperature, without need to resort to stopping the engine, which would reduce the its useful life. The control strategy described, based on modeling of physical phenomena and operational experience reported in literature, is materialized in terms of a fuzzy controller based on rules, and all generated information can be accompanied by a supervisory system

Desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta computacional para aplicação em métodos de elevação por bombeio centrífugo submerso

The Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) has been one of the most appropriate solutions for lifting method in onshore and offshore applications. The typical features for this application are adverse temperature, viscosity fluids and gas environments. The difficulties in equipments maintenance and setup contributing to increasing costs of oil production in deep water, therefore, the optimization through automation can be a excellent approach for decrease costs and failures in subsurface equipment. This work describe a computer simulation related with the artificial lifting method ESP. This tool support the dynamic behavior of ESP approach, considering the source and electric energy transmission model for the motor, the electric motor model (including the thermal calculation), flow tubbing simulation, centrifugal pump behavior simulation with liquid nature effects and reservoir requirements. In addition, there are tri-dimensional animation for each ESP subsytem (transformer, motor, pump, seal, gas separator, command unit). This computer simulation propose a improvement for monitoring oil wells for maximization of well production. Currenty, the proprietaries simulators are based on specific equipments manufactures. Therefore, it is not possible simulation equipments of another manufactures. In the propose approach there are support for diverse kinds of manufactures equipments

Desenvolvimento de um simulador de bombeio por cavidades progressivas

The method of artificial lift of progressing cavity pump is very efficient in the production of oils with high viscosity and oils that carry a great amount of sand. This characteristic converted this lift method into the second most useful one in oil fields production. As it grows the number of its applications it also increases the necessity to dominate its work in a way to define it the best operational set point. To contribute to the knowledge of the operational method of artificial lift of progressing cavity pump, this work intends to develop a computational simulator for oil wells equipped with an artificial lift system. The computational simulator of the system will be able to represent its dynamic behavior when submitted to the various operational conditions. The system was divided into five subsystems: induction motor, multiphase flows into production tubing, rod string, progressing cavity pump and annular tubing-casing. The modeling and simulation of each subsystem permitted to evaluate the dynamic characteristics that defined the criteria connections. With the connections of the subsystems it was possible to obtain the dynamic characteristics of the most important arrays belonging to the system, such as: pressure discharge, pressure intake, pumping rate, rod string rotation and torque applied to polish string. The shown results added to a friendly graphical interface converted the PCP simulator in a great potential tool with a didactic characteristic in serving the technical capability for the system operators and also permitting the production engineering to achieve a more detail analysis of the dynamic operational oil wells equipped with the progressing cavity pump

Degradação fotoquímica de hidrocarbonetos da gasolina em efluentes aquosos

Photo-oxidation processes of toxic organic compounds have been widely studied. This work seeks the application of the photo-Fenton process for the degradation of hydrocarbons in water. The gasoline found in the refinery, without additives and alcohol, was used as the model pollutant. The effects of the concentration of the following substances have been properly evaluated: hydrogen peroxide (100-200 mM), iron ions (0.5-1 mM) and sodium chloride (200 2000 ppm). The experiments were accomplished in reactor with UV lamp and in a falling film solar reactor. The photo-oxidation process was monitored by measurements of the absorption spectra, total organic carbon (TOC) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). Experimental results demonstrated that the photo-Fenton process is feasible for the treatment of wastewaters containing aliphatic hydrocarbons, inclusive in the presence of salts. These conditions are similar to the water produced by the petroleum fields, generated in the extraction and production of petroleum. A neural network model of process correlated well the observed data for the photooxidation process of hydrocarbons

Estudo da circulação hidrodinâmica e da dispersão de óleo na zona costeira entre Macau e Galinhos RN

This paper presents a study on coastal hydrodynamics and the spread of an oil spill in waters off Macau and Galinhos, on the east coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte in Northeast Brazil. This area has a very marked coastal dynamic owing to the complexity of its geomorphological features, developed in a regime of semidiurnal mesotides involving reefs, spits, estuaries, mangroves, lakes and dunes. The region also plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of the state, given that the production of oil, natural gas, salt and shrimp is concentrated there. The series of oil platforms is interconnected by a pipeline system that carries oil to the local terminal. This pipeline could leak at any moment, causing immense ecological damage. To gauge the risks of an oil leak and resulting contamination of the coastal region, two hydrodynamic scenarios were simulated. The results obtained were used to implement a contaminant transport model with the creation of various oil leak scenarios modeled at different volumes (from small to large) and intensities (sporadic and continuous), at points considered critical for the model (on two platforms and at two pipeline intersections), under different wind (summer and winter) and tidal (high and low at new, full and quarter moon phases) conditions. The use of hydrodynamic circulation computer models as a tool for representing a real project design has been increasingly frequent in recent years, given that they enable the realistic simulation of the hydrodynamic circulation pattern in bodies of water and an analysis of the impacts caused by contaminants released into the water. This study used the computer models contained in SisBAHIA®, in continuous development in the area of Coastal Engineering and Oceanography at COPPE/UFRJ

Caracterização química e toxicológica da água produzida descartada em plataformas de óleo e gás na costa brasileira e seu comportamento dispersivo no mar

The production of oil and gas is usually accompanied by the production of water, also known as produced water. Studies were conducted in platforms that discharge produced water in the Atlantic Ocean due to oil and gas production by Petrobras from 1996 to 2006 in the following basins: Santos (Brazilian south region), Campos (Brazilian southeast region) and Ceara (Brazilian northeast region). This study encompasses chemical composition, toxicological effects, discharge volumes, and produced water behavior after releasing in the ocean, including dispersion plumes modeling and monitoring data of the marine environment. The concentration medians for a sampling of 50 samples were: ammonia (70 mg L-1), boron (1.3 mg L1), iron (7.4 mg L-1), BTEX (4.6 mg L-1), PAH (0.53 mg L-1), TPH (28 mg L-1); phenols (1.3 mg L-1) and radioisotopes (0.15 Bq L-1 for 226Ra and 0.09 Bq L-1 for 228Ra). The concentrations of the organic and inorganic parameters observed for the Brazilian platforms were similar to the international reference data for the produced water in the North Sea and in other regions of the world. It was found significant differences in concentrations of the following parameters: BTEX (p<0.0001), phenols (p=0.0212), boron (p<0.0001), iron (p<0.0001) and toxicological response in sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus (p<0.0001) when considering two distinguished groups, platforms from southeast and northeast Region (PCR-1). Significant differences were not observed among the other parameters. In platforms with large gas production, the monoaromatic concentrations (BTEX from 15.8 to 21.6 mg L-1) and phenols (from 2 to 83 mg L-1) were higher than in oil plataforms (median concentrations of BTEX were 4.6 mg L-1 for n=53, and of phenols were 1.3 mg L-1 for n=46). It was also conducted a study about the influence of dispersion plumes of produced water in the vicinity of six platforms of oil and gas production (P-26, PPG-1, PCR-1, P-32, SS-06), and in a hypothetical critical scenario using the chemical characteristics of each effluent. Through this study, using CORMIX and CHEMMAP models for dispersion plumes simulation of the produced water discharges, it was possible to obtain the dilution dimension in the ocean after those discharges. The dispersion plumes of the produced water modelling in field vicinity showed dilutions of 700 to 900 times for the first 30-40 meters from the platform PCR-1 discharge point; 100 times for the platform P-32, with 30 meters of distance; 150 times for the platform P-26, with 40 meters of distance; 100 times for the platform PPG-1, with 130 meters of distance; 280 to 350 times for the platform SS-06, with 130 meters of distance, 100 times for the hypothetical critical scenario, with the 130 meters of distance. The dilutions continue in the far field, and with the results of the simulations, it was possible to verify that all the parameters presented concentrations bellow the maximum values established by Brazilian legislation for seawater (CONAMA 357/05 - Class 1), before the 500 meters distance of the discharge point. These results were in agreement with the field measurements. Although, in general results for the Brazilian produced water presented toxicological effects for marine organisms, it was verified that dilutions of 100 times were sufficient for not causing toxicological responses. Field monitoring data of the seawater around the Pargo, Pampo and PCR-1 platforms did not demonstrate toxicity in the seawater close to these platforms. The results of environmental monitoring in seawater and sediments proved that alterations were not detected for environmental quality in areas under direct influence of the oil production activities in the Campos and Ceara Basin, as according to results obtained in the dispersion plume modelling for the produced water discharge

Caracterização química e toxicológica da água produzida descartada em plataformas de óleo e gás na costa brasileira e seu comportamento dispersivo no mar

The production of oil and gas is usually accompanied by the production of water, also known as produced water. Studies were conducted in platforms that discharge produced water in the Atlantic Ocean due to oil and gas production by Petrobras from 1996 to 2006 in the following basins: Santos (Brazilian south region), Campos (Brazilian southeast region) and Ceara (Brazilian northeast region). This study encompasses chemical composition, toxicological effects, discharge volumes, and produced water behavior after releasing in the ocean, including dispersion plumes modeling and monitoring data of the marine environment. The concentration medians for a sampling of 50 samples were: ammonia (70 mg L-1), boron (1.3 mg L1), iron (7.4 mg L-1), BTEX (4.6 mg L-1), PAH (0.53 mg L-1), TPH (28 mg L-1); phenols (1.3 mg L-1) and radioisotopes (0.15 Bq L-1 for 226Ra and 0.09 Bq L-1 for 228Ra). The concentrations of the organic and inorganic parameters observed for the Brazilian platforms were similar to the international reference data for the produced water in the North Sea and in other regions of the world. It was found significant differences in concentrations of the following parameters: BTEX (p<0.0001), phenols (p=0.0212), boron (p<0.0001), iron (p<0.0001) and toxicological response in sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus (p<0.0001) when considering two distinguished groups, platforms from southeast and northeast Region (PCR-1). Significant differences were not observed among the other parameters. In platforms with large gas production, the monoaromatic concentrations (BTEX from 15.8 to 21.6 mg L-1) and phenols (from 2 to 83 mg L-1) were higher than in oil plataforms (median concentrations of BTEX were 4.6 mg L-1 for n=53, and of phenols were 1.3 mg L-1 for n=46). It was also conducted a study about the influence of dispersion plumes of produced water in the vicinity of six platforms of oil and gas production (P-26, PPG-1, PCR-1, P-32, SS-06), and in a hypothetical critical scenario using the chemical characteristics of each effluent. Through this study, using CORMIX and CHEMMAP models for dispersion plumes simulation of the produced water discharges, it was possible to obtain the dilution dimension in the ocean after those discharges. The dispersion plumes of the produced water modelling in field vicinity showed dilutions of 700 to 900 times for the first 30-40 meters from the platform PCR-1 discharge point; 100 times for the platform P-32, with 30 meters of distance; 150 times for the platform P-26, with 40 meters of distance; 100 times for the platform PPG-1, with 130 meters of distance; 280 to 350 times for the platform SS-06, with 130 meters of distance, 100 times for the hypothetical critical scenario, with the 130 meters of distance. The dilutions continue in the far field, and with the results of the simulations, it was possible to verify that all the parameters presented concentrations bellow the maximum values established by Brazilian legislation for seawater (CONAMA 357/05 - Class 1), before the 500 meters distance of the discharge point. These results were in agreement with the field measurements. Although, in general results for the Brazilian produced water presented toxicological effects for marine organisms, it was verified that dilutions of 100 times were sufficient for not causing toxicological responses. Field monitoring data of the seawater around the Pargo, Pampo and PCR-1 platforms did not demonstrate toxicity in the seawater close to these platforms. The results of environmental monitoring in seawater and sediments proved that alterations were not detected for environmental quality in areas under direct influence of the oil production activities in the Campos and Ceara Basin, as according to results obtained in the dispersion plume modelling for the produced water discharge

Identificação e comparação entre controle preditivo com modelo não linear e PI sintonizados com PSO em sistema de separação gravitacional de águia-óleo

The separation methods are reduced applications as a result of the operational costs, the low output and the long time to separate the uids. But, these treatment methods are important because of the need for extraction of unwanted contaminants in the oil production. The water and the concentration of oil in water should be minimal (around 40 to 20 ppm) in order to take it to the sea. Because of the need of primary treatment, the objective of this project is to study and implement algorithms for identification of polynomial NARX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Input) models in closed loop, implement a structural identification, and compare strategies using PI control and updated on-line NARX predictive models on a combination of three-phase separator in series with three hydro cyclones batteries. The main goal of this project is to: obtain an optimized process of phase separation that will regulate the system, even in the presence of oil gushes; Show that it is possible to get optimized tunings for controllers analyzing the mesh as a whole, and evaluate and compare the strategies of PI and predictive control applied to the process. To accomplish these goals a simulator was used to represent the three phase separator and hydro cyclones. Algorithms were developed for system identification (NARX) using RLS(Recursive Least Square), along with methods for structure models detection. Predictive Control Algorithms were also implemented with NARX model updated on-line, and optimization algorithms using PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization). This project ends with a comparison of results obtained from the use of PI and predictive controllers (both with optimal state through the algorithm of cloud particles) in the simulated system. Thus, concluding that the performed optimizations make the system less sensitive to external perturbations and when optimized, the two controllers show similar results with the assessment of predictive control somewhat less sensitive to disturbances