Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

The first real-time worldwide ionospheric predictions network: an advance in support of spaceborne experimentation, on-line model validation, and space weather

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and "in situ" electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the "in situ" observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

Methane cross-validation between three Fourier Transform Spectrometers: SCISAT ACE-FTS, GOSAT TANSO-FTS, and ground-based FTS measurements in the Canadian high Arctic

We present cross-validation of remote sensing measurements of methane profiles in the Canadian high Arctic. Accurate and precise measurements of methane are essential to understand quantitatively its role in the climate system and in global change. Here, we show a cross-validation between three datasets: two from spaceborne instruments and one from a ground-based instrument. All are Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTSs). We consider the Canadian SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)-FTS, a solar occultation infrared spectrometer operating since 2004, and the thermal infrared band of the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO)-FTS, a nadir/off-nadir scanning FTS instrument operating at solar and terrestrial infrared wavelengths, since 2009. The ground-based instrument is a Bruker 125HR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, measuring mid-infrared solar absorption spectra at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) Ridge Lab at Eureka, Nunavut (80° N, 86° W) since 2006. For each pair of instruments, measurements are collocated within 500 km and 24 h. An additional criterion based on potential vorticity values was found not to significantly affect differences between measurements. Profiles are regridded to a common vertical grid for each comparison set. To account for differing vertical resolutions, ACE-FTS measurements are smoothed to the resolution of either PEARL-FTS or TANSO-FTS, and PEARL-FTS measurements are smoothed to the TANSO-FTS resolution. Differences for each pair are examined in terms of profile and partial columns. During the period considered, the number of collocations for each pair is large enough to obtain a good sample size (from several hundred to tens of thousands depending on pair and configuration). Considering full profiles, the degrees of freedom for signal (DOFS) are between 0.2 and 0.7 for TANSO-FTS and between 1.5 and 3 for PEARL-FTS, while ACE-FTS has considerably more information (roughly 1° of freedom per altitude level). We take partial columns between roughly 5 and 30 km for the ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS comparison, and between 5 and 10 km for the other pairs. The DOFS for the partial columns are between 1.2 and 2 for PEARL-FTS collocated with ACE-FTS, between 0.1 and 0.5 for PEARL-FTS collocated with TANSO-FTS or for TANSO-FTS collocated with either other instrument, while ACE-FTS has much higher information content. For all pairs, the partial column differences are within ± 3 × 1022 molecules cm−2. Expressed as median ± median absolute deviation (expressed in absolute or relative terms), these differences are 0.11 ± 9.60 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.012 ± 1.018 %) for TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS, −2.6 ± 2.6 × 10^21 molecules cm−2 (−1.6 ± 1.6 %) for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS, and 7.4 ± 6.0 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.78 ± 0.64 %) for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS. The differences for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS and TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS partial columns decrease significantly as a function of PEARL partial columns, whereas the range of partial column values for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS collocations is too small to draw any conclusion on its dependence on ACE-FTS partial columns.

OSCILLATOR STRENGTHS AND LIFETIMES FOR THE P XII

Semi-empirical weighted oscillator strengths (gf) and lifetimes presented in this work for all experimentally known electric dipole P XII spectral lines and energy levels were computed within a multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock relativistic approach. In this calculation, the electrostatic parameters were optimized by a least-squares procedure in order to improve the adjustment to experimental energy levels. The method produces lifetime and gf values that are in agreement with intensity observations used for the interpretation of spectrograms of solar and laboratory plasmas.

Design method for solar heating systems in combination with pellet boilers/stoves

In this study an optimization method for the design of combined solar and pellet heating systems is presented and evaluated. The paper describes the steps of the method by applying it for an example of system. The objective of the optimization was to find the design parameters that give the lowest auxiliary energy (pellet fuel + auxiliary electricity) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions for a system with a typical load, a single family house in Sweden. Weighting factors have been used for the auxiliary energy use and CO emissions to give a combined target function. Different weighting factors were tested. The results show that extreme weighting factors lead to their own minima. However, it was possible to find factors that ensure low values for both auxiliary energy and CO emissions.

Solar versus fossil fuels : A net energy analysis of domestic solar hot water systems in Australia

It is commonly assumed that solar hot water systems save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional electric and gas hot water systems. Very rarely has the life-cycle energy requirements (including the embodied energy of manufacture) of solar hot water systems been analysed. The extent to which solar hot water systems can save energy compared to conventional electric or gas hot water systems can be shown through a comparative net energy analysis. This method determines the ‘energy payback period’, including consideration of the difference in operational energy savings and energy embodied in the devices relative to a base case. Dr Robert Crawford, Deakin University, Australia presents the results of a net energy analysis that compared solar and conventional hot water systems for a southern (Melbourne) and a northern (Brisbane) Australian climate.

Effect of load pattern on solar-boosted heat pump water heater performance

The performance of a solar-boosted heat pump water heater (HPWH) operating under full load and part load conditions was determined in an outdoor experimental study. The system utilised flat unglazed aluminium solar evaporator panels to absorb solar and ambient energy. Absorbed energy was transferred to the water tank by means of the heat pump and a wrap around condenser coil on the outside of the tank. The system COP was found to be in the range of 5–7 under clear daytime conditions and 3–5 under clear night-time conditions. Using part load testing of the HPWH system it was found that concentrating the coils in the lower portion of the tank could increase the efficiency of the condenser coil. It was also shown that there exists a generalised linear relationship that can be used to describe the system COP in terms of the temperature difference between the water in the storage tank and the ambient air.

Balancing comfort expectations and greenhouse gas emissions, thermal comfort in office buildings in a changing climate

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the construction sector has the greatest potential for climate change mitigation. This work investigates the potential for climate change mitigation in naturally ventilated and mixed mode office buildings, by evaluating the range of influence of building design and occupants on greenhouse gas emissions as well as thermal and visual comfort.

Thermal comfort is evaluated according to the EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model, visual comfort is based on daylight autonomy and view. Parametric studies have been conducted based on building simulation for the climate of Athens, Greece. Input data are based on a literature review, and on results from a field study conducted among office occupants and architects in Athens.

The results show that the influence of occupants on greenhouse gas emissions is larger than the influence of building design. Energy saving office equipment, as well as active use of building controls for shading and lighting by occupants are crucial parameters regarding the reduction of CO2 emissions. In mixed mode buildings, the coefficient of performance of the cooling system is an important parameter as well. Regarding thermal and visual comfort, the influence of building design is predominant. A green building, well protected against heat from the sun and able to balance solar and internal heat gains, provides higher comfort levels and is less affected by the influence of occupants. In mixed mode buildings, building design is the predominant influence on the magnitude of cooling loads. A hot summer including heat waves can significantly reduce thermal comfort and increase the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Green buildings are least affected by these influences.

The EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model provides a thermal comfort evaluation method valid throughout Europe. However, for the Mediterranean climate of Athens, Greece, most of the configurations investigated within this study do not meet the requirements according to this model. EN 15251 refers to an adaptive thermal comfort model for naturally ventilated and to a static model for mechanically ventilated buildings. For mixed mode buildings, the static model is recommended, but literature indicates that occupants in those buildings might be more tolerant towards higher temperatures. The hypothetical application of the EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model in mixed mode offices, as investigated in this study, shows potential for greenhouse gas emission savings. However, this influence is small compared to that of building design and occupants. Conclusions are drawn regarding the categorisation and exceeding criteria according to EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model for offices in a Mediterranean climate.

The results of this work show, that not only green buildings, but also green occupants can significantly contribute to the mitigation of the climate change. Mechanisms of the real estate market as well as the lifestyle of occupants are important influences in this context. Sustainability therefore refers to finding the right balance between occupant’s comfort expectations and resulting greenhouse gas emissions for a specific building, rather than optimisation of single parameters

Analysing building energy use using sub metering and external weather data

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the McKinsey Greenhouse Gas abatement studies have highlighted reduction of building energy consumption as a primary cost-effective element in the abatement of Global Warming. Nevertheless, the energy investigation in most of our existing building stock remains at a novice level at best. Building sub-metering, by which we mean any secondary, hourly, metering (after the main) of various circuits, provides substantial information on when and where energy is used in specific buildings. Furthermore, combining this information with external weather data provides information beyond basic metering results. This paper discusses three case studies and explains how sub-metering, augmented by external solar and temperature data, benefits energy management and identified problems. It explains how different methods of analysing energy usage allowed: justifiable sizing of a solar photovoltaic system, with a calculated Cooling Degree Unit, identified the absence of savings from a proprietary chiller controller, and the energy variation due to user schedules and external conditions indicated anomalies in energy use. The advantages of wireless access are noted. Extracting information in graphical formats suggests better strategies to understand and control energy use.

Sustainability analysis and resource management for wireless mesh networks with renewable energy supplies

 There is a growing interest in the use of renewable energy sources to power wireless networks in order to mitigate the detrimental effects of conventional energy production or to enable deployment in off-grid locations. However, renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, are by nature unstable in their availability and capacity. The dynamics of energy supply hence impose new challenges for network planning and resource management. In this paper, the sustainable performance of a wireless mesh network powered by renewable energy sources is studied. To address the intermittently available capacity of the energy supply, adaptive resource management and admission control schemes are proposed. Specifically, the goal is to maximize the energy sustainability of the network, or equivalently, to minimize the failure probability that the mesh access points (APs) deplete their energy and go out of service due to the unreliable energy supply. To this end, the energy buffer of a mesh AP is modeled as a G/G/1(/N) queue with arbitrary patterns of energy charging and discharging. Diffusion approximation is applied to analyze the transient evolution of the queue length and the energy depletion duration. Based on the analysis, an adaptive resource management scheme is proposed to balance traffic loads across the mesh network according to the energy adequacy at different mesh APs. A distributed admission control strategy to guarantee high resource utilization and to improve energy sustainability is presented. By considering the first and second order statistics of the energy charging and discharging processes at each mesh AP, it is demonstrated that the proposed schemes outperform some existing state-of-the-art solutions.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Renewable energy integration : challenges and solutions

This book presents different aspects of renewable energy integration, from the latest developments in renewable energy technologies to the currently growing smart grids. The importance of different renewable energy sources is discussed, in order to identify the advantages and challenges for each technology. The rules of connecting the renewable energy sources have also been covered along with practical examples. Since solar and wind energy are the most popular forms of renewable energy sources, this book provides the challenges of integrating these renewable generators along with some innovative solutions. As the complexity of power system operation has been raised due to the renewable energy integration, this book also includes some analysis to investigate the characteristics of power systems in a smarter way. This book is intended for those working in the area of renewable energy integration in distribution networks.

Modelos de estimativa de radiação solar para elaboração de mapas solarimétricos

O objetivo fundamental desta dissertação foi desenvolver modelos de estimativa da radiação solar no intuito de complementar a base de dados visando o traçado de mapas de radiação solar para o Rio Grande do Sul. Inicialmente foi realizada uma pesquisa na literatura sobre as metodologias desenvolvidas para a estimativa da radiação solar para locais onde inexistem dados medidos desta variável. Foi feito um levantamento das técnicas estatísticas utilizadas na previsão de valores de variáveis. As metodologias pesquisadas foram aplicadas ao banco de dados SAMSON (Solar and Meteorological Surface Observational Network). Entre as variáveis deste banco de dados estão a radiação solar, a umidade relativa, a temperatura, a latitude, a altitude e a nebulosidade. A metodologia dos modelos de estimativa aplicada neste trabalho baseia-se no Método dos Mínimos Quadrados. Foram realizadas correlações mensais e anuais entre as variáveis acima citadas e seus resultados validados através de validação cruzada. Resultou apropriada, na disponibilidade de dados climatológicos, a aplicação de modelos com parâmetros mensais de regressão linear múltipla envolvendo as variáveis explicativas: insolação, temperatura média e umidade relativa. Este modelo, entre outros, foi aplicado aos dados do Rio Grande do Sul. A metodologia acima descrita aplicada aos dados medidos no Rio Grande do Sul, resultou eficaz. Foram pesquisadas técnicas de interpolação para traçado de mapas e estabelecidas regras para o traçado dos mesmos. Foram utilizados dados periféricos para a Argentina, Uruguai e Santa Catarina. Foram feitos mapas mensais de médias mensais de radiação solar global horizontal diária bem como um mapa da média anual de radiação solar global horizontal diária. Observou-se que o modelo de Ångström–Prescott apresenta bons resultados quando se dispõe apenas da insolação Os mapas serão úteis para a pesquisa e implementação de sistemas empregando Energia Solar no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Finalmente, a principal conclusão é a de que modelos de correlações obtidos com dados de cada mês e produzindo parâmetros mensais são mais adequados do que um único modelo de correlação com parâmetros de validade anual utilizado nas estimativas mensais.

Maracatus Solar e Reis de Paus: tradição e modernidade no carnaval de rua em Fortaleza

This is an ethnographic and comparative study of the Maracatus Solar (2006) and Reis de Paus (1960), whose aim was to verify what is ancient and traditional in the new maracatu practiced by the guild Solar and conversely, what is new or modern in the old maracatu ritualized by guild Reis de Paus. It is worth noting that through this case study it is also intended to ethnographically observe and better understand the processes of ruptures and continuities between modernization and tradition, and the relationship between the global and the local. The communication system, the dancing, the music, the costumes and the loas (letters) were analyzed using the technique of participant observation as well as secondary materials such as newspapers, blogs and magazines. The interviews were open, non-directive, but recorded to facilitate understanding the speech of revelers. The research has shown that all the symbolic elements of aesthetic expression of the maracatu are permeated by clashes of historical contexts and of political representation, which, in another instance, also enunciates a fight of micro-community resistance regarding the renewal process and the social development that plague modern megalopolis. It is In this interim, between modernity and tradition that today it can be spoken about the existence of hybrid identity in the maracatu regarding a context mediated by the overall above mentioned values and customs specific of the new generations. However, one can not deny that the forms of negotiations with modernity also require the establishment of a link with the specific singularity of a popular culture that is not excluded, but also should not get invaded by the idea of authenticity. Therefore, performing this study was above all an opportunity to understand also the community life in the city outskirts, understanding society, culture and everyday social relations maintained between humans that produce and make it all happen. The Solar and Reis de Paus do not join in opposition between themselves nor by their similarity. What is most striking among them is the renewal of a tradition that reinvents itself in the form of popular representation across the street parade

Viabilidade de uso de um fogão solar para cocção de alimentos com parábola refletora fabricada em compósito que utiliza fibras de Carnaúba e resina Ortoftálica

Presents a composite formed by orthophthalic resin and fiber loading of carnauba straw. The fibers were first dried in direct sun exposure and subsequently ground into fodder for the reduction in size. Various formulations of the composite were preliminarily tested by choosing the one presenting the best processability in applying the mold. The composite produced is used for the manufacture of a parabolic surface subsequently coated with mirror segments, flexible plastic, for reflecting the solar rays incident on it. The reflective parable represents the main element of the solar cooker that works with the concentration of sunlight and has dimensions of 1.14 m in diameter and area of 1.0 m². Manufacturing processes and assembly of solar cooker concentration produced are presented. The results of tests for cooking and baking various foods, including rice, pasta, beans, cake, cassava, shrimp, beef, breaded demonstrating the competitiveness of solar cooker studied with other stoves already manufactured and tested in Brazil are presented and in the world. It was also demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed composite for Prototypes manufacture of solar and other structures that do not require great efforts resistance