Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Cotton resistance to ramulose and variability of Colletotrichum gossypii f. sp. cephalosporioides

Four cultivars and 21 lines of cotton were evaluated for resistance to ramulose (Colletotrichum gossypii f. sp. cephalosporioides) in a field where the disease is endemic. The seeds of each genotype were planted in 5 x 5 m plots with three replications. The lines CNPA 94-101 and 'CNPA Precoce 2'were used as standard susceptible and resistant references, respectively. The disease incidence (DI) was calculated from the proportion of diseased plants in the plot. The disease index (DIn) was calculated from the disease severity using a 1 to 9 scale, and was evaluated at weekly intervals starting 107 days after emergence. The data collected was used to calculate the area under disease progress curve (AUDPC). In general, the DIn increased linearly with time and varied from 20.0 to 57.1 and AUDPC from 567 to 1627 among the genotypes which could be clustered in to two distinct groups. The susceptible group contained two cultivars and nine lines and the resistant group contained one cultivar and 12 lines. The relationship between disease index and evaluation times was linear for the 25 genotypes tested. The line CNPA 94-101, used as susceptible standard, was the most susceptible with an average DI = 83.4, DIn = 57.1 and AUDPC = 1627.7. The line CNPA 96-08 with DI = 37.8, DIn = 20.0 and AUDPC = 567.7 was the most resistant one. Among the commercial cultivars 'IAC 22' was the most susceptible and 'CNPA Precoce 2', used as resistant standard was the most resistant. The variability in virulence of the pathogen was studied by spray inoculating nine genotypes with conidial suspensions (10(5)/mL) of either of the 10 isolates. The disease severity was evaluated 30 days later using a scale of 1 to 5. The virulence of the isolate was expressed by DIn. All the isolates were highly virulent but their virulence avaried for several genotypes and could be clustered in two distinct groups of less and more virulent isolates. The isolate MTRM 14 from Mato Grosso was the least virulent while Minas Gerais was the most virulent, with DIn of 6.36 and 46.47, respectively. In this experiment the line HR 102 and the cultivar 'Antares' were the most resistant ones with DIns of 18.32 and 19.14, respectively.

Health-related quality of life in school children: validation of instrument, child self assessment, parent-proxy assessment and school nursing documentation of health check-ups

The aims of this study were to validate an international Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQL) instrument, to describe child self and parent-proxy assessed HRQL at child age 10 to 12 and to compare child self assessments with parent-proxy assessments and school nursing documentation. The study is part of the Schools on the Move –research project. In phase one, a cross-cultural translation and validation process was performed to develop a Finnish version of Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 (PedsQL™ 4.0). The process included a two-way translation, cognitive interviews (children n=7, parents n=5) and a survey (children n=1097, parents n=999). In phase two, baseline and follow-up surveys (children n=986, parents n=710) were conducted to describe and compare the child self and parent-proxy assessed HRQL in school children between the ages 10 and 12. Phase three included two separate data, school nurse documented patient records (children n=270) and a survey (children n=986). The relation between child self assessed HRQL and school nursing documentation was evaluated. Validity and reliability of the Finnish version of PedsQL™ 4.0 was good (Child Self Report α=0.91, Parent-Proxy Report α=0.88). Children reported lower HRQL scores at the emotional (mean 76/80) than the physical (mean 85/89) health domains and significantly lower scores at the age of 10 than 12 (dMean=4, p=<0.001). Agreement between child self and parent-proxy assessment was fragile (r=0,4, p=<0.001) but increased as the child grew from age 10 to 12 years. At health check-ups, school nurses documented frequently children’s physical health, such as growth (97%) and posture (98/99%) but seldom emotional issues, such as mood (2/7%). The PedsQLTM 4.0 is a valid instrument to assess HRQL in Finnish school children although future research is recommended. Children’s emotional wellbeing needs future attention. HRQL scores increase during ages between childhood and adolescence. Concordance between child self and parent-proxy assessed HRQL is low. School nursing documentation, related to child health check-ups, is not in line with child self assessed HRQL and emotional issues need more attention.

Identification, assessment and ordering of concepts for agro-energy planning and possibilities of spatial analysis

ABSTRACT The present study aims to present the main concepts of the sugarcane straw to energy planning. Throughout the study, the subject is contextualized highlighting broader aspects of sustainability, which is considered the main driver towards agro-energy modernization. Concerning sugarcane straw, we first evaluated its availability regarding technical and economic aspects, and then it summarized the straw production chain for energy supply purposes. As a proposal to support agro-energy planning, it is presented some spatial tools that have been barely used in the Brazilian energy planning context so far. Therefore, working on straw to electricity associated with supply chain basis, we developed a conceptual model to spatially assess this bioenergy system. Using the model proposed, it is described the whole supply chain at state level, which accounted the potential of a single mill to explore straw, as well as main costs associated with straw acquisition, investments on the straw recovery routes and electricity transmission. Bearing these concepts in mind, it is fully believed that spatial analysis can bring important information for agro-energy action plans.

Importance of bone assessment and prevention of osteoporotic fracture in patients with prostate cancer in the gonadotropic hormone analogues use

The antiandrogenic therapy (ADT) for prostate cancer represents an additional risk factor for the development of osteoporosis and fragility fractures. Still, bone health of patients on ADT is often not evaluated. After literature research we found that simple preventive measures can prevent bone loss in these patients, resulting in more cost-effective solutions to the public health system and family when compared to the treatment of fractures.

Comparison of the homeostasis model assessment and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index with data from forearm metabolic studies for the in vivo assessment of insulin sensitivity

The present study was designed to compare the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) with data from forearm metabolic studies of healthy individuals and of subjects in various pathological states. Fifty-five healthy individuals and 112 patients in various pathological states, including type 2 diabetes mellitus, essential hypertension and others, were studied after an overnight fast and for 3 h after ingestion of 75 g of glucose, by HOMA, QUICKI and the forearm technique to estimate muscle uptake of glucose combined with indirect calorimetry (oxidative and non-oxidative glucose metabolism). The patients showed increased HOMA (1.88 ± 0.14 vs 1.13 ± 0.10 pmol/l x mmol/l) and insulin/glucose (I/G) index (1.058.9 ± 340.9 vs 518.6 ± 70.7 pmol/l x (mg/100 ml forearm)-1), and decreased QUICKI (0.36 ± 0.004 vs 0.39 ± 0.006 (µU/ml + mg/dl)-1) compared with the healthy individuals. Analysis of the data for the group as a whole (patients and healthy individuals) showed that the estimate of insulin resistance by HOMA was correlated with data obtained in the forearm metabolic studies (glucose uptake: r = -0.16, P = 0.04; non-oxidative glucose metabolism: r = -0.20. P = 0.01, and I/G index: r = 0.17, P = 0.03). The comparison of QUICKI with data of the forearm metabolic studies showed significant correlation between QUICKI and non-oxidative glucose metabolism (r = 0.17, P = 0.03) or I/G index (r = -0.37, P < 0.0001). The HOMA and QUICKI are good estimates of insulin sensitivity as data derived from forearm metabolic studies involving direct measurements of insulin action on muscle glucose metabolism.

Pediatric pain: prevalence, assessment, and management in a teaching hospital

The goal of this study was to examine the prevalence, assessment and management of pediatric pain in a public teaching hospital. The study sample consisted of 121 inpatients (70 infants, 36 children, and 15 adolescents), their families, 40 physicians, and 43 nurses. All participants were interviewed except infants and children who could not communicate due to their clinical status. The interview included open-ended questions concerning the inpatients’ pain symptoms during the 24 h preceding data collection, as well as pain assessment and pharmacological/non-pharmacological management of pain. The data were obtained from 100% of the eligible inpatients. Thirty-four children/adolescents (28%) answered the questionnaire and for the other 72% (unable to communicate), the family/health professional caregivers reported pain. Among these 34 persons, 20 children/adolescents reported pain, 68% of whom reported that they received pharmacological intervention for pain relief. Eighty-two family caregivers were available on the day of data collection. Of these, 40 family caregivers (49%) had observed their child’s pain response. In addition, 74% reported that the inpatients received pharmacological management. Physicians reported that only 38% of the inpatients exhibited pain signs, which were predominantly acute pain detected during clinical procedures. They reported that 66% of patients received pharmacological intervention. The nurses reported pain signs in 50% of the inpatients, which were detected during clinical procedures. The nurses reported that pain was managed in 78% of inpatients by using pharmacological and/or non-pharmacological interventions. The findings provide evidence of the high prevalence of pain in pediatric inpatients and the under-recognition of pain by health professionals.

External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

The development, assessment, and implementation of an evaluation of the EMPOWER Program at shelters for abused women /

The development, assessment, and implementation of a program evaluation instrument was carried out to evaluate the impact and efficacy of the EMPOWER Program. This intervention was created to educate residents at a shelter for abused women with an anticipated outcome of prevention. Participants included the staff and residents at 2 shelters in Southern Ontario. Client pre, post and follow-up measures were obtained and analyzed statistically and using keyword content analysis. A single staff measure was obtained and summarized using keyword content analysis. Qualitative results were suggestive of important change in participants. All women in the post and follow-up measures believed their participation in the EMPOWER Program provided them with the knowledge, skills, and confidence to avoid abusive relationships in the fliture. This transformational impact was repeatedly expressed in both resident and staff feedback. Limitations of this research, as well as suggestions for future study were discussed.

Show me, help me, let me : supporting teachers' changing conceptions of reading assessment and reading instruction

This qualitative inquiry used case study methodology to explore the change processes of 3 primary-grade teachers throughout their participation in 7 -month professional learning initiative focused on reading assessment and instruction. Participants took part in semimonthly inquiry-based professional learning community sessions, as well as concurrent individualized classroom-based literacy coaching. Each participant's experiences were first analyzed as a single case study, followed by cross-case analyses. While their patterns of professional growth differed, findings documented how all participants altered their understandings of the roles and relevancy of individual components of reading instruction (e.g., comprehension, decoding) and instructional approaches to scaffold students' growth (e.g., levelled text, strategy instruction), and experienced some form of conceptual change. Factors identified as affecting their change processes included; motivation, professional knowledge, professional beliefs (self-efficacy and theoretical orientation), resources (e.g., time, support), differentiated professional learning with associated goal-setting, and uncontrollable influences, with the affect of each factor compounded by interaction with the others. Comparison of participants' experiences to the Cognitive-Affective Model of Conceptual Change (CAMCC) and the Interconnected Model of Teacher Professional Growth (IMTPG) demonstrated the applicability of using both conceptual models, with the IMTPG providing macrolevel insights over time and the CAMCC microlevel insights at each change intervaL Recommendations include the provision of differentiated teacher professional learning opportunities, as well as research documenting the effects of teacher mentorship programs and the professional growth of teacher educators. ii

Plant rhizosphere specificity and variability in the insect and plant adhesins, Madl and Mad2, within the genus Metarhizium suggest plant adaptation as an evolutionary force

Metarhizium is a soil-inhabiting fungus currently used as a biological control agent against various insect species, and research efforts are typically focused on its ability to kill insects. In section 1, we tested the hypothesis that species of Metarhizium are not randomly distributed in soils but show plant rhizosphere-specific associations. Results indicated an association of three Metarhizium species (Metarhizium robertsii, M. brunneum and M. guizhouense) with the rhizosphere of certain types of plant species. M. robertsii was the only species that was found associated with grass roots, suggesting a possible exclusion of M. brunneum and M. guizhouense, which was supported by in vitro experiments with grass root exudate. M. guizhouense and M. brunneum only associated with wildflower rhizosphere when co-occurring with M. robertsii. With the exception of these co-occurrences, M. guizhouense was found to associate exclusively with the rhizosphere of tree species, while M. brunneum was found to associate exclusively with the rhizosphere of shrubs and trees. These associations demonstrate that different species of Metarhizium associate with specific plant types. In section 2, we explored the variation in the insect adhesin, Madl, and the plant adhesin, Mad2, in fourteen isolates of Metarhizium representing seven different species. Analysis of the transcriptional elements within the Mad2 promoter region revealed variable STRE, PDS, degenerative TATA box, and TATA box-like regions. Phylogenetic analysis of 5' EF-Ia, which is used for species identification, as well as Madl and Mad2 sequences demonstrated that the Mad2 phylogeny is more congruent with 5' EF-1a than Madl. This suggests Mad2 has diverged among Metarhizium lineages, contributing to clade- and species-specific variation. While other abiotic and biotic factors cannot be excluded in contributing to divergence, it appears that plant associations have been the driving factor causing divergence among Metarhizium species.

Untangling the Organizational Ambiguities in Supply Chain Risk Recognition, Assessment, and Response: The Role of Network Embeddedness

In this thesis, I focus on supply chain risk related ambiguity, which represents the ambiguities firms exhibit in recognizing, assessing, and responding to supply chain disruptions. I, primarily, argue that ambiguities associated with recognizing and responding to supply chain risk are information gathering and processing problems. Guided by the theoretical perspective of bounded rationality, I propose a typology of supply chain risk related ambiguity with four distinct dimensions. I, also, argue that the major contributor to risk related ambiguity is often the environment, specifically the web of suppliers. Hence, I focus on the characteristics of these supplier networks to examine the sources of ambiguity. I define three distinct elements of network embeddedness – relational, structural, and positional embeddedness – and argue that the ambiguity faced by a firm in appropriately identifying the nature or impacts of major disruptions is a function of these network properties. Based on a survey of large North American manufacturing firms, I found that the extent of the relational ties a firm has and its position in the network are significantly related to supply chain risk related ambiguity. However, this study did not provide any significant support for the hypothesized relationship between structural embeddedness and ambiguity. My research contributes towards the study of supply chain disruptions by using the idea of bounded rationality to understand supply chain risk related ambiguity and by providing evidence that the structure of supply chain networks influences the organizational understanding of and responses to supply chain disruptions.