Impact of a 1755-like tsunami in Huelva, Spain

Coastal areas are highly exposed to natural hazards associated with the sea. In all cases where there is historical evidence for devastating tsunamis, as is the case of the southern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula, there is a need for quantitative hazard tsunami assessment to support spatial planning. Also, local authorities must be able to act towards the population protection in a preemptive way, to inform 'what to do' and 'where to go' and in an alarm, to make people aware of the incoming danger. With this in mind, we investigated the inundation extent, run-up and water depths, of a 1755-like event on the region of Huelva, located on the Spanish southwestern coast, one of the regions that was affected in the past by several high energy events, as proved by historical documents and sedimentological data. Modelling was made with a slightly modified version of the COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) code. Sensitivity tests were performed for a single source in order to understand the relevance and influence of the source parameters in the inundation extent and the fundamental impact parameters. We show that a 1755-like event will have a dramatic impact in a large area close to Huelva inundating an area between 82 and 92 km(2) and reaching maximum run-up around 5 m. In this sense our results show that small variations on the characteristics of the tsunami source are not too significant for the impact assessment. We show that the maximum flow depth and the maximum run-up increase with the average slip on the source, while the strike of the fault is not a critical factor as Huelva is significantly far away from the potential sources identified up to now. We also show that the maximum flow depth within the inundated area is very dependent on the tidal level, while maximum run-up is less affected, as a consequence of the complex morphology of the area.

Toplological Entropy in the Syncronization of Piecewise Linear and Monotone Maps. Coupled Duffing Oscillators

In this paper is presented a relationship between the synchronization and the topological entropy. We obtain the values for the coupling parameter, in terms of the topological entropy, to achieve synchronization of two unidirectional and bidirectional coupled piecewise linear maps. In addition, we prove a result that relates the synchronizability of two m-modal maps with the synchronizability of two conjugated piecewise linear maps. An application to the unidirectional and bidirectional coupled identical chaotic Duffing equations is given. We discuss the complete synchronization of two identical double-well Duffing oscillators, from the point of view of symbolic dynamics. Working with Poincare cross-sections and the return maps associated, the synchronization of the two oscillators, in terms of the coupling strength, is characterized.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a 1755-like tsunami

In this study, we present 10 m resolution tsunami flooding maps for Lisbon downtown and the Tagus estuary. To compute these maps we use the present bathymetry and topographic maps and a reasonable estimate for the maximum credible tsunami scenario. Tsunami modeling was made with a non-linear shallow water model using four levels of nested grids. The tsunami flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The results show that, even today, in spite of the significant morphologic changes in the city river front after the 1755 earthquake, a similar event would cause tsunami flow depths larger than one meter in a large area along the Tagus estuary and Lisbon downtown. Other areas along the estuary with a high population density would also be strongly affected. The impact of the tide on the extent of tsunami inundation is discussed, due to the large amplitude range of the tide in Lisbon, and compared with the historical descriptions of the 1755 event. The results presented here can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Lisbon; this identification comprises a key element of the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system.

Paleomagnetic study of the Messejana Plasencia dyke (Portugal and Spain): A lower Jurassic paleopole for the Iberian plate

The only Iberian lower Jurassic palcomagnetic pole come from the "Central Atlantic Magmatic Province"-related Messejana Plasencia dyke, but the age and origin of its remanence have been a matter of discussion. With the aim of solving this uncertainty, and to go further into a better understanding of its emplacement and other possible tectonic features, a systematic paleomagnetic investigation of 40 sites (625 specimens) distributed all along the 530 kin of the Messejana Plasencia dyke has been carried out. Rock magnetic experiments indicate PSD low Ti-titanomagnetite and magnetite as the minerals carrying the NRM. The samples were mostly thermally demagnetized. Most sites exhibit a characteristic remanent component of normal polarity with the exception of two sites, where samples with reversed polarities have been observed. The paleomagnetic pole derived from a total of 35 valid sites is representative of the whole structure of the dyke, and statistically well defined, with values of PLa = 70.4 degrees N, PLo = 237.6 degrees E, K= 47.9 and A(95) = 3.5 degrees. Paleomagnetic data indicates that: (i) there is no evidence of a Cretaceous remagnetization in the dyke, as it was suggested; (ii) most of the dyke had a brief emplacement time; furthermore, two dyke intrusion events separated in time from it by at least 10,000 y have been detected; (iii) the high grouping of the VGPs directions suggests no important tectonic perturbations of the whole structure of the dyke since its intrusion time; (iv) the pole derived from this study is a good quality lower Jurassic paleopole for the Iberian plate; and (v) the Messejana Plasencia dyke paleopole for the Iberian plate is also in agreement with quality-selected European and North American lower Jurassic paleopoles and the magnetic anomalies data sets that are available for rotate them to Iberia.

Shareholder wealth creation in response to announcements of acquisitions of unlisted firms: Evidence from Spain

We investigate shareholder value creation of Spanish listed firms in response to announcements of acquisitions of unlisted companies and compare this experience to the purchase of listed firms over the period 1991–2006. Similar to foreign markets, acquirers of listed targets earn insignificant average abnormal returns, whereas acquirers of unlisted targets gain significant positive average abnormal returns. When we relate these results to company and transaction characteristics our findings diverge from those reported in the literature for other foreign markets, as our evidence suggests that the listing status effect is mainly associated with the fact that unlisted firms tend to be smaller and lesser–known firms, and thus suffer from a lack of competition in the market for corporate control. Consequently, the payment of lower premiums and the possibility of diversifying shareholders’ portfolios lead to unlisted firm acquisitions being viewed as value–orientated transactions.

The US actuarial balance model for the pay-as-you-go system and its application to Spain

The aim of this paper is to formulate an approximation of the US actuarial balance model and apply it to the Spanish public retirement pension system under various scenarios in order to determine a consistent indicator of the system's financial state comparable to those used by the most advanced social security systems. This will enable us to answer the question as to whether there is any justification for reforming the pension system in Spain. This type of actuarial balance uses projections to show future challenges to the financial side of the pension system deriving basically from ageing, the projected increase in longevity and fluctuations in economic activity. If one is compiled periodically it can provide various indicators to help depoliticize the management of the pay-as-you-go system by bringing the planning horizons of politicians and the system itself closer together.

Individual pension information: Recommendations for the case of Spain based on the experiences of other countries

The aim of this paper is to establish some basic guidelines to help draft the information letter sent to individual contributors should it be decided to use this model in the Spanish public pension system. With this end in mind and basing our work on the experiences of the most advanced countries in the field and the pioneering papers by Jackson (2005), Larsson et al. (2008) and Sunden (2009), we look into the concept of “individual pension information” and identify its most relevant characteristics. We then give a detailed description of two models, those in the United States and Sweden, and in particular look at how they are structured, what aspects could be improved and what their limitations are. Finally we make some recommendations of special interest for designing the model for Spain.

In permanent transit: discourses and maps of the intercultural experience

Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto

Genus and Braid Index Associated to Sequences of Renormalizable Lorenz Maps

We describe the Lorenz links generated by renormalizable Lorenz maps with reducible kneading invariant (K(f)(-), = K(f)(+)) = (X, Y) * (S, W) in terms of the links corresponding to each factor. This gives one new kind of operation that permits us to generate new knots and links from the ones corresponding to the factors of the *-product. Using this result we obtain explicit formulas for the genus and the braid index of this renormalizable Lorenz knots and links. Then we obtain explicit formulas for sequences of these invariants, associated to sequences of renormalizable Lorenz maps with kneading invariant (X, Y) * (S,W)*(n), concluding that both grow exponentially. This is specially relevant, since it is known that topological entropy is constant on the archipelagoes of renormalization.

Extended-spectrum β-lactamases from the North of Portugal in the boundaries to Spain: emergence of high resistance to 4th generation cephalosporins

During the past 15 years, emergence and dissemination of third-generation cephalosporins resistance in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae became a serious problem worldwide, due to the production of extended-spectrum-β-lactamases (ESBLs). The aim of this study was to investigate among the presence of ESBL-producing enterobacteria among Portuguese clinical isolates nearby Spain, to investigate the antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and to compare the two countries. The β-lactamases genes, blaTEM, blaSHV and blaCTX-M were detected by molecular methods. Among the ESBL-producing isolates it was found extraordinary levels (98.9%) of resistance to the fourth-generation cephalosporin Cefepime. These findings point to the need of reevaluate the definition of ESBL.

Seismic imaging of the western Iberian crust using ambient noise: Boundaries and internal structure of the Iberian Massif

We present new Rayleigh-wave dispersion maps of the western Iberian Peninsula for periods between 8 and 30 s, obtained from correlations of seismic ambient noise, following the recent increase in seismic broadband network density in Portugal and Spain. Group velocities have been computed for each station pair using the empirical Green's functions generated by cross-correlating one-day-length seismic ambient-noise records. The resulting high-path density allows us to obtain lateral variations of the group velocities as a function of period in cells of 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees with an unprecedented resolution. As a result we were able to address some of the unknowns regarding the lithospheric structure beneath SW Iberia. The dispersion maps allow the imaging of the major structural units, namely the Iberian Massif, and the Lusitanian and Algarve Meso-Cenozoic basins. The Cadiz Gulf/Gibraltar Strait area corresponds to a strong low-velocity anomaly, which can be followed to the largest period inverted, although slightly shifted to the east at longer periods. Within the Iberian Massif, second-order perturbations in the group velocities are consistent with the transitions between tectonic units composing the massif. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of biomonitoring and instrumental techniques to assess the air quality in an industrial area located in the coastal of Central Asturias, Spain

Throughout the world, epidemiological studies were established to examine the relationship between air pollution and mortality rates and adverse respiratory health effects. However, despite the years of discussion the correlation between adverse health effects and atmospheric pollution remains controversial, partly because these studies are frequently restricted to small and well-monitored areas. Monitoring air pollution is complex due to the large spatial and temporal variations of pollution phenomena, the high costs of recording instruments, and the low sampling density of a purely instrumental approach. Therefore, together with the traditional instrumental monitoring, bioindication techniques allow for the mapping of pollution effects over wide areas with a high sampling density. In this study, instrumental and biomonitoring techniques were integrated to support an epidemiological study that will be developed in an industrial area located in Gijon in the coastal of central Asturias, Spain. Three main objectives were proposed to (i) analyze temporal patterns of PM10 concentrations in order to apportion emissions sources, (ii) investigate spatial patterns of lichen conductivity to identify the impact of the studied industrial area in air quality, and (iii) establish relationships amongst lichen conductivity with some site-specific characteristics. Samples of the epiphytic lichen Parmelia sulcata were transplanted in a grid of 18 by 20 km with an industrial area in the center. Lichens were exposed for a 5-mo period starting in April 2010. After exposure, lichen samples were soaked in 18-MΩ water aimed at determination of water electrical conductivity and, consequently, lichen vitality and cell damage. A marked decreasing gradient of lichens conductivity relative to distance from the emitting sources was observed. Transplants from a sampling site proximal to the industrial area reached values 10-fold higher than levels far from it. This finding showed that lichens reacted physiologically in the polluted industrial area as evidenced by increased conductivity correlated to contamination level. The integration of temporal PM10 measurements and analysis of wind direction corroborated the importance of this industrialized region for air quality measurements and identified the relevance of traffic for the urban area.

Mapping stability : real rational maps of degree zero

In memory of our beloved Professor José Rodrigues Santos de Sousa Ramos (1948-2007), who João Cabral, one of the authors of this paper, had the honor of being his student between 2000 and 2006, we wrote this paper following the research by experimentation, using the new technologies to capture a new insight about a problem, as him so much love to do it. His passion was to create new relations between different fields of mathematics. He was a builder of bridges of knowledge, encouraging the birth of new ways to understand this science. One of the areas that Sousa Ramos researched was the iteration of maps and the description of its behavior, using the symbolic dynamics. So, in this issue of this journal, honoring his memory, we use experimental results to find some stable regions of a specific family of real rational maps, the ones that he worked with João Cabral. In this paper we describe a parameter space (a,b) to the real rational maps fa,b(x) = (x2 −a)/(x2 −b), using some tools of dynamical systems, as the study of the critical point orbit and Lyapunov exponents. We give some results regarding the stability of these family of maps when we iterate it, specially the ones connected to the order 3 of iteration. We hope that our results would help to understand better the behavior of these maps, preparing the ground to a more efficient use of the Kneading Theory on these family of maps, using symbolic dynamics.

Arrow plot and CA maps on microarray preprocessing methods

Microarray allow to monitoring simultaneously thousands of genes, where the abundance of the transcripts under a same experimental condition at the same time can be quantified. Among various available array technologies, double channel cDNA microarray experiments have arisen in numerous technical protocols associated to genomic studies, which is the focus of this work. Microarray experiments involve many steps and each one can affect the quality of raw data. Background correction and normalization are preprocessing techniques to clean and correct the raw data when undesirable fluctuations arise from technical factors. Several recent studies showed that there is no preprocessing strategy that outperforms others in all circumstances and thus it seems difficult to provide general recommendations. In this work, it is proposed to use exploratory techniques to visualize the effects of preprocessing methods on statistical analysis of cancer two-channel microarray data sets, where the cancer types (classes) are known. For selecting differential expressed genes the arrow plot was used and the graph of profiles resultant from the correspondence analysis for visualizing the results. It was used 6 background methods and 6 normalization methods, performing 36 pre-processing methods and it was analyzed in a published cDNA microarray database (Liver) available at http://genome-www5.stanford.edu/ which microarrays were already classified by cancer type. All statistical analyses were performed using the R statistical software.