THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Concerted HO2 elimination from alpha-Aminoalkylperoxyl free radicals : Experimental and theoretical evidence from the gas phase NH2 center dot CHCO2- + O-2 reaction

We have investigated the gas-phase reaction of the alpha-aminoacetate (glycyl) radical anion (NH2(sic)CHCO2-) with O-2 using ion trap mass spectrometry, quantum chemistry, and statistical reaction rate theory. This radical is found to undergo a remarkably rapid reaction with O-2 to form the hydroperoxyl radical (HO2(sic)) and an even-electron imine (NHCHCO2-), with experiments and master equation simulations revealing that reaction proceeds at the ion molecule collision rate. This reaction is facilitated by a low-energy concerted HO2(sic) elimination mechanism in the NH2CH(OO(sic))CO2- peroxyl radical. These findings can explain the widely observed free-radical-mediated oxidation of simple amino acids to amides plus alpha-keto acids (their imine hydrolysis products). This work also suggests that imines will be the main intermediates in the atmospheric oxidation of primary and secondary amines, including amine carbon capture solvents such as 2-aminoethanol (commonly known as monoethanolamine, or MEA), in a process that avoids the ozone-promoting conversion of (sic)NO to (sic)NO2 commonly encountered in peroxyl radical chemistry.

Reactions of the hydroperoxide anion with dimethyl methylphosphonate in an ion trap mass spectrometer : evidence for a gas phase alpha-effect

The gas phase degradation reactions of the chemical warfare agent (CWA) simulant, dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP), with the hydroperoxide anion (HOO(-)) were investigated using a modified quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer. The HOO(-) anion reacts readily with neutral DMMP forming two significant product ions at m/z 109 and m/z 123. The major reaction pathways correspond to (i) the nucleophilic substitution at carbon to form \[CH(3)P(O)(OCH(3))O](-) (m/z 109) in a highly exothermic process and (ii) exothermic proton transfer. The branching ratios of the two reaction pathways, 89% and 11% respectively, indicate that the former reaction is significantly faster than the latter. This is in contrast to the trend for the methoxide anion with DMMP, where proton transfer dominates. The difference in the observed reactivities of the HOO(-) and CH(3)O(-) anions can be considered as evidence for an a-effect in the gas phase and is supported by electronic structure calculations at the B3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ//B3LYP/6-31+G(d) level of theory that indicate the S(N)2(carbon) process has an activation energy 7.8 kJ mol(-1) lower for HOO(-) as compared to CH(3)O(-). A similar alpha-effect was calculated for nucleophilic addition-elimination at phosphorus, but this process an important step in the perhydrolysis degradation of CWAs in solution - was not observed to occur with DMMP in the gas phase. A theoretical investigation revealed that all processes are energetically accessible with negative activation energies. However, comparison of the relative Arrhenius pre-exponential factors indicate that substitution at phosphorus is not kinetically competitive with respect to the S(N)2(carbon) and deprotonation processes.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Ge/Si quantum dot formation from non-uniform cluster fluxes

The controlled growth of ultra-small Ge/Si quantum dot (QD) nuclei (≈1 nm) suitable for the synthesis of uniform nanopatterns with high surface coverage, is simulated using atom-only and size non-uniform cluster fluxes. It is found that seed nuclei of more uniform sizes are formed when clusters of non-uniform size are deposited. This counter-intuitive result is explained via adatom-nanocluster interactions on Si(100) surfaces. Our results are supported by experimental data on the geometric characteristics of QD patterns synthesized by nanocluster deposition. This is followed by a description of the role of plasmas as non-uniform cluster sources and the impact on surface dynamics. The technique challenges conventional growth modes and is promising for deterministic synthesis of nanodot arrays.

Suppression of cluster ions during particle formation events in the atmosphere

Cluster ions and charged and neutral nanoparticle concentrations were monitored using a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer (NAIS) over a period of one year in Brisbane, Australia. The study yielded 242 complete days of usable data, of which particle formation events were observed on 101 days. Small, intermediate and large ion concentrations were evaluated in real time. In the diurnal cycle, small ion concentration was highest during the second half of the night while large ion concentrations were a maximum during the day. The small ion concentration showed a decrease when the large ion concentration increased. Particle formation was generally followed by a peak in the intermediate ion concentration. The rate of increase of intermediate ions was used as the criteria for identifying particle formation events. Such events were followed by a period of growth to larger sizes and usually occurred between 8 am and 2 pm. Particle formation events were found to be related to the wind direction. The gaseous precursors for the production of secondary particles in the urban environment of Brisbane have been shown to be ammonia and sulfuric acid. During these events, the nanoparticle number concentrations in the size range 1.6 to 42 nm, which were normally lower than 1x104 cm-3, often exceeded 5x104 cm-3 with occasional values over 1x105 cm-3. Cluster ions generally occurred in number concentrations between 300 and 600 cm-3 but decreased significantly to about 200 cm-3 during particle formation events. This was accompanied by an increase in the large ion concentration. We calculated the fraction of nanoparticles that were charged and investigated the occurrence of possible overcharging during particle formation events. Overcharging is defined as the condition where the charged fraction of particles is higher than in charge equilibrium. This can occur when cluster ions attach to neutral particles in the atmosphere, giving rise to larger concentrations of charged particles in the short term. Ion-induced nucleation is one of the mechanisms of particle formation in the atmosphere, and overcharging has previously been considered as an indicator of this process. The possible role of ions in particle formation was investigated.

Ethnic cluster lifecycle : a case of Chinese restaurants in South East Queensland

Immigrant entrepreneurs tend to start businesses within their ethnic enclave (EE), as it is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan, Alba, & Stults, 2003). Ethnic enclaves can be seen as a form of geographic cluster, China Towns are exemplar EEs, easily identified by the clustering of Chinese restaurants and other ethnic businesses in one central location. Studies on EE thus far have neglected the life cycles stages of EE and its impact on the business experiences of the entrepreneurs. In this paper, we track the formation, growth and decline of an EE. We argue that EE is a special industrial cluster and as such it follows the growth conditions proposed by the cluster life cycle theory (Menzel & Fornahl, 2009). We report a mixed method study of Chinese Restaurants in South East Queensland. Based on multiple sources of data, we concluded that changes in government policies leading to a sharp increase of immigrant numbers from a distinctive culture group can lead to the initiation and growth of the EE. Continuous incoming of new immigrants and increase competition within the cluster mark the mature stage of the EE, making the growth condition more favourable “inside” the cluster. A decline in new immigrants from the same ethnic group and the increased competition within the EE may eventually lead to the decline of such an industrial cluster, thus providing more favorable condition for growth of business outside the cluster.

Pathological excretion patterns of urinary proteins in miners highly exposed to dinitrotoluene

A cohort of 161 underground miners who had been highly exposed to dinitrotoluene (DNT) in the copper-mining industry of the former German Democratic Republic was reinvestigated for signs of subclinical renal damage. The study included a screening of urinary proteins excreted by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE), and quantitations of the specific urinary proteins α 1-microglobulin and glutathione-S-transferase α (GST α) as biomarkers for damage of the proximal tubule and glutathione-S-transferase π (GST π) for damage of the distal tubule. The exposures were categorized semiquantitatively (low, medium, high, and very high), according to the type and duration of professional contact with DNT. A straight dose-dependence of pathological protein excretion patterns with the semiquantitative ranking of DNT exposure was seen. Most of the previously reported cancer cases of the urinary tract, especially those in the higher exposed groups, were confined to pathological urinary protein excretion patterns. The damage from DNT was directed toward the tubular system. In many cases, the appearance of Tamm-Horsfall protein, a 105-kD protein marker, was noted. Data on the biomarkers α 1-microglobulin, GST α, and GST π consistently demonstrated a dose-dependent increase in tubular damage, which confirmed the results of screening by SDS-PAGE and clearly indicated a nephrotoxic effect of DNT under the given conditions of exposure. Within the cluster of cancer patients observed among the DNT-exposed workers, only in exceptional cases were normal biomarker excretions found.

Analysis of the extreme diversity of salivary alpha-amylase isoforms generated by physiological proteolysis using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

Saliva is a crucial biofluid for oral health and is also of increasing importance as a non-invasive source of disease biomarkers. Salivary alpha-amylase is an abundant protein in saliva, and changes in amylase expression have been previously associated with a variety of diseases and conditions. Salivary alpha-amylase is subject to a high diversity of post-translational modifications, including physiological proteolysis in the oral cavity. Here we developed methodology for rapid sample preparation and non-targeted LC-ESI-MS/MS analysis of saliva from healthy subjects and observed an extreme diversity of alpha-amylase proteolytic isoforms. Our results emphasize the importance of consideration of post-translational events such as proteolysis in proteomic studies, biomarker discovery and validation, particularly in saliva. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plant diversity predicts beta but not alpha diversity of soil microbes across grasslands worldwide

Aboveground–belowground interactions exert critical controls on the composition and function of terrestrial ecosystems, yet the fundamental relationships between plant diversity and soil microbial diversity remain elusive. Theory predicts predominantly positive associations but tests within single sites have shown variable relationships, and associations between plant and microbial diversity across broad spatial scales remain largely unexplored. We compared the diversity of plant, bacterial, archaeal and fungal communities in one hundred and forty-five 1 m2 plots across 25 temperate grassland sites from four continents. Across sites, the plant alpha diversity patterns were poorly related to those observed for any soil microbial group. However, plant beta diversity (compositional dissimilarity between sites) was significantly correlated with the beta diversity of bacterial and fungal communities, even after controlling for environmental factors. Thus, across a global range of temperate grasslands, plant diversity can predict patterns in the composition of soil microbial communities, but not patterns in alpha diversity.

Charged particles and cluster ions produced during cooking activities

Previous studies showed that a significant number of the particles present in indoor air are generated by cooking activities, and measured particle concentrations and exposures have been used to estimate the related human dose. The dose evaluation can be affected by the particle charge level which is usually not considered in particle deposition models. To this purpose, in this paper we show, for the very first time, the electric charge of particles generated during cooking activities and thus extending the interest on particle charging characterization to indoor micro-environments, so far essentially focused on outdoors. Particle number, together with positive and negative cluster ion concentrations, was monitored using a condensation particle counter and two air ion counters, respectively, during different cooking events. Positively-charged particle distribution fractions during gas combustion, bacon grilling, and eggplant grilling events were measured by two Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer spectrometers, used with and without a neutralizer. Finally, a Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer was used to measure the charge specific particle distributions of bacon and eggplant grilling experiments, selecting particles of 30, 50, 80 and 100 nm in mobility diameter. The total fraction of positively-charged particles was 4.0%, 7.9%, and 5.6% for gas combustion, bacon grilling, and eggplant grilling events, respectively, then lower than other typical outdoor combustion-generated particles.

Suppression of cluster ions during rapidly increasing particle number concentration events in the environment

We show that the cluster ion concentration (CIC) in the atmosphere is significantly suppressed during events that involve rapid increases in particle number concentration (PNC). Using a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer, we investigated changes in CIC during three types of particle enhancement processes – new particle formation, a bushfire episode and an intense pyrotechnic display. In all three cases, the total CIC decreased with increasing PNC, with the rate of decrease being greater for negative CIC than positive. We attribute this to the greater mobility, and hence the higher attachment coefficient, of negative ions over positive ions in the air. During the pyrotechnic display, the rapid increase in PNC was sufficient to reduce the CIC of both polarities to zero. At the height of the display, the negative CIC stayed at zero for a full 10 min. Although the PNCs were not significantly different, the CIC during new particle formation did not decrease as much as during the bushfire episode and the pyrotechnic display. We suggest that the rate of increase of PNC, together with particle size, also play important roles in suppressing CIC in the atmosphere.

Segmenting Australian high school students : two-step cluster analysis preliminary results

A one size fits all approach dominates alcohol programs in school settings (Botvin et al., 2007), which may limit program effectiveness (Snyder et al., 2004). Programs tailored to the meet the needs and wants of adolescent groups may be more effective. Limited attention has been directed towards employing a full segmentation process. Where segmentation has been examined, the focus has remained on socio-demographic characteristics and more recently psychographic variables (Mathijssen et al., 2012). The current study aimed to identify whether the addition of behaviour could be used to identify segments. Variables included attitudes towards binge drinking (α = 0.86), behavioral intentions’ (α = 0.97), perceived behavioral control (PBC), injunctive norms (α = 0.94); descriptive norms (α = 0.87), knowledge and reported behaviour. Data was collected from five schools, n = 625 (32.96% girls). Two-Step cluster analysis produced a sample (n = 625) with a silhouette measure of cohesion and separation of 0.4. The intention measure and whether students reported previously consuming alcohol were the most distinguishing characteristics - predictor importance scores of (1.0). A four segment solution emerged. The first segment (“Male abstainers” – 37.2%) featured the highest knowledge score (M: 5.9) along with the lowest-risk drinking attitudes and intentions to drink excessively. Segment 2 (“At risk drinkers” - 11.2%) were characterised by their high-risk attitudes and high-risk drinking intentions. Injunctive (M: 4.1) and descriptive norms (M: 4.9) may indicate a social environment where drinking is the norm. Segment 3 (”Female abstainers” – 25.9%) represents young girls, who have the lowest-risk attitudes and low intentions to drink excessively. The fourth and final segment (boys = 67.4%) (“Moderate drinkers” – 25.7%) all report previously drinking alcohol yet their attitudes and intentions towards excessive alcohol consumption are lower than other segments. Segmentation focuses on identifying groups of individuals who feature similar characteristics. The current study illustrates the importance of including reported behaviour in addition to psychographic and demographic characteristics to identify unique groups to inform intervention planning and design. Key messages The principle of segmentation has received limited attention in the context of school-based alcohol education programs. This research identified four segments amongst 14-16 year high school students, each of which can be targeted with a unique, tailored program to meet the needs and wants of the target audience.

The O-specific polysaccharide structure and biosynthetic gene cluster of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis serotype O:11

In the Yersinia pseudotuberculosis serotyping scheme, 21 serotypes are present originating from about 30 different O-factors distributed within the species. With regard to the chemical structures of lipopolysaccharides (LPSs) and the genetic basis of their biosynthesis, a number, but not all, of Y. pseudotuberculosis strains representing different serotypes have been investigated. In order to present an overall picture of the relationship between genetics and structures, we have been working on the genetics and structures of various Y. pseudotuberculosis O-specific polysaccharides (OPSs). Here, we present a structural and genetic analysis of the Y. pseudotuberculosis serotype O:11 OPS. Our results showed that this OPS structure has the same backbone as that of Y. pseudotuberculosis O:1b, but with a 6d-l-Altf side-branch instead of Parf. The 3′ end of the gene cluster is the same as that for O:1b and has the genes for synthesis of the backbone and for processing the completed repeat unit. The 5′ end has genes for synthesis of 6d-l-Altf and its transfer to the repeating unit backbone. The pathway for the synthesis of the 6d-l-Altf appears to be different from that for 6d-l-Altp in Y. enterocolitica O:3. The chemical structure of the O:11 repeating unit is [Figure]