Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

A collaborative multi-agent based conference planner application using web and grid services

Distributed Collaborative Computing services have taken over centralized computing platforms allowing the development of distributed collaborative user applications. These applications enable people and computers to work together more productively. Multi-Agent System (MAS) has emerged as a distributed collaborative environment which allows a number of agents to cooperate and interact with each other in a complex environment. We want to place our agents in problems whose solutions require the collation and fusion of information, knowledge or data from distributed and autonomous information sources. In this paper we present the design and implementation of an agent based conference planner application that uses collaborative effort of agents which function continuously and autonomously in a particular environment. The application also enables the collaborative use of services deployed geographically wide in different technologies i.e. Software Agents, Grid computing and Web service. The premise of the application is that it allows autonomous agents interacting with web and grid services to plan a conference as a proxy to their owners (humans). © 2005 IEEE.

An agent based adaptive bandwidth allocation scheme for multimedia applications

Bandwidth allocation for multimedia applications in case of network congestion and failure poses technical challenges due to bursty and delay sensitive nature of the applications. The growth of multimedia services on Internet and the development of agent technology have made us to investigate new techniques for resolving the bandwidth issues in multimedia communications. Agent technology is emerging as a flexible promising solution for network resource management and QoS (Quality of Service) control in a distributed environment. In this paper, we propose an adaptive bandwidth allocation scheme for multimedia applications by deploying the static and mobile agents. It is a run-time allocation scheme that functions at the network nodes. This technique adaptively finds an alternate patchup route for every congested/failed link and reallocates the bandwidth for the affected multimedia applications. The designed method has been tested (analytical and simulation)with various network sizes and conditions. The results are presented to assess the performance and effectiveness of the approach. This work also demonstrates some of the benefits of the agent based schemes in providing flexibility, adaptability, software reusability, and maintainability. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation design in information systems research: example of studying it value cocreation with NK model

As an emerging research method that has showed promising potential in several research disciplines, simulation received relatively few attention in information systems research. This paper illustrates a framework for employing simulation to study IT value cocreation. Although previous studies identified factors driving IT value cocreation, its underlying process remains unclear. Simulation can address this limitation through exploring such underlying process with computational experiments. The simulation framework in this paper is based on an extended NK model. Agent-based modeling is employed as the theoretical basis for the NK model extensions.

An agent based adaptive bandwidth allocation scheme for multimedia applications

Bandwidth allocation for multimedia applications in case of network congestion and failure poses technical challenges due to bursty and delay sensitive nature of the applications. The growth of multimedia services on Internet and the development of agent technology have made us to investigate new techniques for resolving the bandwidth issues in multimedia communications. Agent technology is emerging as a flexible promising solution for network resource management and QoS (Quality of Service) control in a distributed environment. In this paper, we propose an adaptive bandwidth allocation scheme for multimedia applications by deploying the static and mobile agents. It is a run-time allocation scheme that functions at the network nodes. This technique adaptively finds an alternate patchup route for every congested/failed link and reallocates the bandwidth for the affected multimedia applications. The designed method has been tested (analytical and simulation)with various network sizes and conditions. The results are presented to assess the performance and effectiveness of the approach. This work also demonstrates some of the benefits of the agent based schemes in providing flexibility, adaptability, software reusability, and maintainability. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adsorption-nucleation/growth based model for electrochemical phase formation and Avrami ansatz for a multicomponent competitive growth process

The existing models describing electrochemical phase formation involving both adsorption and a nucleation/growth process are modified. The limiting cases leading to the existing models are discussed. The characteristic features of the potentiostatic transients are presented. A generalization of the Avrami ansatz is given for two or more competitive irreversibly growing phases.

A new Fuzzy-LOGIC based Model for Chlorophyll-a in Pulicat Lagoon, India

Coastal lagoons are complex ecosystems exhibiting a high degree of non-linearity in the distribution and exchange of nutrients dissolved in the water column due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. This factor has a direct influence on the concentrations of chlorophyll-a, an indicator of the primary productivity in the water bodies as lakes and lagoons. Moreover the seasonal variability in the characteristics of large-scale basins further contributes to the uncertainties in the data on the physico-chemical and biological characteristics of the lagoons. Considering the above, modelling the distributions of the nutrients with respect to the chlorophyll-concentrations, hence requires an effective approach which will appropriately account for the non-linearity of the ecosystem as well as the uncertainties in the available data. In the present investigation, fuzzy logic was used to develop a new model of the primary production for Pulicat lagoon, Southeast coast of India. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the concentrations of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon was highly influenced by the dissolved concentrations of nitrate, nitrites and phosphorous to different extents over different seasons and years. A high degree of agreement was obtained between the actual field values and those predicted by the new fuzzy model (d = 0.881 to 0.788) for the years 2005 and 2006, illustrating the efficiency of the model in predicting the values of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon.

Molecular Dynamics Investigation of Structure and Transport in the K2O-2SiO2 System Using a Partial Charge Based Model Potential

Potassium disilicate glass and melt have been investigated by using a new partial charge based potential model in which nonbridging oxygens are differentiated from bridging oxygens by their charges. The model reproduces the structural data pertaining to the coordination polyhedra around potassium and the various bond angle distributions excellently. The dynamics of the glass has been studied by using space and time correlation functions. It is found that K ions migrate by a diffusive mechanism in the melt and by hops below the glass transition temperature. They are also found to migrate largely through nonbridging oxygenrich sites in the silicate matrix, thus providing support to the predictions of the modified random network model.

Molecular dynamics Investigation of structure and transport in the K2O-2SiO2 system using a partial charge based model potential

Potassium disilicate glass and melt have been investigated by using anew partial charge based potential model in which nonbridging oxygens are differentiated from bridging oxygens by their charges. The model reproduces the structural data pertaining to the coordination polyhedra around potassium and the various bond angle distributions excellently. The dynamics of the glass has been studied by using space and time correlation functions. It is found that K ions migrate by a diffusive mechanism in the melt and by hops below the glass transition temperature. They are also found to migrate largely through nonbridging oxygen-rich sites in the silicate matrix, thus providing support to the predictions of the modified random network model.

Solubilization of n-decane into n-decyl-polyoxyethylene surfactants: A cavity forming free energy based model

The present paper reports the results of a theoretical study of the forces and factors driving the solubilization of n-alkane solubilizates into the micellar core of some non-ionic surfactants, based on a micellar model which includes the cavity forming free energy as a component of micellization. The solubilizate is n-decane and the non-ionic surfactants considered are n-decyl-polyoxyethylene surfactants. The extent of solubilization, i.e. the mole fraction of the solubilizate within the core has been calculated. The results indicate that the incorporated solubilizate has more translational and rotational degrees of freedom as compared to those of the tail parts of the surfactants present in the core. This drives the total free energy of aggregation after solubilization into a more favourable direction. The results are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

S-nets: A Petri net based model for performance evaluation of real-time scheduling algorithms

A new class of nets, called S-nets, is introduced for the performance analysis of scheduling algorithms used in real-time systems Deterministic timed Petri nets do not adequately model the scheduling of resources encountered in real-time systems, and need to be augmented with resource places and signal places, and a scheduler block, to facilitate the modeling of scheduling algorithms. The tokens are colored, and the transition firing rules are suitably modified. Further, the concept of transition folding is used, to get intuitively simple models of multiframe real-time systems. Two generic performance measures, called �load index� and �balance index,� which characterize the resource utilization and the uniformity of workload distribution, respectively, are defined. The utility of S-nets for evaluating heuristic-based scheduling schemes is illustrated by considering three heuristics for real-time scheduling. S-nets are useful in tuning the hardware configuration and the underlying scheduling policy, so that the system utilization is maximized, and the workload distribution among the computing resources is balanced.

Carbonization of solvent and capping agent based enhancement in the stabilization of cobalt nanoparticles and their magnetic study

We describe a hybrid synthetic protocol, the solvated metal atom dispersion (SMAD) method, for the synthesis and stabilization of monodisperse amorphous cobalt nanoparticles. By employing an optimized ratio of a weakly coordinating solvent and a capping agent monodisperse colloidal cobalt nanoparticles (2 +/- 0.5 nm) have been prepared by the SMAD method. However, the as-prepared samples were found to be oxidatively unstable which was elucidated by their magnetic studies. Oxidative stability in our case was achieved via a pyrolysis process that led to the decomposition of the organic solvent and the capping agent resulting in the formation of carbon encapsulated cobalt nanoparticles which was confirmed by Raman spectroscopy. Controlled annealing at different temperatures led to the phase transformation of metallic cobalt from the hcp to fcc phase. The magnetic behaviour varies with the phase and the particle size; especially, the coercivity of nanoparticles exhibited strong dependence on the phase transformation of cobalt. The high saturation magnetization close to that of the bulk value was achieved in the case of the annealed samples. In addition to detailed structural and morphological characterization, the results of thermal and magnetic studies are also presented.

Mobile agent based TCP attacker identification in MANET using the traffic history (MAITH)

TCP attacks are the major problem faced by Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs) due to its limited network and host resources. Attacker traceback is a promising solution which allows a victim to identify the exact location of the attacker and hence enables the victim to take proper countermeasure near attack origins, for forensics and to discourage attackers from launching the attacks. However, attacker traceback in MANET is a challenging problem due to dynamic network topology, limited network and host resources such as memory, bandwidth and battery life. We introduce a novel method of TCP attacker Identification in MANET using the Traffic History - MAITH. Based on the comprehensive evaluation based on simulations, we showed that MAITH can successfully track down the attacker under diverse mobile multi-hop network environment with low communication, computation, and memory overhead.

The evolution of complexity in social organization-A model using dominance-subordinate behavior in two social wasp species

Dominance and subordinate behaviors are important ingredients in the social organizations of group living animals. Behavioral observations on the two eusocial species Ropalidia marginata and Ropalidia cyathiformis suggest varying complexities in their social systems. The queen of R. cyathiformis is an aggressive individual who usually holds the top position in the dominance hierarchy although she does not necessarily show the maximum number of acts of dominance, while the R. marginata queen rarely shows aggression and usually does not hold the top position in the dominance hierarchy of her colony. In R. marginata, more workers are involved in dominance-subordinate interactions as compared to R. cyathiformis. These differences are reflected in the distribution of dominance-subordinate interactions among the hierarchically ranked individuals in both the species. The percentage of dominance interactions decreases gradually with hierarchical ranks in R. marginata while in R. cyathiformis it first increases and then decreases. We use an agent-based model to investigate the underlying mechanism that could give rise to the observed patterns for both the species. The model assumes, besides some non-interacting individuals, the interaction probabilities of the agents depend on their pre-differentiated winning abilities. Our simulations show that if the queen takes up a strategy of being involved in a moderate number of dominance interactions, one could get the pattern similar to R. cyathiformis, while taking up the strategy of very low interactions by the queen could lead to the pattern of R. marginata. We infer that both the species follow a common interaction pattern, while the differences in their social organization are due to the slight changes in queen as well as worker strategies. These changes in strategies are expected to accompany the evolution of more complex societies from simpler ones.