Somali State Failure: Players, Incentives and Institutions

In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

Cosmic Clowns : Convention, Invention, and Inversion in the Yaqui Easter Ritual

Cosmic Clowns: Convention, Invention, and Inversion in the Yaqui Easter Ritual is an ethnographic study of masked clown figures called Chapayekas. They represent Judas and the Roman soldiers in the Passion play that forms the narrative core of the Easter ritual of the Yaquis, an indigenous group in Sonora, Mexico. The study looks at how the Chapayeka is created as a ritual figure, how their performance is constructed, and what the part of the clown is in the dynamics of the ritual. The material was gathered over three periods of anthropological fieldwork in Cócorit, Sonora during Easter in 2004, 2006 and 2007. The Chapayeka masks portray foreigners, animals, mythological figures, and even figures from television and movies. They combine two kinds of performance: they perform set, conventional actions, and improvise and invent new ones. This creates dialectics of invention and convention that allow the figure to mediate between the ritual and its context and different kinds of beings within the Yaqui cosmology. The conventional side of their performance is a cycle of death and rebirth that is an inversion of the cycle of Jesus. Through invention, they separate themselves from the other performers and make themselves powerful. Alternation between the two modes enhances that power and brings it into the conventions of the ritual; ultimately the Chapayekas revitalize the entire ritual. The study finds that the clowns are extremely important to the continuity of both ritual and culture, as the combination of continuity and change, convention and invention, is what makes it possible to recreate the conventions of Yaqui culture as powerful and compelling in various contexts. Another factor is the prevalence of dialectical mediation, which relates concepts by defining them against each other as opposites, and makes it possible to cross a boundary while keeping it intact. Clowns embody and create dialectics to mediate boundaries while guarding against relativization, the disappearance of distinctions. The Chapayekas create and constitute boundaries between the self and other, microcosm and macrocosm, sacred and profane. The study argues that all clown and trickster figures are characterized by constantly alternating between invention and convention; this is what connects them to the collective and moral aspect of culture and, at the same time, makes them unpredictable and powerful. It is possible to do justice to the opposed aspects of these ambiguous and paradoxical figures by taking into account the different foundations and contextual effects of the different modes of symbolization.

Strategic planning for long-term financing of Pacific leatherback conservation and recovery:Proceedings of the Bellagio Sea Turtle Conservation Initiative, Terengganu, Malaysia; July 2007

On 17-20 July 2007, 45 experts on sea turtles, fisheries, conservation and finance from 10 countries convened at the Bellagio Sea Turtle Conservation Initiative workshop in Terengganu to focus on methods to save the imperiled Pacific leatherback from extinction. The group developed a strategic plan to guide the prioritization and long term financing of Pacific leatherback turtle conservation and recovery objectives. Participants identified critical conservation actions and agreed that a business plan is urgently needed to reverse the trajectory towards extinction of the Pacific leatherback. The conservation actions prioritized by the participants encompassed protecting nesting beaches including eggs and nesting females; reducing direct and indirect turtle take in coastal fisheries; and strengthening regional and sub-regional cooperation. The group committed to work together on fundraising and implementation of these urgent conservation actions. This report presents outputs and the plan that was produced from the workshop.

Morals in business organizations: an approach based on strategic value and strength for business management

[EN] In the last decades, the topic of business ethics has attracted great interest at the academic and professional levels. Nowadays business ethics is being increasingly implemented as a necessary discipline in universities’ study plans on business management. Moreover, its importance is also evident according to the worldwide increase of organizations and/or institutions that have implemented ethics systems. However, some approaches thoroughly do not consider the importance and the need of an ethical behaviour and are still guiding the actions and the way of thinking of many academics and professionals led to consider that the only responsibility of business is limited just to profit maximization.

Status and management of the sea cucumber fishery of La Grande Terre, New Caledonia

From October 2006 to May 2008, The WorldFish Center coordinated a ZoNéCo project to provide support to the Southern and Northern Provinces for decisions about how best to manage the sea cucumber fishery around La Grande Terre. We collected data during underwater population surveys, questionnaire-based interviews with fishers and processors, and landing catch surveys. A core aim was to furnish the Provinces with ‘ballpark’ estimates of the abundance and density of commercially important sea cucumbers on 50 lagoon and barrier reefs. Analysis and synthesis of the ecological and sociological data provide the basis for informed recommendations for fisheries management. Counts of trochus and giant clams on the reefs allow us to also describe the general status of those resources. We propose 13 recommendations for management actions and fishery regulations and advocate an adaptive management approach. This multidisciplinary study should serve as a useful template for assessing other fisheries, and we provide a series of generic ‘lessons learnt’ to aid future programmes. (PDF has 140 pages.)

Rapid recreation assessment: a tool to assess visitor use and associated impacts at coastal and marine protected areas

As more people discover coastal and marine protected areas as destinations for leisure-time pursuits, the task of managing coastal resources while providing opportunities for high quality visitor experiences becomes more challenging. Many human impacts occur at these sites; some are caused by recreation and leisure activities on-site, and others by activities such as agriculture, aquaculture, or residential and economic development in surrounding areas. Coastal management professionals are continually looking for effective ways to prevent or mitigate negative impacts of visitor use. (PDF contains 8 pages) Most coastal and marine protected area managers are challenged with balancing two competing goals—protection of natural and cultural resources and provision of opportunities for public use. In most cases, some level of compromise between the goals is necessary, where one goal constrains or “outweighs” the other. Often there is a lack of clear agreement about the priority of these competing goals. Consequently, while natural resource decisions should ultimately be science-based and objective, such decisions are frequently made under uncertainty, relying heavily upon professional judgment. These decisions are subject to a complex array of formal and informal drivers and constraints—data availability, timing, legal mandate, political will, diverse public opinion, and physical, human, and social capital. This paper highlights assessment, monitoring, and planning approaches useful to gauge existing resource and social conditions, determine feasibility of management actions, and record decision process steps to enhance defensibility. Examples are presented from pilot efforts conducted at the Rookery Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR) and Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in South Florida.

Environmental judgment in early childhood and its relationship with the understanding of the concept of living beings

The evidence collected concerning the biocentric judgment that young children express when evaluating human actions on the environment leads some scholars to suggest that an essential understanding of the notion of living beings should appear earlier than previously believed. This research project aims to study that assumption. To this end, young children’s choice when they are put in situation of having to compare and choose the most negative option between environmentally harmful actions and the breaking of social conventions are examined. Afterwards, the results are categorized in relation to those obtained from the study of children’s grasp of the distinction between living beings and inanimate entities. The data is analysed according to the individuals’ age and overall, it suggests a lack of relationship between environmental judgment and the understanding of the concept of living beings. The final results are discussed in keeping with recent research in the field of moral development that underscores the role that unconscious emotional processing plays in the individual’s normative judgment.

Descriptive set theory and the ergodic theory of countable groups

The primary focus of this thesis is on the interplay of descriptive set theory and the ergodic theory of group actions. This incorporates the study of turbulence and Borel reducibility on the one hand, and the theory of orbit equivalence and weak equivalence on the other. Chapter 2 is joint work with Clinton Conley and Alexander Kechris; we study measurable graph combinatorial invariants of group actions and employ the ultraproduct construction as a way of constructing various measure preserving actions with desirable properties. Chapter 3 is joint work with Lewis Bowen; we study the property MD of residually finite groups, and we prove a conjecture of Kechris by showing that under general hypotheses property MD is inherited by a group from one of its co-amenable subgroups. Chapter 4 is a study of weak equivalence. One of the main results answers a question of Abért and Elek by showing that within any free weak equivalence class the isomorphism relation does not admit classification by countable structures. The proof relies on affirming a conjecture of Ioana by showing that the product of a free action with a Bernoulli shift is weakly equivalent to the original action. Chapter 5 studies the relationship between mixing and freeness properties of measure preserving actions. Chapter 6 studies how approximation properties of ergodic actions and unitary representations are reflected group theoretically and also operator algebraically via a group's reduced C^*-algebra. Chapter 7 is an appendix which includes various results on mixing via filters and on Gaussian actions.

Panel discussion: U.S. EPA using modeling and ecosystem services to enhance coastal decision making

This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Geometric quantization and foliation reduction

A standard question in the study of geometric quantization is whether symplectic reduction interacts nicely with the quantized theory, and in particular whether “quantization commutes with reduction.” Guillemin and Sternberg first proposed this question, and answered it in the affirmative for the case of a free action of a compact Lie group on a compact Kähler manifold. Subsequent work has focused mainly on extending their proof to non-free actions and non-Kähler manifolds. For realistic physical examples, however, it is desirable to have a proof which also applies to non-compact symplectic manifolds.

In this thesis we give a proof of the quantization-reduction problem for general symplectic manifolds. This is accomplished by working in a particular wavefunction representation, associated with a polarization that is in some sense compatible with reduction. While the polarized sections described by Guillemin and Sternberg are nonzero on a dense subset of the Kähler manifold, the ones considered here are distributional, having support only on regions of the phase space associated with certain quantized, or “admissible”, values of momentum.

We first propose a reduction procedure for the prequantum geometric structures that “covers” symplectic reduction, and demonstrate how both symplectic and prequantum reduction can be viewed as examples of foliation reduction. Consistency of prequantum reduction imposes the above-mentioned admissibility conditions on the quantized momenta, which can be seen as analogues of the Bohr-Wilson-Sommerfeld conditions for completely integrable systems.

We then describe our reduction-compatible polarization, and demonstrate a one-to-one correspondence between polarized sections on the unreduced and reduced spaces.

Finally, we describe a factorization of the reduced prequantum bundle, suggested by the structure of the underlying reduced symplectic manifold. This in turn induces a factorization of the space of polarized sections that agrees with its usual decomposition by irreducible representations, and so proves that quantization and reduction do indeed commute in this context.

A significant omission from the proof is the construction of an inner product on the space of polarized sections, and a discussion of its behavior under reduction. In the concluding chapter of the thesis, we suggest some ideas for future work in this direction.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

How are Italian and Spanish cities tackling climate change? A local comparative study

27 p.

Neural and computational representations of decision variables

These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

Effects of suspended sediments on the development of eggs and larvae of striped bass and white perch

The possible ecological effects of suspended sediments are manifold. Briefly, suspended sediments may cause an increased surface for microorganism growth, fewer temperature fluctuations, chemical adsorption or absorption, blanketing, mechanical-abrasive actions, and light penetration reduction (Cairns, 1968). Sherk and Cronin (1970) have pointed out that the above effects have been little studied in the estuarine environment. The ecological effects of suspended sediments on fish eggs and larvae may be of prime importance t o the C and D Canal area, an important spawning and primary nursery area for a variety of estuary: e species (Johnson,1972). This section discusses the effects of suspended sediment on the eggs and larvae of striped bass and white perch.

Final Evaluation Memorandum: Strategies for Resolving Low Dissolved Oxygen and Methylmercury Events in Northern Suisun Marsh

The purpose of the project is to improve our understanding about best management practices that can be utilized on diked managed wetlands in Suisun Marsh for reducing the occurrence of low dissolved oxygen (DO) and high methylmercury (MeHg) events associated primarily with fall flood-up practices. Low DO events are of concern because they can lead to undue stress and even mortality of sensitive aquatic organisms. Elevated MeHg levels are of concern because MeHg is a neurotoxin that bio-magnifies up the food chain and can cause deleterious effects to higher trophic level consumers such as piscivorous fish, birds, and mammals (including humans). This study involved two years (2007-2008) of intensive field data collection at two managed wetland sites in northwest Suisun Marsh and their surrounding tidal sloughs, an area with prior documented low DO events. In addition, the study collected limited soils and water quality field data and mapped vegetation for three managed wetland sites in the central interior of Suisun Marsh, for the purpose of examining whether wetlands at other locations exhibit characteristics that could indicate potential for similar concerns. In Year 1 of the study, the objective was to identify the baseline conditions in the managed wetlands and determine which physical management conditions could be modified for Year 2 to reduce low DO and MeHg production issues most effectively. The objective of Year 2 was to evaluate the effectiveness of these modified management actions at reducing production of low DO and elevated MeHg conditions within the managed wetlands and to continue improving understanding of the underlying biogeochemical processes at play. This Final Evaluation Memorandum examined a total of 19 BMPs, 14 involving modified water management operations and the remaining five involving modified soil and vegetation management practices. Some of these BMPs were previously employed and others have not yet been tested. For each BMP this report assesses its efficacy in improving water quality conditions and potential conflicts with wetland management. It makes recommendations for further study (either feasibility assessments or field testing) and whether to consider for future use. Certain previously used BMPs were found to be important contributors to poor water quality conditions and their continued use is not recommended. Some BMPs that could improve water quality conditions appear difficult to implement in regards to compatibility with wetland management; these BMPs require further elaboration and feasibility assessment to determine whether they should be field tested. In practice for any given wetland, there is likely a combination of BMPs that would together have the greatest potential to address the low DO and high MeHg water quality concerns. Consequently, this report makes no sweeping recommendations applicable to large groups of wetlands but instead promotes a careful consideration of factors at each wetland or small groups of wetlands and from that assessment to apply the most effective suite of BMPs. This report also identifies a number of recommended future actions and studies. These recommendations are geared toward improving the process understanding of factors that promote low DO and high MeHg conditions, the extent of these problems in Suisun Marsh, the regulatory basis for the DO standards for a large estuarine marsh, the economics of BMPs, and alternative approaches to BMPs on diked managed wetlands that may address the water quality issues. The most important of these recommendations is that future BMP implementation should be carried out within the context of rigorous scientific evaluation so as to gain the maximum improvement in how to manage these water quality issues in the diked managed wetlands of Suisun Marsh.