Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts

Current methods for initialising coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts often rely on the use of separate atmosphere and ocean analyses, the combination of which can leave the coupled system imbalanced at the beginning of the forecast, potentially accelerating the development of errors. Using a series of experiments with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled system, the magnitude and extent of these so-called initialisation shocks is quantified, and their impact on forecast skill measured. It is found that forecasts initialised by separate ocean and atmospheric analyses do exhibit initialisation shocks in lower atmospheric temperature, when compared to forecasts initialised using a coupled data assimilation method. These shocks result in as much as a doubling of root-mean-square error on the first day of the forecast in some regions, and in increases that are sustained for the duration of the 10-day forecasts performed here. However, the impacts of this choice of initialisation on forecast skill, assessed using independent datasets, were found to be negligible, at least over the limited period studied. Larger initialisation shocks are found to follow a change in either the atmospheric or ocean model component between the analysis and forecast phases: changes in the ocean component can lead to sea surface temperature shocks of more than 0.5K in some equatorial regions during the first day of the forecast. Implications for the development of coupled forecast systems, particularly with respect to coupled data assimilation methods, are discussed.

Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

MAGNETIC FIELD EFFECTS NEAR THE LAUNCHING REGION OF ASTROPHYSICAL JETS

One of the fundamental properties of astrophysical magnetic fields is their ability to change topology through reconnection and in doing so, to release magnetic energy, sometimes violently. In this work, we review recent results on the role of magnetic reconnection and associated heating and particle acceleration in jet/accretion disk systems, namely young stellar objects (YSOs), microquasars, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs).

Cross-entropy optimizer: a new tool to study precession in astrophysical jets

Evidence of jet precession in many galactic and extragalactic sources has been reported in the literature. Much of this evidence is based on studies of the kinematics of the jet knots, which depends on the correct identification of the components to determine their respective proper motions and position angles on the plane of the sky. Identification problems related to fitting procedures, as well as observations poorly sampled in time, may influence the follow-up of the components in time, which consequently might contribute to a misinterpretation of the data. In order to deal with these limitations, we introduce a very powerful statistical tool to analyse jet precession: the cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization. Only based on the raw data of the jet components (right ascension and declination offsets from the core), the cross-entropy method searches for the precession model parameters that better represent the data. In this work we present a large number of tests to validate this technique, using synthetic precessing jets built from a given set of precession parameters. With the aim of recovering these parameters, we applied the cross-entropy method to our precession model, varying exhaustively the quantities associated with the method. Our results have shown that even in the most challenging tests, the cross-entropy method was able to find the correct parameters within a 1 per cent level. Even for a non-precessing jet, our optimization method could point out successfully the lack of precession.

Local star formation triggered by supernova shocks in magnetized diffuse neutral clouds

In this work, considering the impact of a supernova remnant (SNR) with a neutral magnetized cloud we derived analytically a set of conditions that are favourable for driving gravitational instability in the cloud and thus star formation. Using these conditions, we have built diagrams of the SNR radius, R(SNR), versus the initial cloud density, n(c), that constrain a domain in the parameter space where star formation is allowed. This work is an extension to previous study performed without considering magnetic fields (Melioli et al. 2006, hereafter Paper I). The diagrams are also tested with fully three-dimensional MHD radiative cooling simulations involving a SNR and a self-gravitating cloud and we find that the numerical analysis is consistent with the results predicted by the diagrams. While the inclusion of a homogeneous magnetic field approximately perpendicular to the impact velocity of the SNR with an intensity similar to 1 mu G within the cloud results only a small shrinking of the star formation zone in the diagram relative to that without magnetic field, a larger magnetic field (similar to 10 mu G) causes a significant shrinking, as expected. Though derived from simple analytical considerations these diagrams provide a useful tool for identifying sites where star formation could be triggered by the impact of a supernova blast wave. Applications of them to a few regions of our own Galaxy (e.g. the large CO shell in the direction of Cassiopeia, and the Edge Cloud 2 in the direction of the Scorpious constellation) have revealed that star formation in those sites could have been triggered by shock waves from SNRs for specific values of the initial neutral cloud density and the SNR radius. Finally, we have evaluated the effective star formation efficiency for this sort of interaction and found that it is generally smaller than the observed values in our own Galaxy (SFE similar to 0.01-0.3). This result is consistent with previous work in the literature and also suggests that the mechanism presently investigated, though very powerful to drive structure formation, supersonic turbulence and eventually, local star formation, does not seem to be sufficient to drive global star formation in normal star-forming galaxies, not even when the magnetic field in the neutral clouds is neglected.

Mapping low- and high-density clouds in astrophysical nebulae by imaging forbidden line emission

Emission line ratios have been essential for determining physical parameters such as gas temperature and density in astrophysical gaseous nebulae. With the advent of panoramic spectroscopic devices, images of regions with emission lines related to these physical parameters can, in principle, also be produced. We show that, with observations from modern instruments, it is possible to transform images taken from density-sensitive forbidden lines into images of emission from high- and low-density clouds by applying a transformation matrix. In order to achieve this, images of the pairs of density-sensitive lines as well as the adjacent continuum have to be observed and combined. We have computed the critical densities for a series of pairs of lines in the infrared, optical, ultraviolet and X-rays bands, and calculated the pair line intensity ratios in the high- and low-density limit using a four- and five-level atom approximation. In order to illustrate the method, we applied it to Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) Integral Field Unit (GMOS-IFU) data of two galactic nuclei. We conclude that this method provides new information of astrophysical interest, especially for mapping low- and high-density clouds; for this reason, we call it `the ld/hd imaging method`.

High-frequency extensions of magnetorotational instability in astrophysical plasmas

High-frequency extensions of magnetorotational instability driven by the Velikhov effect beyond the standard magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) regime are studied. The existence of the well-known Hall regime and a new electron inertia regime is demonstrated. The electron inertia regime is realized for a lesser plasma magnetization of rotating plasma than that in the Hall regime. It includes the subregime of nonmagnetized electrons. It is shown that, in contrast to the standard MHD regime and the Hall regime, magnetorotational instability in this subregime can be driven only at positive values of dln Omega/dlnr, where Omega is the plasma rotation frequency and r is the radial coordinate. The permittivity of rotating plasma beyond the standard MHD regime, including both the Hall regime and the electron inertia regime, is calculated.

Radiative capture of nucleons at astrophysical energies with single-particle states

Radiative capture of nucleons at energies of astrophysical interest is one of the most important processes for nucleosynthesis. The nucleon capture can occur either by a compound nucleus reaction or by a direct process. The compound reaction cross sections are usually very small, especially for light nuclei. The direct capture proceeds either via the formation of a single-particle resonance or a non-resonant capture process. In this work we calculate radiative capture cross sections and astrophysical S-factors for nuclei in the mass region A < 20 using single-particle states. We carefully discuss the parameter fitting procedure adopted in the simplified two-body treatment of the capture process. Then we produce a detailed list of cases for which the model works well. Useful quantities, such as spectroscopic factors and asymptotic normalization coefficients, are obtained and compared to published data. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Astrophysical S factors for fusion reactions involving C, O, Ne, and Mg isotopes

Using the Sao Paulo potential and the barrier penetration formalism we have calculated the astrophysical factor S(E) for 946 fusion reactions involving stable and neutron-rich isotopes of C, O, Ne, and Mg for center-of-mass energies E varying from 2 to approximate to 18-30 MeV (covering the range below and above the Coulomb barrier). We have parameterized the energy dependence, S(E), by an accurate universal 9-parameter analytic expression and present tables of fit parameters for all the reactions. We also discuss the reduced 3-parameter version of our fit which is highly accurate at energies below the Coulomb barrier, and outline the procedure for calculating the reaction rates. The results can be easily converted to thermonuclear or pycnonuclear reaction rates to simulate various nuclear burning phenomena, in particular, stellar burning at high temperatures and nucleosynthesis in high density environments. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].

Indirect Study of the (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He Reactions at Astrophysical Energies via the Trojan Horse Method

The (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He reactions have been indirectly studied by means of the Trojan Horse Method applied to the quasi-free (2)H((3)He, p(3)H)(1)H (2)H((3)He, n(3)He)(1)H reaction at 18 MeV of beam energy. This is the first experiment where the spectator (here (1)H) has been detected in coincidence with the charged participant, avoiding the limitations of standard neutron detectors. The d - d relative energy has been measured from 1.5 MeV down to 2 keV, at center of mass angles from 40A degrees to 170A degrees. Indirect angular distributions are compared with the direct behaviour in the overlapping regions.

Do shocks permanently change output? : Local persistency in economic time series

While it is recognized that output fuctuations are highly persistent over certain range, less persistent results are also found around very long horizons (Conchrane, 1988), indicating the existence of local or temporary persistency. In this paper, we study time series with local persistency. A test for stationarity against locally persistent alternative is proposed. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistic are provided under both the null and the alternative hypothesis of local persistency. Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to study the power and size of the test. An empirical application reveals that many US real economic variables may exhibit local persistency.

The private memory of aggregate shocks

Em economias caracterizadas por choques agregados e privados, mostramos que a alocação ótima restrita pode depender de forma não-trivial dos choques agregados. Usando versões dos modelos de Atkeson e Lucas (1992) e Mirrlees (1971) de dois períodos, é mostrado que a alocação ótima apresenta memória com relação aos choques agregados mesmo eles sendo i.i.d. e independentes dos choques individuais, quando esses últimos choques não são totalmente persistentes. O fato de os choques terem efeitos persistentes na alocação mesmo sendo informação pública, foi primeiramente apresentado em Phelan (1994). Nossas simulações numéricas indicam que esse não é um resultado pontual: existe uma relação contínua entre persistência de tipos privados e memória do choque agregado.