Resolution of sharp fronts in the presence of model error in variational data assimilation

We show that the four-dimensional variational data assimilation method (4DVar) can be interpreted as a form of Tikhonov regularization, a very familiar method for solving ill-posed inverse problems. It is known from image restoration problems that L1-norm penalty regularization recovers sharp edges in the image more accurately than Tikhonov, or L2-norm, penalty regularization. We apply this idea from stationary inverse problems to 4DVar, a dynamical inverse problem, and give examples for an L1-norm penalty approach and a mixed total variation (TV) L1–L2-norm penalty approach. For problems with model error where sharp fronts are present and the background and observation error covariances are known, the mixed TV L1–L2-norm penalty performs better than either the L1-norm method or the strong constraint 4DVar (L2-norm)method. A strength of the mixed TV L1–L2-norm regularization is that in the case where a simplified form of the background error covariance matrix is used it produces a much more accurate analysis than 4DVar. The method thus has the potential in numerical weather prediction to overcome operational problems with poorly tuned background error covariance matrices.

Accelerating shrinkage of Patagonian glaciers from the Little Ice Age (∼AD 1870) to 2011

We used Little Ice Age (LIA) trimlines and moraines to assess changes in South American glaciers over the last ∼140 years. We determined the extent and length of 640 glaciers during the LIA (∼ AD 1870) and 626 glaciers (the remainder having entirely disappeared) in 1986, 2001 and 2011. The calculated reduction in glacierized area between the LIA and 2011 is 4131 km2 (15.4%), with 660 km2 (14.2%) being lost from the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI), 1643 km2 (11.4%) from the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) and 306 km2 (14.4%) from Cordillera Darwin. Latitude, size and terminal environment (calving or land-terminating) exert the greatest control on rates of shrinkage. Small, northerly, land-terminating glaciers shrank fastest. Annual rates of area loss increased dramatically after 2001 for mountain glaciers north of 52° S and the large icefields, with the NPI and SPI now shrinking at 9.4 km2 a–1 (0.23% a–1) and 20.5 km2 a–1 (0.15% a–1) respectively. The shrinkage of glaciers between 52° S and 54° S accelerated after 1986, and rates of shrinkage from 1986 to 2011 remained steady. Icefield outlet glaciers, isolated glaciers and ice caps south of 54° S shrank faster from 1986 to 2001 than they did from 2001 to 2011.

Rapid preconditioning of data for accelerating convex hull algorithms

Given a dataset of two-dimensional points in the plane with integer coordinates, the method proposed reduces a set of n points down to a set of s points s ≤ n, such that the convex hull on the set of s points is the same as the convex hull of the original set of n points. The method is O(n). It helps any convex hull algorithm run faster. The empirical analysis of a practical case shows a percentage reduction in points of over 98%, that is reflected as a faster computation with a speedup factor of at least 4.

Differences between the CME fronts tracked by an expert, an automated algorithm, and the Solar Stormwatch project

Observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft have enabled the compilation of several catalogues of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), each characterizing the propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. Three such catalogues are the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)-HI event list, the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, and, presented here, the J-tracker catalogue. Each catalogue uses a different method to characterize the location of CME fronts in the HI images: manual identification by an expert, the statistical reduction of the manual identifications of many citizen scientists, and an automated algorithm. We provide a quantitative comparison of the differences between these catalogues and techniques, using 51 CMEs common to each catalogue. The time-elongation profiles of these CME fronts are compared, as are the estimates of the CME kinematics derived from application of three widely used single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. The J-tracker and RAL-HI profiles are most similar, while the Solar Stormwatch profiles display a small systematic offset. Evidence is presented that these differences arise because the RAL-HI and J-tracker profiles follow the sunward edge of CME density enhancements, while Solar Stormwatch profiles track closer to the antisunward (leading) edge. We demonstrate that the method used to produce the time-elongation profile typically introduces more variability into the kinematic estimates than differences between the various single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. This has implications for the repeatability and robustness of these types of analyses, arguably especially so in the context of space weather forecasting, where it could make the results strongly dependent on the methods used by the forecaster.

Rossby wave propagation on potential vorticity fronts with finite width

The horizontal gradient of potential vorticity (PV) across the tropopause typically declines with lead time in global numerical weather forecasts and tends towards a steady value dependent on model resolution. This paper examines how spreading the tropopause PV contrast over a broader frontal zone affects the propagation of Rossby waves. The approach taken is to analyse Rossby waves on a PV front of finite width in a simple single-layer model. The dispersion relation for linear Rossby waves on a PV front of infinitesimal width is well known; here an approximate correction is derived for the case of a finite width front, valid in the limit that the front is narrow compared to the zonal wavelength. Broadening the front causes a decrease in both the jet speed and the ability of waves to propagate upstream. The contribution of these changes to Rossby wave phase speeds cancel at leading order. At second order the decrease in jet speed dominates, meaning phase speeds are slower on broader PV fronts. This asymptotic phase speed result is shown to hold for a wide class of single-layer dynamics with a varying range of PV inversion operators. The phase speed dependence on frontal width is verified by numerical simulations and also shown to be robust at finite wave amplitude, and estimates are made for the error in Rossby wave propagation speeds due to the PV gradient error present in numerical weather forecast models.

An accelerating cosmology without dark energy

The negative pressure accompanying gravitationally-induced particle creation can lead to a cold dark matter (CDM) dominated, accelerating Universe (Lima et al. 1996 [1]) without requiring the presence of dark energy or a cosmological constant. In a recent study, Lima et al. 2008 [2] (LSS) demonstrated that particle creation driven cosmological models are capable of accounting for the SNIa observations [3] of the recent transition from a decelerating to an accelerating Universe, without the need for Dark Energy. Here we consider a class of such models where the particle creation rate is assumed to be of the form Gamma = beta H + gamma H(0), where H is the Hubble parameter and H(0) is its present value. The evolution of such models is tested at low redshift by the latest SNe Ia data provided by the Union compilation [4] and at high redshift using the value of z(eq), the redshift of the epoch of matter - radiation equality, inferred from the WMAP constraints on the early Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect [5]. Since the contributions of baryons and radiation were ignored in the work of LSS, we include them in our study of this class of models. The parameters of these more realistic models with continuous creation of CDM are constrained at widely-separated epochs (z(eq) approximate to 3000 and z approximate to 0) in the evolution of the Universe. The comparison of the parameter values, {beta, gamma}, determined at these different epochs reveals a tension between the values favored by the high redshift CMB constraint on z(eq) from the ISW and those which follow from the low redshift SNIa data, posing a potential challenge to this class of models. While for beta = 0 this conflict is only at less than or similar to 2 sigma, it worsens as beta increases from zero.

CDM accelerating cosmology as an alternative to Lambda CDM model

A new accelerating cosmology driven only by baryons plus cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed in the framework of general relativity. In this scenario the present accelerating stage of the Universe is powered by the negative pressure describing the gravitationally-induced particle production of cold dark matter particles. This kind of scenario has only one free parameter and the differential equation governing the evolution of the scale factor is exactly the same of the Lambda CDM model. For a spatially flat Universe, as predicted by inflation (Omega(dm) + Omega(baryon) = 1), it is found that the effectively observed matter density parameter is Omega(meff) = 1 - alpha, where alpha is the constant parameter specifying the CDM particle creation rate. The supernovae test based on the Union data (2008) requires alpha similar to 0.71 so that Omega(meff) similar to 0.29 as independently derived from weak gravitational lensing, the large scale structure and other complementary observations.

EFFECT OF COLD FRONTS ON THE BENTHIC MACROFAUNA OF EXPOSED SANDY BEACHES WITH CONTRASTING MORPHODYNAMICS

The aim of this study was to determine the short-term environmental changes caused by the simultaneous passage of a high energy event on two sandy beaches with different morphodynamic states and their influence on the richness, abundance and distribution of the benthic macrofauna. Two microtidal exposed sandy beaches with contrasting morphodynamics were simultaneously sampled before, during and after the passage of two cold fronts in Santa Catarina. The reflective beach showed a higher susceptibility to the increase in wave energy produced by the passage of cold fronts and was characterized by rapid and intense erosive processes in addition to a capacity for rapid restoration of the beach profile. As regards the dissipative beach, erosive processes operated more slowly and progressively, and it was characterized further by a reduced capacity for the recovery of its sub-aerial profile. Although the intensity of the environmental changes was distinct as between the morphodynamic extremes, changes in the composition, richness and abundance of macrobenthos induced by cold fronts were not evident for either of the beaches studied. On the other hand, alterations in the distribution pattern of the macrofauna were observed on the two beaches and were related to variations in sea level, position of the swash zone and moisture gradient, suggesting that short-term accommodations in the spatial structure of the macrobenthos occur in response to changes in environmental conditions in accordance with the temporal dynamics characteristic of each morphodynamic state.

Infrastructure: accelerating Brazil’s growth

O Brasil se consolida como uma das maiores economias do mundo e se transformou em um país majoritariamente urbano. Acompanhando esse movimento, enormes investimentos foram feitos em infraestrutura nos últimos anos, o que vem se intensificando também em função dos grandes eventos, como a Copa 2014 e as Olimpíadas 2016. Esta edição do “Cadernos FGV Projetos”, publicada por ocasião do III Brazil Infrastructure Investment Forum, nos Estados Unidos, e dedicada ao tema Infraestrutura, traz algumas das experiências bem-sucedidas que vêm contribuindo para a modernização do país. De saneamento à construção civil, passando por transporte, telecomunicações, logística, investimentos, modelos de gestão e contratação, até os desafios de cidades e municípios e as principais necessidades do setor, diversos temas foram abordados. A publicação será lançada em inglês durante o seminário e posteriormente em português.

Accelerating solutions of perfect fluid hydrodynamics for initial energy density and life-time measurements in heavy ion collisions

A new class of accelerating, exact, explicit and simple solutions of relativistic hydrodynamics is presented. Since these new solutions yield a finite rapidity distribution, they lead to an advanced estimate of the initial energy density and life-time of high energy heavy ion collisions. Accelerating solutions are also given for spherical expansions in arbitrary number of spatial dimensions.

ACCELERATING ITERATIVE ALGORITHMS FOR SYMMETRICAL LINEAR COMPLEMENTARITY-PROBLEMS

We propose a method for accelerating iterative algorithms for solving symmetric linear complementarity problems. The method consists in performing a one-dimensional optimization in the direction generated by a splitting method even for non-descent directions. We give strong convergence proofs and present numerical experiments that justify using this acceleration.

Effects of temperature and of the addition of accelerating and retarding agents on the kinetics of hydration of tricalcium silicate

The formation of calcium silicate hydrates (C-S-H) during the hydration of tricalcium silicate (C3S) in pure water and in water solutions containing 1% CaCl2 (accelerator) and 0.01% saccharose (retarder) was studied by small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). SAXS measurements were performed under isothermal conditions within the temperature range 25 °C T < 52 °C. The experimental results indicate that the time variation of the mass fraction of the C-S-H product phase, α(f), can be fitted, under all conditions of paste setting, by Avrami equation, α(t) = 1 -exp(-(kt)′), k being a rate parameter and n an exponent depending on the characteristics of the transformation. The parameter n is approximately equal to 2 for hydration of C^S in pure water. Depending on temperature, n varies from 2 to 2.65 for hydration in the presence of CaC^ and saccharose. The value n = 2 is theoretically expected for lateral growth of thin C-S-H plates of constant thickness. The time dependence of SAXS intensity indicates that the transformed phase (C-S-H) consists of colloidal particles in early stages of hydration, evolving by two-dimensional growth toward a disordered lamellar structure composed of very thin plates. The activation energy ΔE for the growth of C-S-H phase was determined from the time dependence of X-ray scattering intensity. These data were obtained by in situ measurements at different temperatures of hydration. The values of ΔE are 37.7, 49.4, and 44.3 kJ/mol for hydration in pure water and in water solutions containing CaCl2 and saccharose, respectively. © 2000 American Chemical Society.

Effects of cold fronts on MODIS-derived sensible and latent heat fluxes in Itumbiara reservoir (Central Brazil)

In this work we investigate the cold front passage effects on sensible and latent heat flux in a tropical hydroelectric reservoir. The study area, Itumbiara reservoir (Goiás State/Brazil) at the beginning of the austral winter, is characterized by the presence of a weak thermal stratification and the passage of several cold fronts from higher latitudes of South America. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated considering the atmospheric boundary layer stability. In situ and MODIS water surface temperature data were used to adjust the coefficients for momentum and heat exchanges between water and atmosphere and spatialize the sensible and latent heat fluxes. The results showed that during a cold front event the sensible heat flux can be up to five times greater than the flux observed before. The latent heat flux tends to decrease during the cold front but increase again after the passage. The highest values of heat loss were observed at littoral zone and some Reservoir's embayment. The heat loss intensification can be separated in two moments: first, during the cold front passage, when the wind speed increases and the air temperature decreases; second, after the cold front passage, with air humidity decreasing. This can be considered a key process to understanding the heat loss in the Itumbiara reservoir. © 2013 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accelerating gender equality: reports of the Technical Meeting of the National Machineries for Women and Fourth Caribbean Ministerial Conference on Women: Review and Appraisal of the Beijing Platform for Action

Contiene documentos con símbolos LC/CAR/L.29 y LC/CAR/L.1/Rev.1, ingresados en Biblioteca