Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia

At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.

Estimation on disease burden related to hepatitis B virus infection in Shandong province of China [山东省乙型肝炎病毒感染所致相关疾病的疾病负担研究]

Objective: To comprehensively measure the burden of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in Shandong province, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the disease burden attribute to hepatitis B virus (HBV)infection. Methods: Based on the mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer derived from the third National Sampling Retrospective Survey for Causes of Death during 2004 and 2005, the incidence data of hepatitis B and the prevalence and the disability weights of liver cancer gained from the Shandong Cancer Prevalence Sampling Survey in 2007, we calculated the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and DALYs of three diseases following the procedures developed for the global burden of disease (GBD) study to ensure the comparability. Results: The total burden for hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 211 616 (39 377 YLLs and 172 239 YLDs), 16 783 (13 497 YLLs and 3286 YLDs) and 247 795 (240 236 YLLs and 7559 YLDs) DALYs in 2005 respectively, and men were 2.19, 2.36 and 3.16 times as that for women, respectively in Shandong province. The burden for hepatitis B was mainly because of disability (81.39%). However, most burden on liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were due to premature death (80.42% and 96.95%). The burden of each patient related to hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 4.8, 13.73 and 11.11 respectively. Conclusion: Hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer caused considerable burden to the people living in Shandong province, indicating that the control of hepatitis B virus infection would bring huge potential benefits.

Spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Objective To identify the spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease in Queensland in Australia, using geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial scan statistic (SaTScan). Methods We obtained BFV disease cases, population and statistical local areas boundary data from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively during 1992-2008 for Queensland. A retrospective Poisson-based analysis using SaTScan software and method was conducted in order to identify both purely spatial and space-time BFV disease high-rate clusters. A spatial cluster size of a proportion of the population and a 200km circle radius and varying time windows from 1 month to 12 months were chosen (for the space-time analysis). Results The spatial scan statistic detected a most likely significant purely spatial cluster (including 23 SLAs) and a most likely significant space-time cluster (including 24 SLAs) in approximately the same location. Significant secondary clusters were also identified from both the analyses in several locations. Conclusions This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant BFV disease clusters in Queensland, Australia. The study also demonstrated the relevance and applicability of SaTScan in analysing on-going surveillance data to identify clusters to facilitate the development of effective BFV disease prevention and control strategies in Queensland, Australia.

Socio-environmental variability and Barmah Forest virus disease transmission : a review of epidemiological evidence and future prospects

Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. BFV transmission depends on factors such as climate, virus, vector and the human population. However, the impact of climatic and social factors on BFV remains to be determined. This paper provided an overview of current research and discusses the future research directions on the BFV transmission. These research findings could be regarded as an impetus towards BFV prevention and control strategies.

Evaluation of an inactivated Ross River virus vaccine in active and passive mouse immunization models and establishment of a correlate of protection

Ross River Virus has caused reported outbreaks of epidemic polyarthritis, a chronic debilitating disease associated with significant long-term morbidity in Australia and the Pacific region since the 1920s. To address this public health concern, a formalin- and UV-inactivated whole virus vaccine grown in animal protein-free cell culture was developed and tested in preclinical studies to evaluate immunogenicity and efficacy in animal models. After active immunizations, the vaccine dose-dependently induced antibodies and protected adult mice from viremia and interferon α/β receptor knock-out (IFN-α/βR(-/-)) mice from death and disease. In passive transfer studies, administration of human vaccinee sera followed by RRV challenge protected adult mice from viremia and young mice from development of arthritic signs similar to human RRV-induced disease. Based on the good correlation between antibody titers in human sera and protection of animals, a correlate of protection was defined. This is of particular importance for the evaluation of the vaccine because of the comparatively low annual incidence of RRV disease, which renders a classical efficacy trial impractical. Antibody-dependent enhancement of infection, did not occur in mice even at low to undetectable concentrations of vaccine-induced antibodies. Also, RRV vaccine-induced antibodies were partially cross-protective against infection with a related alphavirus, Chikungunya virus, and did not enhance infection. Based on these findings, the inactivated RRV vaccine is expected to be efficacious and protect humans from RRV disease

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Persistence of multiple genetic lineages within intra-host populations of Ross River virus

We examined the structure and extent of genetic diversity in intrahost populations of Ross River virus (RRV) in samples from six human patients, focusing on the nonstructural (nsP3) and structural (E2) protein genes. Strikingly, although the samples were collected from contrasting ecological settings 3,000 kilometers apart in Australia, we observed multiple viral lineages in four of the six individuals, which is indicative of widespread mixed infections. In addition, a comparison with previously published RRV sequences revealed that these distinct lineages have been in circulation for at least 5 years, and we were able to document their long-term persistence over extensive geographical distances

Inhibitors of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse transcriptase target distinct phases of early reverse transcription

Early HIV-1 reverse transcription can be separated into initiation and elongation phases. Here we show, using PCR analysis of negative-strand strong-stop DNA [(−)ssDNA] synthesis in intact virus, that different reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors affect distinct phases of early natural endogenous reverse transcription (NERT). The effects of nevirapine on NERT were consistent with a mechanism of action including both specific and nonspecific binding events. The nonspecific component of this inhibition targeted the elongation reaction, whereas the specific effect seemed principally to be directed at very early events (initiation or the initiation-elongation switch). In contrast, foscarnet and the nucleoside analog ddATP inhibited both early and late (−)ssDNA synthesis in a similar manner. We also examined compounds that targeted other viral proteins and found that Ro24-7429 (a Tat antagonist) and rosmarinic acid (an integrase inhibitor) also directly inhibited RT. Our results indicate that NERT can be used to identify and evaluate compounds that directly target the reverse transcription complex.

Properties of the bovine viral diarrhoea virus replicase in extracts of infected MDBK cells

An assay for the bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) replicase was developed using extracts from BVDV-infected cells. The replicase activity was maximal approximately 8 h post-infection as measured by the generation of a genomic length radiolabelled RNA. Using a semi-denaturing gel system, three virus-specific in vitro radiolabelled nascent RNA species were identified. A fast-migrating RNA was demonstrated to be the double-stranded replicative form (RF). A second form was shown to be a partially single-stranded/partially doublestranded RNA, characteristic of the replicative intermediate (RI). A third form, which was often undetectable, migrated between the RF and RI and was probably genomic viral RNA. The optimal replicase activity was dependent on 5–10mM Mg2+ and although it was also active in 1–2mM Mn2+ it was inhibited at higher concentrations. The optimum KCl concentration for labelling of the RI and RF were different, suggestive of at least two distinct replicase activities. These results are supportive of a semi-conservative model of BVDV RNA replication.

Pandemic (H1N1) Influenza 2009 and Australian emergency departments : implications for policy, practice and pandemic preparedness

Objective: To describe the reported impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on EDs, so as to inform future pandemic policy, planning and response management. Methods: This study comprised an issue and theme analysis of publicly accessible literature, data from jurisdictional health departments, and data obtained from two electronic surveys of ED directors and ED staff. The issues identified formed the basis of policy analysis and evaluation. Results: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had a significant impact on EDs with presentation for patients with ‘influenza-like illness’ up to three times that of the same time in previous years. Staff reported a range of issues, including poor awareness of pandemic plans, patient and family aggression, chaotic information flow to themselves and the public, heightened stress related to increased workloads and lower levels of staffing due to illness, family care duties and redeployment of staff to flu clinics. Staff identified considerable discomfort associated with prolonged times wearing personal protective equipment. Staff believed that the care of non-flu patients was compromised during the pandemic as a result of overwork, distraction from core business and the difficulties associated with accommodating infectious patients in an environment that was not conducive. Conclusions: This paper describes the breadth of the impact of pandemics on ED operations. It identifies a need to address a range of industrial, management and procedural issues. In particular, there is a need for a single authoritative source of information, the re-engineering of EDs to accommodate infectious patients and organizational changes to enable rapid deployment of alternative sources of care.

The adenine-rich tract in the 5ʹ-end of the hepatitis C virus ORF encodes a peptide regulating the binding of the C protein to RNA

Hepatitis C virus (HCV ) core (C) protein is thought to bind to viral RNA before it undergoes oligomerization leading to RNA encapsidation. Details of these events are so far unknown. The 5ʹ-terminal C protein coding sequence that includes an adenine (A)-rich tract is a part of an internal ribosome entry site(IRES). This nucleotide sequence but not the corresponding protein sequence is needed for proper initiation of translation of viral RNA by an IRES-dependent mechanism. In this study, we examined the importance of this sequence for the ability of the C protein to bind to viral RNA. Serially truncated C proteins with deletions from 10 up to 45 N-terminal amino acids were expressed in Escherichia coli, purified and tested for binding to viral RNA by a gel shift assay. The results showed that truncation of the C protein from its N-terminus by more than 10 amino acids abolished almost completely its expression in E. coli. The latter could be restored by adding a tag to the N-terminus of the protein. The tagged proteins truncated by 15 or more amino acids showed an anomalous migration in SDS-PAGE. Truncation by more than 20 amino acids resulted in a complete loss of ability of tagged C protein to bind to viral RNA. These results provide clues to the early events in the C protein - RNA interactions leading to C protein oligomerization, RNA encapsidation and virion assembly.