Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Evidence and implications of multiple paradigms in accounting knowledge production

This paper uses evidence gathered in two perception studies ofAustralasian and British accounting academics to reflect on aspects of the knowledge production systemwithin accounting academe. We provide evidence of the representation of multiple paradigms in many journals that are scored by participants as being of high quality. Indeed most of the journals we surveyed are perceived by accounting academics as incorporating research from more than one paradigm. It is argued that this ‘catholic’ approach by journal editors and the willingness of many respondents in our surveys to score journals highly on material they publish from both paradigm categories reflects a balanced acceptance of the multi-paradigmatic state of accounting research. Our analysis is set within an understanding of systems of accounting knowledge production as socially constructed and as playing an important role in the distribution of power and reward in the academy. We explore the impact of our results on concerns emerging from the work of a number of authors who carefully expose localised 'elites'. The possibilities for a closer relationship between research emerging from a multi-paradigm discipline and policy setting and practice are also discussed. The analysis provides a sense of optimism that the broad constituency of accounting academics operates within an environment conducive for the exchange of ideas. That optimism is dampened by concerns about the impact of local 'elites' and the need for more research on their impact on accounting academe.

Semantically Enhanced Software Documentation Processes

High-quality software documentation is a substantial issue for understanding software systems. Shorter time-to-market software cycles increase the importance of automatism for keeping the documentation up to date. In this paper, we describe the automatic support of the software documentation process using semantic technologies. We introduce a software documentation ontology as an underlying knowledge base. The defined ontology is populated automatically by analysing source code, software documentation and code execution. Through selected results we demonstrate that the use of such semantic systems can support software documentation processes efficiently.

2D Apportionment Methods

Михаил Константинов, Костадин Янев, Галина Пелова, Юлиана Бонева - В работата се разглеждат двумерни пропорционални изборни системи, при които броят на партийните мандати се определя на национално ниво, а персонификацията на мандатите става чрез регионални партийни листи. При това, броят на мандатите във всеки район се определя пропорционално на населението. Предложени са нови подобрени методи за двумерно разпределение и са представени резултати от числени пресмятания с данните от парламентарните избори през 2009 г.

A költségvetési hiány politikai gazdaságtana (The political economy of budgetary deficit)

A fejlett ipari országokra a hetvenes évektől mind inkább jellemző tartós költségvetési hiányt sem a keynesi, sem pedig a neoklasszikus elmélet nem tudta kielégítően magyarázni. Az új politikai gazdaságtan azonban, úgy tűnik, sikerrel tárta fel nemcsak a tartós hiány és a növekvő eladósodottság okait, hanem a fiskális politikai teljesítményben országok között és időben mutatkozó jelentős eltérések forrásait is. A siker elsősorban annak köszönhető, hogy az új politikai gazdaságtan a költségvetési politika alakításának politikai és intézményi korlátai felé fordult, azzal a nem titkolt szándékkal, hogy kiterjessze a főáramú közgazdaságtan határait, és beépítse modelljeibe a gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatal folyamatát. Tanulmányunkban négy átfogó magyarázatot tekintünk át - ezek: 1. az adósságállomány stratégiai használata, 2. a stabilizáció elodázása, 3. a politikai és választási rendszerek különbözősége és 4. a gyenge vagy széttöredezett végrehajtói hatalom -, azzal az egyértelmű igénnyel, hogy a szokásos pozitív elemzést normatív vizsgálódással egészítsük ki. / === / Neither Keynesian nor Neoclassical theory managed to explain adequately the increasingly typical state of chronic budgetary deficit found in developed industrial countries since the 1970s. But the new political economy seems to have revealed the causes of the chronic deficit and mounting indebtedness and of the reasons for the marked differences in fiscal-policy performance between countries and periods. The success can be ascribed primarily to the fact that the new political economy turned to the political and institutional constraints on the formation of budgetary policy, with the unconcealed aim of broadening the bounds of mainstream economics and building the policy-making process into it. The study examines four comprehensive explanations: 1. strategic use of debt stock, 2. postponement of stabilization, 3. differences of political and electoral systems, and 4. weak or fragmented executive power, with the clear intention of complementing the customary positive analysis with a normative examination.

Resolving conflict in bipolar societies: The fate of political settlements in Fiji and Northern Ireland

Ethnically divided societies that might be described as ‘balanced bicommunal’ (where there are two communities, each of which comes close to representing half of the population) pose a particular challenge to conventional principles of collective decision-making, and commonly threaten political stability. This article analyses the experience of two such societies – Northern Ireland and Fiji – with a view to exploring whether there are common processes in the route by which political stability has been pursued. We assess the manner in which a distinctive relationship with Great Britain and its political culture has interacted with local conditions to produce a highly competitive, bipolar party system. This leads to consideration of the devices that have been adopted in an effort to bridge the gap between the communities: the Fiji constitution as amended in 1997, and Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998. We focus, in particular, on the use of unusual (preferential voting) formulas for the election of parliamentarians and of an inclusive principle in the selection of ministers, and consider the contribution of these institutional devices to the attainment of political stability. We find that, in both cases, the intervention of forces from outside the political system had a decisive impact, though in very different ways. In addition to being underpinned by solid institutional design, for political settlements to work effectively, some minimal level of trust between rival elites is required.

Toward blueprints for network architecture, biophysical dynamics, and signal transduction

We review mathematical aspects of biophysical dynamics, signal transduction and network architecture that have been used to uncover functionally significant relations between the dynamics of single neurons and the networks they compose. We focus on examples that combine insights from these three areas to expand our understanding of systems neuroscience. These range from single neuron coding to models of decision making and electrosensory discrimination by networks and populations, as well as coincidence detection in pairs of dendrites and the dynamics of large networks of excitable dendritic spines. We conclude by describing some of the challenges that lie ahead as the applied mathematics community seeks to provide the tools that will ultimately underpin systems neuroscience.