Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

The in vivo fate of nanoparticles and nanoparticle-loaded microcapsules after oral administration in mice: Evaluation of their potential for colon-specific delivery

Anti-cancer drug loaded-nanoparticles (NPs) or encapsulation of NPs in colon-targeted delivery systems shows potential for increasing the local drug concentration in the colon leading to improved treatment of colorectal cancer. To investigate the potential of the NP-based strategies for colon-specific delivery, two formulations, free Eudragit® NPs and enteric-coated NP-loaded chitosan–hypromellose microcapsules (MCs) were fluorescently-labelled and their tissue distribution in mice after oral administration was monitored by multispectral small animal imaging. The free NPs showed a shorter transit time throughout the mouse digestive tract than the MCs, with extensive excretion of NPs in faeces at 5 h. Conversely, the MCs showed complete NP release in the lower region of the mouse small intestine at 8 h post-administration. Overall, the encapsulation of NPs in MCs resulted in a higher colonic NP intensity from 8 h to 24 h post-administration compared to the free NPs, due to a NP ‘guarding’ effect of MCs during their transit along mouse gastrointestinal tract which decreased NP excretion in faeces. These imaging data revealed that this widely-utilised colon-targeting MC formulation lacked site-precision for releasing its NP load in the colon, but the increased residence time of the NPs in the lower gastrointestinal tract suggests that it is still useful for localised release of chemotherapeutics, compared to NP administration alone. In addition, both formulations resided in the stomach of mice at considerable concentrations over 24 h. Thus, adhesion of NP- or MC-based oral delivery systems to gastric mucosa may be problematic for colon-specific delivery of the cargo to the colon and should be carefully investigated for a full evaluation of particulate delivery systems.

Modelling of the evaporation of a droplet suspended in a binary atmosphere

The process of spray drying is applied in a number of contexts. One such application is the production of a synthetic rock used for storage of nuclear waste. To establish a framework for a model of the spray drying process for this application, we here develop a model describing evaporation from droplets of pure water, such that the model may be extended to account for the presence of colloid within the droplet. We develop a spherically-symmetric model and formulate continuum equations describing mass, momentum, and energy balance in both the liquid and gas phases from first principles. We establish appropriate boundary conditions at the surface of the droplet, including a generalised Clapeyron equation that accurately describes the temperature at the surface of the droplet. To account for experiment design, we introduce a simplified platinum ball and wire model into the system using a thin wire problem. The resulting system of equations is transformed in order to simplify a finite volume solution scheme. The results from numerical simulation are compared with data collected for validation, and the sensitivity of the model to variations in key parameters, and to the use of Clausius–Clapeyron and generalised Clapeyron equations, is investigated. Good agreement is found between the model and experimental data, despite the simplicity of the platinum phase model.

Forms of relativistic dynamics with World Line Condition and separability

he Dirac generator formalism for relativistic Hamiltonian dynamics is reviewed along with its extension to constraint formalism. In these theories evolution is with respect to a dynamically defined parameter, and thus time evolution involves an eleventh generator. These formulations evade the No-Interaction Theorem. But the incorporation of separability reopens the question, and together with the World Line Condition leads to a second no-interaction theorem for systems of three or more particles. Proofs are omitted, but the results of recent research in this area is highlighted.

The impact of inter-fraction set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complication in left-sided breast cancer patients

Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.

Reactivity in the spinel formation reaction in CuO/Al2O3, Fe2O3, Cr2O3 systems

Abstract is not available.

ESR studies of non-silicate inorganic glasses through their glass transformation ranges

ESR spectra of three inorganic glasses doped with Mn2+ and Fe3+ have been studied through their glass transition temperatures (Tg). Spectral features in each case have been discussed with reference to site symmetries. The intensity of the ESR signal has been bound to decrease in the region of Tg. An attempt has been made to explain this interesting feature on the basis of a two-state model.

Laboratory Test Methods For The Evaluation Of Flammability Of Polymers

Combustion is a complex phenomena involving a multiplicity of variables. Some important variables measured in flame tests follow [1]. In order to characterize ignition, such related parameters as ignition time, ease of ignition, flash ignition temperature, and self-ignition temperature are measured. For studying the propagation of the flame, parameters such as distance burned or charred, area of flame spread, time of flame spread, burning rate, charred or melted area, and fire endurance are measured. Smoke characteristics are studied by determining such parameters as specific optical density, maximum specific optical density, time of occurrence of the densities, maximum rate of density increase, visual obscuration time, and smoke obscuration index. In addition to the above variables, there are a number of specific properties of the combustible system which could be measured. These are soot formation, toxicity of combustion gases, heat of combustion, dripping phenomena during the burning of thermoplastics, afterglow, flame intensity, fuel contribution, visual characteristics, limiting oxygen concentration (OI), products of pyrolysis and combustion, and so forth. A multitude of flammability tests measuring one or more of these properties have been developed [2]. Admittedly, no one small scale test is adequate to mimic or assess the performance of a plastic in a real fire situation. The conditions are much too complicated [3, 4]. Some conceptual problems associated with flammability testing of polymers have been reviewed [5, 6].

Genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies new endometriosis risk loci

We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 4,604 endometriosis cases and 9,393 controls of Japanese and European ancestry. We show that rs12700667 on chromosome 7p15.2, previously found to associate with disease in Europeans, replicates in Japanese (P = 3.6 x 10(-3)), and we confirm association of rs7521902 at 1p36.12 near WNT4. In addition, we establish an association of rs13394619 in GREB1 at 2p25.1 with endometriosis and identify a newly associated locus at 12q22 near VEZT (rs10859871). Excluding cases of European ancestry of minimal or unknown severity, we identified additional previously unknown loci at 2p14 (rs4141819), 6p22.3 (rs7739264) and 9p21.3 (rs1537377). All seven SNP effects were replicated in an independent cohort and associated at P <5 x 10(-8) in a combined analysis. Finally, we found a significant overlap in polygenic risk for endometriosis between the genome-wide association cohorts of European and Japanese descent (P = 8.8 x 10(-11)), indicating that many weakly associated SNPs represent true endometriosis risk loci and that risk prediction and future targeted disease therapy may be transferred across these populations.

Campylobacter Infections of Domestic Origin in Finland

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli are the leading causes of human bacterial gastroenteritis in developed countries. Most human Campylobacter infections are sporadic and a seasonal peak in the distribution of infections can be seen in the summer months in several countries, including Finland. A variety of risk factors for Campylobacter infections have been identified; handling and eating poultry, drinking unpasteurized milk, contact with domestic animals, and travelling abroad. However, the relative importance of the different risk factors in sporadic cases of Campylobacter infection remains unknown. In most cases, the infection is self-limiting and no specific treatment is required. Campylobacter enteritis can cause a wide range of complications, including reactive arthritis (ReA) that is reported in 1-5% of the cases. Seven clinical microbiology laboratories serving different geographical areas of Finland, participated in this multi-centre study, conducted during a seasonal peak in 2002. In a matched case-control study, domestically-acquired sporadic Campylobacter infections from three geographical areas were collected. The final study comprised 100 cases and 137 controls. Risk factors for sporadic domestically-acquired Campylobacter infections were identified on the basis of a questionnaire; swimming in natural waters was found to be a novel risk factor for Campylobacter infection. Other independent risk factors were tasting or eating raw or undercooked meat and drinking untreated water from a dug well. The role of bacterial strain and host characteristics are not fully understood in Campylobacter infections. Exposure factors, demographical characteristics, and the serotype of the Campylobacter isolate may affect the severity of the enteritis. This cross-sectional study comprised 114 patients with C. jejuni enteritis, diagnosed in three clinical microbiology laboratories; most of the patients had participated in the previous case-control study. Swimming was associated with age ≤ 5 years and serotype Pen 6,7 was found significantly more often among patients reporting swimming. The geographical distribution among serotypes varied; serotype Pen 4-complex appeared more often in patients from urban areas and serotype Pen 21 among patients from more rural areas. Thus, risk factors and sources of infection for C. jejuni infection may vary among individuals depending on age and geographical location. The in vitro susceptibilities of C. jejuni and C. coli strains isolated from patients infected abroad (85 strains) or domestically (393 strains) revealed that susceptibility to erythromycin is still high, even among isolates of foreign origin. However, the novel antimicrobial agent telithromycin did not offer any advantage over erythromycin; isolates with high minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for erythromycin also showed reduced susceptibility to telithromycin. Reduced susceptibility to fluoroquinolones was detected almost exclusively among isolates of foreign origin and half of these isolates with high MICs for fluoroquinolones also showed elevated MICs for doxycycline. Questionnaires concerning complications associated with C. jejuni enteritis were sent to patients two months after becoming ill; 201 patients from seven different geographical areas were included in the study. Musculoskeletal complications after C. jejuni infection were commonly reported by patients (39%). The incidence of classical ReA was 4% and that of Achilles enthesopathy and/or heel pain 9%. Other C. jejuni-associated reactive joint symptoms were commonly reported, however, due to their milder nature seldom seen and diagnosed by a physician. The severity of the enteritis may predict further complications; stomach ache during enteritis was connected to the development of later joint pain. Early antimicrobial treatment, within two days from the start of symptoms, shortened the duration of diarrhoea by two days but did not prevent later musculoskeletal complications. Campylobacter is an important human enteropathogen and causes a significant burden of illness. As the incidence of Campylobacter infections is high, the importance of the infection and the occurrence of complications will increase. This stresses the importance of understanding the risk factors for acquiring Campylobacter infection and how bacterial strain and host characteristics may affect the risk for infection. The role of antimicrobial treatment for acute Campylobacter enteritis seems to be marginal and should be used restrictively.

Genomic and functional profiling of gastric cancer

Helicobacter pylori infection is a risk factor for gastric cancer, which is a major health issue worldwide. Gastric cancer has a poor prognosis due to the unnoticeable progression of the disease and surgery is the only available treatment in gastric cancer. Therefore, gastric cancer patients would greatly benefit from identifying biomarker genes that would improve diagnostic and prognostic prediction and provide targets for molecular therapies. DNA copy number amplifications are the hallmarks of cancers in various anatomical locations. Mechanisms of amplification predict that DNA double-strand breaks occur at the margins of the amplified region. The first objective of this thesis was to identify the genes that were differentially expressed in H. pylori infection as well as the transcription factors and signal transduction pathways that were associated with the gene expression changes. The second objective was to identify putative biomarker genes in gastric cancer with correlated expression and copy number, and the last objective was to characterize cancers based on DNA copy number amplifications. DNA microarrays, an in vitro model and real-time polymerase chain reaction were used to measure gene expression changes in H. pylori infected AGS cells. In order to identify the transcription factors and signal transduction pathways that were activated after H. pylori infection, gene expression profiling data from the H. pylori experiments and a bioinformatics approach accompanied by experimental validation were used. Genome-wide expression and copy number microarray analysis of clinical gastric cancer samples and immunohistochemistry on tissue microarray were used to identify putative gastric cancer genes. Data mining and machine learning techniques were applied to study amplifications in a cross-section of cancers. FOS and various stress response genes were regulated by H. pylori infection. H. pylori regulated genes were enriched in the chromosomal regions that are frequently changed in gastric cancer, suggesting that molecular pathways of gastric cancer and premalignant H. pylori infection that induces gastritis are interconnected. 16 transcription factors were identified as being associated with H. pylori infection induced changes in gene expression. NF-κB transcription factor and p50 and p65 subunits were verified using elecrophoretic mobility shift assays. ERBB2 and other genes located in 17q12- q21 were found to be up-regulated in association with copy number amplification in gastric cancer. Cancers with similar cell type and origin clustered together based on the genomic localization of the amplifications. Cancer genes and large genes were co-localized with amplified regions and fragile sites, telomeres, centromeres and light chromosome bands were enriched at the amplification boundaries. H. pylori activated transcription factors and signal transduction pathways function in cellular mechanisms that might be capable of promoting carcinogenesis of the stomach. Intestinal and diffuse type gastric cancers showed distinct molecular genetic profiles. Integration of gene expression and copy number microarray data allowed the identification of genes that might be involved in gastric carcinogenesis and have clinical relevance. Gene amplifications were demonstrated to be non-random genomic instabilities. Cell lineage, properties of precursor stem cells, tissue microenvironment and genomic map localization of specific oncogenes define the site specificity of DNA amplifications, whereas labile genomic features define the structures of amplicons. These conclusions suggest that the definition of genomic changes in cancer is based on the interplay between the cancer cell and the tumor microenvironment.

Real-fluid effects in flow cavitation

The possible role of reaj fluid effects in two aspects of flow cavitation namely inception and separation is discussed. This is primarily qualitative in the case of inception whereas some quantitative results are presented in the case of separation. Existing evidence clearly indicates that in particular viscous effects can play a significant role in determining the conditions for cavitation inception and in determining the location of cavitation separation from smooth bodies.

Can competition with pasture be used to manipulate bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) population biology?

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) is an invasive weed that poses economic and environmental problems in northern Australia. Competition between pasture and bellyache bush was examined in North Queensland using combinations of five pasture treatments (uncut (control); cut as low, medium, and high pasture; and no pasture) and four bellyache bush densities (0, 2, 6 and 12plantsm(-2)) in a buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) dominated pasture. The pasture treatments were applied approximately once per year but no treatments were applied directly to the bellyache bush plants. Measurements of bellyache bush flowering, seed formation, and mortality were undertaken over a 9-year period, along with monitoring the pasture basal cover and plant species diversity. Maximum flowering rates of bellyache bush occurred after 9 years (97%) in plots containing no pasture, with the lowest rates of 9% in uncut control plots. Earliest flowering (322 days after planting) and seed formation (411 days) also occurred in plots with no pasture compared with all other pasture treatments (range 1314-1393 days for seed formation to occur). No seeds were produced in uncut plots. At the end of 9 years, mortality rates of bellyache bush plants initially planted averaged 73% for treatments with some pasture compared with 55% under the no-pasture treatment. The percentage of herbaceous plant basal cover in uncut plots was increased 5-fold after 9 years, much greater than the average 2% increase recorded across the low, medium, and high pasture treatments. The number of herbaceous species in uncut plots remained largely unchanged, whereas there was an average reduction of 46% in the cut pasture treatments. Buffel grass remained the species with the greatest basal cover across all cut pasture treatments, followed by sabi grass (Urochloa mosambicensis (Hack.) Dandy) and then red Natal grass (Melinis repens (Willd.) Ziska). These results suggest that grazing strategies that maintain a healthy and competitive pasture layer may contribute to reducing the rate of spread of bellyache bush and complement traditional control techniques such as the use of herbicides.

Large scale surveys suggest limited mercury availability in tropical north Queensland (Australia)

Little is known about the threat of mercury (Hg) to consumers in food webs of Australia's wet-dry tropics. This is despite high concentrations in similar biomes elsewhere and a recent history of gold mining that could lead to a high degree of exposure for biota. We analysed Hg in water, sediments, invertebrates and fishes in rivers and estuaries of north Queensland, Australia to determine its availability and biomagnification in food webs. Concentrations in water and sediments were low relative to other regions of Hg concern, with only four of 138 water samples and five of 60 sediment samples above detection limits of 0.1 mu g L-1 and 01 mu g g(-1), respectively. Concentrations of Hg in fishes and invertebrates from riverine and wetland food webs were well below international consumption guidelines, including those in piscivorous fishes, likely due to low baseline concentrations and limited rates of biomagnification (average slope of log Hg vs. delta N-15 = 0.08). A large fish species of recreational, commercial, and cultural importance (the barramundi, Lates calcarifer), had low concentrations that were below consumption guidelines. Observed variation in Hg concentrations in this species was primarily explained by age and foraging location (floodplain vs. coastal), with floodplain feeders having higher Hg concentrations than those foraging at sea. These analyses suggest that there is a limited threat of Hg exposure for fish-eating consumers in this region. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.