124 resultados para 3798


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The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agroclimatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes

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Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Don?ana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods?analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights?that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and evenmore so under an increased water scarcity scenario.

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Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

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This work was supported by a Grant from the Welsh Government (Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Project—GMEP).

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Vacunas.org (http://www.vacunas.org), a website founded by the Spanish Association of Vaccinology offers a personalized service called Ask the Expert, which answers any questions posed by the public or health professionals about vaccines and vaccination. The aim of this study was to analyze the factors associated with questions on vaccination safety and determine the characteristics of questioners and the type of question asked during the period 2008–2010. A total of 1341 questions were finally included in the analysis. Of those, 30% were related to vaccine safety. Questions about pregnant women had 5.01 higher odds of asking about safety (95% CI 2.82–8.93) than people not belonging to any risk group. Older questioners (>50 years) were less likely to ask about vaccine safety compared to younger questioners (OR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.25–0.76). Questions made after vaccination or related to influenza (including H1N1) or travel vaccines were also associated with a higher likelihood of asking about vaccine safety. These results identify risk groups (pregnant women), population groups (older people) and some vaccines (travel and influenza vaccines, including H1N1) where greater efforts to provide improved, more-tailored vaccine information in general and on the Internet are required.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Article Accepted Date: 29 May 2014 Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Cognitive Science Society for the organisation of the Workshop on Production of Referring Expressions: Bridging the Gap between Cognitive and Computational Approaches to Reference, from which this special issue originated. Funding Emiel Krahmer and Albert Gatt thank The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for VICI grant Bridging the Gap between Computational Linguistics and Psycholinguistics: The Case of Referring Expressions (grant number 277-70-007).

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O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em propor um modelo de maturidade em gestão da inovação, mediante utilização de métodos científicos. Como problema de pesquisa esse trabalho busca identificar: Quais os pressupostos para a elaboração de um modelo de maturidade para gestão da inovação? Uma revisão sistemática da literatura foi realizada com o intuito de obter embasamento teórico e de identificar as dimensões e características dos modelos de maturidade e de mensuração para a gestão da inovação. A metodologia utilizada para propor o modelo de maturidade contou com a fundamentação teórica obtida,por meio da realização da revisão sistemática da literatura, o que permitiu arquitetar o modelo, estabelecendo os níveis e suas dimensões. Para preencher o modelo, um questionário adaptado com 41 itens foi aplicado a 298 colaboradores de diferentes áreas de atuação.Após aplicação do questionário os itens foram submetidos a métodos analíticos de validação como o algoritmo de Rasch e análise de cluster com intuito de validar o modelo proposto. Como resultado esperado dessa pesquisa, um modelo de maturidade em gestão da inovação foi proposto e sua validação foi realizada por meio da aplicação do modelo em uma organização para atestar sua capacidade.