Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Don't talk about me . . . like I'm not here: Disability in Australian national cinema

The article analyzes the representation of disability in Australian national cinema. Disability has been an enduring topic in Australian films and it has got occasional mentions in film and cultural criticism. An important pioneering treatment in this field is film critic Elizabeth Ferrier's examination of the trope of creative disabilities. Ferrier draws attention to disability in Australian film. She provides a stimulating and nuanced reading in light of the thematics of Australian cultural anxieties. "My One Legged Dream Lover," is one of the few productions that features a disabled lead character, Kath Duncan, played by disabled performer, Kath Duncan.

Arousal and re-feeding rapidly restores digestive tract morphology following aestivation in green-striped burrowing frogs

During aestivation, the gut of the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata undergoes significant morphological down-regulation. Despite the potential impact such changes might have on the re-feeding efficiency of these animals following aestivation, they appear to be as efficient at digesting their first meals as active, non-aestivating animals. Such efficiency might come about by the rapid restoration of intestinal morphology with both arousal from aestivation and the initial stages of re-feeding. Consequently, this study sought to determine what morphological changes to the intestine accompany arousal and re-feeding following 3 months of aestivation. Arousal from aestivation alone had a marked impact on many morphological parameters, including small and large intestine masses, small intestinal length, LF heights, enterocyte cross-sectional area and microvilli height and density. In addition, the onset of re-feeding was correlated with an immediate reversal of many morphological parameters affected by 3 months of aestivation. Those parameters that had not returned to control levels within 36 h of feeding generally had returned to control values by the completion of digestion (i.e. defecation of the meal). Re-feeding was also associated with several changes in enterocyte morphology including the incorporation in intracytoplasmic lipid droplets and the return of enterocyte nuclear material to the 'active' euchromatin state: In conclusion, morphological changes to the gut of aestivating frogs which occur during aestivation are transitory and rapidly reversible with both arousal from aestivation and re-feeding. The proximate causes behind these transitions and their functional significance are discussed. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fear of crime in Brisbane - Individual, social and neighbourhood factors in perspective

Numerous theories apply to fear of crime and each are associated with different kinds of variables. Most studies use only one theory, though this study examines the relative importance of different kinds of variables across a number of theories. The study uses data from a survey of residents in Brisbane, Australia to examine the relative importance of individual attributes, neighbourhood disorder, social processes and neighbourhood structure in predicting fear of crime. Individual attributes and neighbourhood disorder were found to be important predictors of fear of crime, while social processes and neighbourhood structure were found to be far less important. The theoretical implications are that the vulnerability hypothesis and the incivilities thesis are most appropriate for investigating fear of crime, though social disorganization theory does provide conceptual support for the incivilities thesis. Although social processes are less important in predicting fear of crime than neighbourhood incivilities, they are still integrally related to fear of crime: they explain how incivilities arise, they buffer against fear of crime, and they are affected by fear of crime.

“Doing” Gender in Context: Household Bargaining and Risk of Divorce in Germany and the United States

Gender relations remain embedded in their sociopolitical context. Compared here using event-history analysis is how household divisions of paid and unpaid labor affect marital stability in the former West Germany, where policy reinforced male breadwinner families, and the United States, where policy remains silent regarding the private sphere. In Germany, any moves away from separate gendered spheres in terms of either wives' relative earnings or husbands' relative participation in housework increase the risk of divorce. In the United States, however, the more stable couples are those that adapt by displaying greater gender equity. These results highlight that policy shapes how gender gets done in the intimate sphere, and that reinforcement of a gendered division of labor may be detrimental to marital stability.

Potential misidentification of in situ archaeological tool-residues: starch and conidia

Microscopic identification of organic residues in situ on the surface of archaeological artefacts is an established procedure. Where soil components morphologically similar to use-residue types exist within the soil, however, there remains the possibility that these components may be misidentified as authentic residues. The present study investigates common soil components known as conidia, fungal spores which may be mistaken for starch grains. Conidia may exhibit the rotating extinction cross under cross-polarised light commonly diagnostic of starch, and may be morphologically indistinguishable from small starch grains, particularly at the limits of microscope resolution. Conidia were observed on stone and ceramic archaeological artefacts from Honduras, Palau and New Caledonia, as well as experimental artefacts from Papua New Guinea. The findings act as a caution that in situ analysis of residues, and especially of those less than 5 mu m in size, may be subject to misidentification. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An archaeology of the instant? Action and narrative in microscopic archaeological residue analyses

The discovery and interpretation of microscopic residues on stone artefacts is an expanding front within archaeological science, allowing reconstructions of the past use of specific tools. With notable exceptions, however, the field has seen little theoretical development, relying largely on a rationale in which either individual findings are widely generalized or the age of the site determines the importance of the results. Here an approach to residue interpretation is proposed that draws on notions of narrative, scale, action and agency as one means of expanding the theoretical scope and application of residue studies. It is suggested that the individual resonance of the findings of residue analyses with people in the present day can be used to provide a more nuanced understanding of past actions, which in turn allows both better integration and communication of those findings within and outside the archaeological comm unity, and begins to overcome the problems associated with the typically small sample sizes analysed in stone-tool residue studies.

Adam, pro-Adamites, and extra-terrestrial beings in early-modern Europe

This article examines the question of the existence of non-Adamic persons-both terrestrial and extra-terrestrial-in early modern Europe. More particularly it looks at how the existence of non-Adamites seriously called into question the credibility of the central themes of the Christian story of the creation, fall and redemption in Jesus Christ in early modern Europe. It analyses the impact on the Christian view of history caused by the discovery of the inhabitants of the New World, speculations about the polygenetic origins of the human race, and discussions about the plurality of worlds. It concludes with some reflections on the monogenetic and polygenetic accounts of the origin of humans in a post-Darwinian context.

Predestination and freedom in Milton's 'Paradise lost'

John Milton's epic poem Paradise Lost (1667) offers a highly creative seventeenth-century reconstruction of the doctrine of predestination, a reconstruction which both anticipates modern theological developments and sheds important light on the history of predestinarian thought. Moving beyond the framework of post-Reformation controversies, the poem emphasises both the freedom and the universality of electing grace, and the eternally decisive role of human freedom in salvation. The poem erases the distinction between an eternal election of some human beings and an eternal rejection of others, portraying reprobation instead as the temporal self-condemnation of those who wilfully reject their own election and so exclude themselves from salvation. While election is grounded in the gracious will of God, reprobation is thus grounded in the fluid sphere of human decision. Highlighting this sphere of human decision, the poem depicts the freedom of human beings to actualise the future as itself the object of divine predestination. While presenting its own unique vision of predestination, Paradise Lost thus moves towards the influential and distinctively modern formulations of later thinkers like Schleiermacher and Barth.