Can we explain the dynamics of the UK FTSE 100 stock and stock index futures markets?

If stock and stock index futures markets are functioning properly price movements in these markets should best be described by a first order vector error correction model with the error correction term being the price differential between the two markets (the basis). Recent evidence suggests that there are more dynamics present than should be in effectively functioning markets. Using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, this study analyses whether such dynamics can be related to different regimes within which the basis can fluctuate in a predictable manner without triggering arbitrage. These findings reveal that the basis shows strong evidence of autoregressive behaviour when its value is between the two thresholds but that the extra dynamics disappear once the basis moves above the upper threshold and their persistence is reduced, although not eradicated, once the basis moves below the lower threshold. This suggests that once nonlinearity associated with transactions costs is accounted for, stock and stock index futures markets function more effectively than is suggested by linear models of the pricing relationship.

Dynamic correlations between REIT sub-sectors and the implications for diversification

The issue of whether Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) should pursue a focused or diversified investment strategy remains an ongoing debate within both the academic and industry communities. This article considers the relationship between REITs focused on different property sectors in a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-Dynamic Control Correlation (GARCH-DCC) framework. The daily conditional correlations reveal that since 1990 there has been a marked upward trend in the coefficients between US REIT sub-sectors. The findings imply that REITs are behaving in a far more homogeneous manner than in the past. Furthermore, the argument that REITs should be focused in order that investors can make the diversification decision is reduced.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets

In the absence of market frictions, the cost-of-carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. It is argued that traditional tests, which assume that the underlying data generating process is constant, might be prone to overstate the lead-lag relationship. Using a new test for lead-lag relationships based on cross correlations and cross bicorrelations it is found that, contrary to results from using the traditional methodology, periods where the futures market leads the cash market are few and far between and when any lead-lag relationship is detected, it does not last long. Overall, the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard cost-of-carry model and market efficiency.

Testing for non-linearity in daily sterling exchange rates

A number of tests for non-linear dependence in time series are presented and implemented on a set of 10 daily sterling exchange rates covering the entire post Bretton-Woods era until the present day. Irrefutable evidence of non-linearity is shown in many of the series, but most of this dependence can apparently be explained by reference to the GARCH family of models. It is suggested that the literature in this area has reached an impasse, with the presence of ARCH effects clearly demonstrated in a large number of papers, but with the tests for non-linearity which are currently available being unable to classify any additional non-linear structure.

The sustainable value approach: a clarifying and constructive comment

Recently, the original benchmarking methodology of the Sustainable Value approach became subjected to serious debate. While Kuosmanen and Kuosmanen (2009b) critically question its validity introducing productive efficiency theory, Figge and Hahn (2009) put forward that the implementation of productive efficiency theory severely conflicts with the original financial economics perspective of the Sustainable Value approach. We argue that the debate is very confusing because the original Sustainable Value approach presents two largely incompatible objectives. Nevertheless, we maintain that both ways of benchmarking could provide useful and moreover complementary insights. If one intends to present the overall resource efficiency of the firm from the investor's viewpoint, we recommend the original benchmarking methodology. If one on the other hand aspires to create a prescriptive tool setting up some sort of reallocation scheme, we advocate implementation of the productive efficiency theory. Although the discussion on benchmark application is certainly substantial, we should avoid the debate to become accordingly narrowed. Next to the benchmark concern, we see several other challenges considering the development of the Sustainable Value approach: (1) a more systematic resource selection, (2) the inclusion of the value chain and (3) additional analyses related to policy in order to increase interpretative power.

The long-run performance of IPOs: the case of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius

This study examines the long-run performance of initial public offerings on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the 3-year equally weighted cumulative adjusted returns average −16.5%. The magnitude of this underperformance is consistent with most reported studies in different developed and emerging markets. Based on multivariate regression models, firms with small issues and higher ex ante financial strength seem on average to experience greater long-run underperformance, supporting the divergence of opinion and overreaction hypotheses. On the other hand, Mauritian firms do not on average time their offerings to lower cost of capital and as such, there seems to be limited support for the windows of opportunity hypothesis.

Financialisation, the valuation of investment property and the urban built environment in the UK

The financialisation literature has been criticised for its limited empirical base and its failure adequately to link the everyday world with that of high finance. The paper addresses these shortcomings by examining the calculative practice of property valuation. The way that valuations are performed affects their results and, therefore, the operation of the property market. The paper traces the evolving influence of finance capital on the valuation of commercial property in the UK by constructing a historiography of investment valuation since 1960. Traditional approaches to valuation have been increasingly challenged by those derived from financial economics. However, the former remains the dominant method for undertaking market valuation. Its grounding in comparison – a centring and standardising process – offers an explanation for some of the changes in the urban built environment that are ascribed to financialisation. This suggests that a more detailed and historically sensitive interpretation of financialisation is required.

Do US macroeconomic forecasters exaggerate their differences?

Application of the Bernhardt et al. (Journal of Financial Economics 2006; 80(3): 657–675) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon, when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.

The concentration of creditors: evidence from small businesses

This article examines the determinants of concentration of creditors. The empirical evidence drawn from this article supports the proposition of Bolton and Scharfstein (1996) that for negotiation reasons, high-quality borrowers tend to borrow from multiple sources and is contrary to the theoretical prediction of Bris and Welch (2005). This finding implies the existence of hold-up problems in financing small businesses where information conveyance is difficult between lenders. It is further supported by the evidence that dispersed bank relationships are associated with relationships of a longer history and a closer physical distance to lenders.

Citation patterns within the leading top-tier finance journals implications for journal rankings and other issues

This paper examines all citations and self-citations to a list of 95 finance journals appearing in the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics and Review of Financial Studies from 1995 through 2005. Additionally, the publication profile of 100 prolific authors in top-tier finance journals is tabulated for these 95 journals. Citations to non-finance journals in economics and accounting are also tabulated for comparison with their finance counterpart along with working papers. Six ranking schemes are constructed with each scheme identifying the top fifty finance journals. Citations to finance journals are highly concentrated within ten journals and similarly for self-citations. Authors of papers appearing in top-tier finance journals pay scant attention to the bulk of research published in other finance journals. Furthermore, these authors cite other economic journals with greater frequency than their counterpart in finance. Of the top fifty finance journals identified in this paper, only 21 are listed in Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), and this compares to approximately 500 listed economic journals. Some glaring omissions from SSCI are identified, but most notably the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Journal of Financial Research, Journal of Empirical Finance and Journal of Fixed Income. An analysis of 2006 citations patterns is also presented. The top-tier mantra assigned to finance journals has a void with the decision by the Journal of Business to cease publication with the November 2006 issue. This paper identifies five finance journals anyone of which could potentially fill the void.

Firm heterogeneity and calendar anomalies

While the calendar anomalies and financial market relationship is one of the oldest relationships in financial economics, we treat this relationship differently by addressing two unknown issues: (a) Do calendar anomalies have a heterogeneous effect on firm returns and firm volatility depending on the sectoral location of firms? and (b) Do calendar anomalies affect firm returns and firm volatility differently depending on firm size? Unlike the assumption in this literature that firms are homogeneous, we show that they are in fact heterogeneous. Using 560 firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) over the period 5 January 2000 to 31 December 2008, we find fresh results, previously undocumented in this literature. We find evidence of calendar anomalies affecting returns and return volatility of firms differently depending on their sectoral locations and size.

Financialisation of official development assistance

Official Development Assistance is a significant global enterprise. Organsiations engaged in funding and implementing ODA (the bilateral donors, multilateral organsiations such as the World Bank and IMF) have unprecedented political and economic influence over a large number of sovereign developing countries. This paper analyses if, and how financialisation impacts on development aid, and implications for effective aid policy agendas, drawing on and linking critical debate on finacialisation, and ODA. Subsequent to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the persistence of the European Monitory Crisis (EMC), specific needs of developing countries became increasingly sub-ordinated to political and ideological power relations between ‘real’ economics and financial economics otherwise known as financialisation. The paper finds ‘financialisation’ as the ideological, political and economic catalyst for economic growth potentially confusing long-term development to combat poverty, and a short term need to overcome the lack of financial capacity in developing recipient countries. Sustainable economic development requires developing countries to forsake the pursuit of financialisation and to re-delineate their national finance, trade and investment regimes, and re-state it in a balanced manner as to take into account their unique economic development needs rather that the donor agencies’ demands and to advance their own ‘real’ economies.