Workflow simulation for operational decision support

Simulation is widely used as a tool for analyzing business processes but is mostly focused on examining abstract steady-state situations. Such analyses are helpful for the initial design of a business process but are less suitable for operational decision making and continuous improvement. Here we describe a simulation system for operational decision support in the context of workflow management. To do this we exploit not only the workflow’s design, but also use logged data describing the system’s observed historic behavior, and incorporate information extracted about the current state of the workflow. Making use of actual data capturing the current state and historic information allows our simulations to accurately predict potential near-future behaviors for different scenarios. The approach is supported by a practical toolset which combines and extends the workflow management system YAWL and the process mining framework ProM.

Sensitivity of proximal femoral stiffness and areal bone mineral density to changes in bone geometry and density

Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) is the most common surrogate measurement for assessing the bone strength of the proximal femur associated with osteoporosis. Additional factors, however, contribute to the overall strength of the proximal femur, primarily the anatomical geometry. Finite element analysis (FEA) is an effective and widely used computerbased simulation technique for modeling mechanical loading of various engineering structures, providing predictions of displacement and induced stress distribution due to the applied load. FEA is therefore inherently dependent upon both density and anatomical geometry. FEA may be performed on both three-dimensional and two-dimensional models of the proximal femur derived from radiographic images, from which the mechanical stiffness may be redicted. It is examined whether the outcome measures of two-dimensional FEA, two-dimensional, finite element analysis of X-ray images (FEXI), and three-dimensional FEA computed stiffness of the proximal femur were more sensitive than aBMD to changes in trabecular bone density and femur geometry. It is assumed that if an outcome measure follows known trends with changes in density and geometric parameters, then an increased sensitivity will be indicative of an improved prediction of bone strength. All three outcome measures increased non-linearly with trabecular bone density, increased linearly with cortical shell thickness and neck width, decreased linearly with neck length, and were relatively insensitive to neck-shaft angle. For femoral head radius, aBMD was relatively insensitive, with two-dimensional FEXI and threedimensional FEA demonstrating a non-linear increase and decrease in sensitivity, respectively. For neck anteversion, aBMD decreased non-linearly, whereas both two-dimensional FEXI and three dimensional FEA demonstrated a parabolic-type relationship, with maximum stiffness achieved at an angle of approximately 15o. Multi-parameter analysis showed that all three outcome measures demonstrated their highest sensitivity to a change in cortical thickness. When changes in all input parameters were considered simultaneously, three and twodimensional FEA had statistically equal sensitivities (0.41±0.20 and 0.42±0.16 respectively, p = ns) that were significantly higher than the sensitivity of aBMD (0.24±0.07; p = 0.014 and 0.002 for three-dimensional and two-dimensional FEA respectively). This simulation study suggests that since mechanical integrity and FEA are inherently dependent upon anatomical geometry, FEXI stiffness, being derived from conventional two-dimensional radiographic images, may provide an improvement in the prediction of bone strength of the proximal femur than currently provided by aBMD.

Development of self-efficacy and expectancy measures for benzodiazepines

This study aimed to develop and assess the reliability and validity of a pair of self-report questionnaires to measure self-efficacy and expectancy associated with benzodiazepine use, the Benzodiazepine Refusal Self- Efficacy Questionnaire (BRSEQ) and the Benzodiazepine Expectancy Questionnaire (BEQ). Internal structure of the questionnaireswas established by principal component analysis (PCA) in a sample of 155 respondents, and verified by confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) in a second independent sample (n=139) using structural equation modeling. The PCA of the BRSEQ resulted in a 16-item, 4-factor scale, and the BEQ formed an 18-item, 2-factor scale. Both scales were internally reliable. CFA confirmed these internal structures and reduced the questionnaires to a 14-item self-efficacy scale and a 12-item expectancy scale. Lower self-efficacy and higher expectancy were moderately associated with higher scores on the SDS-B. The scales provide reliable measures for assessing benzodiazepine self-efficacy and expectancies. Future research will examine the utility of the scales in prospective prediction of benzodiazepine cessation.

Impulsivity and positive psychotic symptoms influence hostility in methamphetamine users

Methamphetamine (MA) use is associated with hostility, aggression, and positive psychotic symptoms. However, little is known of the processes or mechanisms that underlie this relationship. The present research was designed to investigate putative mediating and moderating variables between MA dependence and hostility in a sample of injecting MA users (N=237). Both positive symptoms of psychosis and higher levels of impulsivity functioned as mediators and moderators of this relationship. This pattern of findings suggests that MA use leads to greater hostility by increasing positive psychotic symptoms that contribute to a perception of the environment as a hostile and threatening place as well as by increasing impulsivity. Those who were high in positive symptoms and high in impulsivity were the most hostile. Individual differences in impulsivity and positive psychotic symptoms should be taken into account in the assessment and management of MA dependence.

The arobase in the libr@ry : new political economies of children’s literatures and literacies

This essay--part of a special issue on the work of Gunther Kress--uses the idea of affordances and constraints to explore the (im)possibilities of new environments for engaging with literature written for children (see Kress, 2003). In particular, it examines a festival of children's literature from an Australian education context that occurs online. The festival is part of a technologically mediated library space designated by the term libr@ry (Kapitzke & Bruce, 2006). The @ symbol (French word "arobase") inserted into the word library indicates that technological mediation has a history, an established set of social practices, and a political economy, which even chatrooms with "real" authors may alter but not fully supplant.

Crossing boundaries: Implications of advances in basic sciences for the management of addiction.

This set of papers in this issue of "Addictive Behaviors" was presented at the 2004 'Addictions' conference, which, for the first time, was held in the Southern Hemisphere, on the Sunshine Coast of Queensland, Australia. The theme of the conference, Crossing Boundaries: Implications of Advances in Basic Sciences for the Management of Addiction, speaks for itself. The papers derive from a wide range of empirical paradigms and cover issues with relevance to the development of addiction, to the maintenance of problematic use, and to assessment, treatment, and relapse. Research from Europe and the United States is represented, as well as work from Australia. An international perspective is strongly emphasized from the initial paper by Obot, Poznyak, and Moneiro, (see record 2004-19599-015) which describes the WHO Report on the Neuroscience of Psychoactive Substance Use and Dependence, and summarises some of the report's implications for policy and practice. Hall, Carter, and Morley (see record 2004-19599-014) close the issue with a paper on the wide-ranging ethical implications of advances in neuroscience research, including issues arising from the identification of high risk for addiction, the potential for coercive pharmacotherapy, use of medications to enhance function, and risks to privacy.

Uncertainty budget in the measurement of typical airborne number, surface area and mass particle distributions

The effects of particulate matter on environment and public health have been widely studied in recent years. A number of studies in the medical field have tried to identify the specific effect on human health of particulate exposure, but agreement amongst these studies on the relative importance of the particles’ size and its origin with respect to health effects is still lacking. Nevertheless, air quality standards are moving, as the epidemiological attention, towards greater focus on the smaller particles. Current air quality standards only regulate the mass of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The most reliable method used in measuring Total Suspended Particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 is the gravimetric method since it directly measures PM concentration, guaranteeing an effective traceability to international standards. This technique however, neglects the possibility to correlate short term intra-day variations of atmospheric parameters that can influence ambient particle concentration and size distribution (emission strengths of particle sources, temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed and mixing height) as well as human activity patterns that may also vary over time periods considerably shorter than 24 hours. A continuous method to measure the number size distribution and total number concentration in the range 0.014 – 20 μm is the tandem system constituted by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). In this paper, an uncertainty budget model of the measurement of airborne particle number, surface area and mass size distributions is proposed and applied for several typical aerosol size distributions. The estimation of such an uncertainty budget presents several difficulties due to i) the complexity of the measurement chain, ii) the fact that SMPS and APS can properly guarantee the traceability to the International System of Measurements only in terms of number concentration. In fact, the surface area and mass concentration must be estimated on the basis of separately determined average density and particle morphology. Keywords: SMPS-APS tandem system, gravimetric reference method, uncertainty budget, ultrafine particles.

Mathematical models for describing the shape of the in vitro unstretched human crystalline lens

We developed orthogonal least-squares techniques for fitting crystalline lens shapes, and used the bootstrap method to determine uncertainties associated with the estimated vertex radii of curvature and asphericities of five different models. Three existing models were investigated including one that uses two separate conics for the anterior and posterior surfaces, and two whole lens models based on a modulated hyperbolic cosine function and on a generalized conic function. Two new models were proposed including one that uses two interdependent conics and a polynomial based whole lens model. The models were used to describe the in vitro shape for a data set of twenty human lenses with ages 7–82 years. The two-conic-surface model (7 mm zone diameter) and the interdependent surfaces model had significantly lower merit functions than the other three models for the data set, indicating that most likely they can describe human lens shape over a wide age range better than the other models (although with the two-conic-surfaces model being unable to describe the lens equatorial region). Considerable differences were found between some models regarding estimates of radii of curvature and surface asphericities. The hyperbolic cosine model and the new polynomial based whole lens model had the best precision in determining the radii of curvature and surface asphericities across the five considered models. Most models found significant increase in anterior, but not posterior, radius of curvature with age. Most models found a wide scatter of asphericities, but with the asphericities usually being positive and not significantly related to age. As the interdependent surfaces model had lower merit function than three whole lens models, there is further scope to develop an accurate model of the complete shape of human lenses of all ages. The results highlight the continued difficulty in selecting an appropriate model for the crystalline lens shape.

Drivers' and cyclists' experiences of sharing the road : incidents, attitudes and perceptions of visibility

This study explored the beliefs and attitudes of cyclists and drivers regarding cyclist visibility, use of visibility aids and crashes involving cyclists and motorists. Data are presented for 1460 participants (622 drivers and 838 cyclists) and demonstrate that there are high rates of cyclist–vehicle crashes, many of which were reported to be due to the driver not seeing the cyclist in time to avoid a collision. A divergence in attitudes was also apparent in terms of attribution of responsibility in cyclist–vehicle conflicts on the road. While the use of visibility aids was advocated by cyclists, this was not reflected in self-reported wearing patterns, and cyclists reported that the distance at which they would be first recognised by a driver was twice that estimated by the drivers. Collectively, these results suggest that interventions should target cyclists’ use of visibility aids, which is less than optimal in this population, as well as re-educating both groups regarding visibility issues.

Synthesis and characterization of sodalite–polyimide nanocomposite membranes

Nanocomposite membranes are fabricated from sodalite nanocrystals (Sod-N) dispersed in BTDA-MDA polyimide matrices and then characterized structurally and for gas separation. No voids are found upon investigation of the interfacial contact between the inorganic and organic phases, even at a Sod-N loading of up to 35 wt.%. This is due to the functionalization of the zeolite nanocrystals with amino groups (==Si_(CH3)(CH2)3NH2), which covalently link the particles to the polyimide chains in the matrices. The addition of Sod-N increases the hydrogen-gas permeability of the membranes, while nitrogen permeability decreases. Overall, these nanocomposite membranes display substantial selectivity improvements. The sodalite–polyimide membrane containing 35 wt.% Sod-N has a hydrogen permeability of 8.0 Barrers and a H2/N2 ideal selectivity of 281 at 25 C whereas the plain polyimide membrane exhibits a hydrogen permeability of 7.0 Barrers and a H2/N2 ideal selectivity of 198 at the same testing temperature.

The role of self-efficacy in dental patients’ brushing and flossing: Testing an extended Health Belief Model

Objective: In an effort to examine the decreasing oral health trend of Australian dental patients, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was utilised to understand the beliefs underlying brushing and flossing self-care. The HBM states that perception of severity and susceptibility to inaction and an estimate of the barriers and benefits of behavioural performance influences people’s health behaviours. Self-efficacy, confidence in one’s ability to perform oral self-care, was also examined. Methods: In dental waiting rooms, a community sample (N = 92) of dental patients completed a questionnaire assessing HBM variables and self-efficacy, as well as their performance of the oral hygiene behaviours of brushing and flossing. Results: Partial support only was found for the HBM with barriers emerging as the sole HBM factor influencing brushing and flossing behaviours. Self-efficacy significantly predicted both oral hygiene behaviours also. Conclusion: Support was found for the control factors, specifically a consideration of barriers and self-efficacy, in the context of understanding dental patients’ oral hygiene decisions. Practice implications: Dental professionals should encourage patients’ self-confidence to brush and floss at recommended levels and discuss strategies that combat barriers to performance, rather than emphasising the risks of inaction or the benefits of oral self-care.

Radiological aspects of petroleum exploration and production in the sultanate of Oman

This thesis is a study of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) activity concentration, gamma dose rate and radon (222Rn) exhalation from the waste streams of large-scale onshore petroleum operations. Types of activities covered included; sludge recovery from separation tanks, sludge farming, NORM storage, scaling in oil tubulars, scaling in gas production and sedimentation in produced water evaporation ponds. Field work was conducted in the arid desert terrain of an operational oil exploration and production region in the Sultanate of Oman. The main radionuclides found were 226Ra and 210Pb (238U - series), 228Ra and 228Th (232Th - series), and 227Ac (235U - series), along with 40K. All activity concentrations were higher than the ambient soil level and varied over several orders of magnitude. The range of gamma dose rates at a 1 m height above ground for the farm treated sludge had a range of 0.06 0.43 µSv h 1, and an average close to the ambient soil mean of 0.086 ± 0.014 µSv h 1, whereas the untreated sludge gamma dose rates had a range of 0.07 1.78 µSv h 1, and a mean of 0.456 ± 0.303 µSv h 1. The geometric mean of ambient soil 222Rn exhalation rate for area surrounding the sludge was mBq m 2 s 1. Radon exhalation rates reported in oil waste products were all higher than the ambient soil value and varied over three orders of magnitude. This study resulted in some unique findings including: (i) detection of radiotoxic 227Ac in the oil scales and sludge, (ii) need of a new empirical relation between petroleum sludge activity concentrations and gamma dose rates, and (iii) assessment of exhalation of 222Rn from oil sludge. Additionally the study investigated a method to determine oil scale and sludge age by the use of inherent behaviour of radionuclides as 228Ra:226Ra and 228Th:228Ra activity ratios.