Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biosensor-based diagnostics of contaminated groundwater: assessment and remediation strategy

Shallow groundwater beneath a former airfield site in southern England has been heavily contaminated with a wide range of chlorinated solvents. The feasibility of using bacterial biosensors to complement chemical analysis and enable cost-effective, and focussed sampling has been assessed as part of a site evaluation programme. Five different biosensors, three metabolic (Vibrio fischeri, Pseudomonas fluorescens 10568 and Escherichia coli HB101) and two catabolic (Pseudomonas putida TVA8 and E. coli DH5alpha), were employed to identify areas where the availability and toxicity of pollutants is of most immediate environmental concern. The biosensors used showed different sensitivities to each other and to the groundwater samples tested. There was generally a good agreement with chemical analyses. The potential efficacy of remediation strategies was explored by coupling sample manipulation to biosensor tests. Manipulation involved sparging and charcoal treatment procedures to simulate remediative engineering solutions. Sparging was sufficient at most locations. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uptake pathways: the potential of Bayesian belief networks to assist the management, monitoring and evaluation of development-orientated research

The effectiveness of development assistance has come under renewed scrutiny in recent years. In an era of growing economic liberalisation, research organisations are increasingly being asked to account for the use of public funds by demonstrating achievements. However, in the natural resources (NR) research field, conventional economic assessment techniques have focused on quantifying the impact achieved rather understanding the process that delivered it. As a result, they provide limited guidance for planners and researchers charged with selecting and implementing future research. In response, “pathways” or logic models have attracted increased interest in recent years as a remedy to this shortcoming. However, as commonly applied these suffer from two key limitations in their ability to incorporate risk and assess variance from plan. The paper reports the results of a case study that used a Bayesian belief network approach to address these limitations and outlines its potential value as a tool to assist the planning, monitoring and evaluation of development-orientated research.

Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.

Health-related quality of life in Huntington’s Disease patients: a comparison of proxy assessment and patient self-rating using the disease-specific Huntington’s Disease health-related quality of life questionnaire (HDQoL)

Huntington’s disease (HD) is a fatal, neurodegenerative disease for which there is no known cure. Proxy evaluation is relevant for HD as its manifestation might limit the ability of persons to report their health-related quality of life (HrQoL). This study explored patient–proxy ratings of HrQoL of persons at different stages of HD, and examined factors that may affect proxy ratings. A total of 105 patient–proxy pairs completed the Huntington’s disease health-related quality of life questionnaire (HDQoL) and other established HrQoL measures (EQ-5D and SF-12v2). Proxy–patient agreement was assessed in terms of absolute level (mean ratings) and intraclass correlation. Proxies’ ratings were at a similar level to patients’ self-ratings on an overall Summary Score and on most of the six Specific Scales of the HDQoL. On the Specific Hopes and Worries Scale, proxies on average rated HrQoL as better than patients’ self-ratings, while on both the Specific Cognitive Scale and Specific Physical and Functional Scale proxies tended to rate HrQoL more poorly than patients themselves. The patient’s disease stage and mental wellbeing (SF-12 Mental Component scale) were the two factors that primarily affected proxy assessment. Proxy scores were strongly correlated with patients’ self-ratings of HrQoL, on the Summary Scale and all Specific Scales. The patient–proxy correlation was lower for patients at moderate stages of HD compared to patients at early and advanced stages. The proxy report version of the HDQoL is a useful complementary tool to self-assessment, and a promising alternative when individual patients with advanced HD are unable to self-report.

Entertainment education theory and practice in HIV/AIDS communication: a South Africa / United Kingdom comparison

Within development communication, gaps remain in theory and practice: communication innovations are taking place which either do not incorporate theory or fail to challenge the assumptions of development communication and HIV/AIDS theory. This can lead to the implementation of unsuccessful interventions that lack theoretical frameworks or to uninformed practice, making it difficult to replicate. Further, research has demonstrated that Entertainment Education (EE) interventions have a measurable impact on behaviour in areas such as HIV/AIDS prevention. Given the transitions in EE practice and evidence of its impact, EE theory and practice can contribute insight into these challenges. A pilot study investigated these dilemmas within the context of the monitoring and evaluation of development communication. Framing this discussion is the concept of South-North dialogue, using comparative analysis of EE interventions to distil lessons through contrasting experiences in two diverse settings. It holds as a principle that lessons from the experience of EE in the Southern context can inform lessons for the North. Further, comparison of the case studies can generate insights for the broader development communication field. We present four case studies, informed by key informant interviews, of EE interventions in the UK and South Africa. We address how communication is defined in planning, implementation and evaluation, highlighting how it often misses the importance of 'listening'. The case studies show that HIV/AIDS communication, and development communication more broadly, has not internalised ideas of evaluation and listening in communication. Successes in the case studies can be partially attributed to responsiveness and context-specificity rather than following rigid planning templates, such as those found in some development communication literature. This indicates the importance of flexibility and responsiveness to context for both development communication and HIV/AIDS communication.

Development and Evaluation of a Novel pH Indicator Biodegradable Film Based on Cassava Starch

A pH indicator film based on cassava starch plasticized with sucrose and inverted sugar and incorporated with grape and spinach extracts as pH indicator sources (anthocyanin and chlorophyll) has been developed, and its packaging properties have been assessed. A second-order central composite design (2(2)) with three central points and four star points was used to evaluate the mechanical properties (tensile strength, tensile strength at break, and elongation at break percentage), moisture barrier, and microstructure of the films, and its potential as a pH indicator packaging. The films were prepared by the casting technique and conditioned under controlled conditions (75% relative humidity and 23 degrees C), at least 4 days before the analyses. The materials were exposed to different pH solutions (0, 2, 7, 10, and 14) and their color parameters (L*, a*, b*, and haze) were measured by transmittance. Grape and spinach extracts have affected the material characterization. Film properties (mechanical properties and moisture barrier) were strongly influenced by extract concentration presenting lower results than for the control. Films containing a higher concentration of grape extract presented a greater color change at different pH`s suggesting that anthocyanins are more effective as pH indicators than chlorophyll or the mixture of both extracts. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 120: 1069-1079,2011

Impact assessment and quality analysis of corporate social responsability (CSR) programs of mining companies and their contribution to sustainable development in the communities they operate: case study Tenke Fungurume Mining SA in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Purpose – This case study presents an impact assessment of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs of the TFM Company in order to understand how they contribute to the sustainable development of communities in areas in which they operate. Design/Methodology/Approach - Data for this study was collected using qualitative data methods that included semi-structured interviews and Focus Group Discussions most of them audio and video recorded. Documentary analysis and a field visit were also undertaken for the purpose of quality analysis of the CSR programs on the terrain. Data collected was analyzed using the Seven Questions to sustainability (7Qs) framework, an evaluation tool developed by the Mining, Minerals and Sustainable Development (MMSD) North America chapter. Content analysis method was on the other hand used to examine the interviews and FGDs of the study participants. Findings - Results shows that CSR programs of TFM SA do contribute to community development, as there have been notable changes in the communities’ living conditions. But whether they have contributed to sustainable development is not yet the case as programs that enhance the capacity of communities and other stakeholders to support these projects development beyond the implementation stage and the mines operation lifetime need to be considered and implemented. Originality/Value – In DRC, there is paucity of information of research studies that focus on impact assessment of CSR programs in general and specifically those of mining companies and their contribution to sustainable development of local communities. Many of the available studies cover issues of minerals and conflict or conflict minerals as mostly referred to. This study addressees this gap.

Tele-education on Leprosy: Evaluation of an Educational Strategy

The purpose of this research was to evaluate educational strategies applied to a tele-education leprosy course. The curriculum was for members of the Brazilian Family Health Team and was made available through the São Paulo Telehealth Portal. The course educational strategy was based on a constructivist learning model where interactivity was emphasized. Authors assessed motivational aspects of the course using the WebMAC Professional tool. Forty-eight healthcare professionals answered the evaluation questionnaire. Adequate internal consistency was achieved (Cronbach's alpha = 0.79). More than 95% of queried items received good evaluations. Multidimensional analysis according to motivational groups of questions (STIMULATING, MEANINGFUL, ORGANIZED, EASY-TO-USE) showed high agreement. According to WebMAC's criteria, it was considered an awesome course. The tele-educational strategies implemented for leprosy disclosed high motivational scores.

Spatial Distribution of Seropositive Dogs to Leptospira spp. and Evaluation of Leptospirosis Risk Factors Using a Decision Tree

Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

Correlação entre parâmetros estimados pelos testes Colour Assessment and Diagnosis e Cambridge Colour Test na avaliação da discriminação de cores

Os testes Colour Assessment and Diagnosis (CAD) e Cambridge Colour Test (CCT) têm sido amplamente utilizados em pesquisas básicas e clínicas, devido à alta sensibilidade e especificidade de seus resultados. Estes testes utilizam diferentes paradigmas de estimulação para estimar os limiares de discriminação de cor. Pouco se sabe sobre a relação de cada paradigma na avaliação da discriminação de cor nesses testes. Sendo assim, este trabalho objetiva comparar os parâmetros de avaliação da discriminação de cor estimados pelos testes CAD e CCT em sujeitos tricromatas e com discromatopsia congênita. Foram avaliados 59 sujeitos tricromatas e 38 sujeitos discromatópsicos (16 protans, 22 deutans) com idade média de 26,32 ± 8,9 anos. Foram testados 66 sujeitos nos testes CAD e CCT, 29 sujeitos no teste CAD e 2 sujeitos no teste CCT. O fenótipo da visão de cores de todos os sujeitos foi determinado através de uma bateria de testes psicofísicos e a estimativa dos limiares de discriminação de cor foi avaliada pelos testes CAD e CCT. Os dados de limiares de discriminação de cor foram ajustados a funções de elipse. Os critérios analisados para cada sujeito foram: a área da elipse, o ângulo de rotação e tamanho dos vetores protan, deutan e tritan. Para cada um dos parâmetros foi realizada: estatística descritiva, análise da dispersão dos parâmetros entre os testes CAD e CCT e dos parâmetros em conjunto, razão entre os parâmetros, correlação dos parâmetros a três modelos matemáticos e análise de concordância. Os parâmetros de área e tamanho dos vetores deutan e tritan do subgrupo tricromata; área e tamanho do vetor tritan do subgrupo protan; e tamanho dos vetores protan e tritan do subgrupo deutan apresentaram equivalência entre os resultados de ambos os testes. Os parâmetros de área, ângulo de rotação e tamanho dos vetores protan e tritan apresentaram concordância de medidas entre os testes CAD e CCT. Fatores como as localizações distintas das coordenadas centrais dos testes CAD e CCT e a disposição espacial dos vetores no espaço de cor da CIE 1976 no teste CCT podem ter influenciado na determinação de limiares de discriminação cromática de ambos os testes. Apesar de utilizarem paradigmas distintos na configuração da estimulação, os testes CAD e CCT são equiparáveis.

EGHEP-ISFG collaborative exercise on mixture profiles of autosomal STRs (GHEP-MIX01, GHEP-MIX02 and GHEP-MIX03): Results and evaluation

One of the main objectives of the Spanish and Portuguese-Speaking Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) is to promote and contribute to the development and dissemination of scientific knowledge in the area of forensic genetics. Due to this fact, GHEP-ISFG holds different working commissions that are set up to develop activities in scientific aspects of general interest. One of them, the Mixture Commission of GHEP-ISFG, has organized annually, since 2009, a collaborative exercise on analysis and interpretation of autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) mixture profiles. Until now, three exercises have been organized (GHEP-MIX01, GHEP-MIX02 and GHEP-MIX03), with 32, 24 and 17 participant laboratories respectively. The exercise aims to give a general vision by addressing, through the proposal of mock cases, aspects related to the edition of mixture profiles and the statistical treatment. The main conclusions obtained from these exercises may be summarized as follows. Firstly, the data show an increased tendency of the laboratories toward validation of DNA mixture profiles analysis following international recommendations (ISO/IEC 17025: 2005). Secondly, the majority of discrepancies are mainly encountered in stutters positions (53.4%, 96.0% and 74.9%, respectively for the three editions). On the other hand, the results submitted reveal the importance of performing duplicate analysis by using different kits in order to reduce errors as much as possible. Regarding the statistical aspect (GHEP-MIX02 and 03), all participants employed the likelihood ratio (LR) parameter to evaluate the statistical compatibility and the formulas employed were quite similar. When the hypotheses to evaluate the LR value were locked by the coordinators (GHEP-MIX02) the results revealed a minor number of discrepancies that were mainly due to clerical reasons. However, the GHEP-MIX03 exercise allowed the participants to freely come up with their own hypotheses to calculate the LR value. In this situation the laboratories reported several options to explain the mock cases proposed and therefore significant differences between the final LR values were obtained. Complete information concerning the background of the criminal case is a critical aspect in order to select the adequate hypotheses to calculate the LR value. Although this should be a task for the judicial court to decide, it is important for the expert to account for the different possibilities and scenarios, and also offer this expertise to the judge. In addition, continuing education in the analysis and interpretation of mixture DNA profiles may also be a priority for the vast majority of forensic laboratories. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dental anxiety: prevalence and evaluation of psychometric properties of a scale

Aim: To estimate the reliability and validity of the Dental Anxiety Scale (DAS) and identify the prevalence and the effect of the socio-demographic characteristics of dental anxiety, in a sample of 212 adults. Methods: The psychometric sensitivity of the scale was assessed. A confirmatory factor analysis was performed, and the convergent validity and internal consistency were determined. The prevalence of anxiety was estimated, and the effect of socio-demographic variables on anxiety was assessed using structural equation modelling. Results: The participants’ mean age was 33.5 (SD = 15.6) years, and 62.3% were female. There was an adequate factorial adjustment of the scale in this sample. The convergent validity and internal consistency were adequate in the one-factor model. Regarding two-factor model, there was a high correlation (r) among the factors, which jeopardized the discriminant validity. A total of 47.6% of the participants (IC95% = 40.9 - 54.4) presented low levels of anxiety, 32.5% (IC95% = 26.2 - 38.9) moderate levels, and 12.3% (IC95% = 7.8 - 16.7) exacerbated levels. There was a non-significant effect of gender, age and education on the anxiety levels of this sample. Conclusion: We concluded that the one-factor model presented better psychometric qualities, that anxiety was highly prevalent and there was no significant effect of the demographic variables on anxiety, in this sample

How to Better Prepare for Assessment and Create a More Technologically Advanced Classroom

In this action research study of my classroom of 8th grade mathematics, I investigated how to better prepare these students for quizzes and how technology can be used in the classroom. I discovered that there are many different ways to challenge students and help them prepare for assessments. There are also many ways to use technology in the classroom if one has the opportunities to use some of the tools, such as Power Point and Algebra Tiles. As a result of this research, I plan to increase the scores on state standards while also allowing the students to enjoy technology during this process.