894 resultados para [JEL:E3] Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles


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At head of title: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.

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Title from cover.

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This paper develops an overlapping-generations model in which agents invest in health to prolong life in both working and retirement periods. It explores how unfunded social security with or without health subsidies affects life expectancy, economic growth, and welfare. In particular, by extending life at a possible cost of capital accumulation, health subsidies and a pay-as-you-go pension can improve welfare, especially in the short run.

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We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This study Measures the effect of changes in net housing and financial wealth oil household consumption using Australian data over the period Q2:1988-Q1:2003. It is found a permanent one dollar rise in housing wealth leads to a six cent increase in consumption, three times the effect of financial wealth. The result speaks strongly against the notion of assets fungibility.. and Suggests that a sharp movement in house prices is potentially more disruptive than a corresponding movement ill financial asset prices.

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As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

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This paper analyses the asymmetries in the response of petrol prices to oil price shocks. We show that previous work, based on the determination of asymmetric responses, can be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries in short term dynamics. The paper shows that a significant determinant of the response of petrol prices to oil price changes, is the extent to which petrol price can be seen to have departed from its long run equilibrium level.

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The petrol industry has been investigated twice by the Monopolies and Mergers Commission in the last 20 years. On both occasions the MMC found that the conduct of the companies was not against the public interest. These findings were based on the perceived stable relationship between oil and petrol prices. This paper develops a model of petrol price using a co-integration approach, concluding that one must question the findings of the MMC.

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This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

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In compliance with the economic internationalization movement and the development of Asia-Pacific Regional Operation Center (APROC) in Taiwan, international business has become more and more important. To sustain favorable trade balances every year and the promotion of APROC in Taiwan, more and more talent with knowledge and skills of Business English are needed. As a consequence, it is necessary to make Business English curriculum appropriate to meet the emerging needs.^ Two groups, experimental and control, received the revised or traditional Business English course to answer the question, "Does the Business English curriculum at Tainan Woman's College of Arts & Technology (TWCAT) meet the needs of students?" Ninety-five subjects were randomly selected from the commercial departments at TWCAT and then randomly assigned to the two groups. In addition, the Business English scores of the subjects' previous semester were collected and analyzed to justify the random selection and assignment. The finding was that their initial equivalence was proved.^ A questionnaire for students and another one for the business community were administered to facilitate data collection and analysis. The results of the questionnaires were used to modify the curriculum content of Business English.^ A final-term examination was given to the subjects at the end of the pilot study of Business English in early May of 1998. The resulting scores of the examination were used to determine if there was a significant difference in learning achievement between the students of the two groups.^ Using Independent Samples Test, significant results indicated that the experimental group had higher level of learning Business English than the control group. The finding supports the hypothesis of this study.^ Recommendations based on these results are that the revised curriculum be adapted and used by TWCAT because it better meets student needs. ^

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Este artículo hace una reconstrucción crítica de la visión de Keynes sobre la relación entre gasto público, tipo de interés, salarios y desempleo, tal y como se formula en su Tratado sobre el Dinero. El trabajo defiende que el enfoque de Keynes lleva a propuestas de política económica que enfatizan la necesidad de intervención estatal directa en la provisión de bienes y servicios. Esta conclusión se deriva de una interpretación circuitista de su obra.

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This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence that the emissions-income elasticity is larger during individual years of economic expansion as compared to recession. Significant evidence of asymmetry emerges when effects over longer periods are considered. We find that economic growth tends to increase emissions not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. Delayed effects - especially noticeable in the road transport sector - mean that emissions tend to grow more quickly after booms and more slowly after recessions. Emissions are more sensitive to fluctuations in industrial value added than agricultural value added, with services being an intermediate case. On the expenditure side, growth in consumption and growth in investment have similar implications for national emissions. External shocks have a relatively large emissions impact, and the short-run emissions-income elasticity does not appear to decline as incomes increase. Economic growth and emissions have been more tightly linked in fossil-fuel rich countries.