A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.

Twenty-first-century climate impacts from a declining Arctic sea ice cover

A steady decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed over recent decades. General circulation models predict further decreases under increasing greenhouse gas scenarios. Sea ice plays an important role in the climate system in that it influences ocean-to-atmosphere fluxes, surface albedo, and ocean buoyancy. The aim of this study is to isolate the climate impacts of a declining Arctic sea ice cover during the current century. The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) is forced with observed sea ice from 1980 to 2000 (obtained from satellite passive microwave radiometer data derived with the Bootstrap algorithm) and predicted sea ice reductions until 2100 under one moderate scenario and one severe scenario of ice decline, with a climatological SST field and increasing SSTs. Significant warming of the Arctic occurs during the twenty-first century (mean increase of between 1.6° and 3.9°C), with positive anomalies of up to 22°C locally. The majority of this is over ocean and limited to high latitudes, in contrast to recent observations of Northern Hemisphere warming. When a climatological SST field is used, statistically significant impacts on climate are only seen in winter, despite prescribing sea ice reductions in all months. When correspondingly increasing SSTs are incorporated, changes in climate are seen in both winter and summer, although the impacts in summer are much smaller. Alterations in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns are more widespread than temperature, extending down to midlatitude storm tracks. Results suggest that areas of Arctic land ice may even undergo net accumulation due to increased precipitation that results from loss of sea ice. Intensification of storm tracks implies that parts of Europe may experience higher precipitation rates.

Anti-Slavic imagery in German radical nationalist discourse at the turn of the twentieth century: a prelude to Nazi ideology?

By applying methods of cognitive metaphor theory, Jaworska examines metaphorical scenarios employed in the discourse of anti-Slavism, which featured prominently in radical nationalist propaganda in Germany at the turn of the twentieth century. She does so by analysing metaphorical expressions used to refer to the Polish population living in the eastern provinces of Prussia, in the so-called Ostmark. Her article is based on an analysis of a range of pamphlets and newspaper articles written by some of the leading figures of two nationalist organizations: the Pan-German League (Alldeutscher Verband) and the Eastern Marches Society(Ostmarkenverein). The main research questions it addresses are: What kind of metaphoric scenarios were used to depict the Polish minority, and to what extent were the metaphorical patterns of anti-Slavic imagery similar to those employed in the antisemitic propaganda of the Nazi era? Is there a discursive continuity between the radical nationalism of imperial Germany and the National Socialism of the Third Reich at the level of metaphorical scenarios? Ultimately, Jaworska attempts to contribute to a better understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying radical and essentially racist attitudes.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

Characterising the use of urban space: a geochemical case study from Calleva Atrebatum (Silchester, Hampshire, UK) Insula IX during the late first/early second century AD

The geochemical analysis of soil samples from the Roman town of Calleva Atrebatum (Silchester, Hampshire, UK) has been undertaken in order to enhance our understanding of urban occupation during the late first/early second century AD. Samples taken from a variety of occupation deposits within several, contemporary timber buildings, including associated hearths, have been analysed using laboratory-based x-ray fluorescence for a suite of elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Sr, P and Ca). The patterns of elemental enrichment seen across the site have allowed us to compare and contrast the buildings that were occupied during this time in an attempt to distinguish different uses, such as between domestic and work-space. Two of the buildings stand out as having high concentrations of elements which suggest that they were dirtier work spaces, whilst other buildings appear to be have lower chemical loadings suggesting they were cleaner.

The historic religious buildings of Ribeira Grande: implementation of christian models in the early colonies, 15th till 17th century, on the example of Cape Verde Islands

Rui Carita

Volatile flavour constituent patterns of terras madeirenses red wines extracted by dynamic headspace solid‐phase microextraction

A suitable analytical procedure based on static headspace solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by thermal desorption gas chromatography–ion trap mass spectrometry detection (GC–ITDMS), was developed and applied for the qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis of volatile components of Portuguese Terras Madeirenses red wines. The headspace SPME method was optimised in terms of fibre coating, extraction time, and extraction temperature. The performance of three commercially available SPME fibres, viz. 100 lm polydimethylsiloxane; 85 lm polyacrylate, PA; and 50/30 lm divinylbenzene/carboxen on polydimethylsiloxane, was evaluated and compared. The highest amounts extracted, in terms of the maximum signal recorded for the total volatile composition, were obtained with a PA coating fibre at 308C during an extraction time of 60 min with a constant stirring at 750 rpm, after saturation of the sample with NaCl (30%, w/v). More than sixty volatile compounds, belonging to different biosynthetic pathways, have been identified, including fatty acid ethyl esters, higher alcohols, fatty acids, higher alcohol acetates, isoamyl esters, carbonyl compounds, and monoterpenols/C13-norisoprenoids.

Skin lesions in envenoming by cnidarians (Portuguese man-of-war and jellyfish): etiology and severity of accidents on the Brazilian coast

This work attempts to establish dermatological identification patterns for Brazilian enidarian species and it probable correlation with envenoming, severity In all observational prospective study, one hundred and twenty-eight patients from the North Coast re-ion of São Paulo State, Brazil were seen between 2002 and 2008. About 80% of these Showed only local effects (erythema, edema, and pain) with small, less than 20 cm, oval or round skin marks and impressions from Small tentacles. Approximately 20% of the victims had long, more than 20 cm, linear and crossed marks with frequent systemic phenomena, such as malaise, vomiting, dyspnea, and tachycardia. The former is compatible with the common hydromedusa from Southeast and Southern Brazil (Olindias sambaquiensis). The long linear marks with intense pain and systemic phenomena are compatible with envenoming, by the box jellyfish Tamoya haplonema and Chiropsalmus quadrumanus and the hydrozoan Portuguese man-of-war (Physalis physalis). There was an association between Skin marks and probable accident etiology. This simple observation rule can be indicative of severity as the Cubozoa Class (box jellyfish) and Portuguese man-of-war cause the most severe accidents. In such cases, medical attention, including intensive care, is important, as the systemic manifestations call be associated with death.

Development cycles, political regimes and international migration: Argentina in the 20th century

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America in the late 20th century: evidence and interpretation

Includes bibliography

Argentine industry in the early twenty-first century (2003-2008)

Includes bibliography

Entre a sacristia e o laboratório: os intelectuais protestantes brasileiros e a produção da cultura (1903-1942)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O aspecto verbal em Apolodoro: um estudo baseado em corpus sobre os padrões de usos aspectuais em Biblioteca

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sândi vocálico externo no Poruguês Arcaico

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)