Emissions distribution in post-Kyoto international negotiations: a policy

An abundant scientific literature about climate change economics points out that the future participation of developing countries in international environmental policies will depend on their amount of pay offs inside and outside specific agreements. These studies are aimed at analyzing coalitions stability typically through a game theoretical approach. Though these contributions represent a corner stone in the research field investigating future plausible international coalitions and the reasons behind the difficulties incurred over time to implement emissions stabilizing actions, they cannot disentangle satisfactorily the role that equality play in inducing poor regions to tackle global warming. If we focus on the Stern Review findings stressing that climate change will generate heavy damages and policy actions will be costly in a finite time horizon, we understand why there is a great incentive to free ride in order to exploit benefits from emissions reduction efforts of others. The reluctance of poor countries in joining international agreements is mainly supported by historical responsibility of rich regions in generating atmospheric carbon concentration, whereas rich countries claim that emissions stabilizing policies will be effective only when developing countries will join them.Scholars recently outline that a perceived fairness in the distribution of emissions would facilitate a wide spread participation in international agreements. In this paper we overview the literature about distributional aspects of emissions by focusing on those contributions investigating past trends of emissions distribution through empirical data and future trajectories through simulations obtained by integrated assessment models. We will explain methodologies used to elaborate data and the link between real data and those coming from simulations. Results from this strand of research will be interpreted in order to discuss future negotiations for post Kyoto agreements that will be the focus of the next. Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen at the end of 2009. A particular attention will be devoted to the role that technological change will play in affecting the distribution of emissions over time and to how spillovers and experience diffusion could influence equality issues and future outcomes of policy negotiations.

Balanç de carbó atmosfèric: raó entre les emissions de metà de les vaques i el segrest forestal de CO2

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és determinar la capacitat de segrest de CO2 d’un bosc dels Pirineus, per tal de reduir el seu efecte hivernacle, en relació a l’impacte climàtic que tindrien les emissions de metà de les vaques. La metodologia s’ha basat en estimar la producció de fusta a partir d’inventaris forestals d’un bosc del Pallars Sobirà, i calcular-ne el segrest de CO2. Per altra banda, s’ha estimat bibliogràficament les emissions de metà d’una vaca. A partir de factors de conversió s’ha estimat la superfície de bosc que compensaria l’efecte hivernacle de les emissions de metà d’una vaca durant un any. El valor obtingut és de 0,727 hectàrees de bosc per vaca i any. Amb aquest valor s’ha estimat la superfície de bosc necessària per compensar les emissions de metà de la població de vaques de Catalunya. Aquests resultats són aproximats, donades les diferències en el creixement dels boscos de Catalunya. Aquest estudi dóna una dada comprensible que posa de manifest el concepte de balanç de carboni i els diferents elements que el formen.

Relationship between technological progress, capital elasticity and emissions of industrial pollutants for the production sectors in Catalonia

As is known, the Kyoto Protocol proposes to reinforce national policies for emission reduction and, furthermore, to cooperate with other contracting parties. In this context, it would be necessary to assess these emissions, both in general and specifically, by pollutants and/or among productive sectors. The object of this paper is precisely to estimate the polluting emissions of industrial origin in Catalonia in the year 2001, in a multivariate context which explicitly allows a distinction to be made between the polluter and/or the productive sector causing this emission. Six pollutants considered, four directly related to greenhouse effect. A multi-level model, with two levels, pollutants and productive sectors, was specified. Both technological progress and elasticity of capital were introduced as random effects. Hence, it has been permitted that these coefficients vary according to one or other level. The most important finding in this paper is that elasticity of capital has been estimated as very non-elastic, with a range which varies between 0.162 (the paper industry) and 0.556 (commerce). In fact, and generally speaking, the greater capital the sector has, the less elasticity of capital has been estimated. Key words: Kyoto protocol, multilevel model, technological progress

Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems: An application to Spanish CO2 emissions

Analysis of gas emissions by the input-output subsystem approach provides detailed insight into pollution generation in an economy. Structural decomposition analysis, on the other hand, identifies the factors behind the changes in key variables over time. Extending the input-output subsystem model to account for the changes in these variables reveals the channels by which environmental burdens are caused and transmitted throughout the production system. In this paper we propose a decomposition of the changes in the components of CO2 emissions captured by an input-output subsystems representation. The empirical application is for the Spanish service sector, and the economic and environmental data are for years 1990 and 2000. Our results show that services increased their CO2 emissions mainly because of a rise in emissions generated by non-services to cover the final demand for services. In all service activities, the decomposed effects show an increase in CO2 emissions due to a decrease in emission coefficients (i.e., emissions per unit of output) compensated by an increase in emissions caused both by the input-output coefficients and the rise in demand for services. Finally, large asymmetries exist not only in the quantitative changes in the CO2 emissions of the various services but also in the decomposed effects of these changes. Keywords: structural decomposition analysis, input-output subsystems, CO2 emissions, service sector.

CO2 emissions and economic activity: heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series

This paper explores the homogeneity of the functional form, the parameters, and the turning point, when appropriate, of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries (28 OECD, Brazil, China, and India) during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis. With a sample highly overlapped over time between countries, the result reveals that the homogeneity across countries is rejected, both in functional form and in the parameters of long term relationship. This confirms the relevance of considering the heterogeneity in exploring the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid spurious parameter estimates and infer a wrong behavior of the functional form, which could lead to induce that the relationship is reversed when in fact it is direct.

Cross-country polarisation in CO2 emissions per capita in the European Union: changes and explanatory factors

In this study, we analyse the degree of polarisation-a concept fundamentally different from that of inequality-in the international distribution of CO2 emissions per capita in the European Union. It is analytically relevant to examine the degree of instability inherent to a distribution and, in the analysed case, the likelihood that the distribution and its evolution will increase or decrease the chances of reaching an agreement. Two approaches were used to measure polarisation: the endogenous approach, in which countries are grouped according to their similarity in terms of emissions, and the exogenous approach, in which countries are grouped geographically. Our findings indicate a clear decrease in polarisation since the mid-1990s, which can essentially be explained by the fact that the different groups of countries have converged (i.e. antagonism among the CO2 emitters has decreased) as the contribution of energy intensity to between-group differences has decreased. This lower degree of polarisation in CO2 distribution suggests a situation more conducive to the possibility of reaching EU-wide agreements on the mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Inventari de CO2 a l’àrea de Barcelona com exemple d’emissions de gasos amb efecte hivernacle: càlcul de les emissions amb les eines de SIG i publicació dels resultats amb software lliure

El present document és la memòria descriptiva dels treballs realitzats per Matthias Wozel durant el projecte final del Màster en Tecnologies de la Informació Geogràfica, 12ª edició, durant el transcurs del conveni de col·labració entre el Departament de Geografia i AUMA Consultores en medio ambiente y energía SL. El projecte final consisteix, en primer lloc, en l’elaboració d’un inventari d’emissions de CO2 causades per la combustió i per processos industrials per a l’àrea de Barcelona per l’any 2008. L’inventari diferencia les emissions segons els tipus d’activitat: trànsit, port, aeroport, focus industrials, singulars i centrals elèctriques i focus domèstics i comercials. A la segona part del projecte es publiquen els resultats de l’inventari a una aplicació web amb software lliure

Estudi de les càrregues ambientals del compostatge casolà. Simulació d'un sistema de compostatge domèstic i determinació d'emissions de gasos contaminants

Aquest treball s’enfoca cap l’anàlisi de les emissions de gasos amb un potencial impacte negatiu sobre l’entorn que es poden emetre a l’atmosfera durant el compostatge casolà com són el metà i l’òxid nitrós pel seu paper de gasos d’efecte hivernacle i l’amoníac, però sense oblidar el seguiment dels paràmetres del procés en si i la determinació de la qualitat del compost produït. Durant poc més de 6 mesos s’ha simulat un sistema de compostatge casolà tal i com podria donar‐se en un domicili particular i s’ha confirmat la seva eficàcia en la reducció en pes del residu tractat així com l’obtenció d’un producte final altament estable i d’una qualitat més que acceptable. Pel que fa a les emissions de gasos, les quantitats determinades no són menyspreables. L’experiment s’ha realitzat per triplicat. Les emissions són molt erràtiques i no s’han trobat patrons clars en la seva evolució durant el procés de compostatge més enllà d’una certa correlació entre les emissions d’amoníac i la diferència de temperatures entre l’ambient i l’interior dels compostadors. Cal destacat un elevat grau de biaix en la determinació d’emissions gasoses a petita escala, com és el cas del compostatge casolà. Finalment constatar que la generació de lixiviats en el compostatge domèstic pot ser important donat el contingut en aigua de la matèria orgànica tractada a nivell casolà i el limitat accés a material estructurant sec que es té per a compensar‐les.

Economic structure and key sectors analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in Uruguay

This paper identifies the key sectors in greenhouse gas emissions of the Uruguayan economy through input-output analysis. This allows to precisely determine the role played by the different productive sectors and their relationship with other sectors in the relation between the Uruguayan productive structure and atmospheric pollution. In order to guide policy design for GHG reduction, we decompose sectors liability between the pollution generated through their own production processes and the pollution indirectly generated in the production processes of other sectors. The results show that all the key polluting sectors for the different contaminants considered are relevant because of their own emissions, except for the sector Motor vehicles and oil retail trade, which is relevant in CO2 emissions because of its pure, both backward and forward, linkages. Finally, the best policy channels for controlling and reducing GHGs emissions are identified, and compared with the National Climate Change Response Plan (NCCRP) lines of action.

Characterization of lead-recycling facility emissions at various workplaces : major insights for sanitary risks assessment

Most available studies on lead smelter emissions deal with the environmental impact of outdoor particles, but only a few focus on air quality at workplaces. The objective of this study is to physically and chemically characterize the Pb-rich particles emitted at different workplaces in a lead recycling plant. A multi-scale characterization was conducted from bulk analysis to the level of individual particles, to assess the particles properties in relation with Pb speciation and availability. Process PM from various origins were sampled and then compared; namely Furnace and Refining PM respectively present in the smelter and at refinery workplaces, Emissions PM present in channeled emissions.These particles first differed by their morphology and size distribution, with finer particles found in emissions. Differences observed in chemical composition could be explained by the industrial processes. All PM contained the same major phases (Pb, PbS, PbO, PbSO4 and PbO·PbSO4) but differed on the nature and amount of minor phases. Due to high content in PM, Pb concentrations in the CaCl2 extractant reached relatively high values (40 mg.L-1). However, the ratios (soluble/total) of CaCl2 exchangeable Pb were relatively low (< 0.02%) in comparison with Cd (up to 18%). These results highlight the interest to assess the soluble fractions of all metals (minor and major) and discuss both total metal concentrations and ratios for risk evaluations. In most cases metal extractability increased with decreasing size of particles, in particular, lead exchangeability was highest for channeled emissions. Such type of study could help in the choice of targeted sanitary protection procedures and for further toxicological investigations. In the present context, particular attention is given to Emissions and Furnace PM. Moreover, exposure to other metals than Pb should be considered. [Authors]

CO2 emissions embodied in international trade: A multiregional Inputoutput model for Spain

As a result of globalization and free trade agreements, international trade is enormously growing and inevitably putting more pressure on the environment over the last few decades. This has drawn the attention of both environmentalist and economist in response to the ever growing concerns of climate change and urgent need of international action for its mitigation. In this work we aim at analyzing the implication of international trade in terms of CO2 between Spain and its important partners using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. A fully integrated 13 regions MRIO model is constructed to examine the pollution responsibility of Spain both from production and consumption perspectives. The empirical results show that Spain is a net importer of CO2 emissions which is equivalent to 29% of its emission due to production. Even though the leading partner with regard to import values are countries such as Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain, the CO2 embodied due to trade with China takes the largest share. This is mainly due to the importation of energy intensive products from China coupled with Chinese poor energy mix which is dominated by coal-power plant. The largest portion (67%) of the global imported CO2 emissions is due to intermediate demand requirements by production sectors. Products such as Motor vehicles, chemicals, a variety of machineries and equipments, textile and leather products, construction materials are the key imports that drive the emissions due to their production in the respective exporting countries. Being at its peak in 2005, the Construction sector is the most responsible activity behind both domestic and imported emissions.

2007 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Selected Iowa Source Categories

The Department’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a refinement of previous statewide inventories. It is a bottom-up inventory of two sectors – fossil fuel combustion at federally-recognized major sources of air pollution and fossil fuel combustion and ethanol fermentation at dry mill ethanol plants. This is the first bottomup greenhouse gas inventory conducted for Iowa and the first bottom-up greenhouse gas inventory of ethanol plants in the nation that the Department is aware of. In a bottom-up inventory, facility-specific activity data is used to calculate emissions. In a top-down inventory, aggregate activity data is used to calculate emissions. For example, this bottom-up inventory calculates greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel combustion at each individual facility instead of using the total amount of fossil fuel combusted state-wide, which would be a top-down inventory method. The advantage to a bottom-up inventory is that the calculations are more accurate than a top-down inventory. However, because the two methods differ, the results from a bottom-up inventory are not directly comparable to a top-down inventory.

North-South convergence and the allocation of CO2 emissions

We postulate a two-region world, comprised of North (calibrated after the US) and South(calibrated after China). Our optimization results show the compatibility of the following threedesiderata:(1) Global CO2 emissions follow a conservative path that leads to the stabilizationof concentrations at 450 ppm.(2) North and South converge to a path of sustained growth at 1% per year (28.2%per generation) in 2075.(3) During the transition to the steady state, North also grows at 1% per year whileSouth s rates of growth are markedly higher.The transition paths require a drastic reduction of the share of emissions allocated to North,large investments in knowledge, both in North and South, as well as very large investments ineducation in South. Surprisingly, in order to sustain North s utility growth rate, some output mustbe transferred from South to North during the transition.Although undoubtedly subject to many caveats, our results support a degree of optimism byproviding prima facie evidence of the possibility of tackling climate change in a way that is fairboth across generations and across regions while allowing for positive rates of humandevelopment.

The policy relevance of wear emissions from road transport, now and in the future : an international workshop report and consensus statement

Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear, and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper, it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies.