trEST, trGEN and Hits: access to databases of predicted protein sequences.

High throughput genome (HTG) and expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences are currently the most abundant nucleotide sequence classes in the public database. The large volume, high degree of fragmentation and lack of gene structure annotations prevent efficient and effective searches of HTG and EST data for protein sequence homologies by standard search methods. Here, we briefly describe three newly developed resources that should make discovery of interesting genes in these sequence classes easier in the future, especially to biologists not having access to a powerful local bioinformatics environment. trEST and trGEN are regularly regenerated databases of hypothetical protein sequences predicted from EST and HTG sequences, respectively. Hits is a web-based data retrieval and analysis system providing access to precomputed matches between protein sequences (including sequences from trEST and trGEN) and patterns and profiles from Prosite and Pfam. The three resources can be accessed via the Hits home page (http://hits. isb-sib.ch).

Novel soluble HLA-A2/MELAN-A complexes selectively stain a differentiation defective subpopulation of CD8+ T cells in patients with melanoma.

Multimeric MHC I-peptide complexes containing phycoerythrin-streptavidin are widely used to detect and investigate antigen-specific CD8+ (and CD4+) T cells. Because such reagents are heterogeneous, we compared their binding characteristics with those of monodisperse dimeric, tetrameric and octameric complexes containing linkers of variable length and flexibility on Melan-A-specific CD8+ T cell clones and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from HLA-A*0201(+) melanoma patients. Striking binding differences were observed for different defined A2/Melan-A(26-35) complexes on T cells depending on their differentiation stage. In particular, short dimeric but not octameric A2/Melan-A(26-35) complexes selectively and avidly stained incompletely differentiated effector-memory T cells clones and populations expressing CD27 and CD28 and low levels of cytolytic mediators (granzymes and perforin). This subpopulation was found in PBMC from all six melanoma patients analyzed and proliferated on peptide stimulation with only modest phenotypic changes. By contrast influenza matrix(58-66) -specific CD8+ PBMC from nine HLA-A*0201(+) healthy donors were efficiently stained by A2/Flu matrix(58-61) multimers, but not dimer and upon peptide stimulation proliferated and differentiated from memory into effector T cells. Thus PBMC from melanoma patients contain a differentiation defective sub-population of Melan-A-specific CD8+ T cells that can be selectively and efficiently stained by short dimeric A2/Melan- A(26-35) complexes, which makes them directly accessible for longitudinal monitoring and further investigation.

The additive genetic variance after bottlenecks is affected by the number of loci involved in epistatic interactions.

We investigated the role of the number of loci coding for a neutral trait on the release of additive variance for this trait after population bottlenecks. Different bottleneck sizes and durations were tested for various matrices of genotypic values, with initial conditions covering the allele frequency space. We used three different types of matrices. First, we extended Cheverud and Routman's model by defining matrices of "pure" epistasis for three and four independent loci; second, we used genotypic values drawn randomly from uniform, normal, and exponential distributions; and third we used two models of simple metabolic pathways leading to physiological epistasis. For all these matrices of genotypic values except the dominant metabolic pathway, we find that, as the number of loci increases from two to three and four, an increase in the release of additive variance is occurring. The amount of additive variance released for a given set of genotypic values is a function of the inbreeding coefficient, independently of the size and duration of the bottleneck. The level of inbreeding necessary to achieve maximum release in additive variance increases with the number of loci. We find that additive-by-additive epistasis is the type of epistasis most easily converted into additive variance. For a wide range of models, our results show that epistasis, rather than dominance, plays a significant role in the increase of additive variance following bottlenecks.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence in primary care settings: a multinational comparison.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the first-line pharmacotherapies (nicotine gum, patch, spray, inhaler, and bupropion) for smoking cessation across six Western countries-Canada, France, Spain, Switzerland, the United States, and the United Kingdom. DESIGN AND STUDY POPULATION: A Markov-chain cohort model to simulate two cohorts of smokers: (1) a reference cohort given brief cessation counselling by a general practitioner (GP); (2) a treatment cohort given counselling plus pharmacotherapy. Effectiveness expressed as odds ratios for quitting associated with pharmacotherapies. Costs based on the additional physician time required and retail prices of the medications. INTERVENTIONS: Addition of each first-line pharmacotherapy to GP cessation counselling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per life-year saved associated with pharmacotherapies. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for counselling only ranged from US190 dollars in Spain to 773 dollars in the UK for men, and from 288 dollars in Spain to 1168 dollars in the UK for women. The incremental cost per life-year saved for gum ranged from 2230 dollars for men in Spain to 7643 dollars for women in the US; for patch from 1758 dollars for men in Spain to 5131 dollars for women in the UK; for spray from 1935 dollars for men in Spain to 7969 dollars for women in the US; for inhaler from 3480 dollars for men in Switzerland to 8700 dollars for women in France; and for bupropion from 792 dollars for men in Canada to 2922 dollars for women in the US. In sensitivity analysis, changes in discount rate, treatment effectiveness, and natural quit rate had the strongest influences on cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of the pharmacotherapies varied significantly across the six study countries, however, in each case, the results would be considered favourable as compared to other common preventive pharmacotherapies.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Cost-effectiveness of low-molecular-weight heparin for treatment of pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) appears to be safe and effective for treating pulmonary embolism (PE), but its cost-effectiveness has not been assessed. METHODS: We built a Markov state-transition model to evaluate the medical and economic outcomes of a 6-day course with fixed-dose LMWH or adjusted-dose unfractionated heparin (UFH) in a hypothetical cohort of 60-year-old patients with acute submassive PE. Probabilities for clinical outcomes were obtained from a meta-analysis of clinical trials. Cost estimates were derived from Medicare reimbursement data and other sources. The base-case analysis used an inpatient setting, whereas secondary analyses examined early discharge and outpatient treatment with LMWH. Using a societal perspective, strategies were compared based on lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: Inpatient treatment costs were higher for LMWH treatment than for UFH (dollar 13,001 vs dollar 12,780), but LMWH yielded a greater number of QALYs than did UFH (7.677 QALYs vs 7.493 QALYs). The incremental costs of dollar 221 and the corresponding incremental effectiveness of 0.184 QALYs resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dollar 1,209/QALY. Our results were highly robust in sensitivity analyses. LMWH became cost-saving if the daily pharmacy costs for LMWH were < dollar 51, if > or = 8% of patients were eligible for early discharge, or if > or = 5% of patients could be treated entirely as outpatients. CONCLUSION: For inpatient treatment of PE, the use of LMWH is cost-effective compared to UFH. Early discharge or outpatient treatment in suitable patients with PE would lead to substantial cost savings.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Cost effectiveness and cost utility of risedronate for osteoporosis treatment and fracture prevention in women: a Swiss perspective.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of risedronate compared to no intervention in postmenopausal osteoporotic women in a Swiss perspective. METHODS: A previously validated Markov model was populated with epidemiological and cost data specific to Switzerland and published utility values, and run on a population of 1,000 women of 70 years with established osteoporosis and previous vertebral fracture, treated over 5 years with risedronate 35 mg weekly or no intervention (base case), and five cohorts (according to age at therapy start) with eight risk factor distributions and three lengths of residual effects. RESULTS: In the base case population, the ICER of averting a hip fracture and the ICUR per quality-adjusted life year gained were both dominant. In the presence of a previous vertebral fracture, the ICUR was below euro45,000 (pound30,000) in all the scenarios. For all osteoporotic women>or=70 years of age with at least one risk factor, the ICUR was below euro45,000 or the intervention may even be cost saving. Age at the start of therapy and the fracture risk profile had a significant impact on results. CONCLUSION: Assuming a 2-year residual effect, that ICUR of risedronate in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis is below accepted thresholds from the age of 65 and even cost saving above the age of 70 with at least one risk factor.

Stochastic models and numerical algorithms for a class of regulatory gene networks.

Regulatory gene networks contain generic modules, like those involving feedback loops, which are essential for the regulation of many biological functions (Guido et al. in Nature 439:856-860, 2006). We consider a class of self-regulated genes which are the building blocks of many regulatory gene networks, and study the steady-state distribution of the associated Gillespie algorithm by providing efficient numerical algorithms. We also study a regulatory gene network of interest in gene therapy, using mean-field models with time delays. Convergence of the related time-nonhomogeneous Markov chain is established for a class of linear catalytic networks with feedback loops.

The cost effectiveness of pharmacological smoking cessation therapies in developing countries: a case study in the Seychelles

OBJECTIVE: To examine the incremental cost effectiveness of the five first line pharmacological smoking cessation therapies in the Seychelles and other developing countries. DESIGN: A Markov chain cohort simulation. SUBJECTS: Two simulated cohorts of smokers: (1) a reference cohort given physician counselling only; (2) a treatment cohort given counselling plus cessation therapy. INTERVENTION: Addition of each of the five pharmacological cessation therapies to physician provided smoking cessation counselling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per life-year saved (LYS) associated with the five pharmacotherapies. Effectiveness expressed as odds ratios for quitting associated with pharmacotherapies. Costs based on the additional physician time required and retail prices of the medications. RESULTS: Based on prices for currently available generic medications on the global market, the incremental cost per LYS for a 45 year old in the Seychelles was 599 US dollars for gum and 227 dollars for bupropion. Assuming US treatment prices as a conservative estimate, the incremental cost per LYS was significantly higher, though still favourable in comparison to other common medical interventions: 3712 dollars for nicotine gum, 1982 dollars for nicotine patch, 4597 dollars for nicotine spray, 4291 dollars for nicotine inhaler, and 1324 dollars for bupropion. Cost per LYS increased significantly upon application of higher discount rates, which may be used to reflect relatively high opportunity costs for health expenditures in developing countries with highly constrained resources and high overall mortality. CONCLUSION: Pharmacological cessation therapy can be highly cost effective as compared to other common medical interventions in low mortality, middle income countries, particularly if medications can be procured at low prices.

Missed appointments in an outpatient clinic for adolescents, an approach to predict the risk of missing.

PURPOSE: To predict the risk of an adolescent patient to miss an appointment, based on the previous appointments and on the characteristics of the patient and the appointment. METHODS: Two thousand one hundred ninety-three (1873 females) patients aged 12 to 20 years having scheduled at least four appointments were included. We assessed the rate of missed nonexcused appointments of each patient. Second, a Markovian multilevel model was used to predict the risk of defaulting. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of the patients have not missed even once, and 14% of females and 17% of males have missed &gt;25% of their appointments. Females show two types of behaviors (an abstract concept that groups individuals based on a combination of their appointment-keeping and their recorded type of healthcare need) depending on the diagnosis. Somatic, gynecology, violence, and counseling diagnoses are mostly grouped together. In this group, having already missed and having an appointment with a paramedical provider increases the risk of missing. In the second group (eating disorders and psychiatric diagnoses) having already missed and a longer delay between appointments influence the risk of missing, although the risk is lower for this latter group. Males only show one type of behavior regarding missed appointments. Having missed a previous appointment, being older, having cancelled the next to last appointment and the type of diagnosis explain the risk of missing. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who have already defaulted have a higher risk of defaulting again. Means of control regarding missed appointments should consequently focus on defaulters, to decrease the associated workload. Reminders could be a solution for the follow-up appointments scheduled with a long delay.

RDM1, a novel RNA recognition motif (RRM)-containing protein involved in the cell response to cisplatin in vertebrates.

A variety of cellular proteins has the ability to recognize DNA lesions induced by the anti-cancer drug cisplatin, with diverse consequences on their repair and on the therapeutic effectiveness of this drug. We report a novel gene involved in the cell response to cisplatin in vertebrates. The RDM1 gene (for RAD52 Motif 1) was identified while searching databases for sequences showing similarities to RAD52, a protein involved in homologous recombination and DNA double-strand break repair. Ablation of RDM1 in the chicken B cell line DT40 led to a more than 3-fold increase in sensitivity to cisplatin. However, RDM1-/- cells were not hypersensitive to DNA damages caused by ionizing radiation, UV irradiation, or the alkylating agent methylmethane sulfonate. The RDM1 protein displays a nucleic acid binding domain of the RNA recognition motif (RRM) type. By using gel-shift assays and electron microscopy, we show that purified, recombinant chicken RDM1 protein interacts with single-stranded DNA as well as double-stranded DNA, on which it assembles filament-like structures. Notably, RDM1 recognizes DNA distortions induced by cisplatin-DNA adducts in vitro. Finally, human RDM1 transcripts are abundant in the testis, suggesting a possible role during spermatogenesis.

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.