976 resultados para uncertainties


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A emissão de CO2 do solo apresenta alta variabilidade espacial, devido à grande dependência espacial observada nas propriedades do solo que a influenciam. Neste estudo, objetivou-se: caracterizar e relacionar a variabilidade espacial da respiração do solo e propriedades relacionadas; avaliar a acurácia dos resultados fornecidos pelo método da krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana; e avaliar a incerteza na predição da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e demais propriedades utilizando a simulação sequencial gaussiana. O estudo foi conduzido em uma malha amostral irregular com 141 pontos, instalada sobre a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Nesses pontos foram avaliados a emissão de CO2 do solo, a temperatura do solo, a porosidade livre de água, o teor de matéria orgânica e a densidade do solo. Todas as variáveis apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial. A emissão de CO2 do solo mostrou correlações positivas com a matéria orgânica (r = 0,25, p < 0,05) e a porosidade livre de água (r = 0,27, p <0,01) e negativa com a densidade do solo (r = -0,41, p < 0,01). No entanto, quando os valores estimados espacialmente (N=8833) são considerados, a porosidade livre de água passa a ser a principal variável responsável pelas características espaciais da respiração do solo, apresentando correlação de 0,26 (p < 0,01). As simulações individuais propiciaram, para todas as variáveis analisadas, melhor reprodução das funções de distribuição acumuladas e dos variogramas, em comparação à krigagem e estimativa E-type. As maiores incertezas na predição da emissão de CO2 estiveram associadas às regiões da área estudada com maiores valores observados e estimados, produzindo estimativas, ao longo do período estudado, de 0,18 a 1,85 t CO2 ha-1, dependendo dos diferentes cenários simulados. O conhecimento das incertezas gerado por meio dos diferentes cenários de estimativa pode ser incluído em inventários de gases do efeito estufa, resultando em estimativas mais conservadoras do potencial de emissão desses gases.

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Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

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The study of algorithms for active vibrations control in flexible structures became an area of enormous interest, mainly due to the countless demands of an optimal performance of mechanical systems as aircraft and aerospace structures. Smart structures, formed by a structure base, coupled with piezoelectric actuators and sensor are capable to guarantee the conditions demanded through the application of several types of controllers. This article shows some steps that should be followed in the design of a smart structure. It is discussed: the optimal placement of actuators, the model reduction and the controller design through techniques involving linear matrix inequalities (LMI). It is considered as constraints in LMI: the decay rate, voltage input limitation in the actuators and bounded output peak (output energy). Two controllers robust to parametric variation are designed: the first one considers the actuator in non-optimal location and the second one the actuator is put in an optimal placement. The performance are compared and discussed. The simulations to illustrate the methodology are made with a cantilever beam with bonded piezoelectric actuators.

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The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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This work considers the vibrating system that consists of a snap-through truss absorber coupled to an oscillator under excitation of an electric motor with an eccentricity and limited power, characterizing a non-ideal oscillator. It is aimed to use the non-linearity and quasi-zero stiffness of absorber (snap-through truss absorber) to obtain a significantly attenuation the jump phenomenon. There is also an interest to exhibit the reduction of Sommerfeld effect, to confirm the saturation phenomenon occurrence and show the power transfer in a non-linear structure, evidencing the pumping energy. As shown by simulations in this work, this absorber allows the energy pumping before and during the jump phenomenon, decreasing the higher amplitudes of considered system. Additionally, the occurrence of saturation phenomenon due use of snap-through truss absorber is verified. The analysis of parameter uncertainties was introduced. Sensitivity of system with parametric errors demonstrated a trustable system. © IMechE 2012.

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This paper, a micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) with parametric uncertainties is considered. The non-linear dynamics in MEMS system is demonstrated with a chaotic behavior. We present the linear optimal control technique for reducing the chaotic movement of the micro-electromechanical system with parametric uncertainties to a small periodic orbit. The simulation results show the identification by linear optimal control is very effective. © 2013 Academic Publications, Ltd.

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This paper proposes a new switched control design method for some classes of linear time-invariant systems with polytopic uncertainties. This method uses a quadratic Lyapunov function to design the feedback controller gains based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The controller gain is chosen by a switching law that returns the smallest value of the time derivative of the Lyapunov function. The proposed methodology offers less conservative alternative than the well-known controller for uncertain systems with only one state feedback gain. The control design of a magnetic levitator illustrates the procedure. © 2013 Wallysonn A. de Souza et al.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The common practice in industry is to perform flutter analyses considering the generalized stiffness and mass matrices obtained from finite element method (FEM) and aerodynamic generalized force matrices obtained from a panel method, as the doublet lattice method. These analyses are often reperformed if significant differences are found in structural frequencies and damping ratios determined from ground vibration tests compared to FEM. This unavoidable rework can result in a lengthy and costly process of analysis during the aircraft development. In this context, this paper presents an approach to perform flutter analysis including uncertainties in natural frequencies and damping ratios. The main goal is to assure the nominal system’s stability considering these modal parameters varying in a limited range. The aeroelastic system is written as an affine parameter model and the robust stability is verified solving a Lyapunov function through linear matrix inequalities and convex optimization

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The use of piezoelectric materials for the development of electromechanical devices for the harvesting or scavenging of ambient vibrations has been extensively studied over the last decade. The energy conversion from mechanical (vibratory) to electrical energy is provided by the electromechanical coupling between mechanical strains/stresses and electric charges/voltages in the piezoelectric material. The majority of the studies found in the open literature present a tip-mass cantilever piezoelectric device tuned on the operating frequency. Although recent results show that these devices can be quite effective for harvesting small amounts of electrical energy, little has been published on the robustness of these devices or on the effect of parametric uncertainties on the energy harvested. This work focuses on a cantilever plate with bonded piezoelectric patches and a tip-mass serving as an energy harvesting device. The rectifier and storage electric circuit was replaced by a resistive circuit (R). In addition, an alternative to improve the harvesting performance by adding an inductance in series to the harvesting circuit, thus leading to a resonant circuit (RL), is considered. A coupled finite element model leading to mechanical (displacements) and electrical (charges at electrodes) degrees of freedom is considered. An analysis of the effect of parametric uncertainties of the device on the electric output is performed. Piezoelectric and dielectric constants of the piezoelectric active layers and electric circuit equivalent inductance are considered as stochastic parameters. Mean and confidence intervals of the electric output are evaluated.

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OBJECTIVE: This study proposes a new approach that considers uncertainty in predicting and quantifying the presence and severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. METHODS: A rule-based fuzzy expert system was designed by four experts in diabetic neuropathy. The model variables were used to classify neuropathy in diabetic patients, defining it as mild, moderate, or severe. System performance was evaluated by means of the Kappa agreement measure, comparing the results of the model with those generated by the experts in an assessment of 50 patients. Accuracy was evaluated by an ROC curve analysis obtained based on 50 other cases; the results of those clinical assessments were considered to be the gold standard. RESULTS: According to the Kappa analysis, the model was in moderate agreement with expert opinions. The ROC analysis (evaluation of accuracy) determined an area under the curve equal to 0.91, demonstrating very good consistency in classifying patients with diabetic neuropathy. CONCLUSION: The model efficiently classified diabetic patients with different degrees of neuropathy severity. In addition, the model provides a way to quantify diabetic neuropathy severity and allows a more accurate patient condition assessment.