A Context-Dependent Algorithm for Merging Uncertain Information in Possibility Theory

The need to merge multiple sources of uncertaininformation is an important issue in many application areas,especially when there is potential for contradictions betweensources. Possibility theory offers a flexible framework to represent,and reason with, uncertain information, and there isa range of merging operators, such as the conjunctive anddisjunctive operators, for combining information. However, withthe proposals to date, the context of the information to be mergedis largely ignored during the process of selecting which mergingoperators to use. To address this shortcoming, in this paper,we propose an adaptive merging algorithm which selects largelypartially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCSs) of sources, thatcan be merged through relaxation of the conjunctive operator, byassessing the coherence of the information in each subset. In thisway, a fusion process can integrate both conjunctive and disjunctiveoperators in a more flexible manner and thereby be morecontext dependent. A comparison with related merging methodsshows how our algorithm can produce a more consensual result.

An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems.

Use of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence to deal with uncertainty in knowledge-based systems has been widely addressed. Several AI implementations have been undertaken based on the D-S theory of evidence or the extended theory. But the representation of uncertain relationships between evidence and hypothesis groups (heuristic knowledge) is still a major problem. This paper presents an approach to representing such knowledge, in which Yen’s probabilistic multi-set mappings have been extended to evidential mappings, and Shafer’s partition technique is used to get the mass function in a complex evidence space. Then, a new graphic method for describing the knowledge is introduced which is an extension of the graphic model by Lowrance et al. Finally, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is specified.

Evaluating Train Protection Systems

This paper arose from the work carried out for the Cullen/Uff Joint Inquiry into Train Protection Systems. It is concerned with the problem of evaluating the benefits of safety enhancements in order to avoid rare, but catastrophic accidents, and the role of Operations Research in the process. The problems include both input values and representation of outcomes. A key input is the value of life. This paper briefly discusses why the value of life might vary from incident to incident and reviews alternative estimates before producing a 'best estimate' for rail. When the occurrence of an event is uncertain, the normal method is to apply a single 'expected' value. This paper argues that a more effective method of representing such situations is through Monte-Carlo simulation and demonstrates the use of the methodology on a case study of the decision as to whether or not advanced train protection (ATP) should have been installed on a route to the west of London. This paper suggests that the output is more informative than traditional cost-benefit appraisals or engineering event tree approaches. It also shows that, unlike the results from utilizing the traditional approach, the value of ATP on this route would be positive over 50% of the time.

Extreme events and the morphodynamics of gravel-dominated coastal barriers: Strengthening uncertain ground

The long-term morphodynamic ordering of gravel-dominated coastal systems (GDCS), many of which serve as coastal defences in northwest Europe, is dominated by extreme events that generate barrier crest overflow. An understanding of this morphodynamic ordering is fraught with several unresolved difficulties. These are related to the twin problems of the inadequacy of pertinent morphodynamic parameterisation and of obtaining data from modern shores enabling such parameterisation. Major uncertainties concern the timing of over-crest flow in terms of return period of extreme elevation; the intensity and structure of the overflow field; antecedent beachface characteristics in response to storms; the rate of relative sea-level change; tidal stage control; and barrier resistance to forcing, itself determined by a number of unknowns including barrier form and size, sediment size and mosaics, and barrier resilience. While generalised extreme value modelling may provide a means of characterising overwashing return-period and its variability, exceptional tsunami events are outside the scope of such modelling. The characterisation of GDCS morphodynamics in terms of the forcing extreme events will necessitate integrating some or all of these parameters into a single model.

A Syntactic Approach to Revising Epistemic States with Uncertain Inputs

Revising its beliefs when receiving new information is an important ability of any intelligent system. However, in realistic settings the new input is not always certain. A compelling way of dealing with uncertain input in an agent-based setting is to treat it as unreliable input, which may strengthen or weaken the beliefs of the agent. Recent work focused on the postulates associated with this form of belief change and on finding semantical operators that satisfy these postulates. In this paper we propose a new syntactic approach for this form of belief change and show that it agrees with the semantical definition. This makes it feasible to develop complex agent systems capable of efficiently dealing with unreliable input in a semantically meaningful way. Additionally, we show that imposing restrictions on the input and the beliefs that are entailed allows us to devise a tractable approach suitable for resource-bounded agents or agents where reactiveness is of paramount importance.

Can(Plan)+: Extending the Operational Semantics of the BDI Architecture to deal with Uncertain Information

The BDI architecture, where agents are modelled based on their beliefs, desires and intentions, provides a practical approach to develop large scale systems. However, it is not well suited to model complex Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems pervaded by uncertainty. In this paper we address this issue by extending the operational semantics of Can(Plan) into Can(Plan)+. We start by modelling the beliefs of an agent as a set of epistemic states where each state, possibly using a different representation, models part of the agent's beliefs. These epistemic states are stratified to make them commensurable and to reason about the uncertain beliefs of the agent. The syntax and semantics of a BDI agent are extended accordingly and we identify fragments with computationally efficient semantics. Finally, we examine how primitive actions are affected by uncertainty and we define an appropriate form of lookahead planning.

Uncertain Spaces: Virtual Configurations in Contemporary Art and Museums

Contém artigos apresentados na International Conference “Uncertain Spaces: Virtual Configurations in Contemporary Art and Museums”, na Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian (Lisboa), 31 Outubro - 1 de Novembro de 2014) de: Helena Barranha e Susana S. Martins - Introduction: Art, Museums and Uncertainty (pp.1-12); Alexandra Bounia e Eleni Myrivili - Beyond the ‘Virtual’: Intangible Museographies and Collaborative Museum Experiences (pp.15-32); Annet Dekker - Curating in Progress. Moving Between Objects and Processes (pp.33-54); Giselle Beiguelman - Corrupted Memories. The aesthetics of Digital Ruins and the Museum of the Unfinished (pp.55-82); Andrew Vaas Brooks - The Planetary Datalinks (pp.85-110); Sören Meschede - Curators’ Network: Creating a Promotional Database for Contemporary Visual Arts (pp.11-130); Stefanie Kogler - Divergent Histories and Digital Archives of Latin American and Latino Art in the United States – Old Problems in New Digital Formats (pp.131-156); Luise Reitstätter e Florian Bettel - Right to the City! Right to the Museum!(pp.159-182); Roberto Terracciano - On Geo-poetic systems: virtual interventions inside and outside the museum space (pp.183-210); e, Catarina Carneiro de Sousa e Luís Eustáquio - Art Practice in Collaborative Virtual Environments (pp.211-240).

Studies on function projective synchronization in chaotic and hyperchaotic systems

FPS is a more general form of synchronization. Hyperchaotic systems possessing more than one positive Lypaunov exponent exhibit highly complex behaviour and are more suitable for some applications like secure communications. In this thesis we report studies of FPS and MFPS of a few chaotic and hyperchaotic systems. When all the parameters of the system are known we show that active nonlinear control method can be efectively used to obtain FPS. Adaptive nonlinear control and OPCL control method are employed for obtaining FPS and MFPS when some or all parameters of the system are uncertain. A secure communication scheme based on MFPS is also proposed in theory. All our theoretical calculations are verified by numerical simulations.

Multisensor Modeling Underwater with Uncertain Information

This thesis develops an approach to the construction of multidimensional stochastic models for intelligent systems exploring an underwater environment. It describes methods for building models by a three- dimensional spatial decomposition of stochastic, multisensor feature vectors. New sensor information is incrementally incorporated into the model by stochastic backprojection. Error and ambiguity are explicitly accounted for by blurring a spatial projection of remote sensor data before incorporation. The stochastic models can be used to derive surface maps or other representations of the environment. The methods are demonstrated on data sets from multibeam bathymetric surveying, towed sidescan bathymetry, towed sidescan acoustic imagery, and high-resolution scanning sonar aboard a remotely operated vehicle.

Prediction of glucose excursions under uncertain parameters and food intake in intensive insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes mellitus

Considering the difficulty in the insulin dosage selection and the problem of hyper- and hypoglycaemia episodes in type 1 diabetes, dosage-aid systems appear as tremendously helpful for these patients. A model-based approach to this problem must unavoidably consider uncertainty sources such as the large intra-patient variability and food intake. This work addresses the prediction of glycaemia for a given insulin therapy face to parametric and input uncertainty, by means of modal interval analysis. As result, a band containing all possible glucose excursions suffered by the patient for the given uncertainty is obtained. From it, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemia episodes can be calculated

Supervisory systems in waste water treatment plants: sistematise their implementation

La implantació de Sistemes de Suport a la presa de Decisions (SSD) en Estacions Depuradores d'Aigües Residuals Urbanes (EDAR) facilita l'aplicació de tècniques més eficients basades en el coneixement per a la gestió del procés, assegurant la qualitat de l'aigua de sortida tot minimitzant el cost ambiental de la seva explotació. Els sistemes basats en el coneixement es caracteritzen per la seva capacitat de treballar amb dominis molt poc estructurats, i gran part de la informació rellevant de tipus qualitatiu i/o incerta. Precisament aquests són els trets característics que es poden trobar en els sistemes biològics de depuració, i en conseqüència en una EDAR. No obstant, l'elevada complexitat dels SSD fa molt costós el seu disseny, desenvolupament i aplicació en planta real, pel que resulta determinant la generació d'un protocol que faciliti la seva exportació a EDARs de tecnologia similar. L'objectiu del present treball de Tesi és precisament el desenvolupament d'un protocol que faciliti l'exportació sistemàtica de SSD i l'aprofitament del coneixement del procés prèviament adquirit. El treball es desenvolupa en base al cas d'estudi resultant de l'exportació a l'EDAR Montornès del prototipus original de SSD implementat a l'EDAR Granollers. Aquest SSD integra dos tipus de sistemes basats en el coneixement, concretament els sistemes basats en regles (els quals són programes informàtics que emulen el raonament humà i la seva capacitat de solucionar problemes utilitzant les mateixes fonts d'informació) i els sistemes de raonament basats en casos (els quals són programes informàtics basats en el coneixement que volen solucionar les situacions anormals que pateix la planta en el moment actual mitjançant el record de l'acció efectuada en una situació passada similar). El treball està estructurat en diferents capítols, en el primer dels quals, el lector s'introdueix en el món dels sistemes de suport a la decisió i en el domini de la depuració d'aigües. Seguidament es fixen els objectius i es descriuen els materials i mètodes utilitzats. A continuació es presenta el prototipus de SSD desenvolupat per la EDAR Granollers. Una vegada el prototipus ha estat presentat es descriu el primer protocol plantejat pel mateix autor de la Tesi en el seu Treball de Recerca. A continuació es presenten els resultats obtinguts en l'aplicació pràctica del protocol per generar un nou SSD, per una planta depuradora diferent, partint del prototipus. L'aplicació pràctica del protocol permet l'evolució del mateix cap a un millor pla d'exportació. Finalment, es pot concloure que el nou protocol redueix el temps necessari per realitzar el procés d'exportació, tot i que el nombre de passos necessaris ha augmentat, la qual cosa significa que el nou protocol és més sistemàtic.

Computationally reliable approaches of contractive MPC for discrete-time systems

La tesis pretende explorar acercamientos computacionalmente confiables y eficientes de contractivo MPC para sistemas de tiempo discreto. Dos tipos de contractivo MPC han sido estudiados: MPC con coacción contractiva obligatoria y MPC con una secuencia contractiva de conjuntos controlables. Las técnicas basadas en optimización convexa y análisis de intervalos son aplicadas para tratar MPC contractivo lineal y no lineal, respectivamente. El análisis de intervalos clásicos es ampliado a zonotopes en la geometría para diseñar un conjunto invariante de control terminal para el modo dual de MPC. También es ampliado a intervalos modales para tener en cuenta la modalidad al calcula de conjuntos controlables robustos con una interpretación semántica clara. Los instrumentos de optimización convexa y análisis de intervalos han sido combinados para mejorar la eficacia de contractive MPC para varias clases de sistemas de tiempo discreto inciertos no lineales limitados. Finalmente, los dos tipos dirigidos de contractivo MPC han sido aplicados para controlar un Torneo de Fútbol de Copa Mundial de Micro Robot (MiroSot) y un Tanque-Reactor de Mezcla Continua (CSTR), respectivamente.

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon

Developing high-quality scientific research will be most effective if research communities with diverse skills and interests are able to share information and knowledge, are aware of the major challenges across disciplines, and can exploit economies of scale to provide robust answers and better inform policy. We evaluate opportunities and challenges facing the development of a more interactive research environment by developing an interdisciplinary synthesis of research on a single geographic region. We focus on the Amazon as it is of enormous regional and global environmental importance and faces a highly uncertain future. To take stock of existing knowledge and provide a framework for analysis we present a set of mini-reviews from fourteen different areas of research, encompassing taxonomy, biodiversity, biogeography, vegetation dynamics, landscape ecology, earth-atmosphere interactions, ecosystem processes, fire, deforestation dynamics, hydrology, hunting, conservation planning, livelihoods, and payments for ecosystem services. Each review highlights the current state of knowledge and identifies research priorities, including major challenges and opportunities. We show that while substantial progress is being made across many areas of scientific research, our understanding of specific issues is often dependent on knowledge from other disciplines. Accelerating the acquisition of reliable and contextualized knowledge about the fate of complex pristine and modified ecosystems is partly dependent on our ability to exploit economies of scale in shared resources and technical expertise, recognise and make explicit interconnections and feedbacks among sub-disciplines, increase the temporal and spatial scale of existing studies, and improve the dissemination of scientific findings to policy makers and society at large. Enhancing interaction among research efforts is vital if we are to make the most of limited funds and overcome the challenges posed by addressing large-scale interdisciplinary questions. Bringing together a diverse scientific community with a single geographic focus can help increase awareness of research questions both within and among disciplines, and reveal the opportunities that may exist for advancing acquisition of reliable knowledge. This approach could be useful for a variety of globally important scientific questions.

Direct Computation of Stochastic Flow in Reservoirs with Uncertain Parameters

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point and to the field covariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data.

Testing the sustainability and sensitivity to climatic change of terrace agricultural systems in the Peruvian Andes: a pilot study

The results of an integrated geoarchaeological and palaeoecological pilot study of a prehistoric agricultural terrace and nearby mire basin are presented. They reveal two stages of terrace construction for the cultivation of Zea mays during the Middle Horizon (615–695 AD) and late, Late Intermediate Period (1200–1400 AD). These stages were strongly associated with evidence for vegetation succession, destabilisation and erosion of the surrounding landscape, and changes in mire surface wetness. The reasons for agricultural terrace abandonment and/or reconstruction are uncertain, with only circumstantial evidence for climatically induced agricultural change.