Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Maxwell perturbations on asymptotically Anti-de-Sitter spacetimes: generic boundary conditions and a new branch of quasinormal modes

Perturbations of asymptotically Anti-de-Sitter (AdS) spacetimes are often considered by imposing field vanishing boundary conditions (BCs) at the AdS boundary. Such BCs, of Dirichlet-type, imply a vanishing energy flux at the boundary, but the converse is, generically, not true. Regarding AdS as a gravitational box, we consider vanishing energy flux (VEF) BCs as a more fundamental physical requirement and we show that these BCs can lead to a new branch of modes. As a concrete example, we consider Maxwell perturbations on Kerr-AdS black holes in the Teukolsky formalism, but our formulation applies also for other spin fields. Imposing VEF BCs, we find a set of two Robin BCs, even for Schwarzschild-AdS black holes. The Robin BCs on the Teukolsky variables can be used to study quasinormal modes, superradiant instabilities and vector clouds. As a first application, we consider here the quasinormal modes of Schwarzschild-AdS black holes. We find that one of the Robin BCs yields the quasinormal spectrum reported in the literature, while the other one unveils a new branch for the quasinormal spectrum.

Special Section Guest Editorial: Image/Video Quality and System Performance

Rapid developments in display technologies, digital printing, imaging sensors, image processing and image transmission are providing new possibilities for creating and conveying visual content. In an age in which images and video are ubiquitous and where mobile, satellite, and three-dimensional (3-D) imaging have become ordinary experiences, quantification of the performance of modern imaging systems requires appropriate approaches. At the end of the imaging chain, a human observer must decide whether images and video are of a satisfactory visual quality. Hence the measurement and modeling of perceived image quality is of crucial importance, not only in visual arts and commercial applications but also in scientific and entertainment environments. Advances in our understanding of the human visual system offer new possibilities for creating visually superior imaging systems and promise more accurate modeling of image quality. As a result, there is a profusion of new research on imaging performance and perceived quality.

Functional and structural characterization of the RNase II-family of enzymes

Dissertation presented to obtain a Doctoral Degree in Biology by Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica, Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Fungal communities in archives: assessment strategies and impact on paper conservation and human health

The main results presented in this PhD Dissertation have been published in interna-tional journals included in the Science Citation Index (SCI)

Optical and electrical properties of amorphous zinc tin oxide thin films examined for thin film transistor application

Structural, electronic, and optical properties of amorphous and transparent zinc tin oxide films deposited on glass substrates by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) were examined for two chemical compositions of Zn:Sn=1:1 and 2:1 as a function of oxygen partial pressure PO2 used for the film deposition and annealing temperature. Different from a previous report on sputter-deposited films Chiang et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 86, 013503 2005 , the PLD-deposited films crystallized at a lower temperature 450 °C to give crystalline ZnO and SnO2 phases. The optical band gaps Tauc gaps were 2.80−2.85 eV and almost independent of oxygen PO2 , which are smaller than those of the corresponding crystals 3.35−3.89 eV . Films deposited at low PO2 showed significant subgap absorptions, which were reduced by postthermal annealing. Hall mobility showed steep increases when carrier concentration exceeded threshold values and the threshold value depended on the film chemical composition. The films deposited at low PO2 2 Pa had low carrier concentrations. It is thought that the low PO2 produced high-density oxygen deficiencies and generated electrons, but these electrons were trapped in localized states, which would be observed as the subgap absorptions. Similar effects were observed for 600 °C crystallized films and their resistivities were increased by formation of subgap states due to the reducing high-temperature condition. High carrier concentrations and large mobilities were obtained in an intermediate PO2 region for the as-deposited films.

Design and fabrication of a photothermal spectrometer and investigations of multilayer thin films"

In this work we present the results of our attempt to build a compact photothermal spectrometer capable of both manual and automated mode of operation.The salient features of the system include the ability to analyse thin film, powder and polymer samples. The tool has been in use to investigate thermal, optical and transport properties. Binary and ternary semiconducting thin films were analysed for their thermal diffusivities. The system could perform thickness measurements nondestructively. Ion implanted semiconductors are widely studied for the effect of radiation induced defects. We could perform nondestructive imaging of defects using our spectrometer.The results reported in his thesis on the above in addition to studies on In2S3 and transparent conducting oxide ZnO have been achieved with this spectrometer. Various polymer samples have been easily analysed for their thermal diffusivities. The technique provided ease of analysis not achieved with conventional techniques like TGA and DSC. Industrial application of the tool has also been proved by analyzing defects of welded joints and adhesion of paints. Indigenization of the expensive lock-in-amplifier and automation has been the significant achievement in the course of this dissertation. We are on our way to prove the noise rejection capabilities of our PC LIA.

Information Exchange and Fusion in Dynamic and Heterogeneous Distributed Environments

Context awareness, dynamic reconfiguration at runtime and heterogeneity are key characteristics of future distributed systems, particularly in ubiquitous and mobile computing scenarios. The main contributions of this dissertation are theoretical as well as architectural concepts facilitating information exchange and fusion in heterogeneous and dynamic distributed environments. Our main focus is on bridging the heterogeneity issues and, at the same time, considering uncertain, imprecise and unreliable sensor information in information fusion and reasoning approaches. A domain ontology is used to establish a common vocabulary for the exchanged information. We thereby explicitly support different representations for the same kind of information and provide Inter-Representation Operations that convert between them. Special account is taken of the conversion of associated meta-data that express uncertainty and impreciseness. The Unscented Transformation, for example, is applied to propagate Gaussian normal distributions across highly non-linear Inter-Representation Operations. Uncertain sensor information is fused using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence as it allows explicit modelling of partial and complete ignorance. We also show how to incorporate the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence into probabilistic reasoning schemes such as Hidden Markov Models in order to be able to consider the uncertainty of sensor information when deriving high-level information from low-level data. For all these concepts we provide architectural support as a guideline for developers of innovative information exchange and fusion infrastructures that are particularly targeted at heterogeneous dynamic environments. Two case studies serve as proof of concept. The first case study focuses on heterogeneous autonomous robots that have to spontaneously form a cooperative team in order to achieve a common goal. The second case study is concerned with an approach for user activity recognition which serves as baseline for a context-aware adaptive application. Both case studies demonstrate the viability and strengths of the proposed solution and emphasize that the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence should be preferred to pure probability theory in applications involving non-linear Inter-Representation Operations.

Vibration and two-photon absorption

The rigorous and transparent treatment of the effects of nuclear vibrational motion in two-photon absorption (TPA) was discussed. Perturbation formula for diatomic molecules were developed and applied to the X¹Σ+–A¹Π transition in CO. The analysis showed that the vibrations played an important role in TPA, just as their role in the calculation of conventional nonlinear optical (NLO) hyperpolarizabilities

An estimate of the global impact of multiple scattering by clouds on outgoing long-wave radiation

Although the potential importance of scattering of long-wave radiation by clouds has been recognised, most studies have concentrated on the impact of high clouds and few estimates of the global impact of scattering have been presented. This study shows that scattering in low clouds has a significant impact on outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) in regions of marine stratocumulus (-3.5 W m(-2) for overcast conditions) where the column water vapour is relatively low. This corresponds to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect of such clouds by 10%. The near-global impact of scattering on OLR is estimated to be -3.0 W m(-2), with low clouds contributing -0.9 W m(-2), mid-level cloud -0.7 W m(-2) and high clouds -1.4 W m(-2). Although this effect appears small compared to the global mean OLR of 240 W m(-2), it indicates that neglect of scattering will lead to an error in cloud long-wave forcing of about 10% and an error in net cloud forcing of about 20%.

Estimating drizzle drop size and precipitation rate using two-colour lidar measurements

A method to estimate the size and liquid water content of drizzle drops using lidar measurements at two wavelengths is described. The method exploits the differential absorption of infrared light by liquid water at 905 nm and 1.5 μm, which leads to a different backscatter cross section for water drops larger than ≈50 μm. The ratio of backscatter measured from drizzle samples below cloud base at these two wavelengths (the colour ratio) provides a measure of the median volume drop diameter D0. This is a strong effect: for D0=200 μm, a colour ratio of ≈6 dB is predicted. Once D0 is known, the measured backscatter at 905 nm can be used to calculate the liquid water content (LWC) and other moments of the drizzle drop distribution. The method is applied to observations of drizzle falling from stratocumulus and stratus clouds. High resolution (32 s, 36 m) profiles of D0, LWC and precipitation rate R are derived. The main sources of error in the technique are the need to assume a value for the dispersion parameter μ in the drop size spectrum (leading to at most a 35% error in R) and the influence of aerosol returns on the retrieval (≈10% error in R for the cases considered here). Radar reflectivities are also computed from the lidar data, and compared to independent measurements from a colocated cloud radar, offering independent validation of the derived drop size distributions.

Preliterate phonological awareness and early literacy skills in Turkish

The role of preschool phonological awareness in early reading and spelling skills was investigated in the transparent orthography of Turkish. Fifty-six preschool children (mean age=5.6 years) were followed into Grade 2 (mean age=7.6 years). While preschool phonological awareness failed to make any reliable contribution to future reading skills, it was the strongest longitudinal correlate of spelling skills measured at the end of Grades 1 and 2. Overall findings suggested that phonological awareness may be differentially related to reading and spelling, and that spelling is a more sensitive index of phonological processing skills. In this study, verbal short-term memory emerged as the most powerful and consistent longitudinal correlate of reading speed. This finding raised important questions about the component processes of reading speed, and the role of memory and morphosyntactic skills in an agglutinative and transparent orthography such as Turkish.

Benchmarking energy use in licensed restaurants and pubs

Commercial kitchens often leave a large carbon footprint. A new dataset of energy performance metrics from a leading industrial partner is presented. Categorising these types of buildings is challenging. Electricity use has been analysed using data from automated meter readings (AMR) for the purpose of benchmarking and discussed in terms of factors such as size and food output. From the analysed results, consumption is found to be almost double previous sector estimates of 6480 million kWh per year. Recommendations are made to further improve the current benchmarks in order to attain robust, reliable and transparent figures, such as the introduction of normalised performance indicators to include kitchen size (m2) and kWh per thousand-pound turnover.

Cloud optical and microphysical properties derived from ground-based and satellite sensors over a site in the Yangtze Delta region

Comprehensive surface-based retrievals of cloud optical and microphysical properties were made at Taihu, a highly polluted site in the central Yangtze Delta region, during a research campaign from May 2008 to December 2009. Cloud optical depth (COD), effective radius (Re), and liquid water path (LWP) were retrieved from measurements made with a suite of ground-based and spaceborne instruments, including an Analytical Spectral Devices spectroradiometer, a multi␣lter rotating shadowband radiometer, a multichannel microwave radiometer profiler, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua satellites. Retrievals from zenith radiance measurements capture better the temporal variation of cloud properties than do retrievals from hemispherical fluxes. Annual mean LWP, COD, and Re are 115.8 ± 90.8 g/m2, 28.5 ± 19.2, and 6.9 ± 4.2 microns. Over 90% of LWP values are less than 250 g/m2. Most of the COD values (>90%) fall between 5 and 60, and ~80% of Re values are less than 10 microns. Maximum (minimum) values of LWP and Re occur in summer (winter); COD is highest in winter and spring. Raining and nonraining clouds have signi␣cant differences in LWP, COD, and Re. Rainfall frequency is best correlated with LWP, followed by COD and Re. Cloud properties retrieved from multiple ground-based instruments are also compared with those from satellite retrievals. On average, relative to surface retrievals, mean differences of satellite retrievals in cloud LWP, COD, and Re were -33.6 g/m2 (-26.4%), -5.8 (-31.4%), and 2.9 ␣m (29.3%) for 11 MODIS-Terra overpasses and -43.3 g/m2 (-22.3%), -3.0 (-10.0%), and -1.3 ␣m (-12.0%) for 8 MODIS-Aqua overpasses, respectively. These discrepancies indicate that MODIS cloud products still suffer from large uncertainties in this region.

Washington's growth and opportunity act or Beijing's 'Overarching Brilliance': will African governments choose neither?

Growing criticism of Chinese engagement in Africa centres on the risk to African development posed by China's aggressive export policies and the threat to the Washington Consensus and African governance posed by China's 'non-interference' approach to engagement. This article challenges both these assumptions. The growth of Chinese trade has a wide range of impacts, depending on the sector in question, and the current terms of trade Washington extends to Africa under the auspices of the AGOA do not result in uniformly beneficial effects. With regard to African governance, it is argued that the 'Washington Consensus' has been based on competing and often muddled perceptions of US national interest. This fact tempers the regret felt at Washington's loss of influence over the good governance agenda. Evidence is provided to show that China can work within properly regulated countries and industries, if the African governments in question can provide fair, efficient and transparent environments in which to operate.