Trade, Foreign Investment and Myanmar's Economic Development during the Transition to an Open Economy

Throughout the 1990s and up to 2005, the adoption of an open-door policy substantially increased the volume of Myanmar's external trade. Imports grew more rapidly than exports in the 1990s owing to the release of pent-up consumer demand during the transition to a market economy. Accordingly, trade deficits expanded. Confronted by a shortage of foreign currency, the government after the late 1990s resorted to rigid controls over the private sector's trade activities. Despite this tightening of policy, Myanmar's external sector has improved since 2000 largely because of the emergence of new export commodities, namely garments and natural gas. Foreign direct investments in Myanmar significantly contributed to the exploration and development of new gas fields. As trade volume grew, Myanmar strengthened its trade relations with neighboring countries such as China, Thailand and India. Although the development of external trade and foreign investment inflows exerted a considerable impact on the Myanmar economy, the external sector has not yet begun to function as a vigorous engine for broad-based and sustainable development.

Analysis of the problems associated with dynamic interaction between train, track and structure at transition zones

El gran desarrollo experimentado por la alta velocidad en los principales países de la Unión Europea, en los últimos 30 años, hace que este campo haya sido y aún sea uno de los principales referentes en lo que a investigación se refiere. Por otra parte, la aparición del concepto super − alta velocidad hace que la investigación en el campo de la ingeniería ferroviaria siga adquiriendo importancia en los principales centros de investigación de los países en los que se desea implantar este modo de transporte, o en los que habiendo sido ya implantado, se pretenda mejorar. Las premisas de eficacia, eficiencia, seguridad y confort, que este medio de transporte tiene como razón de ser pueden verse comprometidas por diversos factores. Las zonas de transición, definidas en la ingeniería ferroviaria como aquellas secciones en las que se produce un cambio en las condiciones de soporte de la vía, pueden afectar al normal comportamiento para el que fue diseñada la infraestructura, comprometiendo seriamente los estándares de eficiencia en el tiempo de viaje, confort de los pasajeros y aumentando considerablemente los costes de mantenimiento de la vía, si no se toman las medidas oportunas. En esta tesis se realiza un estudio detallado de la zonas de transición, concretamente de aquellas en las que existe una cambio en la rigidez vertical de la vía debido a la presencia de un marco hidráulico. Para realizar dicho estudio se lleva a cabo un análisis numérico de interacción entre el vehículo y la estructura, con un modelo bidimensional de elemento finitos, calibrado experimentalmente, en estado de tensión plana. En este análisis se tiene en cuenta el efecto de las irregularidades de la vía y el comportamiento mecánico de la interfaz suelo-estructura, con el objetivo de reproducir de la forma más real posible el efecto de interacción entre el vehículo, la vía y la estructura. Otros efectos como la influencia de la velocidad del tren y los asientos diferenciales, debidos a deformaciones por consolidación de los terraplenes a ambos lados el marco hidráulico, son también analizados en este trabajo. En esta tesis, los cálculos de interacción se han llevado a cabo en dos fases diferentes. En la primera, se ha considerado una interacción sencilla debida al paso de un bogie de un tren Eurostar. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase se han denominado cálculos a corto plazo. En la segunda, se ha realizado un análisis considerando múltiples pasos de bogie del tren Eurostar, conformando un análisis de degradación en el que se tiene en cuenta, en cada ciclo, la deformación de la capa de balasto. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase, son denominados en el texto como cálculos a largo plazo. Los resultados analizados muestran que la utilización de los denominados elementos de contacto es fundamental cuando se desea estudiar la influencia de asientos diferenciales, especialmente en transiciones terraplén-estructura en las que la cuña de cimentación no llega hasta la base de cimentación de la estructura. Por otra parte, tener en cuenta los asientos del terraplén, es sumamente importante, cuando se desea realizar un análisis de degradación de la vía ya que su influencia en la interacción entre el vehículo y la vía es muy elevada, especialmente para valores altos de velocidad del tren. En cuanto a la influencia de las irregularidades de la vía, en los cálculos efectuados, se revela que su importancia es muy notable, siendo su influencia muy destacada cuanto mayor sea la velocidad del tren. En este punto cabe destacar la diferencia de resultados derivada de la consideración de perfiles de irregularidades de distinta naturaleza. Los resultados provenientes de considerar perfiles artificiales son en general muy elevados, siendo estos más apropiados para realizar estudios de otra índole, como por ejemplo de seguridad al descarrilamiento. Los resultados provenientes de perfiles reales, dados por diferentes Administradores ferroviarios, presentan resultados menos elevados y más propios del problema analizar. Su influencia en la interacción dinámica entre el vehículo y la vía es muy importante, especialmente para velocidades elevadas del tren. Además el fenómeno de degradación conocido como danza de traviesas, asociado a zonas de transición, es muy susceptible a la consideración de irregularidades de la vía, tal y como se desprende de los cálculos efectuados a largo plazo. The major development experienced by high speed in the main countries of the European Union, in the last 30 years, makes railway research one of the main references in the research field. It should also be mentioned that the emergence of the concept superhigh − speed makes research in the field of Railway Engineering continues to gain importance in major research centers in the countries in which this mode of transportation is already implemented or planned to be implemented. The characteristics that this transport has as rationale such as: effectiveness, efficiency, safety and comfort, may be compromised by several factors. The transition zones are defined in railway engineering as a region in which there is an abrupt change of track stiffness. This stiffness variation can affect the normal behavior for which the infrastructure has been designed, seriously compromising efficiency standards in the travel time, passenger comfort and significantly increasing the costs of track maintenance, if appropriate measures are not taken. In this thesis a detailed study of the transition zones has been performed, particularly of those in which there is a change in vertical stiffness of the track due to the presence of a reinforced concrete culvert. To perform such a study a numerical interaction analysis between the vehicle, the track and the structure has been developed. With this purpose a two-dimensional finite element model, experimentally calibrated, in a state of plane stress, has been used. The implemented numerical models have considered the effects of track irregularities and mechanical behavior of soil-structure interface, with the objective of reproducing as accurately as possible the dynamic interaction between the vehicle the track and the structure. Other effects such as the influence of train speed and differential settlement, due to secondary consolidation of the embankments on both sides of culvert, have also been analyzed. In this work, the interaction analysis has been carried out in two different phases. In the first part a simple interaction due to the passage of a bogie of a Eurostar train has been considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named short-term analysis. In the second part, a multi-load assessment considering an Eurostar train bogie moving along the transition zone, has been performed. The objective here is to simulate a degradation process in which vertical deformation of the ballast layer was considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named long-term analysis. The analyzed results show that the use of so-called contact elements is essential when one wants to analyze the influence of differential settlements, especially in embankment-structure transitions in which the wedge-shaped backfill does not reach the foundation base of the structure. Moreover, considering embankment settlement is extremely important when it is desired to perform an analysis of track degradation. In these cases the influence on the interaction behaviour between the vehicle and the track is very high, especially for higher values of speed train. Regarding the influence of the track irregularities, this study has proven that the track’s dynamic response is heavily influenced by the irregularity profile and that this influence is more important for higher train velocities. It should also be noted that the difference in results derived from consideration of irregularities profiles of different nature. The results coming from artificial profiles are generally very high, these might be more appropriate in order to study other effects, such as derailment safety. Results from real profiles, given by the monitoring works of different rail Managers, are softer and they fit better to the context of this thesis. The influence of irregularity profiles on the dynamic interaction between the train and the track is very important, especially for high-speeds of the train. Furthermore, the degradation phenomenon known as hanging sleepers, associated with transition zones, is very susceptible to the consideration of track irregularities, as it can be concluded from the long-term analysis.

DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP IN NORTH AFRICA AFTER THE ARAB AWAKENING: CHALLENGES FOR EU AND US FOREIGN POLICY (EUSPRING). Arab Citizenship Review No. 4, April 2014. Egypt. Egypt’s Transition in Crisis: The Decline of Citizenship Rights

This series of policy briefs provides a regular update of debates concerning key rights issues in three Arab states, Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia. In a first round of briefs on the three countries, we provide background on these debates since the beginning of the Arab spring.

Population Scenarios and Policy Implications for Southern Mediterranean Countries, 2010-2050. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 5, March 2013

Four population scenarios were derived that describe indicators of demographic behaviour for people living in different future political-economic contexts. This policy paper explores future trends in i) population growth at regional and national levels, ii) working age populations, in view of demographic dividend potential, and iii) elderly populations, in view of the financial burden they place on economies. Results show that different scenarios do not have large effects on population growth, at least up to 2030. This is due to the in-built ‘population momentum’ effect in the relatively young age-structures of most southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs). In the short term, up to 2030, and depending on which economic-political scenario unfolds, SEMCs are expected to grow from 280 million people to a figure of between 362 and 349 million people. Thus, in a period of about 20 years SEMCs are expected to grow by between 69 and 83 million people. In the same period, EU27 populations will grow by 21 million; only from about 500 to 521 million people. Between 2030 and 2050, additional population growth is foreseen in SEMCs, between 48 and 62 million people, while EU27 populations are expected to grow by 4 million only. SEMCs vary widely regarding demographic transition profiles so that demographic dividend potentials also vary. Old-age dependency ratios – the share of elderly people in relation to the working age population – are still low compared to EU27 ratios, but will increase after 2035. Should SEMCs’ economies remain politically, economically and environmentally precarious in the coming decades, their relatively low dependency ratios may impose an even higher social and financial burden on economies than the EU countries’ high dependency ratios impose on their economies.

Financial Sector Development and Integration in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Towards a long-term sustainable transition. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 7, April 2013

This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines the trends and prospects in financial-sector development and integration in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries and concludes with an agenda for a long-term sustainable transition where finance turns to be a positive stimulus to long-term growth.

Energy Transition in Europe’s Power House. Alleingang, avant-garde or blackout? IES Policy Brief Issue 2012/03/October 2012

Summary. The transformation of Germany’s energy sector will further exacerbate current network fluctuations and intensify the need for modifications in Europe’s power system. Cross-border power transfers will have to increase in order to overcome national limitations for absorbing large volumes of intermittent renewables like wind and solar power. In order to establish such an infrastructure on a European scale, the energy transition needs to be guided by an economic approach designed to prevent further fractures in the Internal Electricity Market. Moreover, constructive negotiations with neighbouring countries on market designs and price signals will be important preconditions for a successful energy transition in Europe.

A comparison of the efficacy and safety of olanzapine versus haloperidol during transition from intramuscular to oral therapy

Background: Acutely agitated patients with schizophrenia who receive intramuscular (IM) medications typically are switched to oral (PO) antipsychotic maintenance therapy Objective: The goal of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of olanzapine versus those of haloperidol during transition from IM to PO therapy We used additional data from a previously reported trial to test the hypothesis that the reduction in agitation achieved by IM olanzapine 10 mg or IM haloperidol 7.5 mg would be maintained following transition to 4 days of PO olanzapine or PO haloperidol (5-20 mg/d for both). We also hypothesized that olanzapine would maintain its more favorable extrapyramidal symptom (EPS) safety profile. Methods: This was a multinational (hospitals in 13 countries), double-blind, randomized, controlled trial. Acutely agitated inpatients with schizophrenia were treated with 1 to 3 IM injections of olanzapine 10 mg or haloperidol 7.5 mg over 24 hours and were entered into a 4-day PO treatment period with the same medication (5-20 mg/d for both). The primary efficacy measurement was reduction in agitation, as measured by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale-Excited Component (PANSS-EC) score. Adverse events and scores on EPS rating scales were assessed. Results: A total of 311 patients (204 men, 107 women; mean [SD] age, 38.2 [11.6] years) were enrolled (131, 126, and 54 patients in the olanzapine, haloperidol, and placebo groups, respectively). In all, 93.1% (122/131) of olanzapine-treated patients and 92.1% (116/126) of haloperidol-treated patients completed the IM period and entered the PO period; 85.5% (112/131) of olanzapine-treated patients and 84.1% (106/126) of haloperidol-treated patients completed the PO period. IM olanzapine and IM haloperidol effectively reduced agitation over 24 hours (mean [SD] PANSS-EC change, -7.1 [4.8] vs -6.7 [4.3], respectively). Reductions in agitation were sustained throughout the PO period with both study drugs (mean [SD] change from PO period baseline, -0.6 [4.8] vs -1.3 [4.4], respectively). During PO treatment, haloperidol-treated patients spontaneously reported significantly more acute dystonia than olanzapine-treated patients (4.3% [5/116] vs 0% [0/122], respectively; P = 0.026) and akathisia (5.2% [6/116] vs 0% [0/122], respectively; P = 0.013). Significantly more haloperidol-treated patients than olanzapine-treated patients met categorical criteria for treatment-emergent akathisia (18.5% [17/92] vs 6.5% [7/107], respectively; P = 0.015). Conclusions: In the acutely agitated patients with schizophrenia in this study, both IM olanzapine 10 mg and IM haloperidol 7.5 mg effectively reduced agitation over 24 hours. This alleviation of agitation was sustained following transition from IM therapy to 4 days of PO treatment (5-20 mg/d for both). During the 4 days of PO treatment, olanzapine-treated patients did not spontaneously report any incidences of acute dystonia, and olanzapine had a superior EPS safety profile to that of haloperidol. The combination of IM and PO olanzapine may help improve the treatment of acutely agitated patients with schizophrenia. Copyright (C) 2003 Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Consensus statement on the management of the GH-treated adolescent in the transition to adult care

The European Society for Paediatric Endocrinology held a consensus workshop in Manchester, UK in December 2003 to discuss issues relating to the care of GH-treated patients in the transition from paediatric to adult life. Clinicians experienced in the care of paediatric and adult patients on GH treatment, from a wide range of countries, as well as medical representatives from the pharmaceutical manufacturers of GH participated.

Equity market integration in the Asia-Pacific region:a smooth transition analysis

We use a smooth transition logistic function to test for equity market integration in a sample of Asia-Pacific countries. This allows us to gauge the speed at which a market is becoming integrated. Of the countries we examine we find that Thailand has the fastest pace of global integration. When we examine the extent to which local integration is taking place, we find that Singapore is experiencing the fastest rise in market integration. © 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring civil servant resistance to M-government:a story of transition and opportunities in Turkey

The concept of mobility, related to technology in particular, has evolved dramatically over the last two decades including: (i) hardware ranging from walkmans to Ipods, laptops to netbooks, PDAs to 3G mobile phone; (ii) software supporting multiple audio and video formats driven by ubiquitous mobile wireless access, WiMax, automations such as radio frequency ID tracking and location aware services. Against the background of increasing budget deficit, along with the imperative for efficiency gains, leveraging ICT and mobility promises for work related tasks, in a public administration context, in emerging markets, point to multiple possible paths. M-government transition involve both technological changes and adoption to deliver government services differently (e.g. 24/7, error free, anywhere to the same standards) but also the design of digital strategies including possibly competing m-government models, the re-shaping of cultural practices, the creation of m-policies and legislations, the structuring of m-services architecture, and progress regarding m-governance. While many emerging countries are already offering e-government services and are gearing-up for further m-government activities, little is actually known about the resistance that is encountered, as a reflection of civil servants' current standing, before any further macro-strategies are deployed. Drawing on the resistance and mobility literature, this chapter investigates how civil servants' behaviors, in an emerging country technological environment, through their everyday practice, react and resist the influence of m-government transition. The findings points to four main type of resistance namely: i) functional resistance; ii) ideological resistance; iii) market driven resistance and iv) geographical resistance. Policy implication are discussed in the specific context of emerging markets. © 2011, IGI Global.

Off-farm labour supply and labour markets in rapidly changing circumstances:Bulgaria during transition

This study examines off-farm labor supply in the rapidly changing conditions of Bulgaria during the 1990s. In doing so, we make use of three different waves of the Bulgarian Integrated Household Survey, each reflecting remarkably different environmental conditions. The results suggest that standard theories of off-farm labor supply provide little guidance in situations characterized by chronic excess supply in the off-farm labor market and/or rapidly changing circumstances. In particular, the results show (1) that off-farm employment throughout the transition was predominantly determined by demand rather than by supply, and (2) that the magnitude and statistical significance of the various determinants are very sensitive to changing environmental conditions. As such, the results can be extremely relevant for both theory and policy for the many countries which may still need to go through privatization and painful restructuring as a result of financial crises and globalization.

Entrepreneurship in transition economies:the role of institutions and generational change

The transition economies have lower rates of entrepreneurship than are observed in most developed and developing market economies. The difference is even more marked in the countries of the former Soviet Union than those of Central and Eastern Europe. We link these differences partly with the legacy of communist planning, which needs to be replaced with formal market-supporting institutions. But many of these developments have now taken place, yet entrepreneurial activity still remains low in many places. To analyse this longer term issue, we highlight the necessarily slow pace of development of new informal institutions and the corresponding social attitudes, notably rebuilding the generalised trust. We argue that changes are even slower in the former Soviet Union than Central and Eastern Europe because communist rule was much longer, leading to a lack of institutional memory. We posit that changes in informal institutions may be therefore delayed until after full generational change.

Institutions, finance and the level of development:the impact on entrepreneurship in transition

We investigate the impact of institutions on entrepreneurial entry, based on a large cross-country sample, combining working age population data generated by the GEM project with macro level indicators. Our four key findings indicate that: (a) institutional obstacles to entrepreneurship have different impact in rich countries compared to poor countries; (b) institutional obstacles have a stronger impact on 'opportunity entrepreneurship' than on 'necessity entrepreneurship'; (c) two institutional indicators - property right protection and access to finance - appear to have a dominant impact on entrepreneurship; (d) institutions have a long term impact. More than ten years after the Soviet system imploded in Central and Eastern Europe, these countries still experience significantly lower levels of entrepreneurship than economies coming from different legal traditions.