Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Effect of a pathological scapular tilt after total shoulder arthroplasty.

Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) is an accepted and most successfully used treatment for different shoulder pathologies. Different risk factors for the failure of the prosthesis are known. A pathological scapular orientation, observed in elderly people or in patients suffering from neuromuscular diseases, could be a cause of failure, which has not been investigated yet. To test this hypothesis, a numerical musculoskeletal model of the glenohumeral joint was used to compare two TSA cases: a reference normal case and a case with a pathological anterior tilt of the scapula. An active abduction of 150° was simulated. Joint force, contact pattern, polyethylene and cement stress were evaluated for both cases. The pathological tilt slightly increased the joint force and the contact pressure, but also shifted the contact pattern. This eccentric contact increased the stress level within the polyethylene of the glenoid component and within the surrounding cement layer. This adverse effect occurred mainly during the first 60° of abduction. Therefore, a pathological orientation of the scapula may increase the risk of a failure of the cement layer around the glenoid component. These preliminary numerical results should be confirmed by a clinical study.

Passive knee-extension test to measure hamstring tightness: influence of gravity correction

CONTEXT: A passive knee-extension test has been shown to be a reliable method of assessing hamstring tightness, but this method does not take into account the potential effect of gravity on the tested leg. OBJECTIVE: To compare an original passive knee-extension test with 2 adapted methods including gravity's effect on the lower leg. DESIGN: Repeated measures. SETTING: Laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: 20 young track and field athletes (16.6 ± 1.6 y, 177.6 ± 9.2 cm, 75.9 ± 24.8 kg). INTERVENTION: Each subject was tested in a randomized order with 3 different methods: In the original one (M1), passive knee angle was measured with a standard force of 68.7 N (7 kg) applied proximal to the lateral malleolus. The second (M2) and third (M3) methods took into account the relative lower-leg weight (measured respectively by handheld dynamometer and anthropometrical table) to individualize the force applied to assess passive knee angle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Passive knee angles measured with video-analysis software. RESULTS: No difference in mean individualized applied force was found between M2 and M3, so the authors assessed passive knee angle only with M2. The mean knee angle was different between M1 and M2 (68.8 ± 12.4 vs 73.1 ± 10.6, P < .001). Knee angles in M1 and M2 were correlated (r = .93, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in knee angle were found between the original passive knee-extension test and a method with gravity correction. M2 is an improved version of the original method (M1) since it minimizes the effect of gravity. Therefore, we recommend using it rather than M1.

Impact of body tilt on the central aortic pressure pulse

Le but de cette thèse a été d'investiguer la relation entre, d'une part le temps de propagation de l'onde de pouls artérielle du coeur vers les membres inférieurs, et d'autre part le temps séparant, au niveau de l'aorte ascendante, la génération de l'onde antérograde du retour des ondes réfléchies. Le principe de la méthode employée a été de mesurer ces deux temps par deux méthodes indépendantes, ce en les faisant varier par changement rapide de la position du corps, chez sujets humains volontaires. Le facteur gravitationnel a en effet une influence majeure sur la pression transmurale des artères, dont dépend largement la vitesse de propagation des ondes de pouls, tant dans le sens antérograde que rétrograde. Vingt sujets jeunes, en bonne santé, dontIO hommes et 10 femmes, ont été examinés sur une table de tilt, dans deux positions différentes : tête vers le bas (angle de tilt : - 10°) et tête vers le haut (+45°).Dans chaque position, le temps de propagation carotido- femorale (Tcf, succédané du temps aorto-fémoral) et carotido-tibial (Tct, succédané du temps aorto-tibial) a été mesuré avec l'appareil Complior. De même, dans chaque position la pression aortique centrale a été enregistrée par tonométrie radiale en utilisant l'appareil SphygmoCor qui applique une fonction de transfert généralisé pour reconstruire la forme de l'onde de pouls aortique. L'analyse de celle-ci permet ensuite de calculer les temps d'aller-retour des ondes réfléchies atteignant l'aorte pendant la systole (début de l'onde réfléchie, sT1 r) et pendant la diastole (temps de transit moyen de l'onde diastolique réfléchie dMTT). Le changement de position de tête vers le haut à tête vers le bas, a provoqué une augmentation importante du temps de propagation Tct (chez le femmes de 130±10 à 185±18msec, P<0,001 et chez les hommes de 136±9 à 204±18msec P<0.001) ainsi que du temps moyen de transition de l'onde diastolique réfléchie dMTT (chez les femmes de 364±35 à 499±33msec P<0,001 et chez les hommes de 406±22 à 553±21msec, P<0,001). Un modèle de régression mixte montre qu'entre les deux positions, les variations de dMTT sont environ le double de celles de Tct (coefficient de régression 2.1; 95% intervalle de confiance 1.9-2,3, P<0,001). Ces résultats suggèrent que les ondes diastoliques observées dans l'onde de pouls aortique central reconstruites par tonométrie radiale, correspondent, du moins en partie, aux ondes réfléchies générées au niveau des membres inférieurs.

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesian viewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentrates mass around the small, or null, model. For testing independence in contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement. Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled by a discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays an important role in the resulting answer regardless of the sample size. In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independence in contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors with different degree of concentration around the null, and compare with other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency of the intrinsic Bayesian tests is established. We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes, and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin or the table total, but not on both margins. Examples using real are simulated data are given

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

A capture–recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 × 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture–recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture–recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

An experimental test of response consistency in contingent valuation

We compare hypothetical and observed (experimental) willingness to pay (WTP) for a gradual improvement in the environmental performance of a marketed good (an office table). First, following usual practices in marketing research, subjects’ stated WTP for the improvement is obtained. Second, the same subjects participate in a real reward experiment designed to replicate the scenario valued in the hypothetical question. Our results show that, independently of the degree of the improvement, there are no significant median differences between stated and experimental data. However, subjects reporting extreme values of WTP (low or high) exhibit a more moderate behavior in the experiment.

Anaerobic capacity may not be determined by critical power model in elite table tennis players

The aim of the present study was to verify the applicability of anaerobic work capacity (AWC) determined from the critical power model in elite table tennis players. Eight male international level table tennis players participated in the study. The tests undertaken were: 1) A critical frequency test used to determinate the anaerobic work capacity; 2) Wingate tests were performed using leg and arm ergometers. AWC corresponded to 99.5 +/- 29.1 table tennis balls. AWC was not related to peak (r = -0.25), mean (r = -0.02), relative peak (r = -0.49) or relative mean power (r = 0.01), nor fatigue index (r = -0.52) (Wingate leg ergometer). Similar correlations for peak (r = -0.34), mean (r = -0.04), relative peak (r = -0.49), relative mean power (r = -0.14) and peak blood lactate concentration (r = -0.08) were determined in the Wingate arm ergometer test. Based on these results the AWC determined by a modified critical power test was not a good index for measurement of anaerobic capacity in table tennis players.

Comparative field test between two sugar cane (Saccharum spp.) harvesters under two different operational conditions in Brazil

The sugar cane crop is one of the main products in Brazil and according to several authors can generate, besides the industrialized stalks, an amount of crop residues from the order of 15 to 30 % in weight of the aerial part of the plants, depending on the field conditions. The sugar cane area in Brazil is around 5.5×106 hectares, with an amount of 400.106 tons of stalks, with stalks yield of 72 tons.ha-1. This study took place in a sugar cane plot (Latitude 22°46'S, Longitude 47°23'W and 600m of altitude) with 3% of slope, located in São Paulo State. The sugar cane variety was SP 80-1816, in its forth cut, 11 months old and with a planted row spacing of 1.40 m. By other side, several sugar mills are bringing the crop residue to their patio to produce energy with the bagasse. One choice is to bring the crop residue at the same moment with the stalks, avoiding the next operation of baling it. The objective of this study was to analyze some operational parameters of two different sugar cane harvesters under the same field conditions, which was divided in four treatments: T1 = CAMECO CHT2500B operating normally; T2 = CAMECO CHT2500B operating without the cleaning system; T3 = CASE 7700 operating normally; T4 = CASE 7700 operating without the cleaning system. The results obtained were: Table presented CEB = Gross effective capacity; CEL = Net effective capacity. The conclusion is that under normal operation the CASE harvester worked better then CAMECO in the parameters CEL stalks and Manipulation efficiency. And without the cleaning system operating CASE also worked better in the parameters of CEB raw material, CEB stalks, CEL raw material and CEL stalks.

Analysis of cardiopulmonary and metabolic variables measured during laboratory and sport-specific incremental tests for table tennis performance prediction

Purpose. - The purposes of this study were: i) to compare the physiological responses measured during a specific table tennis incremental test with the physiological responses measured during cycling, arm cranking, and treadmill running tests; and ii) to verify the accuracy of table tennis performance prediction based on the physiological responses from these tests.Methods. - Eleven national level male table tennis players participated in the study and undertook incremental tests using ergometers. Table tennis performance was defined as the ranking obtained during a simulated tournament between the participants.Results. - In general, peak values for physiological variables (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) and [La]PEAK) were significantly lower (P < 0.05) in the specific test (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 39.9 +/- 1.5 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 6.4 +/- 0.5 mmol.L-1) than during cycling (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 41.3 +/- 1.4 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 10.2 +/- 0.7 mmol.L-1) or running (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 43.9 +/- 1.5 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 10.0 +/- 0.7 mmol.L-1), but higher than during arm cranking (e.g., (V) over dotO(2PEAK) = 26.6 +/- 1.6 ml.kg(-1) per minute and [La]PEAK = 8.9 +/- 0.6 mmol.L-1). At respiratory compensation point intensity (RCP), only the variables measured on arm cranking were lower (P < 0.05) than on the other ergometers. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed significant correlation between table tennis performance and lactate concentration ([La]) and also rate of perceived effort (RPE) at RCP during cycling (r = 0.89; P < 0.05).Conclusion. - In conclusion, the significant differences obtained between the specific and laboratory ergometers demonstrate the need to use a specific test to measure physiological parameters in table tennis and the physiological parameters measured, independent of the ergometer used, are unable to predict table tennis performance. (C) 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Comparison of anaerobic threshold, oxygen uptake and heart rate between specific table

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Task complexity reveals expertise of table tennis players

AIM: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of intensive practice in table-­tennis on perceptual, decision-­making and motor-­systems. Groups of elite (HL=11), intermediate (LL=6) and control (CC=11) performed tasks of different levels. METHODS: All subjects underwent to reaction-­time-­test and response-­time-­test consisting of a pointing task to targets placed at distinct distances (15 and 25-­cm) on the right and left sides. The ball speed test in forehand and backhand condition just for HL and LL group. RESULTS: In CC group reaction time was higher compared to HL (P< 0.05) group. In the response-­time-­test, there was a significant main effect of distance (P< 0.0001) and the tennis-­table expertise (P= 0.011). In the ball speed test the HL were constantly faster compared to the LL in both forehand stroke (P< 0.0001) and backhand stroke (P< 0.0001). Overall, the forehand stroke was significantly faster than the backhand stroke. CONCLUSION: We can conclude that table-­tennis-­players have shorter response-­times than non-­athletes and the tasks of reaction-­time and response-­time are incapable to distinguish the performance of well-­trained table tennis players of the intermediate player, but the ball speed test seems be able to do it.