Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The number of open paths in an oriented rho-percolation model

We study the asymptotic properties of the number of open paths of length n in an oriented rho-percolation model. We show that this number is e(n alpha(rho)(1+o(1))) as n ->infinity. The exponent alpha is deterministic, it can be expressed in terms of the free energy of a polymer model, and it can be explicitly computed in some range of the parameters. Moreover, in a restricted range of the parameters, we even show that the number of such paths is n(-1/2)We (n alpha(rho))(1+o(1)) for some nondegenerate random variable W. We build on connections with the model of directed polymers in random environment, and we use techniques and results developed in this context.

Image processing technique to count the number of logs in a timber truck

This paper summarises the results of using image processing technique to get information about the load of timber trucks before their arrival using digital images or geo tagged images. Once the images are captured and sent to sawmill by drivers from forest, we can predict their arrival time using geo tagged coordinates, count the number of (timber) logs piled up in a truck, identify their type and calculate their diameter. With this information we can schedule and prioritise the inflow and unloading of trucks in the light of production schedules and raw material stocks available at the sawmill yard. It is important to keep all the actors in a supply chain integrated coordinated, so that optimal working routines can be reached in the sawmill yard.   

Children's Vocabulary Development : The role of parental input, vocabulary composition and early communicative skills

The aim of this thesis is to examine the early vocabulary development of a sample of Swedish children in relation to parental input and early communicative skills. Three studies are situated in an overall description of early language development in children. The data analyzed in the thesis was collected within a larger project at Stockholm University (SPRINT- “Effects of enhanced parental input on young children’s vocabulary development and subsequent literacy development” [VR 2008-5094]). Data analysis was based on parental report via SECDI, the Swedish version of the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories, and audio recordings. One study examined parental verbal interaction characteristics in three groups of children with varying vocabulary size at 18 months. The stability of vocabulary development at 18 and 24 months was investigated in a larger study, with focus on children’s vocabulary composition and grammatical abilities. The third study examined interrelations among early gestures, receptive and productive vocabulary, and grammar measured with M3L, i.e. three longest utterances, from 12 to 30 months. Overall results of the thesis highlight the importance of early language development. Variability in different characteristics in parental input is associated with variability in child vocabulary size. Children with large early vocabularies exhibit the most stability in vocabulary composition and the earliest grammatical development. Children’s vocabulary composition may reflect individual stylistic variation. Use of early gestures is associated differentially with receptive and productive vocabulary. Results of the thesis have implications for parents, child- and healthcare personnel, as well as researchers and educational practitioners. The results underscore the importance of high quality in adult-child interaction, with rich input fine-tuned to children’s developmental levels and age, together with high awareness of early language development.

Electoral institutions,cleavage structures,and the number of parties

Theory: A classic question in political science concems ",hat deteImines the number of parties that compete in a given polity. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to answering this question, one that emphasizes the role of electorallaws in structuring coalitional incentives, another that emphasizes the importance of pre-existing social cleavages. In tbis paper, we view the number of parties as a product of the interaction between these two forces, following Powell (1982) and Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994). Hypotheses: The effective number of parties in a polity should be a multiplicative rather than an additive function ofthe peImissiveness ofthe electoral system and the heterogeneity ofthe society. Methods: Multiple regression on cross-sectional aggregate electoral statistics. Unlike previous studies, we (1) do not confine attention to developed democracies; (2) explicitly control for the influence of presidential elections, taking account of whether they are concurrent or nonconcurrent, and ofthe effective number ofpresidential candidates; and (3) also control for the presence and operation of upper tiers in legislative elections. Results: The hypothesis is confiImed, both as regards the number of legislative and the number of presidential parties .

Differences in the number of hemocytes in the snail host Biomphalaria tenagophila, resistant and susceptible to Schistosoma mansoni infection

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the bovine genome are associated with the number of oocytes collected during ovum pick up

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Differences in the number of some antennal sensilla of four honey bee (Apis mellifera) types and comparisons with the defensive behaviour

The number of sensilla coeloconica, ampullacea and campaniformia of flagellomeres 3 to 10 of the antennae of workers of four honey bee types (Italian, Caucasian, African and Africanized) was studied by scanning electron microscopy. Comparisons of the four bee types showed that only African and Africanized honey bees did not differ from one another with respect to the number of sensilla coeloconica and ampullacea of flagellomere 10. African and Africanized honey bees and Caucasian and Italian honey bees also did not differ from one another in terms of flagellomere 9. In the other flagellomeres there were no differences among bee types. Italian and Caucasian honey bees differed from Africanized honey bees in terms of number of sensilla campaniformia on flagellomere 6, and Caucasian honey bees differed from African and Africanized honey bees in terms of flagellomere 3. Five significant but random correlation values were obtained between number of antennal sensilla and defensive behaviour in Africanized honey bees. Thus,there is no relationship between antennal structures and defence behaviour.

Gauging U(1) symmetries and the number of right-handed neutrinos

In this Letter we consider that assuming: (a) that the only left-handed neutral fermions are the active neutrinos, (b) that B - L is a gauge symmetry, and (c) that the L assignment is restricted to the integer numbers, the anomaly cancellation imply that at least three right-handed neutrinos must be added to the minimal representation content of the electroweak standard model. However, two types of models arise: (i) the usual one where each of the three identical right-handed neutrinos has total lepton number L = 1: (ii) and the other one in which two of them carry L = 4 while the third one carries L = -5. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the number of singularities in generic deformations of map germs

Let f:C-n, 0 --> C-p, 0 be a K-finite map germ, and let i = (i(1),..., i(k)) be a Boardman symbol such that Sigma(i) has codimension n in the corresponding jet space J(k)(n, p). When its iterated successors have codimension larger than n, the paper gives a list of situations in which the number of Sigma(i) points that appear in a generic deformation of f can be computed algebraically by means of Jacobian ideals of f. This list can be summarised in the following way: f must have rank n - i(1) and, in addition, in the case p = 6, f must be a singularity of type Sigma(i2.i2).

The use of simulation for forecasting the number of docks necessary in an expedition department

The simulation is a very powerful tool to develop more efficient systems, hence it is been widely used with the goal of productivity improvement. Its results, if compared with other methods, are not always optimum; however, if the experiment is rightly elaborated, its results will represent the real situation, enabling its use with a good level of reliability. This work used the simulation (through the ProModel (R) software) in order to study, understand, model and improve the expenditure system of an enterprise, with a premise of keeping the production-delivery flow considering quick, controlled and reliable conditions.