The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results. 

Influence of embedded length on strength of BFRP rods bonded parallel to the grain in low grade timber by pullout-bending tests

Bonded-in rod connections in timber possess many desirable attributes in terms of efficiency, manufacture, performance, aesthetics and cost. In recent years research has been conducted on such connections using fibre reinforced polymers (FRPs) as an alternative to steel. This research programme investigates the pull-out capacity of Basalt FRP rods bonded-in in low grade Irish Sitka Spruce. Embedded length is thought to be the most influential variable contributing to pull- out capacity of bonded-in rods after rod diameter. Previous work has established an optimum embedded length of 15 times the hole diameter. However, this work only considered the effects of axial stress on the bond using a pull-compression testing system which may have given an artificially high pull out capacity as bending effects were neglected. A hinge system was utilised that allows the effects of bending force to be taken in to consideration along with axial forces in a pull-out test. This paper describes an experimental programme where such pull-bending tests were carried out on samples constructed of 12mm diameter BFRP bars with a 2mm glueline thickness and embedded lengths between 80mm and 280mm bonded-in to low-grade timber with an epoxy resin. Nine repetitions of each were tested. A clear increase in pull-out strength was found with increasing embedded length.

Role of the different actin genes during extrusion of capping protein mutant cells in the Drosophila wing blade epithelium

Dissertação mest., Biotecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2008

Conceptualizing and Researching the Professionalization of Religious Education Teachers: Historical and International Perspectives

Current discussions on Religious Education (RE), both in Germany and England, focus on the quality of teaching and the professionality of teachers, but neglect the historical and institutional process of professionalization upon which conceptions of teaching quality and teacher professionality hinge. This article seeks to provide definitional clarity by differentiating between individual and collective professionalization; exploring teacher professionalization in general and in the special case of RE; and operationalizing the concept of RE teacher professionalization for the purposes of planned historical and international comparative research. A three-fold conceptualization of professionalization is proposed, consisting of the following inter-related levels: (1) initial and continuing professional development; (2) professional self-organization and professional politics; and (3) professional knowledge. The breadth, complexity and significance of the historical and institutional processes associated with the professionalization of RE teachers at each of these levels is described and discussed. It is argued that further historical and international comparative research on these lines would contribute a broader and deeper understanding of the presuppositions of RE teacher professionality beyond current debates.

The Teggiolo zone: a key to the Helvetic-Penninic connection (stratigraphy and tectonics in the Val Bavona, Ticino, Central Alps)

The Teggiolo zone is the sedimentary cover of the Antigorio nappe, one of the lowest tectonic units of the Penninic Central Alps. Detailed mapping, stratigraphic and structural analyses, and comparisons with less metamorphic series in several well-studied domains of the Alps, provide a new stratigraphic interpretation. The Teggiolo zone is comprised of several sedimentary cycles, separated by erosive surfaces and large stratigraphic gaps, which cover the time span from Triassic to Eocene. At Mid-Jurassic times it appears as an uplifted, partially emergent block, marking the southern limit of the main Helvetic basin (the Limiting South-Helvetic Rise LSHR). The main mass of the Teggiolo calcschists, whose base truncates the Triassic-Jurassic cycles and can erode the Antigorio basement, consists of fine-grained clastic sediments analogous to the deep-water flyschoid deposits of Late Cretaceous to Eocene age in the North-Penninic (or Valais s.l.) basins. Thus the Antigorio-Teggiolo domain occupies a crucial paleogeographic position, on the boundary between the Helvetic and Penninic realms: from Triassic to Early Cretaceous its affinity is with the Helvetic; at the end of Cretaceous it is incorporated into the North-Penninic basins. An unexpected result is the discovery of the important role played by complex formations of wildflysch type at the top of the Teggiolo zone. They contain blocks of various sizes. According to their nature, three different associations are distinguished that have specific vertical and lateral distributions. These blocks give clues to the existence of territories that have disappeared from the present-day level of observation and impose constraints on the kinematics of early folding and embryonic nappe emplacement. Tectonics produced several phases of superimposed folds and schistosities, more in the metasediments than in the gneissic basement. Older deformations that predate the amplification of the frontal hinge of the nappe generated the dominant schistosity and the km-wide Vanzèla isoclinal fold.

Exploring the politics of intergroup accommodation in Kenya’s vernacular radios during the 2007/08 conflicts

Depuis des années, le Kenya avait donné l’impression d’être un pays relativement stable dans la région d’Afrique sub-saharienne, régulièrement secouée par les conflits, et un « centre » autour duquel la communauté internationale coordonne ses missions vers certains pays d’Afrique comme ceux faisant partie de la Région des Grandes Lacs (Burundi, Rwanda, Ouganda, République démocratique du Congo, Kenya et Tanzanie) et ceux de la Corne de l’Afrique (Kenya, Somalie, Éthiopie, Djibouti et Ouganda). Toutefois, les élections présidentielles très contestées en 2007 et les conflits qui se sont enchaînés ont entrainé de nombreuses préoccupations en ce qui concerne la stabilité du Kenya à l’ère de l’insécurité globale. Alors que le rétablissement de la paix continue, la coexistence entre groupes est toujours délicate car le Kenya compte au moins quarante-deux ethnies qui sont toutes distinctes les unes par rapport aux autres. Par ailleurs, l’ouverture d’une enquête judiciaire, par la Cour Pénale Internationale (CPI), contre quatre des six personnes présumées être les principaux auteurs des violences postélectorales de 2007/08, s’ajoute aux problèmes liés à la coexistence pacifique entre les différents groupes avant les prochaines élections. Cette thèse examine les politiques relatives à l’accommodation des différents groupes à travers les radios vernaculaires et comment ces politiques ont influencé les relations entre les groupes lors des conflits de 2007/08 au Kenya. Partant du constat qu’un conflit est un processus communicatif, elle intègre le concept d’encadrement médiatique à la théorie de Protracted Social Conflict (PSC) définie par Azar (1990) pour tracer non seulement les changements dans les discours d’encadrement de ces conflits, mais aussi pour illustrer les mutations des attitudes à l’égard des relations entre groupes survenues avant, durant et après ces conflits. Cette étude emploie principalement les méthodes qualitatives pour rassembler les données issues des trois régions au Kenya qui sont ethniquement et linguistiquement divergentes: Nyeri (la majorité Kikuyu), Kisumu (la majorité Luo) et Eldoret (la majorité Kalenjin). L’argument central de cette thèse est que l’encadrement des relations entre groupes, notamment lors des conflits, est soit différencié soit concerté dépendamment du stade auquel le conflit se manifeste. Alors que dans l’encadrement différencié, les discours médiatiques sont articulés de façon à ce que ceux-ci soient susceptibles d’entrainer une polarisation entre groupes, l’encadrement concerté décrit les discours médiatiques négociés de manière à ce que ceux-ci reflètent les valeurs partagées au travers des différents groupes, et donc sont susceptibles d’engendrer une coopération entre groupes. J’argumente que les changements dans le discours des radios vernaculaires prennent effet lorsque de nouveaux éléments sont ajoutés aux discours caractérisant un conflit déjà existant, et les « nouveaux significations » que ces éléments apportent à la compréhension du conflit en question. J’argumente également que le changement du l’encadrement différentiée à l’encadrement concerté (et vice-versa) dépende du degré de résonance de ces discours avec la population cible. De façon générale, cette étude suggère que le langage de diffusion et la proximité culturelle induisent l’encadrement entre groupes à travers les radios vernaculaires au Kenya. La force de cette thèse se trouve donc dans les perspectives analytiques qu’elle propose pour localiser les discours changeants lors des conflits, plus particulièrement dans les états multiethniques où les politiques d’accommodation entre les différents groupes demeurent toujours fragiles et conditionnelles.

The Role of Epistemic Monitoring in Language Comprehension

In der psycholinguistischen Forschung ist die Annahme weitverbreitet, dass die Bewertung von Informationen hinsichtlich ihres Wahrheitsgehaltes oder ihrer Plausibilität (epistemische Validierung; Richter, Schroeder & Wöhrmann, 2009) ein strategischer, optionaler und dem Verstehen nachgeschalteter Prozess ist (z.B. Gilbert, 1991; Gilbert, Krull & Malone, 1990; Gilbert, Tafarodi & Malone, 1993; Herbert & Kübler, 2011). Eine zunehmende Anzahl an Studien stellt dieses Zwei-Stufen-Modell von Verstehen und Validieren jedoch direkt oder indirekt in Frage. Insbesondere Befunde zu Stroop-artigen Stimulus-Antwort-Kompatibilitätseffekten, die auftreten, wenn positive und negative Antworten orthogonal zum aufgaben-irrelevanten Wahrheitsgehalt von Sätzen abgegeben werden müssen (z.B. eine positive Antwort nach dem Lesen eines falschen Satzes oder eine negative Antwort nach dem Lesen eines wahren Satzes; epistemischer Stroop-Effekt, Richter et al., 2009), sprechen dafür, dass Leser/innen schon beim Verstehen eine nicht-strategische Überprüfung der Validität von Informationen vornehmen. Ausgehend von diesen Befunden war das Ziel dieser Dissertation eine weiterführende Überprüfung der Annahme, dass Verstehen einen nicht-strategischen, routinisierten, wissensbasierten Validierungsprozesses (epistemisches Monitoring; Richter et al., 2009) beinhaltet. Zu diesem Zweck wurden drei empirische Studien mit unterschiedlichen Schwerpunkten durchgeführt. Studie 1 diente der Untersuchung der Fragestellung, ob sich Belege für epistemisches Monitoring auch bei Informationen finden lassen, die nicht eindeutig wahr oder falsch, sondern lediglich mehr oder weniger plausibel sind. Mithilfe des epistemischen Stroop-Paradigmas von Richter et al. (2009) konnte ein Kompatibilitätseffekt von aufgaben-irrelevanter Plausibilität auf die Latenzen positiver und negativer Antworten in zwei unterschiedlichen experimentellen Aufgaben nachgewiesen werden, welcher dafür spricht, dass epistemisches Monitoring auch graduelle Unterschiede in der Übereinstimmung von Informationen mit dem Weltwissen berücksichtigt. Darüber hinaus belegen die Ergebnisse, dass der epistemische Stroop-Effekt tatsächlich auf Plausibilität und nicht etwa auf der unterschiedlichen Vorhersagbarkeit von plausiblen und unplausiblen Informationen beruht. Das Ziel von Studie 2 war die Prüfung der Hypothese, dass epistemisches Monitoring keinen evaluativen Mindset erfordert. Im Gegensatz zu den Befunden anderer Autoren (Wiswede, Koranyi, Müller, Langner, & Rothermund, 2013) zeigte sich in dieser Studie ein Kompatibilitätseffekt des aufgaben-irrelevanten Wahrheitsgehaltes auf die Antwortlatenzen in einer vollständig nicht-evaluativen Aufgabe. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass epistemisches Monitoring nicht von einem evaluativen Mindset, möglicherweise aber von der Tiefe der Verarbeitung abhängig ist. Studie 3 beleuchtete das Verhältnis von Verstehen und Validieren anhand einer Untersuchung der Online-Effekte von Plausibilität und Vorhersagbarkeit auf Augenbewegungen beim Lesen kurzer Texte. Zusätzlich wurde die potentielle Modulierung dieser Effeke durch epistemische Marker, die die Sicherheit von Informationen anzeigen (z.B. sicherlich oder vielleicht), untersucht. Entsprechend der Annahme eines schnellen und nicht-strategischen epistemischen Monitoring-Prozesses zeigten sich interaktive Effekte von Plausibilität und dem Vorhandensein epistemischer Marker auf Indikatoren früher Verstehensprozesse. Dies spricht dafür, dass die kommunizierte Sicherheit von Informationen durch den Monitoring-Prozess berücksichtigt wird. Insgesamt sprechen die Befunde gegen eine Konzeptualisierung von Verstehen und Validieren als nicht-überlappenden Stufen der Informationsverarbeitung. Vielmehr scheint eine Bewertung des Wahrheitsgehalts oder der Plausibilität basierend auf dem Weltwissen – zumindest in gewissem Ausmaß – eine obligatorische und nicht-strategische Komponente des Sprachverstehens zu sein. Die Bedeutung der Befunde für aktuelle Modelle des Sprachverstehens und Empfehlungen für die weiterführende Forschung zum Vehältnis von Verstehen und Validieren werden aufgezeigt.

The effect of the spacer length on the nature of coupling in side chain liquid crystals polymers and elastomers

Side chain liquid crystal polymers and elastomers exhibit a rich phase behaviour which arises from the antagonistic influences of the entropically disordered polymer chain configuration and the long range orientational ordering of the mesogenic units. This competition arises since the natural macroscopic phase separation is inhibited by the inherent chemical connectivity of the system. At the heart of this connectivity is the spacer link and we consider here its influence on the phase behaviour. In particular we consider a series of elastomers in which the number of alkyl units in the spacer is systematically varied from 2 to 6. The lengthening of the coupling spacer is accompanied by an alternation of the sign of coupling between the polymer chain and the mesogenic unit. These results demonstrate the dominating influence of the so-called hinge effect in determining the phase behaviour. In addition to the alternation of the sign there is some decrease in the magnitude of the coupling with increasing spacer length.

Structure of the ROC domain from the Parkinson's disease-associated leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 reveals a dimeric GTPase

Mutations in leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) are the most common cause of Parkinson's disease (PD). LRRK2 contains a Ras of complex proteins (ROC) domain that may act as a GTPase to regulate its protein kinase activity. The structure of ROC and the mechanism(s) by which it regulates kinase activity are not known. Here, we report the crystal structure of the LRRK2 ROC domain in complex with GDP-Mg2+ at 2.0-Å resolution. The structure displays a dimeric fold generated by extensive domain-swapping, resulting in a pair of active sites constructed with essential functional groups contributed from both monomers. Two PD-associated pathogenic residues, R1441 and I1371, are located at the interface of two monomers and provide exquisite interactions to stabilize the ROC dimer. The structure demonstrates that loss of stabilizing forces in the ROC dimer is likely related to decreased GTPase activity resulting from mutations at these sites. Our data suggest that the ROC domain may regulate LRRK2 kinase activity as a dimer, possibly via the C-terminal of ROC (COR) domain as a molecular hinge. The structure of the LRRK2 ROC domain also represents a signature from a previously undescribed class of GTPases from complex proteins and results may provide a unique molecular target for therapeutics in PD.

Crystallographic structure and substrate-binding interactions of the molybdate-binding protein of the phytopathogen Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri

In Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri (Xac or X citri), the modA gene codes for a periplasmic protein (ModA) that is capable of binding molybdate and tungstate as part of the ABC-type transporter required for the uptake of micronutrients. In this study, we report the crystallographic structure of the Xac ModA protein with bound molybdate. The Xac ModA structure is similar to orthologs with known three-dimensional structures and consists of two nearly symmetrical domains separated by a hinge region where the oxyanion-binding site lies. Phylogenetic analysis of different ModA orthologs based on sequence alignments revealed three groups of molybdate-binding proteins: bacterial phytopathogens, enterobacteria and soil bacteria. Even though the ModA orthologs are segregated into different groups, the ligand-binding hydrogen bonds are mostly conserved, except for Archaeglobus fulgidus ModA. A detailed discussion of hydrophobic interactions in the active site is presented and two new residues, Ala(38) and Ser(151), are shown to be part of the ligand-binding pocket. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Magnetic fabric and zircon U-Pb geochronology of the Itaoca pluton: Implications for the Brasiliano deformation of the southern Ribeira Belt (SE Brazil)

The Itaoca pluton consists of porphyritic monzogranite that intruded the upper crust into low-grade metasedimentary rocks of the Apiai Dornain (Ribeira Belt). Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and zircon U-Pb (Shrimp) geochronology were combined to determine pluton emplacement mechanisms and its chronology relative to the collision structures of the Paranapiacaba (Brasiliano II) orogenic system. Magnetic susceptibility ranges between 4 and 38 x 10(-3) SI, and thermomagnetic measurements indicate multidomain magnetite is the main carrier of anisotropy. The pluton shows an ""onion-skin"" structure roughly elongated to the northeast with its hinge zone including kilometer-wide roof-pendants. Magnetic lineations are variable in orientation in consistency with the dominant oblate symmetry of the magnetic fabric. A distinct NE-trending point-maxima, however, indicates the mean lineation is parallel to the stretching direction of the transpressive deformation that affected the regional host rocks. Prismatic zircon from the monzogranite, both in the core and in the finely-zoned margins, yielded an age of 623 +/- 10 Ma. These results suggest the magmatic fabric recorded the earlier strain increments of the regional shear deformation. It may correspond to the transition from continental arc to collision tectonics of the southern Ribeira Belt. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Description of loxocythere (novoloxocythere) pelius subgen. sp. nov. (ostracoda) from the cenozoic of S.E. Australia with comments on species of antarctiloxoconcha hartmann, 1986 and loxoreticulatum benson, 1964 from Australian and Antarctic marine waters

Loxocythere (Novoloxocythere) pelius subgen. et sp. nov. is described from Upper Miocene strata of the Port Phillip and Western Port Basins. Victoria. It has its acme in shallow open marine facies of latest Miocene (Cheltenhamian) age. This species, along with Loxocythere (Novoloxocythere) kerryswansoni Yassini and Jones, 1995, forms a discrete group of rotund Australian Loxocythere species that possess posterior extremities in both valves that are positioned well above mid carapace height (i.e. adjacent to dorsal margin). This feature along with a sub-triangular inner margin outline, defines a carapace shape that is distinct from that of rotund species of Loxocythere (loxocythere) Hornibrook, 1952 and Antarctiloxoconcha Hartmann, 1986. The type species of Antarctiloxoconcha – A.frigida (Neale. 1967), possesses internal carapace features that are very similar to the type species of Loxocythere - L. crassa Hornibrook, 1952. Both have relatively short carapaces and sub-quadrate inner margin outlines with posterior extremities in both valves positioned below mid carapace height. Species of Loxocythere (Novoloxocythere), in particular L. (N.) kerryswansoni, have a carapace shape that is transitional between Loxocythere and Loxoreticulatum Benson, 1964. Species of Loxoreticulatum generally possess a sub-parallelogram shaped carapace/inner margin and arched median hinge element. The latter feature is distinct from the mostly straight median hinge elements of Loxocythere (Loxocythere) and Loxocythere (Novoloxocythere) species. Species of Loxocythere (Novoloxocythere) are also readily distinguishable from relatively elongate species of Loxocythere, such as L. (L.) hornibrooki McKenzie, 1967, as the latter possess long (for genus), sub-rectangular shaped carapaces/inner margin outlines and posterior extremities below mid height.

Incorporation of a molecular hinge into molecular tweezers by using tandem gycloadditions onto 5,6-Dimenthylenenorbornene

Site-selective 1,3-dipolar coupling at the norbornene p-bond of 5,6-dimethylenenorbornene 1 yields cycloadducts with an end-fused 1,3-diene system which have been reacted with N=N (or C=C) dienophiles to produce ribbon molecules, in which the internal diazacyclohexene (or cyclohexene) subunits are capable of acting as conformational hinges. Direct coupling of 5,6-dimethylenenorbornene with 1,3,4-oxadiazoles or dual coupling with bis(cyclobutene epoxides) afforded bis(1,3-dienes) that diastereoselectively react with dienophiles to produce new, conformationally mobile, molecular tweezers.

The mode of evolution of aggregation pheromones in Drosophila species

Aggregation pheromones are used by fruit flies of the genus Drosophila to assemble on breeding substrates, where they feed, mate and oviposit communally. These pheromones consist of species-specific blends of chemicals. Here, using a phylogenetic framework, we examine how differences among species in these pheromone blends have evolved. Theoretical predictions, genetic evidence, and previous empirical analysis of bark beetle species, suggest that aggregation pheromones do not evolve gradually, but via major, saltational shifts in chemical composition. Using pheromone data for 28 species of Drosophila we show that, unlike with bark beetles, the distribution of chemical components among species is highly congruent with their phylogeny, with closely related species being more similar in their pheromone blends than are distantly related species. This pattern is also strong within the melanogaster species group, but less so within the virilis species group. Our analysis strongly suggests that the aggregation pheromones of Drosophila exhibit a gradual, not saltational, mode of evolution. We propose that these findings reflect the function of the pheromones in the ecology of Drosophila, which does not hinge on species specificity of aggregation pheromones as signals.

Challenges of multimedia self-presentation : taking, and mistaking, the show on the road

One privilege enjoyed by new-media authors is the opportunity to realize representations of Self that are rich textual worlds in themselves and also to engage the wider world, with a voice, a smile, imagery, and sound. Still, closer investigation of multimedia composition practices reveals levels of complexity with which the verbal virtuoso is unconcerned. This article argues that while technology-afforded multimedia tools make it comparatively easy to author a vivid text, it is a multiplicatively more complicated matter to vividly realize and publicize an authorial intention. Based on analysis of the digital story creation process of a youth named “Steven,” the authors attempt to demonstrate the operation of two forces upon which the successful multimodal realization of the author's intention may hinge: “fixity” and “fluidity.” The authors show how, within the process of digital self-representation, these forces can intersect to influence multimodal meaning making, and an author's life, in consequential ways.