A new playing field: retrospective voting and soccer in Brazil

O propósito deste estudo é analisar o possível impacto que um viés emocional possa ter nos julgamentos dos eleitores. Nesse sentido utilizamos o futebol como fonte exógena de um choque. O nosso modelo de efeitos fixos nos leva a concluir que vitórias de equipes no final de semana da eleição estão associadas a maior votação no incumbente indicando que um viés emocional pode influenciar o eleitor.

Sviluppo di un ambiente software di test e analisi delle prestazioni di INS di livello navigation e tactical grade

In questa tesi abbiamo provato a definire fino a che punto le misure di sensori siano affidabili, creando un simulatore che sia in grado di analizzare, qualitativamente e quantitativamente, le prestazioni di sensori inerziali facenti parte di sistemi di navigazione inerziale. Non ci siamo soffermati troppo sulle dinamiche dovute agli errori deterministici, che sono eliminabili facilmente mediante prove sperimentali e test, ma abbiamo puntato ad uno studio approfondito riguardante gli errori dovuti a processi stocastici casuali. Il simulatore, programmato sulla piattaforma MATLAB/Simulink, prende i dati grezzi contenuti all’interno dei datasheets dei sensori e li simula, riportando risultati numerici e grafici degli errori risultanti dall’utilizzo di quei specifici sensori; in particolare, esso mette in luce l’andamento degli errori di posizione, velocità ed assetto ad ogni istante di tempo della simulazione. L’analisi effettuata all’interno dell’elaborato ha successivamente condotto all’identificazione dei giroscopi laser come i sensori che soffrono meno di questi disturbi non-sistematici, portandoli ad un livello sopraelevato rispetto ai MEMS ed ai FOG.

How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting and Attitudes

This crucial volume significantly advances the study of policy feedbacks. With contributions from many subfields and methodological approaches, it offers both sophisticated theorizing and new empirical examples that show how policies make politics in a variety of ways. Innovative research designs provide more convincing inference than ever. And the normative questions engaged about welfare performance, evaluation, participation, and accountability could not be more important or timely in this era of austerity and discord over the future of welfare states.’

Minimizing the Threat of a Positive Majority Deficit in Two-tier Voting Systems with Equipopulous Units

The mean majority deficit in a two-tier voting system is a function of the partition of the population. We derive a new square-root rule: For odd-numbered population sizes and equipopulous units the mean majority deficit is maximal when the member size of the units in the partition is close to the square root of the population size. Furthermore, within the partitions into roughly equipopulous units, partitions with small even numbers of units or small even-sized units yield high mean majority deficits. We discuss the implications for the winner-takes-all system in the US Electoral College.

Moral Politics: The Religious Factor in Referenda Voting

This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1,000 respondents each conducted after every referendum on moral policies in Switzerland between 1992 and 2012. Results based on cross-classified multilevel models show that religious behaving instead of nominal religious belonging plays a crucial role in decision making on moral issues. This supports the idea that the traditional confessional cleavage is replaced by a new religious cleavage that divides the religious from the secular. This newer cleavage is characterized by party alignments that extend from electoral to direct democratic voting behavior. Overall, our study lends support to previous findings drawn from American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion.

Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.