Systematic integration of human factors in the specification of requirements for new railway technologies

Engineering design processes are necessary to attain the requisite standards of integrity for high-assurance safety-related systems. Additionally, human factors design initiatives can provide critical insights that parameterise their development. Unfortunately, the popular perception of human factors as a “forced marriage” between engineering and psychology often provokes views where the ‘human factor’ is perceived as a threat to systems design. Some popular performance-based standards for developing safety-related systems advocate identifying and managing human factors throughout the system lifecycle. However, they also have a tendency to fall short in their guidance on the application of human factors methods and tools, let alone how the outputs generated can be integrated in to various stages of the design process. This case study describes a project that converged engineering with human factors to develop a safety argument for new low-cost railway level crossing technology for system-wide implementation in Australia. The paper enjoins the perspectives of a software engineer and cognitive psychologist and their involvement in the project over two years of collaborative work to develop a safety argument for low-cost level crossing technology. Safety and reliability requirements were informed by applying human factors analytical tools that supported the evaluation and quantification of human reliability where users interfaced with the technology. The project team was confronted with significant challenges in cross-disciplinary engagement, particularly with the complexities of dealing with incongruences in disciplinary language. They were also encouraged to think ‘outside the box’ as to how users of a system interpreted system states and ehaviour. Importantly, some of these states, while considered safe within the boundary of the constituent systems that implemented safety-related functions, could actually lead the users to engage in deviant behaviour. Psychology explained how user compliance could be eroded to levels that effectively undermined levels of risk reduction afforded by systems. Linking the engineering and psychology disciplines intuitively, overall safety performance was improved by introducing technical requirements and making design decisions that minimized the system states and behaviours that led to user deviancy. As a commentary on the utility of transdisciplinary collaboration for technical specification, the processes used to bridge the two disciplines are conceptualised in a graphical model.

How to sequence and annotate insect mitochondrial genomes for systematic and comparative genomics research

Over the past decade the mitochondrial (mt) genome has become the most widely used genomic resource available for systematic entomology. While the availability of other types of ‘–omics’ data – in particular transcriptomes – is increasing rapidly, mt genomes are still vastly cheaper to sequence and are far less demanding of high quality templates. Furthermore, almost all other ‘–omics’ approaches also sequence the mt genome, and so it can form a bridge between legacy and contemporary datasets. Mitochondrial genomes have now been sequenced for all insect orders, and in many instances representatives of each major lineage within orders (suborders, series or superfamilies depending on the group). They have also been applied to systematic questions at all taxonomic scales from resolving interordinal relationships (e.g. Cameron et al., 2009; Wan et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2012), through many intraordinal (e.g. Dowton et al., 2009; Timmermans et al., 2010; Zhao et al. 2013a) and family-level studies (e.g. Nelson et al., 2012; Zhao et al., 2013b) to population/biogeographic studies (e.g. Ma et al., 2012). Methodological issues around the use of mt genomes in insect phylogenetic analyses and the empirical results found to date have recently been reviewed by Cameron (2014), yet the technical aspects of sequencing and annotating mt genomes were not covered. Most papers which generate new mt genome report their methods in a simplified form which can be difficult to replicate without specific knowledge of the field. Published studies utilize a sufficiently wide range of approaches, usually without justification for the one chosen, that confusion about commonly used jargon such as ‘long PCR’ and ‘primer walking’ could be a serious barrier to entry. Furthermore, sequenced mt genomes have been annotated (gene locations defined) to wildly varying standards and improving data quality through consistent annotation procedures will benefit all downstream users of these datasets. The aims of this review are therefore to: 1. Describe in detail the various sequencing methods used on insect mt genomes; 2. Explore the strengths/weakness of different approaches; 3. Outline the procedures and software used for insect mt genome annotation, and; 4. Highlight quality control steps used for new annotations, and to improve the re-annotation of previously sequenced mt genomes used in systematic or comparative research.

Wellness programs at firefighter and police workplaces : a systematic review

Objectives This systematic review summarizes the literature on the health effects of wellness programs at police and firefighter workplaces. The review also considers process outcomes and economic evaluations of such programs. Methods A systematic search of articles published from January 1, 2000 through September 1, 2012 in 13 databases was conducted. Data on 7 studies from 9 articles were extracted. An assessment of the methodological quality of the studies was conducted. Results Studies showed acceptable completion rates and high satisfaction with programs, but mixed results for changes in individual outcomes. Conclusion Empirical evidence for effective health and wellness programs in police and firefighter populations is scarce. Better evaluation and documentation of such programs is needed to advance this field of research.

The impact of nurse practitioner services on cost, quality of care, satisfaction and wait times in the emergency department: A systematic review

Aims To provide the best available evidence to determine the impact of nurse practitioner services on cost, quality of care, satisfaction and waiting times in the emergency department for adult patients. Background The delivery of quality care in the emergency department is one of the most important service indicators in health delivery. Increasing service pressures in the emergency department have resulted in the adoption of service innovation models: the most common and rapidly expanding of these is emergency nurse practitioner services. The rapid uptake of emergency nurse practitioner service in Australia has outpaced the capacity to evaluate this service model in terms of outcomes related to safety and quality of patient care. Previous research is now outdated and not commensurate with the changing domain of delivering emergency care with nurse practitioner services. Data A comprehensive search of four electronic databases from 2006-­‐2013 was conducted to identify research evaluating nurse practitioner service impact in the emergency department. English language articles were sought using MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane and included two previous systematic reviews completed five and seven years ago. Methods A three step approach was used. Following a comprehensive search, two reviewers assessed identified studies against the inclusion criteria. From the original 1013 studies, 14 papers were retained for critical appraisal on methodological quality by two independent reviewers and data extracted using standardised tools. Results Narrative synthesis was conducted to summarise and report the findings as insufficient data was available for meta-­‐analysis of results. This systematic review has shown that emergency nurse practitioner service has a positive impact on quality of care, patient satisfaction and waiting times. There was insufficient evidence to draw conclusions regarding impact on costs. Conclusion Synthesis of the available research attempts to provide an evidence base for emergency nurse practitioner service to guide healthcare leaders, policy makers and clinicians in reforming emergency department service provision. The findings suggest that further quality research is required for comparative measures of clinical and service effectiveness of emergency nurse practitioner service. In the context of increased health service demand and the need to provide timely and effective care to patients, such measures will assist in delivering quality patient care.

4DCT radiotherapy for NSCLC: A review of planning methods

Purpose To establish whether the use of a passive or active technique of planning target volume (PTV) definition and treatment methods for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) deliver the most effective results. This literature review assesses the advantages and disadvantages in recent studies of each, while assessing the validity of the two approaches for planning and treatment. Methods A systematic review of literature focusing on the planning and treatment of radiation therapy to NSCLC tumours. Different approaches which have been published in recent articles are subjected to critical appraisal in order to determine their relative efficacy. Results Free-breathing (FB) is the optimal method to perform planning scans for patients and departments, as it involves no significant increase in cost, workload or education. Maximum intensity projection (MIP) is the fastest form of delineation, however it is noted to be less accurate than the ten-phase overlap approach for computed tomography (CT). Although gating has proven to reduce margins and facilitate sparing of organs at risk, treatment times can be longer and planning time can be as much as 15 times higher for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). This raises issues with patient comfort and stabilisation, impacting on the chance of geometric miss. Stereotactic treatments can take up to 3 hours to treat, along with increases in planning and treatment, as well as the additional hardware, software and training required. Conclusion Four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) is superior to 3DCT, with the passive FB approach for PTV delineation and treatment optimal. Departments should use a combination of MIP with visual confirmation ensuring coverage for stage 1 disease. Stages 2-3 should be delineated using ten-phases overlaid. Stereotactic and gated treatments for early stage disease should be used accordingly; FB-IMRT is optimal for latter stage disease.

Advance Care Planning in palliative care : a systematic literature review of the contextual factors influencing its uptake 2008-2012

Background: Advance Care Planning is an iterative process of discussion, decision-making and documentation about end-of-life care. Advance Care Planning is highly relevant in palliative care due to intersecting clinical needs. To enhance the implementation of Advance Care Planning, the contextual factors influencing its uptake need to be better understood. Aim: To identify the contextual factors influencing the uptake of Advance Care Planning in palliative care as published between January 2008 and December 2012. Methods: Databases were systematically searched for studies about Advance Care Planning in palliative care published between January 2008 and December 2012. This yielded 27 eligible studies, which were appraised using National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Quality Appraisal Checklists. Iterative thematic synthesis was used to group results. Results: Factors associated with greater uptake included older age, a college degree, a diagnosis of cancer, greater functional impairment, being white, greater understanding of poor prognosis and receiving or working in specialist palliative care. Barriers included having non-malignant diagnoses, having dependent children, being African American, and uncertainty about Advance Care Planning and its legal status. Individuals’ previous illness experiences, preferences and attitudes also influenced their participation. Conclusion: Factors influencing the uptake of Advance Care Planning in palliative care are complex and multifaceted reflecting the diverse and often competing needs of patients, health professionals, legislature and health systems. Large population-based studies of palliative care patients are required to develop the sound theoretical and empirical foundation needed to improve uptake of Advance Care Planning in this setting.

Health consequences of exposure to brominated flame retardants : a systematic review

Background Brominated flame retardants (BFRs), are chemicals widely used in consumer products including electronics, vehicles, plastics and textiles to reduce flammability. Experimental animal studies have confirmed that these compounds may interfere with thyroid hormone homeostasis and neurodevelopment but to date health effects in humans have not been systematically examined. Objectives To conduct a systematic review of studies on the health impacts of exposure to BFRs in humans, with a particular focus on children. Methods A systematic review was conducted using the Medline and EMBASE electronic databases up to 1 February 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies exploring the relationship between BFR exposure and various health outcomes were included. Results In total, 36 epidemiological studies meeting the pre-determined inclusion criteria were included. Plausible outcomes associated with BFR exposure include diabetes, neurobehavioral and developmental disorders, cancer, reproductive health effects and alteration in thyroid function. Evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to BFRs and health outcomes was evaluated within the Bradford Hill framework. Conclusion Although there is suggestive evidence that exposure to BFRs is harmful to health, further epidemiological investigations particularly among children, and long-term monitoring and surveillance of chemical impacts on humans are required to confirm these relationships.

Systematic review of pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic interventions to manage cognitive alterations after chemotherapy for breast cancer

Purpose Cognitive alterations are reported in breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy. This has adverse effects on patients’ quality of life and function. This systematic review investigates the effectiveness of pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic interventions to manage cognitive alterations associated with breast cancer treatment. Methods Medline via EBSCOhost, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for the period January 1999 to May 2014 for prospective randomized controlled trials related to the management of chemotherapy-associated cognitive alterations. Included studies investigated the management of chemotherapy-associated cognitive alterations and used subjective or objective measures in patients with breast cancer during or after chemotherapy. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Results Thirteen studies involving 1138 participants were included. Overall, the risk of bias for the 13 studies were either high (n=11) or unclear (n=2). Pharmacologic interventions included psychostimulants (n=4), epoetin alfa (n=1), and Ginkgo biloba (n=1). Non-pharmacologic interventions were cognitive training (n=5) and physical activity (n=2). Pharmacologic agents were ineffective except for self-reported cognitive function in an epoetin alfa study. Cognitive training interventions demonstrated benefits in self-reported cognitive function, memory, verbal function and language and orientation/attention. Physical activity interventions were effective in improving executive function and self-reported concentration. Conclusion Current evidence does not favor the pharmacologic management of cognitive alterations associated with breast cancer treatment. Cognitive training and physical activity interventions appear promising, but additional studies are required to establish their efficacy. Further research is needed to overcome methodological shortfalls such as heterogeneity in participant characteristics and non-standardized neuropsychological outcome measures.

Health consequences of exposure to e-waste : a systematic review

Background The population exposed to potentially hazardous substances through inappropriate and unsafe management practices related to disposal and recycling of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, collectively known as e-waste, is increasing. We aimed to summarise the evidence for the association between such exposures and adverse health outcomes. Methods We systematically searched five electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, PsycNET, and CINAHL) for studies assessing the association between exposure to e-waste and outcomes related to mental health and neurodevelopment, physical health, education, and violence and criminal behaviour, from Jan 1, 1965, to Dec 17, 2012, and yielded 2274 records. Of the 165 full-text articles assessed for eligibility, we excluded a further 142, resulting in the inclusion of 23 published epidemiological studies that met the predetermined criteria. All studies were from southeast China. We assessed evidence of a causal association between exposure to e-waste and health outcomes within the Bradford Hill framework. Findings We recorded plausible outcomes associated with exposure to e-waste including change in thyroid function, changes in cellular expression and function, adverse neonatal outcomes, changes in temperament and behaviour, and decreased lung function. Boys aged 8–9 years living in an e-waste recycling town had a lower forced vital capacity than did those living in a control town. Significant negative correlations between blood chromium concentrations and forced vital capacity in children aged 11 and 13 years were also reported. Findings from most studies showed increases in spontaneous abortions, stillbirths, and premature births, and reduced birthweights and birth lengths associated with exposure to e-waste. People living in e-waste recycling towns or working in e-waste recycling had evidence of greater DNA damage than did those living in control towns. Studies of the effects of exposure to e-waste on thyroid function were not consistent. One study related exposure to e-waste and waste electrical and electronic equipment to educational outcomes. Interpretation Although data suggest that exposure to e-waste is harmful to health, more well designed epidemiological investigations in vulnerable populations, especially pregnant women and children, are needed to confirm these associations. Funding Children's Health and Environment Program, Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, The University of Queensland, Australia.

Public space for street-scape theatrics : guerrilla spatial tactics and methods of urban hacking in Brisbane, Australia

It could be argued that architecture has an inherent social responsibility to enrich the urban and spatial environments for the city’s occupants. However how we define quality, and how ‘places’ can be designed to be fair and equitable, catering for individuals on a humanistic and psychological level, is often not clearly addressed. Lefebvre discusses the idea of the ‘right to the city’; the belief that public space design should facilitate freedom of expression and incite a sense of spatial ownership for its occupants in public/commercial precincts. Lefebvre also points out the importance of sensory experience in the urban environment. “Street-scape theatrics” are performative activities that summarise these two concepts, advocating the ‘right to the city’ by way of art as well as providing sensual engagement for city users. Literature discusses the importance of Street-scape Theatrics however few sources attempt to discuss this topic in terms of how to design these spaces/places to enhance the city on both a sensory and political level. This research, grounded in political theory, investigates the case of street music, in particular busking, in the city of Brisbane, Australia. Street culture is a notion that already exists in Brisbane, but it is heavily controlled especially in central locations. The study discusses how sensory experience of the urban environment in Brisbane can be enriched through the design for busking; multiple case studies, interviews, observations and thematic mappings provide data to gather an understanding of how street performers see and understand the built form. Results are sometime surprisingly incongruous with general assumptions in regards to street artist as well as the established political and ideological framework, supporting the idea that the best and most effective way of urban hacking is working within the system. Ultimately, it was found that the Central Business District in Brisbane, Australia, could adopt certain political and design tactics which attempt to reconcile systematic quality control with freedom of expression into the public/commercial sphere, realism upheld. This can bridge the gap between the micro scale of the body and the macro of the political economy through freedom of expression, thus celebrating the idiosyncratic nature of the city.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the provision of information for adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers

Background: Adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers have significant information needs. This review assessed the effect of interventions to improve information provision for adult primary brain tumor patients and/or their caregivers. Methods: We included randomized or nonrandomized trials testing educational interventions that had outcomes of information provision, knowledge, understanding, recall, or satisfaction with the intervention, for adults diagnosed with primary brain tumors and/or their family or caregivers. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Reviews databases were searched for studies published between 1980 and June 2014. Results: Two randomized controlled, one non-randomized controlled, and 10 single group pre-post trials enrolled more than 411 participants. Five group, four practice/process change and four individual interventions assessed satisfaction (12 studies), knowledge (four studies) or information provision (2 studies). Nine studies reported high rates of satisfaction. Three studies showed statistically significant improvements over time in knowledge and two showed greater information was provided to intervention than control group participants, although statistical testing was not performed. Discussion: The trials assessed intermediate outcomes such as satisfaction, and only 4/13 reported on knowledge improvements. Few trials had a randomized controlled design and risk of bias was either evident or could not be assessed in most domains.

A systematic review of patient-reported outcome instruments of dermatologic adverse events associated with targeted cancer therapies

Purpose Dermatologic adverse events (dAEs) in cancer treatment are frequent with the use of targeted therapies. These dAEs have been shown to have significant impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). While standardized assessment tools have been developed for physicians to assess severity of dAEs, there is a discord between objective and subjective measures. The identification of patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments useful in the context of targeted cancer therapies is therefore important in both the clinical and research settings for the overall evaluation of dAEs and their impact on HRQoL. Methods A comprehensive, systematic literature search of published articles was conducted by two independent reviewers in order to identify PRO instruments previously utilized in patient populations with dAEs from targeted cancer therapies. The identified PRO instruments were studied to determine which HRQoL issues relevant to dAEs were addressed, as well as the process of development and validation of these instruments. Results Thirteen articles identifying six PRO instruments met the inclusion criteria. Four instruments were general dermatology (Skindex-16©, Skindex-29©, Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), and DIELH-24) and two were symptom-specific (functional assessment of cancer therapy-epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor-18 (FACT-EGFRI-18) and hand-foot syndrome-14 (HFS-14)). Conclusions While there are several PRO instruments that have been tested in the context of targeted cancer therapy, additional work is needed to develop new instruments and to further validate the instruments identified in this study in patients receiving targeted therapies.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. Methods and Findings A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. Conclusions This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.