Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Variation of System Performance with Design and Climate for Combisystems in Sweden

In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.

The actual status of the development of a Danish/Swedish system concept of a solar combisystem

At the beginning of 2003 the four year long research project REBUS on education, research, development and demonstration of competitive solar combisystems was launched. Research groups in Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Latvia are working together with partners from industry on innovative solutions for solar heating in the Nordic countries. Existing system concepts have been analyzed and based on the results new system designs have been developed. The proposed solutions have to fulfill country specific technical, sociological and cost requirements. Due to the similar demands on the systems in Denmark and Sweden it has been decided to develop a common system concept for both countries, which increases the market potential for the manufacturer. The focus of the development is on systems for the large number of rather well insulated existing single family houses. In close collaboration with the industrial partners a system concept has been developed that is characterized by its high compactness and flexibility. It allows the use of different types of boilers, heating distribution systems and a variable store and collector size. Two prototypes have been built, one for the Danish market with a gas boiler, and one for the Swedish market with a pellet boiler as auxiliary heater. After intensive testing and eventual further improvements at least two systems will be installed and monitored in demonstration houses. The systems have been modeled in TRNSYS and the simulation results will be used to further improve the system and evaluate the system performance.

Justice in Medicare : recent changes to the public health care system

This article sets out and examines a number of changes proposed by the Commonwealth Government to the Australian Medicare system as part of the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 federal budgets, and the 2004 federal election campaign. In assessing the suitability of these reforms, the idea of justice is discussed. Health, as a basic good, is argued to be a matter of distributional and rectificatory justice. A number of popular material principles of justice are also examined and shown to be unsuited as sole determinants of health care resource allocation decisions. In light of this, various problems with the reforms are identified and improvements suggested.

Environmental management system auditing within Australasian companies

Reviews the literature on environmental management auditing, and surveys 132 ISO 14001 certified organizations in Australia and in New Zealand. Identifies the main reason for internal environmental audit, and the most frequent actions that result from the audit process, such as formation of a preventive plan. Looks at review procedures by top management, and the frequency of audit. Reveals the length of time an audit takes and the method of documentation adopted, by different industries. Notes six major findings and recommends sharing the findings of audits with employees and  suppliers so that improvements can be identified and implemented.

Development of a building integrated photovoltaic/thermal solar energy cogeneration system

Using renewable energy sources for onsite cogeneration from structural building elements is a relatively new concept and is gaining considerable interest. In this study the design, development, manufacturing and testing of a novel building integrated photovoltaic/thermal (BIPVT) solar energy cogeneration system is discussed.

Adhesives (ADH), resistance seam welding (RSW) and autoclaving (ATC) were identified as the most appropriate for fabricating BIPVT roofing panels. Of these manufacturing methods ADH was found to be most suitable for low volume production systems due to its low capital cost.

A prototype panel, fabricated using ADH methods, exhibited good thermal performance. It was also shown that BIPVT performance could be theoretically predicted using a one dimensional heat transfer model and showed excellent agreement with experimental data. The model was used to suggest further design improvements. Finally, a transient simulation of the BIPVT was performed in TRNSYS and is used to illustrate the benefits of the system.

Programmer friendly and efficient distributed shared memory integrated into a distributed operating system

Distributed Shared Memory (DSM) provides programmers with a shared memory environment in systems where memory is not physically shared. Clusters of Workstations (COWs), an often untapped source of computing power, are characterised by a very low cost/performance ratio. The combination of Clusters of Workstations (COWs) with DSM provides an environment in which the programmer can use the well known approaches and methods of programming for physically shared memory systems and parallel processing can be carried out to make full use of the computing power and cost advantages of the COW. The aim of this research is to synthesise and develop a distributed shared memory system as an integral part of an operating system in order to provide application programmers with a convenient environment in which the development and execution of parallel applications can be done easily and efficiently, and which does this in a transparent manner. Furthermore, in order to satisfy our challenging design requirements we want to demonstrate that the operating system into which the DSM system is integrated should be a distributed operating system. In this thesis a study into the synthesis of a DSM system within a microkernel and client-server based distributed operating system which uses both strict and weak consistency models, with a write-invalidate and write-update based approach for consistency maintenance is reported. Furthermore a unique automatic initialisation system which allows the programmer to start the parallel execution of a group of processes with a single library call is reported. The number and location of these processes are determined by the operating system based on system load information. The DSM system proposed has a novel approach in that it provides programmers with a complete programming environment in which they are easily able to develop and run their code or indeed run existing shared memory code. A set of demanding DSM system design requirements are presented and the incentives for the placement of the DSM system with a distributed operating system and in particular in the memory management server have been reported. The new DSM system concentrated on an event-driven set of cooperating and distributed entities, and a detailed description of the events and reactions to these events that make up the operation of the DSM system is then presented. This is followed by a pseudocode form of the detailed design of the main modules and activities of the primitives used in the proposed DSM system. Quantitative results of performance tests and qualitative results showing the ease of programming and use of the RHODOS DSM system are reported. A study of five different application is given and the results of tests carried out on these applications together with a discussion of the results are given. A discussion of how RHODOS’ DSM allows programmers to write shared memory code in an easy to use and familiar environment and a comparative evaluation of RHODOS DSM with other DSM systems is presented. In particular, the ease of use and transparency of the DSM system have been demonstrated through the description of the ease with which a moderately inexperienced undergraduate programmer was able to convert, write and run applications for the testing of the DSM system. Furthermore, the description of the tests performed using physically shared memory shows that the latter is indistinguishable from distributed shared memory; this is further evidence that the DSM system is fully transparent. This study clearly demonstrates that the aim of the research has been achieved; it is possible to develop a programmer friendly and efficient DSM system fully integrated within a distributed operating system. It is clear from this research that client-server and microkernel based distributed operating system integrated DSM makes shared memory operations transparent and almost completely removes the involvement of the programmer beyond classical activities needed to deal with shared memory. The conclusion can be drawn that DSM, when implemented within a client-server and microkernel based distributed operating system, is one of the most encouraging approaches to parallel processing since it guarantees performance improvements with minimal programmer involvement.

Integrity of the circadian time-keeping system in chronic fatigue syndrome

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) is a debilitating condition in which severe, ongoing fatigue is the most prominent of a complex of somatic, psychological and neuropsychological symptoms. The aetiology of CFS remains uncertain and, to date, efforts to distinguish a clear pathophysiological profile for the disorder have been unsuccessful. Current evidence suggests that, rather than being a discrete disease entity with a single cause, CFS is a clinical condition resulting from the interaction of a number of pathophysiological factors, including acute infections, stress and psychiatric disorder. Recently, there has been some interest in the proposition that disordered circadian time-keeping may contribute to the development and/or course of the illness. The rationale for the investigation of circadian factors in CFS is based on the fact that disorders known to be associated with circadian dysregulation, such as jet lag and shiftwork related syndromes have a high degree of symptomatological overlap with CFS. Also, the presence of circadian disturbance could account, in part, for other phenomenological aspects of CFS, including the high rates of comorbid affective disturbance, and the reports of low-level immune dyregulation among sufferers. While several recent studies have produced some evidence of chronobiological dysregulation in CFS patients, much work remains before conclusions can be drawn about the presence, nature and clinical significance of circadian disturbance in CFS. This thesis describes a series of studies that were designed to systematically investigate: 1. whether CFS is associated with a state of circadian dysregulation, and 2. whether circadian dysregulation contributes significantly to the symptomatology of CFS. The first of the 5 studies reported here compared the circadian patterns of sleep-activity of CFS sufferers with those of healthy controls. Results indicated that CFS patients' sleep-activity cycles were significantly phase delayed compared to controls, and that some aspects of their circadian profiles of sleep-activity were related to some measures of sleep-disturbance and well-being. Studies 2 and 3 investigated the relationship between rhythms of sleep-wake and core temperature in CFS patients and healthy controls. The major finding from these studies was that sleep-wake and core temperature rhythms appear to be less effectively synchronised. Further evidence was collected that suggested that there was a relationship between circadian parameters and symptom measures in the CFS group. While this indicated that circadian dysregulation is linked in some way to the symptoms of CFS, assessment of the actual clinical significance of circadian disturbances required the use of a prospective methodology. The final two studies, therefore, report on a placebo-controlled trial of clinical interventions that were designed to restore circadian integrity to CFS patients, in order to see whether this would lead to a reduction in symptom number or severity. Results indicated that, although patients experienced improvements across a range of measures of symptoms and functional capacity, these were small in magnitude, of unlikely clinical significance, and no greater, in general, to improvements reported by patients who underwent placebo treatment. These results, along with those of the earlier studies, are discussed with respect to their implications regarding the presence and significance of circadian dysregulation. It is concluded that, while they provide evidence that CFS is associated with a degree of both internal and external circadian desynchrony, these findings suggest that circadian dysregulation is likely to be only a peripheral, contributor to the processes that generate and maintain the symptom complex. These findings are discussed with respect to how they contribute to our overall understanding of this multi-dimensional condition, and the implications they have for the continuing effort to investigate the causes and treatment of CFS.

Experiments toward a practical implementation of an intelligent kanban system

This paper presents laboratory experiments to test a bottom up approach to production control and supply chain management. Built upon the successful traditional kanban (Card) system, the new intelligent system associates a kanban agent to each physical kanban. Instead of relying on demand forecast and planning, kanban agents reason about their own movements to adapt to changing demands. After previous simulations results of the intelligent system showed significant performance improvements over the traditional system, we further use the Auto-ID Laboratory at Cambridge University to test the feasibility of the idea in a realistic manufacturing environment. The results from the experiments demonstrated the superiority on several performance measures of the intelligent system compared to the traditional system used as a benchmark. Moreover, the implementation of the experiments exposed several real world constraints not shown in the simulation study and practical solutions were adopted to address these.

Towards a more holistic approach to quality improvements in aluminium die casting

This work evaluates the feasibility of using a holistic approach, based on dynamical system theory,
to reduce porosity defects in high pressure aluminum die casting. Quality improvements, from a
dynamical system perspective mean the ability to move the die casting process out of its natural
equilibrium to a more beneficial state and the ability to maintain this new process state. This more beneficial state may be achieved in several ways. One way is to increase the amount of forcing to overcome natural process resistance. This forcing approach is represented by typical continuous intervention policy, with modifications in die/part design and/or process parameters. An alternative approach is to reduce the amount of natural process resistance, in particular the amount of process disturbance, allowing the process to move out of its natural equilibrium with much less forcing. This alternative uses the self-regulating ability of dynamical systems thus decreasing the amount of human intervention required. In this respect, the influence of vacuum on time on chattering at the first stage of the casting shot was identified as a good process candidate for testing using dynamical system theory. A significant reduction in porosity defects was achieved, which also set the process on a path of slow but consistent self-improvement.

MVGL analyser for multi-classifier based spam filtering system

In the last decade, the rapid growth of the Internet and email, there has been a dramatic growth in spam. Spam is commonly defined as unsolicited email messages and protecting email from the infiltration of spam is an important research issue. Classifications algorithms have been successfully used to filter spam, but with a certain amount of false positive trade-offs, which is unacceptable to users sometimes. This paper presents an approach to overcome the burden of GL (grey list) analyzer as further refinements to our multi-classifier based classification model (Islam, M. and W. Zhou 2007). In this approach, we introduce a ldquomajority voting grey list (MVGL)rdquo analyzing technique which will analyze the generated GL emails by using the majority voting (MV) algorithm. We have presented two different variations of the MV system, one is simple MV (SMV) and other is the ranked MV (RMV). Our empirical evidence proofs the improvements of this approach compared to the existing GL analyzer of multi-classifier based spam filtering process.

A particle swarm based hybrid system for imbalances medical data sampling

Background
Medical and biological data are commonly with small sample size, missing values, and most importantly, imbalanced class distribution. In this study we propose a particle swarm based hybrid system for remedying the class imbalance problem in medical and biological data mining. This hybrid system combines the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm with multiple classifiers and evaluation metrics for evaluation fusion. Samples from the majority class are ranked using multiple objectives according to their merit in compensating the class imbalance, and then combined with the minority class to form a balanced dataset.

Results
One important finding of this study is that different classifiers and metrics often provide different evaluation results. Nevertheless, the proposed hybrid system demonstrates consistent improvements over several alternative methods with three different metrics. The sampling results also demonstrate good generalization on different types of classification algorithms, indicating the advantage of information fusion applied in the hybrid system.

Conclusion
The experimental results demonstrate that unlike many currently available methods which often perform unevenly with different datasets the proposed hybrid system has a better generalization property which alleviates the method-data dependency problem. From the biological perspective, the system provides indication for further investigation of the highly ranked samples, which may result in the discovery of new conditions or disease subtypes.