Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Variation of System Performance with Design and Climate for Combisystems in Sweden

In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.

The actual status of the development of a Danish/Swedish system concept of a solar combisystem

At the beginning of 2003 the four year long research project REBUS on education, research, development and demonstration of competitive solar combisystems was launched. Research groups in Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Latvia are working together with partners from industry on innovative solutions for solar heating in the Nordic countries. Existing system concepts have been analyzed and based on the results new system designs have been developed. The proposed solutions have to fulfill country specific technical, sociological and cost requirements. Due to the similar demands on the systems in Denmark and Sweden it has been decided to develop a common system concept for both countries, which increases the market potential for the manufacturer. The focus of the development is on systems for the large number of rather well insulated existing single family houses. In close collaboration with the industrial partners a system concept has been developed that is characterized by its high compactness and flexibility. It allows the use of different types of boilers, heating distribution systems and a variable store and collector size. Two prototypes have been built, one for the Danish market with a gas boiler, and one for the Swedish market with a pellet boiler as auxiliary heater. After intensive testing and eventual further improvements at least two systems will be installed and monitored in demonstration houses. The systems have been modeled in TRNSYS and the simulation results will be used to further improve the system and evaluate the system performance.

Improvements and alternatives to intellectual property: a survey

Uma parcela importante do crescimento econômico é devida a inovações. Esta dissertação revisa a literatura recente em propriedade intelectual. Esta revisão discute os seguintes artigos: Kremer (1998), Boldrin e Levine (2001), Kremer (2001), Shavell e Ypersele (2001), Lerner (2002) e DiMasi, Hansen e Grabowski (2003). Estes contém tanto artigos empíricos quanto teóricos. Na primeira categoria está um artigo sobre efeitos na inovação de mudanças na força das patentes e outro sobre custo de desenvolver novos medicamentos. Os estudos teóricos propõem melhorias e alternativas ao sistema de patentes, por exemplo, recompensas opcionais, compras de patentes, eliminação de patentes em alguns setores e compromisso de compra prévio.

A QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR POSITIONING WITH GNSS TECHNOLOGY

This paper presents a proposal for a Quality Management System for a generic GNSS Surveying Company as an alternative for management and service quality improvements. As a result of the increased demand for GNSS measurements, a large number of new or restructured companies were established to operate in that market. Considering that GNSS surveying is a new process, some changes must be performed in order to accommodate the old surveying techniques and the old fashioned management to the new reality. This requires a new management model that must be based on a well-described procedure sequence aiming at the Total Management Quality for the company. The proposed Quality Management System was based on the requirements of the Quality System ISO 9000:2000, applied to the whole company, focusing on the productive process of GNSS surveying work.

Transmission system expansion planning by an extended genetic algorithm

The paper presents an extended genetic algorithm for solving the optimal transmission network expansion planning problem. Two main improvements have been introduced in the genetic algorithm: (a) initial population obtained by conventional optimisation based methods; (b) mutation approach inspired in the simulated annealing technique, the proposed method is general in the sense that it does not assume any particular property of the problem being solved, such as linearity or convexity. Excellent performance is reported in the test results section of the paper for a difficult large-scale real-life problem: a substantial reduction in investment costs has been obtained with regard to previous solutions obtained via conventional optimisation methods and simulated annealing algorithms; statistical comparison procedures have been employed in benchmarking different versions of the genetic algorithm and simulated annealing methods.

GPS ambiguity resolution and validation under multipath effects: Improvements using wavelets

Integer carrier phase ambiguity resolution is the key to rapid and high-precision global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning and navigation. As important as the integer ambiguity estimation, it is the validation of the solution, because, even when one uses an optimal, or close to optimal, integer ambiguity estimator, unacceptable integer solution can still be obtained. This can happen, for example, when the data are degraded by multipath effects, which affect the real-valued float ambiguity solution, conducting to an incorrect integer (fixed) ambiguity solution. Thus, it is important to use a statistic test that has a correct theoretical and probabilistic base, which has became possible by using the Ratio Test Integer Aperture (RTIA) estimator. The properties and underlying concept of this statistic test are shortly described. An experiment was performed using data with and without multipath. Reflector objects were placed surrounding the receiver antenna aiming to cause multipath. A method based on multiresolution analysis by wavelet transform is used to reduce the multipath of the GPS double difference (DDs) observations. So, the objective of this paper is to compare the ambiguity resolution and validation using data from these two situations: data with multipath and with multipath reduced by wavelets. Additionally, the accuracy of the estimated coordinates is also assessed by comparing with the ground truth coordinates, which were estimated using data without multipath effects. The success and fail probabilities of the RTIA were, in general, coherent and showed the efficiency and the reliability of this statistic test. After multipath mitigation, ambiguity resolution becomes more reliable and the coordinates more precise. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.

On the Performance of a Two-Stage Vibration Isolation System Which has Geometrically Nonlinear Stiffness

Linear single-stage vibration isolation systems have a limitation on their performance, which can be overcome passively by using linear two-stage isolations systems. It has been demonstrated by several researchers that linear single-stage isolation systems can be improved upon by using nonlinear stiffness elements, especially for low-frequency vibrations. In this paper, an investigation is conducted into whether the same improvements can be made to a linear two-stage isolation system using the same methodology for both force and base excitation. The benefits of incorporating geometric stiffness nonlinearity in both upper and lower stages are studied. It is found that there are beneficial effects of using nonlinearity in the stiffness in both stages for both types of excitation. Further, it is found that this nonlinearity causes the transmissibility at the lower resonance frequency to bend to the right, but the transmissibility at the higher resonance frequency is not affected in the same way. Generally, it is found that a nonlinear two-stage system has superior isolation performance compared to that of a linear two-stage isolator.

Multiphase feeding program for broilers can replace traditional system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cardiometabolic risk reduction through lifestyle intervention programs in the Brazilian public health system

Public health strategies to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality should focus on global cardiometabolic risk reduction. The efficacy of lifestyle changes to prevent type 2 diabetes have been demonstrated, but low-cost interventions to reduce cardiometabolic risk in Latin-America have been rarely reported. Our group developed 2 programs to promote health of high-risk individuals attending a primary care center in Brazil. This study compared the effects of two 9-month lifestyle interventions, one based on medical consultations (traditional) and another with 13 multi-professional group sessions in addition to the medical consultations (intensive) on cardiometabolic parameters. Adults were eligible if they had pre-diabetes (according to the American Diabetes Association) and/or metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation criteria for Latin-America). Data were expressed as means and standard deviations or percentages and compared between groups or testing visits. A p-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: 180 individuals agreed to participate (35.0% men, mean age 54.7 ± 12.3 years, 86.1% overweight or obese). 83 were allocated to the traditional and 97 to the intensive program. Both interventions reduced body mass index, waist circumference and tumor necrosis factor-α. Only intensive program reduced 2-hour plasma glucose and blood pressure and increased adiponectin values, but HDL-cholesterol increased only in the traditional. Also, responses to programs were better in intensive compared to traditional program in terms of blood pressure and adiponectin improvements. No new case of diabetes in intensive but 3 cases and one myocardial infarction in traditional program were detected. Both programs induced metabolic improvement in the short-term, but if better results in the intensive are due to higher awareness about risk and self-motivation deserves further investigation. In conclusion, these low-cost interventions are able to minimize cardiometabolic risk factors involved in the progression to type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease.

Antipodal random sequences with prescribed second-order statistics: application to Compressive Sensing and UWB system based on DS-CDMA

It is usual to hear a strange short sentence: «Random is better than...». Why is randomness a good solution to a certain engineering problem? There are many possible answers, and all of them are related to the considered topic. In this thesis I will discuss about two crucial topics that take advantage by randomizing some waveforms involved in signals manipulations. In particular, advantages are guaranteed by shaping the second order statistic of antipodal sequences involved in an intermediate signal processing stages. The first topic is in the area of analog-to-digital conversion, and it is named Compressive Sensing (CS). CS is a novel paradigm in signal processing that tries to merge signal acquisition and compression at the same time. Consequently it allows to direct acquire a signal in a compressed form. In this thesis, after an ample description of the CS methodology and its related architectures, I will present a new approach that tries to achieve high compression by design the second order statistics of a set of additional waveforms involved in the signal acquisition/compression stage. The second topic addressed in this thesis is in the area of communication system, in particular I focused the attention on ultra-wideband (UWB) systems. An option to produce and decode UWB signals is direct-sequence spreading with multiple access based on code division (DS-CDMA). Focusing on this methodology, I will address the coexistence of a DS-CDMA system with a narrowband interferer. To do so, I minimize the joint effect of both multiple access (MAI) and narrowband (NBI) interference on a simple matched filter receiver. I will show that, when spreading sequence statistical properties are suitably designed, performance improvements are possible with respect to a system exploiting chaos-based sequences minimizing MAI only.

Birth, Development and Progressive Institutionalization of the Ombudsman in the Russian Legal and Political System

One of the current trends in governance and legal development in Russia is aimed at establishing a modern, efficient and internationally harmonised system of safeguards of human rights and civil liberties. A fairly recent addition to this system has been the institution of ombudsman as a public authority specialised in promoting and protecting human rights and civil liberties. The introduction of this institution as well as its formalisation at the constitutional and legislative levels has been increasingly relevant and important, as it raises the dealings between the state and the individual to a new level. As an independent public institution resolving conflicts between citizens and government authorities, the ombudsman makes steps, within the scope of his jurisdiction, to restitute individual rights, and helps to enhance the reputation of government. The present work describes and assesses the birth, development and institutionalization process of the Ombudsman Office in the Russian Federation, at federal and regional levels, with a particular emphasis on the role of international references and cooperation for institution building. Ombudsmen have done a magnificent job in demonstrating value with the resolution of individual and systemic complaints; subsequent improvements to government; and economic savings by mitigating litigation costs.