Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

A Fuzzy Decision Strategy for Topic Identification and Dynamic Selection of Language Models

International audience

Development of Physics-based Models and Design Optimization of Power Electronic Conversion Systems

The main objective for physics based modeling of the power converter components is to design the whole converter with respect to physical and operational constraints. Therefore, all the elements and components of the energy conversion system are modeled numerically and combined together to achieve the whole system behavioral model. Previously proposed high frequency (HF) models of power converters are based on circuit models that are only related to the parasitic inner parameters of the power devices and the connections between the components. This dissertation aims to obtain appropriate physics-based models for power conversion systems, which not only can represent the steady state behavior of the components, but also can predict their high frequency characteristics. The developed physics-based model would represent the physical device with a high level of accuracy in predicting its operating condition. The proposed physics-based model enables us to accurately develop components such as; effective EMI filters, switching algorithms and circuit topologies [7]. One of the applications of the developed modeling technique is design of new sets of topologies for high-frequency, high efficiency converters for variable speed drives. The main advantage of the modeling method, presented in this dissertation, is the practical design of an inverter for high power applications with the ability to overcome the blocking voltage limitations of available power semiconductor devices. Another advantage is selection of the best matching topology with inherent reduction of switching losses which can be utilized to improve the overall efficiency. The physics-based modeling approach, in this dissertation, makes it possible to design any power electronic conversion system to meet electromagnetic standards and design constraints. This includes physical characteristics such as; decreasing the size and weight of the package, optimized interactions with the neighboring components and higher power density. In addition, the electromagnetic behaviors and signatures can be evaluated including the study of conducted and radiated EMI interactions in addition to the design of attenuation measures and enclosures.

Using performance measurement models for benefit realization with enterprise systems: The Queensland Government approach (Case Study)

A range of influences, technical and organizational, has encouraged the wide spread adaption of Enterprise Systems (ES). Nevertheless, there is a growing consensus that Enterprise Systems have in the many cases failed to provide the expected benefits to organizations. This paper presents ongoing research, which analyzes the benefits realization approach of the Queensland Government. This approach applies a modified Balance Scorecard. First, history and background of Queensland Government’s Enterprise Systems initiative is introduced. Second, the most common reasons for ES under performance are related. Third, relevant performance measurement models and the Balanced Scorecard in particular are discussed. Finally, the Queensland Government initiative is evaluated in light of this overview of current work in the area. In the current and future work, the authors aim to use their active involvement in Queensland Government’s benefits realization initiative for an Action Research based project investigating the appropriateness of the Balanced Scorecard for the purposes of Enterprise Systems benefits realization.