Bayesian mixtures for modelling complex medical data : a case study in Parkinson’s disease

Mixture models are a flexible tool for unsupervised clustering that have found popularity in a vast array of research areas. In studies of medicine, the use of mixtures holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of patient responses through the identification of clinically meaningful clusters that, given the complexity of many data sources, may otherwise by intangible. Furthermore, when developed in the Bayesian framework, mixture models provide a natural means for capturing and propagating uncertainty in different aspects of a clustering solution, arguably resulting in richer analyses of the population under study. This thesis aims to investigate the use of Bayesian mixture models in analysing varied and detailed sources of patient information collected in the study of complex disease. The first aim of this thesis is to showcase the flexibility of mixture models in modelling markedly different types of data. In particular, we examine three common variants on the mixture model, namely, finite mixtures, Dirichlet Process mixtures and hidden Markov models. Beyond the development and application of these models to different sources of data, this thesis also focuses on modelling different aspects relating to uncertainty in clustering. Examples of clustering uncertainty considered are uncertainty in a patient’s true cluster membership and accounting for uncertainty in the true number of clusters present. Finally, this thesis aims to address and propose solutions to the task of comparing clustering solutions, whether this be comparing patients or observations assigned to different subgroups or comparing clustering solutions over multiple datasets. To address these aims, we consider a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a complex and commonly diagnosed neurodegenerative disorder. In particular, two commonly collected sources of patient information are considered. The first source of data are on symptoms associated with PD, recorded using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) and constitutes the first half of this thesis. The second half of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of microelectrode recordings collected during Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS), a popular palliative treatment for advanced PD. Analysis of this second source of data centers on the problems of unsupervised detection and sorting of action potentials or "spikes" in recordings of multiple cell activity, providing valuable information on real time neural activity in the brain.

'Online' geriatric assessment procedure for older adults referred for geriatric assessment during an acute care episode for consideration of reliability of triage decisions

Background Comprehensive geriatric assessment has been shown to improve patient outcomes, but the geriatricians who deliver it are in short-supply. A web-based method of comprehensive geriatric assessment has been developed with the potential to improve access to specialist geriatric expertise. The current study aims to test the reliability and safety of comprehensive geriatric assessment performed “online” in making geriatric triage decisions. It will also explore the accuracy of the procedure in identifying common geriatric syndromes, and its cost relative to conventional “live” consultations. Methods/Design The study population will consist of 270 acutely hospitalized patients referred for geriatric consultation at three sites. Paired assessments (live and online) will be conducted by independent, blinded geriatricians and the level of agreement examined. This will be compared with the level of agreement between two independent, blinded geriatricians each consulting with the patient in person (i.e. “live”). Agreement between the triage decision from live-live assessments and between the triage decision from live-online assessments will be calculated using kappa statistics. Agreement between the online and live detection of common geriatric syndromes will also be assessed using kappa statistics. Resource use data will be collected for online and live-live assessments to allow comparison between the two procedures. Discussion If the online approach is found to be less precise than live assessment, further analysis will seek to identify patient subgroups where disagreement is more likely. This may enable a protocol to be developed that avoids unsafe clinical decisions at a distance. Trial registration Trial registration number: ACTRN12611000936921

Introduction

In this volume we compile and comment on a collection of some of the most important works on nascent entrepreneurship that have appeared in the last two decades. We do not go further back than that because up until1992 hardly any systematic research on the pre-operational stage of business creation was undertaken. In that year, the terms 'nascent entrepreneur' and 'nascent venture' appear for the first time in the research literature (Reynolds and Miller, Chapter l, 1992; Reynolds and White, 1992). This signals the emergence of a new research paradigm designed to study• business creation processes empirically at very early stages, before an operational firm has come into existence. The most central feature of this type of research is that it identifies a statistically representative sample of nascent entrepreneurs (NEs)- people engaged in ongoing but not yet operational business start-ups- via screening interviews with a very large random sample of adults. The overarching research questions pursued in this emerging research tradition are the following: 1. What proportion of individuals (in various population subgroups) are trying to start a new business at any given time? 2. What led them to engage in the creation of a new business? 3. What characteristics and behaviors associated with the founder(s), the venture, the environment and the process are associated with persistence, progress and success in trying to start a new business?

Dirichlet process mixture models for unsupervised clustering of symptoms in Parkinson's disease

In this paper, the goal of identifying disease subgroups based on differences in observed symptom profile is considered. Commonly referred to as phenotype identification, solutions to this task often involve the application of unsupervised clustering techniques. In this paper, we investigate the application of a Dirichlet Process mixture (DPM) model for this task. This model is defined by the placement of the Dirichlet Process (DP) on the unknown components of a mixture model, allowing for the expression of uncertainty about the partitioning of observed data into homogeneous subgroups. To exemplify this approach, an application to phenotype identification in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is considered, with symptom profiles collected using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Clustering, Dirichlet Process mixture, Parkinson’s disease, UPDRS.

A qualitative study of the determinants of dieting and non-dieting approaches in overweight/obese Australian adults.

Background Dieting has historically been the main behavioural treatment paradigm for overweight/obesity, although a non-dieting paradigm has more recently emerged based on the criticisms of the original dieting approach. There is a dearth of research contrasting why these approaches are adopted. To address this, we conducted a qualitative investigation into the determinants of dieting and non-dieting approaches based on the perspectives and experiences of overweight/obese Australian adults. Methods Grounded theory was used inductively to generate a model of themes contrasting the determinants of dieting and non-dieting approaches based on the perspectives of 21 overweight/obese adults. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews to elicit in-depth individual experiences and perspectives. Results Several categories emerged which distinguished between the adoption of a dieting or non-dieting approach. These categories included the focus of each approach (weight/image or lifestyle/health behaviours); internal or external attributions about dieting failure; attitudes towards established diets, and personal autonomy. Personal autonomy was also influenced by another category; the perceived knowledge and self-efficacy about each approach, with adults more likely to choose an approach they knew more about and were confident in implementing. The time perspective of change (short or long-term) and the perceived identity of the person (fat/dieter or healthy person) also emerged as determinants of dieting or non-dieting approaches respectively. Conclusions The model of determinants elicited from this study assists in understanding why dieting and non-dieting approaches are adopted, from the perspectives and experiences of overweight/obese adults. Understanding this decision-making process can assist clinicians and public health researchers to design and tailor dieting and non-dieting interventions to population subgroups that have preferences and characteristics suitable for each approach.

The relationship between CFH and ARMS2 genotypes and neuroretinal function in persons without age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To determine whether neuroretinal function differs in healthy persons with and without common risk gene variants for age- related macular degeneration (AMD) and no ophthalmoscopic signs of AMD, and to compare those findings in persons with manifest early AMD. Methods and Participants: Neuroretinal function was assessed with the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) (VERIS, Redwood City, CA,) in 32 participants (22 healthy persons with no clinical signs of AMD and 10 early AMD patients). The 22 healthy participants with no AMD were risk genotypes for either the CFH (rs380390) and/or ARMS2 (rs10490920). We used a slow flash mfERG paradigm (3 inserted frames) and a 103 hexagon stimulus array. Recordings were made with DTL electrodes; fixation and eye movements were monitored online. Trough N1 to peak P1 (N1P1) response densities and P1-implicit times (IT) were analysed in 5 concentric rings. Results: N1P1 response densities (mean ± SD) for concentric rings 1-3 were on average significantly higher in at-risk genotypes (ring 1: 17.97 nV/deg2 ± 1.9, ring 2: 11.7 nV/deg2 ±1.3, ring 3: 8.7 nV/deg2 ± 0.7) compared to those without risk (ring 1: 13.7 nV/deg2 ± 1.9, ring 2: 9.2 nV/deg2 ±0.8, ring 3: 7.3 nV/deg2 ± 1.1) and compared to persons with early AMD (ring 1: 15.3 nV/deg2 ± 4.8, ring 2: 9.1 nV/deg2 ±2.3, ring 3 nV/deg2: 7.3± 1.3) (p<0.5). The group implicit times, P1-ITs for ring 1 were on average delayed in the early AMD patients (36.4 ms ± 1.0) compared to healthy participants with (35.1 ms ± 1.1) or without risk genotypes (34.8 ms ±1.3), although these differences were not significant. Conclusion: Neuroretinal function in persons with normal fundi can be differentiated into subgroups based on their genetics. Increased neuroretinal activity in persons who carry AMD risk genotypes may be due to genetically determined subclinical inflammatory and/or histological changes in the retina. Assessment of neuroretinal function in healthy persons genetically susceptible to AMD may be a useful early biomarker before there is clinical manifestation of AMD.

Sunlight and other determinants of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in black and white participants in a nationwide U.S. study

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), a marker for vitamin D status, is associated with bone health and possibly cancers and other diseases; yet, the determinants of 25(OH)D status, particularly ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, are poorly understood. Determinants of 25(OH)D were analyzed in a subcohort of 1,500 participants of the US Radiologic Technologists (USRT) Study that included whites (n 842), blacks (n 646), and people of other races/ethnicities (n 12). Participants were recruited monthly (20082009) across age, sex, race, and ambient UVR level groups. Questionnaires addressing UVR and other exposures were generally completed within 9 days of blood collection. The relation between potential determinants and 25(OH)D levels was examined through regression analysis in a random two-thirds sample and validated in the remaining one third. In the regression model for the full study population, age, race, body mass index, some seasons, hours outdoors being physically active, and vitamin D supplement use were associated with 25(OH)D levels. In whites, generally, the same factors were explanatory. In blacks, only age and vitamin D supplement use predicted 25(OH)D concentrations. In the full population, determinants accounted for 25 of circulating 25(OH)D variability, with similar correlations for subgroups. Despite detailed data on UVR and other factors near the time of blood collection, the ability to explain 25(OH)D was modest.

Self-reported likelihood of speeding : the effects of attitudes, personality, and perceived legitimacy of enforcement

The positive relationship between speed and crash risk and severity is robust and well-established. While excessive speeding is typically regarded by the public as a common contributing factor in road crashes, speeding remains a common traffic infringement and an arguably socially acceptable behaviour, particularly at low levels over the speed limit. This suggests that other factors potentially contribute to this disparity between crash perceptions and actual behaviours. Previous work has described associations between perceptions of the legitimacy of speed enforcement, attitudes, and how they relate to the likelihood of speeding. This study sought to more closely examine the nature of the relationships between these variables. In total, 293 Queensland drivers participated in a study that examined how demographics, personality variables, attitudes, and perceptions of the legitimacy of enforcement contributed to drivers’ self-reported likelihood of speeding. Results suggested that positive attitudes towards speeding had the greatest impact on likelihood of speeding behaviours. Being younger and higher levels of the personality trait of extraversion were also associated with greater levels of self-reported likelihood of speeding. Attitudes were found to mediate the relationship between perceived legitimacy of speed enforcement and self-reported likelihood of speeding. A subgroup analysis of participants with positive and negative attitudes towards speeding revealed that a differential set of variables were predictive of self-reported likelihood of speeding for the two subgroups. This highlights the potential importance of attitudes in understanding the influence of perceptions of legitimacy of speed enforcement on speeding behaviour, and the need for targeted rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach to changing attitudes and ultimately behaviour. The findings of the current study help to further understand why some drivers continue to speed.

Association analysis of a highly polymorphic CAG Repeat in the human potassium channel gene KCNN3 and migraine susceptibility

Background Migraine is a polygenic multifactorial disease, possessing environmental and genetic causative factors with multiple involved genes. Mutations in various ion channel genes are responsible for a number of neurological disorders. KCNN3 is a neuronal small conductance calcium-activated potassium channel gene that contains two polyglutamine tracts, encoded by polymorphic CAG repeats in the gene. This gene plays a critical role in determining the firing pattern of neurons and acts to regulate intracellular calcium channels. Methods The present association study tested whether length variations in the second (more 3') polymorphic CAG repeat in exon 1 of the KCNN3 gene, are involved in susceptibility to migraine with and without aura (MA and MO). In total 423 DNA samples from unrelated individuals, of which 202 consisted of migraine patients and 221 non-migraine controls, were genotyped and analysed using a fluorescence labelled primer set on an ABI310 Genetic Analyzer. Allele frequencies were calculated from observed genotype counts for the KCNN3 polymorphism. Analysis was performed using standard contingency table analysis, incorporating the chi-squared test of independence and CLUMP analysis. Results Overall, there was no convincing evidence that KCNN3 CAG lengths differ between Caucasian migraineurs and controls, with no significant difference in the allelic length distribution of CAG repeats between the population groups (P = 0.090). Also the MA and MO subtypes did not differ significantly between control allelic distributions (P > 0.05). The prevalence of the long CAG repeat (>19 repeats) did not reach statistical significance in migraineurs (P = 0.15), nor was there a significant difference between the MA and MO subgroups observed compared to controls (P = 0.46 and P = 0.09, respectively), or between MA vs MO (P = 0.40). Conclusion This association study provides no evidence that length variations of the second polyglutamine array in the N-terminus of the KCNN3 channel exert an effect in the pathogenesis of migraine.

Investigation of the low-density lipoprotein receptor gene and cholesterol as a risk factor for migraine

The Low-Density Lipoprotein Receptor (LDLR) gene is a cell surface receptor that plays an important role in cholesterol homeostasis. We investigated the (TA)n polymorphism in exon 18 of the LDLR gene on chromosome 19p13.2 performing an association analysis in 244 typical migraine-affected patients, 151 suffering from migraine with aura (MA), 96 with migraine without aura (MO) and 244 unaffected controls. The populations consisted of Caucasians only, and controls were age- and sex-matched. The results showed no significant difference between groups for allele frequency distributions of the (TA)n polymorphism even after separation of the migraine-affected individuals into subgroups of MA and MO affected patients. This is in contradiction to Mochi et al. who found a positive association of this variant with MO. Our study discusses possible differences between the two studies and extends this research by investigating circulating cholesterol levels in a migraine-affected population.

Isoenergetic replacement of dietary saturated with monounsaturated fat via macadamia nuts enhances endothelial function in overweight subjects

Background & aims: - Excess adiposity (overweight) is one of numerous risk factors for cardiometabolic disease. Most risk reduction strategies for overweight rely on weight loss through dietary energy restriction. However, since the evidence base for long-term successful weight loss interventions is scant, it is important to identify strategies for risk reduction independent of weight loss. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of isoenergetic substitution of dietary saturated fat (SFA) with monounsaturated fat (MUFA) via macadamia nuts on coronary risk compared to usual diet in overweight adults. Methods: - A randomised controlled trial design, maintaining usual energy intake, but manipulating dietary lipid profile in a group of 64 (54 female, 10 male) overweight (BMI > 25), otherwise healthy, subjects. For the intervention group, energy intakes of usual (baseline) diets were calculated from multiple 3 day diet diaries, and SFA was replaced with MUFA (target: 50%E from fat as MUFA) by altering dietary SFA sources and adding macadamia nuts to the diet. Both control and intervention groups received advice on national guidelines for physical activity and adhered to the same protocol for diet diary record keeping and trial consultations. Anthropometric and clinical measures were taken at baseline and at 10 weeks. Results: A significant increase in brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (p < 0.05) was seen in the monounsaturated diet group at week 10 compared to baseline. This corresponded to significant decreases in waist circumference, total cholesterol (p < 0.05), plasma leptin and ICAM-1 (p < 0.01). Conclusions: - In patient subgroups where adherence to dietary energy-reduction is poor, isoenergetic interventions may improve endothelial function and other coronary risk factors without changes in body weight. This trial was registered with the Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12607000106437).

First-cycle rash and survival in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer receiving cetuximab in combination with first-line chemotherapy : a subgroup analysis of data from the FLEX phase 3 study

Background: The randomised phase 3 First-Line Erbitux in Lung Cancer (FLEX) study showed that the addition of cetuximab to cisplatin and vinorelbine significantly improved overall survival compared with chemotherapy alone in the first-line treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The main cetuximab-related side-effect was acne-like rash. Here, we assessed the association of this acne-like rash with clinical benefit. Methods: We did a subgroup analysis of patients in the FLEX study, which enrolled patients with advanced NSCLC whose tumours expressed epidermal growth factor receptor. Our landmark analysis assessed if the development of acne-like rash in the first 21 days of treatment (first-cycle rash) was associated with clinical outcome, on the basis of patients in the intention-to-treat population alive on day 21. The FLEX study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00148798. Findings: 518 patients in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group-290 of whom had first-cycle rash-and 540 patients in the chemotherapy alone group were alive on day 21. Patients in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group with first-cycle rash had significantly prolonged overall survival compared with patients in the same treatment group without first-cycle rash (median 15·0 months [95% CI 12·8-16·4] vs 8·8 months [7·6-11·1]; hazard ratio [HR] 0·631 [0·515-0·774]; p<0·0001). Corresponding significant associations were also noted for progression-free survival (median 5·4 months [5·2-5·7] vs 4·3 months [4·1-5·3]; HR 0·741 [0·607-0·905]; p=0·0031) and response (rate 44·8% [39·0-50·8] vs 32·0% [26·0-38·5]; odds ratio 1·703 [1·186-2·448]; p=0·0039). Overall survival for patients without first-cycle rash was similar to that of patients that received chemotherapy alone (median 8·8 months [7·6-11·1] vs 10·3 months [9·6-11·3]; HR 1·085 [0·910-1·293]; p=0·36). The significant overall survival benefit for patients with first-cycle rash versus without was seen in all histology subgroups: adenocarcinoma (median 16·9 months, [14·1-20·6] vs 9·3 months [7·7-13·2]; HR 0·614 [0·453-0·832]; p=0·0015), squamous-cell carcinoma (median 13·2 months [10·6-16·0] vs 8·1 months [6·7-12·6]; HR 0·659 [0·472-0·921]; p=0·014), and carcinomas of other histology (median 12·6 months [9·2-16·4] vs 6·9 months [5·2-11·0]; HR 0·616 [0·392-0·966]; p=0·033). Interpretation: First-cycle rash was associated with a better outcome in patients with advanced NSCLC who received cisplatin and vinorelbine plus cetuximab as a first-line treatment. First-cycle rash might be a surrogate clinical marker that could be used to tailor cetuximab treatment for advanced NSCLC to those patients who would be most likely to derive a significant benefit. Funding: Merck KGaA. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Single-agent versus combination chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and a performance status of 2 : prognostic factors and treatment selection based on two large randomized clinical trials

Purpose: Data from two randomized phase III trials were analyzed to evaluate prognostic factors and treatment selection in the first-line management of advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients with performance status (PS) 2. Patients and Methods: Patients randomized to combination chemotherapy (carboplatin and paclitaxel) in one trial and single-agent therapy (gemcitabine or vinorelbine) in the second were included in these analyses. Both studies had identical eligibility criteria and were conducted simultaneously. Comparison of efficacy and safety was performed between the two cohorts. A regression analysis identified prognostic factors and subgroups of patients that may benefit from combination or single-agent therapy. Results: Two hundred one patients were treated with combination and 190 with single-agent therapy. Objective responses were 37 and 15%, respectively. Median time to progression was 4.6 months in the combination arm and 3.5 months in the single-agent arm (p < 0.001). Median survival imes were 8.0 and 6.6 months, and 1-year survival rates were 31 and 26%, respectively. Albumin <3.5 g, extrathoracic metastases, lactate dehydrogenase ≥200 IU, and 2 comorbid conditions predicted outcome. Patients with 0-2 risk factors had similar outcomes independent of treatment, whereas patients with 3-4 factors had a nonsignificant improvement in median survival with combination chemotherapy. Conclusion: Our results show that PS2 non-small cell lung cancer patients are a heterogeneous group who have significantly different outcomes. Patients treated with first-line combination chemotherapy had a higher response and longer time to progression, whereas overall survival did not appear significantly different. A prognostic model may be helpful in selecting PS 2 patients for either treatment strategy. © 2009 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

The role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of non-small cell lung cancer

The link between chronic immune activation and tumorigenesis is well established. Compelling evidence has accumulated that histologic assessment of infiltration patterns of different host immune response components in non-small cell lung cancer specimens helps identify different prognostic patient subgroups. This review provides an overview of recent insights gained in the understanding of the role played by chronic inflammation in lung carcinogenesis. The usefulness of quantification of different populations of lymphocytes, natural killer cells, macrophages, and mast cells within the tumor microenvironment in non-small cell lung cancer is also discussed. In particular, the importance of assessment of inflammatory cell microlocalization within both the tumor islet and surrounding stromal components is emphasized. Copyright © 2010 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

The complete nucleotide sequence of subterranean clover mottle virus

The complete nucleotide sequence of Subterranean clover mottle virus (SCMoV) genomic RNA has been determined. The SCMoV genome is 4,258 nucleotides in length. It shares most nucleotide and amino acid sequence identity with the genome of Lucerne transient streak virus (LTSV). SCMoV RNA encodes four overlapping open reading frames and has a genome organisation similar to that of Cocksfoot mottle virus (CfMV). ORF1 and ORF4 are predicted to encode single proteins. ORF2 is predicted to encode two proteins that are derived from a -1 translational frameshift between two overlapping reading frames (ORF2a and ORF2b). A search of amino acid databases did not find a significant match for ORF1 and the function of this protein remains unclear. ORF2a contains a motif typical of chymotrypsin-like serine proteases and ORF2b has motifs characteristically present in positive-stranded RNA-dependent RNA polymerases. ORF4 is likely to be expressed from a subgenomic RNA and encodes the viral coat protein. The ORF2a/ORF2b overlapping gene expression strategy used by SCMoV and CfMV is similar to that of the poleroviruses and differ from that of other published sobemoviruses. These results suggest that the sobemoviruses could now be divided into two distinct subgroups based on those that express the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase from a single, in-frame polyprotein, and those that express it via a -1 translational frameshifting mechanism.