Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

The UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency and its Potential Role in Upholding the Rule of Law

The rule of law is understood to be a core aspect in achieving a stable economy and an ordered society. Without the elements that are inherent in this principle the possibilities of anarchy, unfairness and uncertainty are amplified, which in turn can result in an economy with dramatic fluctuations. In this regard, commentators do not always agree that the rule of law is strictly adhered to in the international legal context. Therefore, this paper will explore one aspect of international regulation and consider whether the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency (1997) (‘Model Law’) and its associated Guide to Enactment and Interpretation (2013) contribute to the promotion of the key elements of the rule of law.

Modelling the manager: Representing rule-based management in farming systems simulation models

We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.

Modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective decisions during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects: A decision rule approach

Major infrastructure and construction (MIC) projects are those with significant traffic or environmental impact, of strategic and regional significance and high sensitivity. The decision making process of schemes of this type is becoming ever more complicated, especially with the increasing number of stakeholders involved and their growing tendency to defend their own varied interests. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of stakeholders may result in project failures. To avoid this necessitates a systematic participatory approach to facilitate decision-making. Though numerous decision models have been established in previous studies (e.g. ELECTRE methods, the analytic hierarchy process and analytic network process) their applicability in the decision process during stakeholder participation in contemporary MIC projects is still uncertain. To resolve this, the decision rule approach is employed for modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective project decisions. Through this, the result is obtained naturally according to the “rules” accepted by any stakeholder involved. In this sense, consensus is more likely to be achieved since the process is more convincing and the result is easier to be accepted by all concerned. Appropriate “rules”, comprehensive enough to address multiple objectives while straightforward enough to be understood by multiple stakeholders, are set for resolving conflict and facilitating consensus during the project decision process. The West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD) project is used as a demonstration case and a focus group meeting is conducted in order to confirm the validity of the model established. The results indicate that the model is objective, reliable and practical enough to cope with real world problems. Finally, a suggested future research agenda is provided.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.

Mathematical model and rule extraction for tool wear monitoring problem using nature inspired techniques

In this paper, pattern classification problem in tool wear monitoring is solved using nature inspired techniques such as Genetic Programming(GP) and Ant-Miner (AM). The main advantage of GP and AM is their ability to learn the underlying data relationships and express them in the form of mathematical equation or simple rules. The extraction of knowledge from the training data set using GP and AM are in the form of Genetic Programming Classifier Expression (GPCE) and rules respectively. The GPCE and AM extracted rules are then applied to set of data in the testing/validation set to obtain the classification accuracy. A major attraction in GP evolved GPCE and AM based classification is the possibility of obtaining an expert system like rules that can be directly applied subsequently by the user in his/her application. The performance of the data classification using GP and AM is as good as the classification accuracy obtained in the earlier study.

A cloud-based intelligent computing system for contextual exploration on personal sleep-tracking data using association rule mining

With the development of wearable and mobile computing technology, more and more people start using sleep-tracking tools to collect personal sleep data on a daily basis aiming at understanding and improving their sleep. While sleep quality is influenced by many factors in a person’s lifestyle context, such as exercise, diet and steps walked, existing tools simply visualize sleep data per se on a dashboard rather than analyse those data in combination with contextual factors. Hence many people find it difficult to make sense of their sleep data. In this paper, we present a cloud-based intelligent computing system named SleepExplorer that incorporates sleep domain knowledge and association rule mining for automated analysis on personal sleep data in light of contextual factors. Experiments show that the same contextual factors can play a distinct role in sleep of different people, and SleepExplorer could help users discover factors that are most relevant to their personal sleep.

Evaluation of the Queensland Minimum Passing Distance Road Rule

The two-year trial of the Queensland minimum passing distance (MPD) road rule began on 7 April 2014. The rule requires motor vehicles to provide cyclists a minimum lateral passing distance of one metre when overtaking cyclists in a speed zone of 60 km/h or less, and 1.5 metres when the speed limit is greater than 60 km/h. This document summarises the evaluation of the effectiveness of the new rule in terms of its: 1. practical implementation; 2. impact on road users’ attitudes and perceptions; and 3. road safety benefits. The Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) developed the evaluation framework (Haworth, Schramm, Kiata-Holland, Vallmuur, Watson & Debnath; 2014) for the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) and was later commissioned to undertake the evaluation. The evaluation included the following components: • Review of correspondence received by TMR; • Interviews and focus groups with Queensland Police Service (QPS) officers; • Road user survey; • Observational study; and • Crash, injury and infringement data analysis.

On the complexity of finding stopping set size in Tanner Graphs

The problem of determining whether a Tanner graph for a linear block code has a stopping set of a given size is shown to be NT-complete.

Hardness of approximation results for the problem of finding the stopping distance in Tanner graphs

Tanner Graph representation of linear block codes is widely used by iterative decoding algorithms for recovering data transmitted across a noisy communication channel from errors and erasures introduced by the channel. The stopping distance of a Tanner graph T for a binary linear block code C determines the number of erasures correctable using iterative decoding on the Tanner graph T when data is transmitted across a binary erasure channel using the code C. We show that the problem of finding the stopping distance of a Tanner graph is hard to approximate within any positive constant approximation ratio in polynomial time unless P = NP. It is also shown as a consequence that there can be no approximation algorithm for the problem achieving an approximation ratio of 2(log n)(1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0 unless NP subset of DTIME(n(poly(log n))).