Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.

Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.

An adaptive neighborhood search algorithm for optimizing stochastic mining complexes

Les métaheuristiques sont très utilisées dans le domaine de l'optimisation discrète. Elles permettent d’obtenir une solution de bonne qualité en un temps raisonnable, pour des problèmes qui sont de grande taille, complexes, et difficiles à résoudre. Souvent, les métaheuristiques ont beaucoup de paramètres que l’utilisateur doit ajuster manuellement pour un problème donné. L'objectif d'une métaheuristique adaptative est de permettre l'ajustement automatique de certains paramètres par la méthode, en se basant sur l’instance à résoudre. La métaheuristique adaptative, en utilisant les connaissances préalables dans la compréhension du problème, des notions de l'apprentissage machine et des domaines associés, crée une méthode plus générale et automatique pour résoudre des problèmes. L’optimisation globale des complexes miniers vise à établir les mouvements des matériaux dans les mines et les flux de traitement afin de maximiser la valeur économique du système. Souvent, en raison du grand nombre de variables entières dans le modèle, de la présence de contraintes complexes et de contraintes non-linéaires, il devient prohibitif de résoudre ces modèles en utilisant les optimiseurs disponibles dans l’industrie. Par conséquent, les métaheuristiques sont souvent utilisées pour l’optimisation de complexes miniers. Ce mémoire améliore un procédé de recuit simulé développé par Goodfellow & Dimitrakopoulos (2016) pour l’optimisation stochastique des complexes miniers stochastiques. La méthode développée par les auteurs nécessite beaucoup de paramètres pour fonctionner. Un de ceux-ci est de savoir comment la méthode de recuit simulé cherche dans le voisinage local de solutions. Ce mémoire implémente une méthode adaptative de recherche dans le voisinage pour améliorer la qualité d'une solution. Les résultats numériques montrent une augmentation jusqu'à 10% de la valeur de la fonction économique.

An adaptive neighborhood search algorithm for optimizing stochastic mining complexes

Les métaheuristiques sont très utilisées dans le domaine de l'optimisation discrète. Elles permettent d’obtenir une solution de bonne qualité en un temps raisonnable, pour des problèmes qui sont de grande taille, complexes, et difficiles à résoudre. Souvent, les métaheuristiques ont beaucoup de paramètres que l’utilisateur doit ajuster manuellement pour un problème donné. L'objectif d'une métaheuristique adaptative est de permettre l'ajustement automatique de certains paramètres par la méthode, en se basant sur l’instance à résoudre. La métaheuristique adaptative, en utilisant les connaissances préalables dans la compréhension du problème, des notions de l'apprentissage machine et des domaines associés, crée une méthode plus générale et automatique pour résoudre des problèmes. L’optimisation globale des complexes miniers vise à établir les mouvements des matériaux dans les mines et les flux de traitement afin de maximiser la valeur économique du système. Souvent, en raison du grand nombre de variables entières dans le modèle, de la présence de contraintes complexes et de contraintes non-linéaires, il devient prohibitif de résoudre ces modèles en utilisant les optimiseurs disponibles dans l’industrie. Par conséquent, les métaheuristiques sont souvent utilisées pour l’optimisation de complexes miniers. Ce mémoire améliore un procédé de recuit simulé développé par Goodfellow & Dimitrakopoulos (2016) pour l’optimisation stochastique des complexes miniers stochastiques. La méthode développée par les auteurs nécessite beaucoup de paramètres pour fonctionner. Un de ceux-ci est de savoir comment la méthode de recuit simulé cherche dans le voisinage local de solutions. Ce mémoire implémente une méthode adaptative de recherche dans le voisinage pour améliorer la qualité d'une solution. Les résultats numériques montrent une augmentation jusqu'à 10% de la valeur de la fonction économique.

Theory and optimisation of 1.3 and 1.55 μm (Al)InGaAs metamorphic quantum well lasers

The use of InGaAs metamorphic buffer layers (MBLs) to facilitate the growth of lattice-mismatched heterostructures constitutes an attractive approach to developing long-wavelength semiconductor lasers on GaAs substrates, since they offer the improved carrier and optical confinement associated with GaAs-based materials. We present a theoretical study of GaAs-based 1.3 and 1.55 μm (Al)InGaAs quantum well (QW) lasers grown on InGaAs MBLs. We demonstrate that optimised 1.3 μm metamorphic devices offer low threshold current densities and high differential gain, which compare favourably with InP-based devices. Overall, our analysis highlights and quantifies the potential of metamorphic QWs for the development of GaAs-based long-wavelength semiconductor lasers, and also provides guidelines for the design of optimised devices.

Modelling spillover effects in spatial stochastic frontier analysis

In the last two decades, authors have begun to expand classical stochastic frontier (SF) models in order to include also some spatial components. Indeed, firms tend to concentrate in clusters, taking advantage of positive agglomeration externalities due to cooperation, shared ideas and emulation, resulting in increased productivity levels. Until now scholars have introduced spatial dependence into SF models following two different paths: evaluating global and local spatial spillover effects related to the frontier or considering spatial cross-sectional correlation in the inefficiency and/or in the error term. In this thesis, we extend the current literature on spatial SF models introducing two novel specifications for panel data. First, besides considering productivity and input spillovers, we introduce the possibility to evaluate the specific spatial effects arising from each inefficiency determinant through their spatial lags aiming to capture also knowledge spillovers. Second, we develop a very comprehensive spatial SF model that includes both frontier and error-based spillovers in order to consider four different sources of spatial dependence (i.e. productivity and input spillovers related to the frontier function and behavioural and environmental correlation associated with the two error terms). Finally, we test the finite sample properties of the two proposed spatial SF models through simulations, and we provide two empirical applications to the Italian accommodation and agricultural sectors. From a practical perspective, policymakers, based on results from these models, can rely on precise, detailed and distinct insights on the spillover effects affecting the productive performance of neighbouring spatial units obtaining interesting and relevant suggestions for policy decisions.

Polyphenol Extraction Optimisation From Ceylon Gooseberry (dovyalis Hebecarpa) Pulp.

Originally from Asia, Dovyalis hebecarpa is a dark purple/red exotic berry now also produced in Brazil. However, no reports were found in the literature about phenolic extraction or characterisation of this berry. In this study we evaluate the extraction optimisation of anthocyanins and total phenolics in D. hebecarpa berries aiming at the development of a simple and mild analytical technique. Multivariate analysis was used to optimise the extraction variables (ethanol:water:acetone solvent proportions, times, and acid concentrations) at different levels. Acetone/water (20/80 v/v) gave the highest anthocyanin extraction yield, but pure water and different proportions of acetone/water or acetone/ethanol/water (with >50% of water) were also effective. Neither acid concentration nor time had a significant effect on extraction efficiency allowing to fix the recommended parameters at the lowest values tested (0.35% formic acid v/v, and 17.6 min). Under optimised conditions, extraction efficiencies were increased by 31.5% and 11% for anthocyanin and total phenolics, respectively as compared to traditional methods that use more solvent and time. Thus, the optimised methodology increased yields being less hazardous and time consuming than traditional methods. Finally, freeze-dried D. hebecarpa showed high content of target phytochemicals (319 mg/100g and 1,421 mg/100g of total anthocyanin and total phenolic content, respectively).

Pain Threshold And Sleep Quality In Women With Endometriosis.

Pain is a common complaint in women with endometriosis and can be influenced by many variables, including sleep disorders; however, no data are available on the sleep quality of women with endometriosis or on the correlation between sleep quality and pain. The 510 volunteers included in this study were divided into two groups: 257 women with a laparoscopic and histopathological diagnosis of endometriosis and 253 women with no history of endometriosis and no endometriosis-related symptoms. The volunteers answered two questionnaires: the Post-Sleep Inventory to evaluate sleep quality and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire to assess their level of physical activity. Pain was evaluated using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and women were also submitted to a physical examination, during which their pain threshold was assessed at 20 different body sites. Sleep quality was significantly poorer in women with endometriosis compared to women without the disease. The pain threshold was significantly lower in the greater trochanter and abdomen in women with endometriosis when compared to women without the disease; however, there was no difference in VAS pain score between the groups. The higher the VAS pain score, the lower the Post-Sleep Inventory score. Additionally, there was a significant positive correlation between the pain threshold at some body sites and sleep quality. Sleep quality was poorer and the pain threshold at certain body sites was lower in the group of women with endometriosis.

Interaction Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Dynamic Nonlinear Model.

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

Full threshold vs. Swedish interactive threshold algorithm (SITA) em pacientes glaucomatosos submetidos à perimetria computadorizada pela primeira vez

PURPOSE: To compare the Full Threshold (FT) and SITA Standard (SS) strategies in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. METHODS: Thirty-one glaucomatous patients who had never undergone perimetry underwent automated perimetry (Humphrey, program 30-2) with both FT and SS on the same day, with an interval of at least 15 minutes. The order of the examination was randomized, and only one eye per patient was analyzed. Three analyses were performed: a) all the examinations, regardless of the order of application; b) only the first examinations; c) only the second examinations. In order to calculate the sensitivity of both strategies, the following criteria were used to define abnormality: glaucoma hemifield test (GHT) outside normal limits, pattern standard deviation (PSD) <5%, or a cluster of 3 adjacent points with p<5% at the pattern deviation probability plot. RESULTS: When the results of all examinations were analyzed regardless of the order in which they were performed, the number of depressed points with p<0.5% in the pattern deviation probability map was significantly greater with SS (p=0.037), and the sensitivities were 87.1% for SS and 77.4% for FT (p=0.506). When only the first examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, but the sensitivity of SS (100%) was significantly greater than that obtained with FT (70.6%) (p=0.048). When only the second examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, and the sensitivities of SS (76.5%) and FT (85.7%) (p=0.664). CONCLUSION: SS may have a higher sensitivity than FT in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. However, this difference tends to disappear in subsequent examinations.

Hegemonia e contra-hegemonia na construção de políticas de esporte e lazer : a experiência do Consórcio Brasília = Hegemony and counter-hegemony in the process of sport and leisure policy-making : the experience of the Consortium Brasilia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Operant measurement of auditory threshold in prelingually deaf users of cochlear implants: II

Two experiments evaluated an operant procedure for establishing stimulus control using auditory and electrical stimuli as a baseline for measuring the electrical current threshold of electrodes implanted in the cochlea. Twenty-one prelingually deaf children, users of cochlear implants, learned a Go/No Go auditory discrimination task (i.e., pressing a button in the presence of the stimulus but not in its absence). When the simple discrimination baseline became stable, the electrical current was manipulated in descending and ascending series according to an adapted staircase method. Thresholds were determined for three electrodes, one in each location in the cochlea (basal, medial, and apical). Stimulus control was maintained within a certain range of decreasing electrical current but was eventually disrupted. Increasing the current recovered stimulus control, thus allowing the determination of a range of electrical currents that could be defined as the threshold. The present study demonstrated the feasibility of the operant procedure combined with a psychophysical method for threshold assessment, thus contributing to the routine fitting and maintenance of cochlear implants within the limitations of a hospital setting.

Reaction-diffusion stochastic lattice model for a predator-prey system

We have the purpose of analyzing the effect of explicit diffusion processes in a predator-prey stochastic lattice model. More precisely we wish to investigate the possible effects due to diffusion upon the thresholds of coexistence of species, i. e., the possible changes in the transition between the active state and the absorbing state devoid of predators. To accomplish this task we have performed time dependent simulations and dynamic mean-field approximations. Our results indicate that the diffusive process can enhance the species coexistence.

Trapezoidal cross-sectional influence on FinFET threshold voltage and corner effects

Fin field effect transistors (FinFETS) are silicon-on-insulator (SOI) transistors with three-dimensional structures. As a result of some fabrication-process limitations (as nonideal anisotropic overetch) some FinFETs have inclined surfaces, which results in trapezoidal cross sections instead of rectangular sections, as expected. This geometric alteration results in some device issues, like carrier profile, threshold voltage, and corner effects. This work analyzes these consequences based on three-dimensional numeric simulation of several dual-gate and triple-gate FinFETs. The simulation results show that the threshold voltage depends on the sidewall inclination angle and that this dependence varies according to the body doping level. The corner effects also depend on the inclination angle and doping level. (C) 2008 The Electrochemical Society.

Crossover between the extended and localized regimes in stochastic partially self-avoiding walks in one-dimensional disordered systems

Consider N sites randomly and uniformly distributed in a d-dimensional hypercube. A walker explores this disordered medium going to the nearest site, which has not been visited in the last mu (memory) steps. The walker trajectory is composed of a transient part and a periodic part (cycle). For one-dimensional systems, travelers can or cannot explore all available space, giving rise to a crossover between localized and extended regimes at the critical memory mu(1) = log(2) N. The deterministic rule can be softened to consider more realistic situations with the inclusion of a stochastic parameter T (temperature). In this case, the walker movement is driven by a probability density function parameterized by T and a cost function. The cost function increases as the distance between two sites and favors hops to closer sites. As the temperature increases, the walker can escape from cycles that are reminiscent of the deterministic nature and extend the exploration. Here, we report an analytical model and numerical studies of the influence of the temperature and the critical memory in the exploration of one-dimensional disordered systems.