The achievable region approach to the optimal control of stochastic systems

The achievable region approach seeks solutions to stochastic optimisation problems by: (i) characterising the space of all possible performances(the achievable region) of the system of interest, and (ii) optimisingthe overall system-wide performance objective over this space. This isradically different from conventional formulations based on dynamicprogramming. The approach is explained with reference to a simpletwo-class queueing system. Powerful new methodologies due to the authorsand co-workers are deployed to analyse a general multiclass queueingsystem with parallel servers and then to develop an approach to optimalload distribution across a network of interconnected stations. Finally,the approach is used for the first time to analyse a class of intensitycontrol problems.

Joint evolution of dispersal and inbreeding load.

Inbreeding avoidance is often invoked to explain observed patterns of dispersal, and theoretical models indeed point to a possibly important role. However, while inbreeding load is usually assumed constant in these models, it is actually bound to vary dynamically under the combined influences of mutation, drift, and selection and thus to evolve jointly with dispersal. Here we report the results of individual-based stochastic simulations allowing such a joint evolution. We show that strongly deleterious mutations should play no significant role, owing to the low genomic mutation rate for such mutations. Mildly deleterious mutations, by contrast, may create enough heterosis to affect the evolution of dispersal as an inbreeding-avoidance mechanism, but only provided that they are also strongly recessive. If slightly recessive, they will spread among demes and accumulate at the metapopulation level, thus contributing to mutational load, but not to heterosis. The resulting loss of viability may then combine with demographic stochasticity to promote population fluctuations, which foster indirect incentives for dispersal. Our simulations suggest that, under biologically realistic parameter values, deleterious mutations have a limited impact on the evolution of dispersal, which on average exceeds by only one-third the values expected from kin-competition avoidance.

Stochastic semiclassical cosmological models

We consider the classical stochastic fluctuations of spacetime geometry induced by quantum fluctuations of massless nonconformal matter fields in the early Universe. To this end, we supplement the stress-energy tensor of these fields with a stochastic part, which is computed along the lines of the Feynman-Vernon and Schwinger-Keldysh techniques; the Einstein equation is therefore upgraded to a so-called Einstein-Langevin equation. We consider in some detail the conformal fluctuations of flat spacetime and the fluctuations of the scale factor in a simple cosmological model introduced by Hartle, which consists of a spatially flat isotropic cosmology driven by radiation and dust.

Elderly age is not a negative predictive factor for virological response to therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C virus patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. However, elderly patients often show advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis as known negative predictive factor. The aim of this study was to assess age as an independent predictive factor during antiviral therapy. METHODS: Overall, 516 hepatitis C patients were treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin, thereof 66 patients ≥60 years. We analysed the impact of host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, previous hepatitis C treatment) and viral factors (genotype, viral load) on SVR per therapy course by performing a generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling, a matched pair analysis and a classification tree analysis. RESULTS: Overall, SVR per therapy course was 42.9 and 26.1%, respectively, in young and elderly patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1/4/6. The corresponding figures for HCV genotypes 2/3 were 74.4 and 84%. In the GEE model, age had no significant influence on achieving SVR. In matched pair analysis, SVR was not different in young and elderly patients (54.2 and 55.9% respectively; P = 0.795 in binominal test). In classification tree analysis, age was not a relevant splitting variable. CONCLUSIONS: Age is not a significant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when relevant confounders are taken into account. As life expectancy in Western Europe at age 60 is more than 20 years, it is reasonable to treat chronic hepatitis C in selected elderly patients with relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis but without major concomitant diseases, as SVR improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa: Volume I: An Electronic Database for PIle LOad Tests, September 2011

• Examine current pile design and construction procedures used by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). • Recommend changes and improvements to these procedures that are consistent with available pile load test data, soils information, and bridge design practice recommended by the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach.

How reliable is an undetectable viral load?

OBJECTIVES: An article by the Swiss AIDS Commission states that patients with stably suppressed viraemia [i.e. several successive HIV-1 RNA plasma concentrations (viral loads, VL) below the limits of detection during 6 months or more of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)] are unlikely to be infectious. Questions then arise: how reliable is the undetectability of the VL, given the history of measures? What factors determine reliability? METHODS: We assessed the probability (henceforth termed reliability) that the n+1 VL would exceed 50 or 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL when the nth one had been <50 copies/mL in 6168 patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who were continuing to take HAART between 2003 and 2007. General estimating equations were used to analyse potential factors of reliability. RESULTS: With a cut-off at 50 copies/mL, reliability was 84.5% (n=1), increasing to 94.5% (n=5). Compliance, the current type of HAART and the first antiretroviral therapy (ART) received (HAART or not) were predictive factors of reliability. With a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL, reliability was 97.5% (n=1), increasing to 99.1% (n=4). Chart review revealed that patients had stopped their treatment, admitted to major problems with compliance or were taking non-HAART ART in 72.2% of these cases. Viral escape caused by resistance was found in 5.6%. No explanation was found in the charts of 22.2% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: After several successive VLs at <50 copies/mL, reliability reaches approximately 94% with a cut-off of 50 copies/mL and approximately 99% with a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL. Compliance is the most important factor predicting reliability.

Predicting the deleterious effects of mutation load in fragmented populations.

Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Both genetic and demographic factors combine to drive small and isolated populations into extinction vortices. Nevertheless, the deleterious effects of inbreeding and drift load may depend on population structure, migration patterns, and mating systems and are difficult to predict in the absence of crossing experiments. We performed stochastic individual-based simulations aimed at predicting the effects of deleterious mutations on population fitness (offspring viability and median time to extinction) under a variety of settings (landscape configurations, migration models, and mating systems) on the basis of easy-to-collect demographic and genetic information. Pooling all simulations, a large part (70%) of variance in offspring viability was explained by a combination of genetic structure (F(ST)) and within-deme heterozygosity (H(S)). A similar part of variance in median time to extinction was explained by a combination of local population size (N) and heterozygosity (H(S)). In both cases the predictive power increased above 80% when information on mating systems was available. These results provide robust predictive models to evaluate the viability prospects of fragmented populations.

Programming of marginal zone B-cell fate by basic Kruppel-like factor (BKLF/KLF3).

Splenic marginal zone (MZ) B cells are a lineage distinct from follicular and peritoneal B1 B cells. They are located next to the marginal sinus where blood is released. Here they pick up antigens and shuttle the load onto follicular dendritic cells inside the follicle. On activation, MZ B cells rapidly differentiate into plasmablasts secreting antibodies, thereby mediating humoral immune responses against blood-borne type 2 T-independent antigens. As Krüppel-like factors are implicated in cell differentiation/function in various tissues, we studied the function of basic Krüppel-like factor (BKLF/KLF3) in B cells. Whereas B-cell development in the bone marrow of KLF3-transgenic mice was unaffected, MZ B-cell numbers in spleen were increased considerably. As revealed in chimeric mice, this occurred cell autonomously, increasing both MZ and peritoneal B1 B-cell subsets. Comparing KLF3-transgenic and nontransgenic follicular B cells by RNA-microarray revealed that KLF3 regulates a subset of genes that was similarly up-regulated/down-regulated on normal MZ B-cell differentiation. Indeed, KLF3 expression overcame the lack of MZ B cells caused by different genetic alterations, such as CD19-deficiency or blockade of B-cell activating factor-receptor signaling, indicating that KLF3 may complement alternative nuclear factor-κB signaling. Thus, KLF3 is a driving force toward MZ B-cell maturation.

Decreased thermogenic response to an oral glucose load in older subjects.

The thermogenic response to a 100 g oral glucose load was studied by indirect calorimetry in 13 older persons (age range, 38-68 years) and compared with that of 16 young matched controls of similar body weight (age range, 19-30 years). The glucose-induced thermogenesis measured over 180 min and expressed as a per cent of the energy content of the glucose load was found to be reduced in the older subjects, i.e., 5.8 +/- 0.3 per cent vs 8.6 +/- 0.7 per cent, P less than 0.002). This was also accompanied by a significant decrease in the glucose oxidation rate when averaged over the same three-hour period following the glucose load, i.e., 153 mg/min vs 213 mg/min in the control subjects (P less than 0.001) despite a similar time course of glycemia. This study suggests that the thermogenic response to an oral glucose load is blunted in older people, and this may represent an additional factor that contributes to the decreased energy requirement with age and therefore to the increased propensity to obesity if energy intake is not adjusted.

Decreased glucose-induced thermogenesis after weight loss in obese subjects: a predisposing factor for relapse of obesity?

Glucose-induced thermogenesis (GIT) after a 100-g oral glucose load was measured by continuous indirect calorimetry in 32 nondiabetic and diabetic obese subjects and compared to 17 young and 13 middle aged control subjects. The obese subjects were divided into three groups: A (n = 12) normal glucose tolerance, B (n = 13) impaired glucose tolerance, and C (n = 7) diabetics, and were studied before and after a body weight loss ranging from 9.6 to 33.5 kg consecutive to a 4 to 6 months hypocaloric diet. GIT, measured over 3 h and expressed as percentage of the energy content of the load, was significantly reduced in obese groups A and C (6.2 +/- 0.6, and 3.8 +/- 0.7%, respectively) when compared to their age-matched control groups: 8.6 +/- 0.7 (young) and 5.8 +/- 0.3% (middle aged). Obese group B had a GIT of 6.1 +/- 0.6% which was lower than that of the young control group but not different from the middle-aged control group. After weight loss, GIT in the obese was further reduced in groups A and B than before weight loss: ie, 3.4 +/- 0.6 (p less than 0.001), 3.7 +/- 0.5 (p less than 0.01) respectively, whereas in group C, weight loss induced no further diminution in GIT (3.8 +/- 0.6%). These results support the concept of a thermogenic defect after glucose ingestion in obese individuals which is not the consequence of their excess body weight but may be one of the factors favoring the relapse of obesity after weight loss.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa, Volume I: An Electronic Database for PIle LOad Tests (PILOT), TR-573, 2011

For well over 100 years, the Working Stress Design (WSD) approach has been the traditional basis for geotechnical design with regard to settlements or failure conditions. However, considerable effort has been put forth over the past couple of decades in relation to the adoption of the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach into geotechnical design. With the goal of producing engineered designs with consistent levels of reliability, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) issued a policy memorandum on June 28, 2000, requiring all new bridges initiated after October 1, 2007, to be designed according to the LRFD approach. Likewise, regionally calibrated LRFD resistance factors were permitted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) to improve the economy of bridge foundation elements. Thus, projects TR-573, TR-583 and TR-584 were undertaken by a research team at Iowa State University’s Bridge Engineering Center with the goal of developing resistance factors for pile design using available pile static load test data. To accomplish this goal, the available data were first analyzed for reliability and then placed in a newly designed relational database management system termed PIle LOad Tests (PILOT), to which this first volume of the final report for project TR-573 is dedicated. PILOT is an amalgamated, electronic source of information consisting of both static and dynamic data for pile load tests conducted in the State of Iowa. The database, which includes historical data on pile load tests dating back to 1966, is intended for use in the establishment of LRFD resistance factors for design and construction control of driven pile foundations in Iowa. Although a considerable amount of geotechnical and pile load test data is available in literature as well as in various State Department of Transportation files, PILOT is one of the first regional databases to be exclusively used in the development of LRFD resistance factors for the design and construction control of driven pile foundations. Currently providing an electronically organized assimilation of geotechnical and pile load test data for 274 piles of various types (e.g., steel H-shaped, timber, pipe, Monotube, and concrete), PILOT (http://srg.cce.iastate.edu/lrfd/) is on par with such familiar national databases used in the calibration of LRFD resistance factors for pile foundations as the FHWA’s Deep Foundation Load Test Database. By narrowing geographical boundaries while maintaining a high number of pile load tests, PILOT exemplifies a model for effective regional LRFD calibration procedures.

Initiation and limitation of Ly-49A NK cell receptor acquisition by T cell factor-1.

The establishment of clonally variable expression of MHC class I-specific receptors by NK cells is not well understood. The Ly-49A receptor is used by approximately 20% of NK cells, whereby most cells express either the maternal or paternal allele and few express simultaneously both alleles. We have previously shown that NK cells expressing Ly-49A were reduced or almost absent in mice harboring a single or no functional allele of the transcription factor T cell factor-1 (TCF-1), respectively. In this study, we show that enforced expression of TCF-1 in transgenic mice yields an expanded Ly-49A subset. Even though the frequencies of Ly-49A(+) NK cells varied as a function of the TCF-1 dosage, the relative abundance of mono- and biallelic Ly-49A cells was maintained. Mono- and biallelic Ly-49A NK cells were also observed in mice expressing exclusively a transgenic TCF-1, i.e., expressing a fixed amount of TCF-1 in all NK cells. These findings suggest that Ly-49A acquisition is a stochastic event due to limiting TCF-1 availability, rather than the consequence of clonally variable expression of the endogenous TCF-1 locus. Efficient Ly-49A acquisition depended on the expression of a TCF-1 isoform, which included a domain known to associate with the TCF-1 coactivator beta-catenin. Indeed, the proximal Ly-49A promoter was beta-catenin responsive in reporter gene assays. We thus propose that Ly-49A receptor expression is induced from a single allele in occasional NK cells due to a limitation in the amount of a transcription factor complex requiring TCF-1.

An Assessment ofFatigue Strength of Load Carrying Welded Joints with Lack of Penetration

On yleisesti tiedossa, että väsyttävän kuormituksen alaisena olevat hitsatut rakenteet rikkoutuvat juuri hitsausliitoksista. Täyden tunkeuman hitsausliitoksia sisältävien rakenteiden asiantunteva suunnittelu janykyaikaiset valmistusmenetelmät ovat lähes eliminoineet väsymisvauriot hitsatuissa rakenteissa. Väsymislujuuden parantaminen tiukalla täyden tunkeuman vaatimuksella on kuitenkin epätaloudellinen ratkaisu. Täyden tunkeuman hitsausliitoksille asetettavien laatuvaatimuksien on määriteltävä selkeät tarkastusohjeet ja hylkäämisperusteet. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena oli tutkia geometristen muuttujien vaikutusta kuormaa kantavien hitsausliitosten väsymislujuuteen. Huomio kiinnitettiin pääasiassa suunnittelumuuttujiin, joilla on vaikutusta väsymisvaurioiden syntymiseen hitsauksen juuren puolella. Nykyiset määräykset ja standardit, jotka perustuvat kokeellisiin tuloksiin; antavat melko yleisiä ohjeita hitsausliitosten väsymismitoituksesta. Tämän vuoksi muodostettiin kokonaan uudet parametriset yhtälöt sallitun nimellisen jännityksen kynnysarvon vaihteluvälin, ¿¿th, laskemiseksi, jotta vältettäisiin hitsausliitosten juuren puoleiset väsymisvauriot. Lisäksi, jokaiselle liitostyypille laskettiin hitsin juuren puolen väsymisluokat (FAT), joita verrattiin olemassa olevilla mitoitusohjeilla saavutettuihin tuloksiin. Täydentäviksi referensseiksi suoritettiin useita kolmiulotteisia (3D) analyysejä. Julkaistuja kokeellisiin tuloksiin perustuvia tietoja käytettiin apuna hitsausliitosten väsymiskäyttäytymisen ymmärtämiseksi ja materiaalivakioiden määrittämiseksi. Kuormaa kantavien vajaatunkeumaisten hitsausliitosten väsymislujuus määritettiin käyttämällä elementtimenetelmää. Suurimman pääjännityksen kriteeriä hyödynnettiin murtumiskäyttäytymisen ennakoimiseksi. Valitulle hitsatulle materiaalille ja koeolosuhteille murtumiskäyttäytymistä mallinnettiin särön kasvunopeudella da/dN ja jännitysintensiteettikertoimen vaihteluvälillä, 'K. Paris:n yhtälön numeerinen integrointi suoritettiin FRANC2D/L tietokoneohjelmalla. Saatujen tulosten perusteella voidaan laskea FAT tutkittavassa tapauksessa. ¿¿th laskettiin alkusärön jännitysintensiteettikertoimen vaihteluvälin ja kynnysjännitysintensiteettikertoimen, 'Kth, perusteella. ¿Kth arvoa pienemmällä vaihteluvälillä särö ei kasva. Analyyseissäoletuksena oli hitsattu jälkikäsittelemätön liitos, jossa oli valmis alkusärö hitsin juuressa. Analyysien tulokset ovat hyödyllisiä suunnittelijoille, jotka tekevät päätöksiä koskien geometrisiä parametreja, joilla on vaikutusta hitsausliitosten väsymislujuuteen.

Calculation of the critical crack size for cold form rectangular hollow section tube (CRHS) under bending load at -40º C temperature

To predict the capacity of the structure or the point which is followed by instability, calculation of the critical crack size is important. Structures usually contain several cracks but not necessarily all of these cracks lead to failure or reach the critical size. So, defining the harmful cracks or the crack size which is the most leading one to failure provides criteria for structure’s capacity at elevated temperature. The scope of this thesis was to calculate fracture parameters like stress intensity factor, the J integral and plastic and ultimate capacity of the structure to estimate critical crack size for this specific structure. Several three dimensional (3D) simulations using finite element method by Ansys program and boundary element method by Frank 3D program were carried out to calculate fracture parameters and results with the aid of laboratory tests (loaddisplacement curve, the J resistance curve and yield or ultimate stress) leaded to extract critical size of the crack. Two types of the fracture which is usually affected by temperature, Elastic and Elasti-Plastic fractures were simulated by performing several linear elastic and nonlinear elastic analyses. Geometry details of the weldment; flank angle and toe radius were also studied independently to estimate the location of crack initiation and simulate stress field in early stages of crack extension in structure. In this work also overview of the structure’s capacity in room temperature (20 ºC) was studied. Comparison of the results in different temperature (20 ºC and -40 ºC) provides a threshold of the structure’s behavior within the defined range.