Monitoring the Accuracy of Multiple Occupancy Forecasts

Corporate executives closely monitor the accuracy of their hotels' occupancy fore- casts since important decisions are based upon these predictions. This study lists the criteria for selecting an appropriate error measure. It discusses several evaluation methods focusing on statistical significance tests and demonstrates the use of two adequate evaluation methods: Mincer- Zamowitz's efficiency test and Wilcoxon's Non-Parametric Matched-Pairs Signed- Ranks test.

Speed and Accuracy of People's Trustworthiness Judgment across Cultures

Previous research on person perception has shown that people form first impressions with remarkable speed and accuracy, but relatively little is known about the speed and accuracy of trustworthiness judgments across cultures. The present research examined these by asking Chinese and Canadians to infer trustworthiness from faces of criminals and non-criminals from different cultural backgrounds across two domains (i.e., financial crime in Study 1 and violent crime in Study 2). Across both studies, we found that when participants were given time and opportunity, Chinese tended to take a longer time than Canadians to make trustworthiness judgments (although this difference did not reach statistical significance in Study 2). In Study 1, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging European North Americans (ENA) corporate criminals as less trustworthy than ENA non-criminal executives, although they did not differentiate Asian corporate criminals from Asian non-criminal executives. In Study 2, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging both Asian and ENA violent criminals as less trustworthy than Asian and ENA non-criminals. Chinese were also accurate at rating Middle Eastern violent criminals as less trustworthy than Middle Eastern non-criminals, but Canadians did not differentiate them in terms of their trustworthiness ratings. In terms of their crime likelihood ratings, however, both Chinese and Canadians accurately rated all the criminals as more likely to commit violent crimes than the non-criminals, regardless of the targets’ ethnicities. Finally, we discussed some of the practical implications of our findings on detection of deception, as well as how providing a context for trustworthiness judgments might have played an important role in people’s judgmental accuracy.

Level-resolved quantum statistical theory of electron capture into many-electron compound resonances in highly charged ions

The strong mixing of many-electron basis states in excited atoms and ions with open f shells results in very large numbers of complex, chaotic eigenstates that cannot be computed to any degree of accuracy. Describing the processes which involve such states requires the use of a statistical theory. Electron capture into these “compound resonances” leads to electron-ion recombination rates that are orders of magnitude greater than those of direct, radiative recombination and cannot be described by standard theories of dielectronic recombination. Previous statistical theories considered this as a two-electron capture process which populates a pair of single-particle orbitals, followed by “spreading” of the two-electron states into chaotically mixed eigenstates. This method is similar to a configuration-average approach because it neglects potentially important effects of spectator electrons and conservation of total angular momentum. In this work we develop a statistical theory which considers electron capture into “doorway” states with definite angular momentum obtained by the configuration interaction method. We apply this approach to electron recombination with W²⁰⁺, considering 2×10⁶ doorway states. Despite strong effects from the spectator electrons, we find that the results of the earlier theories largely hold. Finally, we extract the fluorescence yield (the probability of photoemission and hence recombination) by comparison with experiment.

A low overhead error confinement method based on application statistical characteristics

Reliability has emerged as a critical design constraint especially in memories. Designers are going to great lengths to guarantee fault free operation of the underlying silicon by adopting redundancy-based techniques, which essentially try to detect and correct every single error. However, such techniques come at a cost of large area, power and performance overheads which making many researchers to doubt their efficiency especially for error resilient systems where 100% accuracy is not always required. In this paper, we present an alternative method focusing on the confinement of the resulting output error induced by any reliability issues. By focusing on memory faults, rather than correcting every single error the proposed method exploits the statistical characteristics of any target application and replaces any erroneous data with the best available estimate of that data. To realize the proposed method a RISC processor is augmented with custom instructions and special-purpose functional units. We apply the method on the proposed enhanced processor by studying the statistical characteristics of the various algorithms involved in a popular multimedia application. Our experimental results show that in contrast to state-of-the-art fault tolerance approaches, we are able to reduce runtime and area overhead by 71.3% and 83.3% respectively.

The Accuracy and Reliability of Traditional Surface Flow Type Mapping: Is It Time for A New Method of Characterising Physical River Habitat?

Surface flow types (SFT) are advocated as ecologically relevant hydraulic units, often mapped visually from the bankside to characterise rapidly the physical habitat of rivers. SFT mapping is simple, non-invasive and cost-efficient. However, it is also qualitative, subjective and plagued by difficulties in recording accurately the spatial extent of SFT units. Quantitative validation of the underlying physical habitat parameters is often lacking, and does not consistently differentiate between SFTs. Here, we investigate explicitly the accuracy, reliability and statistical separability of traditionally mapped SFTs as indicators of physical habitat, using independent, hydraulic and topographic data collected during three surveys of a c. 50m reach of the River Arrow, Warwickshire, England. We also explore the potential of a novel remote sensing approach, comprising a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry (SfM), as an alternative method of physical habitat characterisation. Our key findings indicate that SFT mapping accuracy is highly variable, with overall mapping accuracy not exceeding 74%. Results from analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) tests found that strong differences did not exist between all SFT pairs. This leads us to question the suitability of SFTs for characterising physical habitat for river science and management applications. In contrast, the sUAS-SfM approach provided high resolution, spatially continuous, spatially explicit, quantitative measurements of water depth and point cloud roughness at the microscale (spatial scales ≤1m). Such data are acquired rapidly, inexpensively, and provide new opportunities for examining the heterogeneity of physical habitat over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Whilst continued refinement of the sUAS-SfM approach is required, we propose that this method offers an opportunity to move away from broad, mesoscale classifications of physical habitat (spatial scales 10-100m), and towards continuous, quantitative measurements of the continuum of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions which actually exists at the microscale.

Quality evaluation of cortex berberidis from different geographical origins by simultaneous high performance liquid chromatography combined with statistical methods

Purpose: To develop an effective method for evaluating the quality of Cortex berberidis from different geographical origins. Methods: A simple, precise and accurate high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was first developed for simultaneous quantification of four active alkaloids (magnoflorine, jatrorrhizine, palmatine, and berberine) in Cortex berberidis obtained from Qinghai, Tibet and Sichuan Provinces of China. Method validation was performed in terms of precision, repeatability, stability, accuracy, and linearity. Besides, partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) were applied to study the quality variations of Cortex berberidis from various geographical origins. Results: The proposed HPLC method showed good linearity, precision, repeatability, and accuracy. The four alkaloids were detected in all samples of Cortex berberidis. Among them, magnoflorine (36.46 - 87.30 mg/g) consistently showed the highest amounts in all the samples, followed by berberine (16.00 - 37.50 mg/g). The content varied in the range of 0.66 - 4.57 mg/g for palmatine and 1.53 - 16.26 mg/g for jatrorrhizine, respectively. The total content of the four alkaloids ranged from 67.62 to 114.79 mg/g. Moreover, the results obtained by the PLS-DA and ANOVA showed that magnoflorine level and the total content of these four alkaloids in Qinghai and Tibet samples were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than those in Sichuan samples. Conclusion: Quantification of multi-ingredients by HPLC combined with statistical methods provide an effective approach for achieving origin discrimination and quality evaluation of Cortex berberidis. The quality of Cortex berberidis closely correlates to the geographical origin of the samples, with Cortex berberidis samples from Qinghai and Tibet exhibiting superior qualities to those from Sichuan.

Preharvest factors affecting quality and antioxidant levels on Abate Fétel pears: study of superficial scald with a multivariate statistical approach and neural networks

There are only a few insights concerning the influence that agronomic and management variability may have on superficial scald (SS) in pears. Abate Fétel pears were picked during three seasons (2018, 2019 and 2020) from thirty commercial orchards in the Emilia Romagna region, Italy. Using a multivariate statistical approach, high heterogeneity between farms for SS development after cold storage with regular atmosphere was demonstrated. Indeed, some factors seem to affect SS in all growing seasons: high yields, soil texture, improper irrigation and Nitrogen management, use of plant growth regulators, late harvest, precipitations, Calcium and cow manure, presence of nets, orchard age, training system and rootstock. Afterwards, we explored the spatio/temporal variability of fruit attributes in two pear orchards. Environmental and physiological spatial variables were recorded by a portable RTK GPS. High spatial variability of the SS index was observed. Through a geostatistical approach, some characteristics, including soil electrical conductivity and fruit size, have been shown to be negatively correlated with SS. Moreover, regression tree analyses were applied suggesting the presence of threshold values of antioxidant capacity, total phenolic content, and acidity against SS. High pulp firmness and IAD values before storage, denoting a more immature fruit, appeared to be correlated with low SS. Finally, a convolution neural networks (CNN) was tested to detect SS and the starch pattern index (SPI) in pears for portable device applications. Preliminary statistics showed that the model for SS had low accuracy but good precision, and the CNN for SPI denoted good performances compared to the Ctifl and Laimburg scales. The major conclusion is that Abate Fétel pears can potentially be stored in different cold rooms, according to their origin and quality features, ensuring the best fruit quality for the final consumers. These results might lead to a substantial improvement in the Italian pear industry.

Identification of outcome-oriented cut-offs for copy number alterations in multiple myeloma: predictive biomarkers with improved prognostic accuracy

Aim of the present study was to develop a statistical approach to define the best cut-off Copy number alterations (CNAs) calling from genomic data provided by high throughput experiments, able to predict a specific clinical end-point (early relapse, 18 months) in the context of Multiple Myeloma (MM). 743 newly diagnosed MM patients with SNPs array-derived genomic and clinical data were included in the study. CNAs were called both by a conventional (classic, CL) and an outcome-oriented (OO) method, and Progression Free Survival (PFS) hazard ratios of CNAs called by the two approaches were compared. The OO approach successfully identified patients at higher risk of relapse and the univariate survival analysis showed stronger prognostic effects for OO-defined high-risk alterations, as compared to that defined by CL approach, statistically significant for 12 CNAs. Overall, 155/743 patients relapsed within 18 months from the therapy start. A small number of OO-defined CNAs were significantly recurrent in early-relapsed patients (ER-CNAs) - amp1q, amp2p, del2p, del12p, del17p, del19p -. Two groups of patients were identified either carrying or not ≥1 ER-CNAs (249 vs. 494, respectively), the first one with significantly shorter PFS and overall survivals (OS) (PFS HR 2.15, p<0001; OS HR 2.37, p<0.0001). The risk of relapse defined by the presence of ≥1 ER-CNAs was independent from those conferred both by R-IIS 3 (HR=1.51; p=0.01) and by low quality (< stable disease) clinical response (HR=2.59 p=0.004). Notably, the type of induction therapy was not descriptive, suggesting that ER is strongly related to patients’ baseline genomic architecture. In conclusion, the OO- approach employed allowed to define CNAs-specific dynamic clonality cut-offs, improving the CNAs calls’ accuracy to identify MM patients with the highest probability to ER. As being outcome-dependent, the OO-approach is dynamic and might be adjusted according to the selected outcome variable of interest.

Comparison Of Different Transfer Impression Techniques Accuracy For Osseointegrated Implants.

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate three transfer techniques used to obtain working casts of implant-supported prostheses through the marginal misfit and strain induced to metallic framework. Thirty working casts were obtained from a metallic master cast, each one containing two implant analogues simulating a clinical situation of three-unit implant-supported fixed prostheses, according to the following transfer impression techniques: Group A, squared transfers splinted with dental floss and acrylic resin, sectioned and re-splinted; Group B, squared transfers splinted with dental floss and bis-acrylic resin; and Group N, squared transfers not splinted. A metallic framework was made for marginal misfit and strain measurements from the metallic master cast. The misfit between metallic framework and the working casts was evaluated with an optical microscope following the single-screw test protocol. In the same conditions, the strain was evaluated using strain gauges placed on the metallic framework. The data was submitted to one-way ANOVA followed by the Tukey's test (α=5%). For both marginal misfit and strain, there were statistically significant differences between Groups A and N (p<0.01) and Groups B and N (p<0.01), with greater values for the Group N. According to the Pearson's test, there was a positive correlation between the variables misfit and strain (r=0.5642). The results of this study showed that the impression techniques with splinted transfers promoted better accuracy than non-splinted one, regardless of the splinting material utilized.

Characterization Of Anfo Explosive By High Accuracy Esi(±)-ftms With Forensic Identification On Real Samples By Easi(-)-ms.

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO) is an explosive used in many civil applications. In Brazil, ANFO has unfortunately also been used in criminal attacks, mainly in automated teller machine (ATM) explosions. In this paper, we describe a detailed characterization of the ANFO composition and its two main constituents (diesel and a nitrate explosive) using high resolution and accuracy mass spectrometry performed on an FT-ICR-mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI(±)-FTMS) in both the positive and negative ion modes. Via ESI(-)-MS, an ion marker for ANFO was characterized. Using a direct and simple ambient desorption/ionization technique, i.e., easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), in a simpler, lower accuracy but robust single quadrupole mass spectrometer, the ANFO ion marker was directly detected from the surface of banknotes collected from ATM explosion theft.

Vertical Bone Measurements From Cone Beam Computed Tomography Images Using Different Software Packages.

This article aimed at comparing the accuracy of linear measurement tools of different commercial software packages. Eight fully edentulous dry mandibles were selected for this study. Incisor, canine, premolar, first molar and second molar regions were selected. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images were obtained with i-CAT Next Generation. Linear bone measurements were performed by one observer on the cross-sectional images using three different software packages: XoranCat®, OnDemand3D® and KDIS3D®, all able to assess DICOM images. In addition, 25% of the sample was reevaluated for the purpose of reproducibility. The mandibles were sectioned to obtain the gold standard for each region. Intraclass coefficients (ICC) were calculated to examine the agreement between the two periods of evaluation; the one-way analysis of variance performed with the post-hoc Dunnett test was used to compare each of the software-derived measurements with the gold standard. The ICC values were excellent for all software packages. The least difference between the software-derived measurements and the gold standard was obtained with the OnDemand3D and KDIS3D (-0.11 and -0.14 mm, respectively), and the greatest, with the XoranCAT (+0.25 mm). However, there was no statistical significant difference between the measurements obtained with the different software packages and the gold standard (p> 0.05). In conclusion, linear bone measurements were not influenced by the software package used to reconstruct the image from CBCT DICOM data.

Profundidade de deposição de semente de milho na região dos Campos Gerais, Paraná

No Tillage system is fully incorporated to farming in the region of Campos Gerais, state of Paraná. Accuracy and precision in the planting process are items of great importance for the success of this system. In order to evaluate the planting process, thirty eight farms were selected as sites for analysis of the placement depth of seeds. The research area was 4 or 5 planting rows, evaluating 10 plantlets per row. The average seed depth was around 46 mm, and significant differences between rows were observed in 21 areas. The average coefficient of variation was around 20%, the statistical limit between medium and high. Analyses of other parameters show that those coefficients may represent different errors in the process. The planting process in Campos Gerais can be considered efficient regarding to the average seed depth. However, the analysis of variability implies de need of actions concerning to anthropic and machinery factors.

Qualidade de vida e nivel de atividade fisica de funcionarios de empresa de tecnologia da comunicação

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Analise do processo de rastreamento automatico de jogadores em esportes coletivos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Testes de desempenho aeróbio relacionados a intensidades de corrida em treinamento e competição para fundistas de alto rendimento = : Aerobic performance tests related to training and competition running intensities for high performance distance runners

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física