Microwave spectrum of CHD2CN and CHD2NC, and the harmonic force field and rz structure of methyl cyanide and isocyanide

The microwave spectra of CHD2CN and CHD2NC have been measured from 18 to 40 GHz; about 20 type A and 30 type C transitions have been observed for each molecule. These have been fitted to a Hamiltonian using 3 rotational constants, and 5 quartic and 4 sextic distortion constants, in the IrS reduction of Watson [in “Vibrational spectra and structure” Vol. 6 (1977)]; the standard error of the fit is 26 kHz. For methyl cyanide the 5 quartic distortion constants have been used to further refine the recent harmonic force field of Duncan et al. [J. Mol. Spectrosc. 69, 123 (1978)], but the changes are small. Finally, for both molecules, the harmonic force field has been used to determine zero point average moments of inertia Iz from the ground state rotational constants for many isotopic species, and these have been used to determine an rz structure. The results are compared with rs structure calculations.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

Estimating numbers of infectious units from serial dilution assays

The paper concerns the design and analysis of serial dilution assays to estimate the infectivity of a sample of tissue when it is assumed that the sample contains a finite number of indivisible infectious units such that a subsample will be infectious if it contains one or more of these units. The aim of the study is to estimate the number of infectious units in the original sample. The standard approach to the analysis of data from such a study is based on the assumption of independence of aliquots both at the same dilution level and at different dilution levels, so that the numbers of infectious units in the aliquots follow independent Poisson distributions. An alternative approach is based on calculation of the expected value of the total number of samples tested that are not infectious. We derive the likelihood for the data on the basis of the discrete number of infectious units, enabling calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate and likelihood-based confidence intervals. We use the exact probabilities that are obtained to compare the maximum likelihood estimate with those given by the other methods in terms of bias and standard error and to compare the coverage of the confidence intervals. We show that the methods have very similar properties and conclude that for practical use the method that is based on the Poisson assumption is to be recommended, since it can be implemented by using standard statistical software. Finally we consider the design of serial dilution assays, concluding that it is important that neither the dilution factor nor the number of samples that remain untested should be too large.

On-line prediction of cheese making using backscatter of near infrared indices light

The potential of a fibre optic sensor, detecting light backscatter in a cheese vat during coagulation and syneresis, to predict curd moisture, fat loses and curd yield was examined. Temperature, cutting time and calcium levels were varied to assess the strength of the predictions over a range of processing conditions. Equations were developed using a combination of independent variables, milk compositional and light backscatter parameters. Fat losses, curd yield and curd moisture content were predicted with a standard error of prediction (SEP) of +/- 2.65 g 100 g(-1) (R-2 = 0.93), +/- 0.95% (R-2 = 0.90) and +/- 1.43% (R-2 = 0.94), respectively. These results were used to develop a model for predicting curd moisture as a function of time during syneresis (SEP = +/- 1.72%; R-2 = 0.95). By monitoring coagulation and syneresis, this sensor technology could be employed to control curd moisture content, thereby improving process control during cheese manufacture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

The accuracy of valuations: expectation and reality

The relationship between valuations and the subsequent sale price continues to be a matter of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper reports the analysis of over 700 property sales made during the 1974/90 period. Initial results imply an average under-valuation of 7% and a standard error of 18% across the sample. A number of techniques are applied to the data set using other variables such as the region, the type of property and the return from the market to explain the difference between the valuation and the subsequent sale price. The analysis reduces the unexplained error; the bias is fully accounted for and the standard error is reduced to 15.3%. This model finds that about 6% of valuations over-estimated the sale price by more than 20% and about 9% of the valuations under-estimated the sale prices by more than 20%. The results suggest that valuations are marginally more accurate than might be expected, both from consideration of theoretical considerations and from comparison with the equivalent valuation in equity markets.

A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7 Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7 Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9 Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge.

Comparison of TAMSAT and CPC rainfall estimates with raingauges, for southern Africa

Two different TAMSAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorological Satellites) methods of rainfall estimation were developed for northern and southern Africa, based on Meteosat images. These two methods were used to make rainfall estimates for the southern rainy season from October 1995 to April 1996. Estimates produced by both TAMSAT methods and estimates produced by the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) method were then compared with kriged data from over 800 raingauges in southern Africa. This shows that operational TAMSAT estimates are better over plateau regions, with 59% of estimates within one standard error (s.e.) of the kriged rainfall. Over mountainous regions the CPC approach is generally better, although all methods underestimate and give only 40% of estimates within 1 s.e. The two TAMSAT methods show little difference across a whole season, but when looked at in detail the northern method gives unsatisfactory calibrations. The CPC method does have significant overall improvements by building in real-time raingauge data, but only where sufficient raingauges are available.

Serum oxytocin concentrations in elective caesarean delivery: a randomized comparison of three infusion regimens

Background: The aim of this study was to determine serum oxytocin concentrations following different regimens of prophylactic oxytocin administration in women undergoing elective caesarean delivery. Methods: Thirty healthy pregnant patients were randomized, after clamping of the umbilical cord, to receive intravenous oxytocin in one of the following groups: G1 (n = 9), 10 IU of oxytocin infused over 30 min (0.33 IU/min); G2 (n = 11), 10 IU of oxytocin infused over 3 min and 45 s (2.67 IU/min); and G3 (n = 10), 80 IU of oxytocin infused over 30 min (2.67 IU/min). Both patient and surgeon were blinded to allocation. Uterine tone was assessed by surgical palpation. Serum oxytocin concentration was determined by enzyme immunoassay before anaesthesia (T0) and at 5 (T5), 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) min after the start of oxytocin infusion. Results: Serum oxytocin concentrations (mean standard error, ng/mL) were not significantly different in the groups at T0 (0.06 +/- 0.02, 0.04 +/- 0.02 and 0.07 +/- 0.04, respectively, P = 0.76), and T60 (0.65 +/- 0.26, 0.36 +/- 0.26 and 0.69 +/- 0.26, respectively, P = 0.58). G3 showed higher concentrations than G1 at 15 (3.65 +/- 0.74 versus 0.71 +/- 0.27, P = 0.01) and at T30 (6.19 +/- 1.19 versus 1.17 +/- 0.37, P < 0.01), and were higher than G2 at T30 (6.19 +/- 1.19 versus 0.41 +/- 0.2, P < 0.01). Haemodynamic data and uterine tone were considered satisfactory and similar in all groups. No additional uterotonic agents were needed. Conclusion: Serum oxytocin measurements made using enzyme immunoassay in healthy pregnant women undergoing elective caesarean delivery showed that administration of 80 IU oxytocin over 30 min resulted in higher serum oxytocin levels after 5 and 30 min than the two other regimens. The concentrations did not differ between groups at 60 min. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for duodenal levodopa infusion

Objective Levodopa in presence of decarboxylase inhibitors is following two-compartment kinetics and its effect is typically modelled using sigmoid Emax models. Pharmacokinetic modelling of the absorption phase of oral distributions is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. The purpose of this work was to identify and estimate a population pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic model for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Methods The modelling involved pooling data from two studies and fixing some parameters to values found in literature (Chan et al. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn. 2005 Aug;32(3-4):307-31). The first study involved 12 patients on 3 occasions and is described in Nyholm et al. Clinical Neuropharmacology 2003:26:156-63. The second study, PEDAL, involved 3 patients on 2 occasions. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Plasma samples and motor ratings (clinical assessment of motor function from video recordings on a treatment response scale between -3 and 3, where -3 represents severe parkinsonism and 3 represents severe dyskinesia.) were repeatedly collected until the clinical effect was back at baseline. At this point, the usual infusion rate was started and sampling continued for another two hours. Different structural absorption models and effect models were evaluated using the value of the objective function in the NONMEM package. Population mean parameter values, standard error of estimates (SE) and if possible, interindividual/interoccasion variability (IIV/IOV) were estimated. Results Our results indicate that Duodopa absorption can be modelled with an absorption compartment with an added bioavailability fraction and a lag time. The most successful effect model was of sigmoid Emax type with a steep Hill coefficient and an effect compartment delay. Estimated parameter values are presented in the table. Conclusions The absorption and effect models were reasonably successful in fitting observed data and can be used in simulation experiments.

Infecção hospitalar associada ao uso de cateter venoso central e a quebra de protocolos pelos profissionais de saúde na UTI de um hospital universitário em Natal/RN

This is a study descriptive cross-sectional and quantitative approaches, which aimed to analyze the association between hospital infection rate for insertion, maintenance of central venous catheter and the breakdown of protocols (rules and routines) by health professionals assisting patients in the ICU of a university hospital in Natal / RN. The process of data collection was through observation with structured form, refers to medical records and structured questionnaires with health professionals. The results were organized, tabulated, categorized and analyzed using SPSS 14.0. The characterization of the subjects was performed using descriptive and inferential statistics, taking into account the nature of the variables, with analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Spearman correlation test, it was a discussion of the information obtained, considering the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variance and standard error. The variables that showed a higher level of correlation were treated with the application of significance tests. As the results, 71% of participants were female and 29% male, age ranged from 18 to 85 years (52.6 ± 22.5). The insertion, there was a variation from 0 to 5 errors (1.2 ± 1.4), during maintenance, the average was 2.3 ± 0.9 errors, ranging from 0 to 4. During the insertion and maintenance of CVC, patients who had been an infection ranging from 2 to 9 mistakes (4.2 ± 1.7), since those who did not show the variation goes from 0 to 5 errors (2, 8 ± 1.5). The correlation coefficient between the risk of infection throughout the process and the risk of infection at the insertion showed strong and significant (r = 0.845 p = 0.000) and in relation to risk of infection in maintenance was moderate and significant (r = 0.551 p = 0.001). The mistakes made by professionals in the procedures for insertion and maintenance of the catheter, associated with other conditions, shown as a risk factor for the of IH

Amostragem para diagnose do estado nutricional de mangueiras

Dentre todas as etapas que permeiam um laudo foliar, ainda a amostragem continua sendo a mais sujeita a erros. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo determinar o tamanho de amostras foliares e a variação do erro amostral para coleta de folhas de pomares de mangueiras. O experimento contou com delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com seis repetições e quatro tratamentos, que constaram da coleta de uma folha, em cada uma das quatro posições cardeais, em 5; 10; 20 e 40 plantas. Com base nos resultados dos teores de nutrientes, foram calculados as médias, variâncias, erros-padrão das médias, o intervalo de confiança para a média e a porcentagem de erro em relação à média, através da semi-amplitude do intervalo de confiança expresso em porcentagem da média. Concluiu-se que, para as determinações químicas dos macronutrientes, 10 plantas de mangueira seriam suficientes, coletando-se uma folha nos quatro pontos cardeais da planta. Já para os micronutrientes, seriam necessárias, no mínimo, 20 plantas e, se considerarmos o Fe, seria necessário amostrar, pelo menos, 30 plantas.

Genetic associations between age at first calving and heifer body weight and scrotal circumference in Nelore cattle

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Determination of the highest no-effect dose (HNED) and of the elimination pattern for cocaine in horses

Cocaine is one of the most widespread illegal stimulants utilized by the human population throughout the world. The aim of this study was to establish the highest no-effect dose (HNED) of cocaine on the spontaneous locomotor activity (SLA) of horses in a behavior chamber, and thereby to determine the maximal acceptable threshold of the urinary drug concentration in horses. Twelve English thoroughbred mares received 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, 0.08 or 0.12 mg kg(-1) cocaine i.v. or saline solution (control). It was noted that doses above 0.04 mg kg(-1) induced a significant increase in SLA (P < 0.05, Tukey's test). No significant increase in SLA was seen in the mares that received 0.03 mg kg(-1), but the animals showed important behavioral changes that did not occur after the 0.02 mg kg(-1) dose. It was concluded that the HNED of cocaine for horses in a behavior chamber is 0.02 mg kg(-1). After injection of this dose in five horses, urine samples were collected at predetermined intervals through vesical catheterization. The concentrations of cocaine, norcocaine, benzoylecgonine and ecgonine methyl ester were quantified by liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. Cocaine and norcocaine concentrations remained consistently below the level of detection. Benzoylecgonine reached a mean (+/- SEM) maximum concentration of 531.9 +/- 168.7 ng ml(-1) after 4 h, whereas ecgonine methyl ester peaked 2 h after injection at a concentration of 97.2 +/- 26.5 ng ml(-1). The maximum admissible concentration for cocaine and/or metabolites in the urine of horses is difficult to establish unequivocally because of the substantial individual variation in the drug elimination pattern observed in horses, which can be inferred by the large standard error of the means obtained. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Real time B-mode ultrasound in pacas pregnancy (Agouti paca, Linnaeus, 1766)

O objetivo deste estudo foi estabelecer o tempo de prenhez da paca por meio de ultra-sonografia. Nove pacas prenhes foram periodicamente acompanhadas com um transdutor eletrônico setorial bi-frequencial de 5,0 e 7,5 MHz, em modo B, desde a detecção ultra-sonográfica da vesícula embrionária ou do feto até o nascimento dos filhotes. Os animais foram colocados em uma gaiola de ferro de prensagem lateral e permaneceram em posição quadrupedal durante as sessões. Um pano escuro foi usado para cobrir a gaiola e frutas foram oferecidas durante o exame ultra-sonográfico para evitar reações agressivas. Quanto mais precocemente ocorreu a detecção de prenhez, maior foi o período de acompanhamento ultra-sonográfico até o nascimento dos filhotes. Apenas um filhote nasceu por parto, com 796,5 ± 74,36 gramas (valor médio ± desvio padrão da amostra) e 33,46 ± 0,60 centímetros (valor médio ± desvio padrão da amostra) de comprimento (entre a borda rostral do focinho e a extremidade distal da cauda). O período de prenhez da paca abrange 135 a 139 dias.

Comparison of different analysis techniques for the determination of muscle onset in individuals with patellofemoral pain syndrome

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