Patterns of Cactaceae species distribution in a protected area in the semiarid caatinga biome of North-Eastern Brazil.

2016

Growing biodiverse carbon-rich forests

Regrowing forests on cleared land is a key strategy to achieve both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation globally. Maximizing these co-benefits, however, remains theoretically and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between carbon sequestration and biodiversity in forests, the strong influence of climate variability and landscape position on forest development, the large number of restoration strategies possible, and long time-frames needed to declare success. Through the synthesis of three decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize carbon sequestration by simply increasing the functional trait diversity of trees planted. The relationships between plant functional diversity, carbon sequestration rates above-ground and in the soil are dependent on climate and landscape positions. We show how to manage ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between plant functional traits in order to achieve systematically maximal co-benefits in various climate and landscape contexts. We provide examples of optimal planting and thinning rules that satisfy this ecological strategy and guide the restoration of forests that are rich in both carbon and plant functional diversity. Our framework provides the first mechanistic approach for generating decision-making rules that can be used to manage forests for multiple objectives, and supports joined carbon credit and biodiversity conservation initiatives, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+. The decision framework can also be linked to species distribution models and socio-economic models in order to find restoration solutions that maximize simultaneously biodiversity, carbon stocks and other ecosystem services across landscapes. Our study provides the foundation for developing and testing cost-effective and adaptable forest management rules to achieve biodiversity, carbon sequestration and other socio-economic co-benefits under global change.

Optimizing search strategies for invasive pests: Learn before you leap

Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Divvying up an incubator: How parasitic and mutualistic fig wasps use space within their nursery microcosm

Differential occupancy of space can lead to species coexistence. The fig-fig wasp pollination system hosts species-specific pollinating and parasitic wasps that develop within galls in a nursery comprising a closed inflorescence, the syconium. This microcosm affords excellent opportunities for investigating spatial partitioning since it harbours a closed community in which all wasp species are dependent on securing safe sites inside the syconium for their developing offspring while differing in life history, egg deposition strategies and oviposition times relative to nursery development. We determined ontogenetic changes in oviposition sites available to the seven-member fig wasp community of Ficus racemosa comprising pollinators, gallers and parasitoids. We used species distribution models (SDMs) for the first time at a microcosm scale to predict patterns of spatial occurrence of nursery occupants. SDMs gave high true-positive and low false-positive site occupancy rates for most occupants indicating species specificity in oviposition sites. The nursery microcosm itself changed with syconium development and sequential egg-laying by different wasp species. The number of sites occupied by offspring of the different wasp species was negatively related to the risk of syconium abortion by the plant host following oviposition. Since unpollinated syconia are usually aborted, parasitic wasps ovipositing into nurseries at the same time as the pollinator targeted many sites, suggesting response to lower risk of syconium abortion owing to reduced risk of pollination failure compared to those species ovipositing before pollination. Wasp life history and oviposition time relative to nursery development contributed to the co-existence of nursery occupants.

Modelagem de bioinvasão do coral-sol (Tubastraea coccinea e T. tagusensis):mecanismos da ocupação e dispersão e identificação de sua potencial distribuição geográfica

Os fatores que explicam a distribuição observada em plantas e animais é uma pergunta que intriga naturalistas, biogeógrafos e ecólogos há mais de um século. Ainda nos primórdios da disciplina de ecologia, as tolerâncias ambientais já haviam sido apontadas como as grandes responsáveis pelo padrão observado da distribuição dos seres vivos, o que mais tarde levou à concepção de nicho ecológico das espécies. Nos últimos anos, o estudo das distribuições dos organismos ganhou grande impulso e destaque na literatura. O motivo foi a maior disponibilidade de catálogos de presença de espécies, o desenvolvimento de bancos de variáveis ambientais de todo o planeta e de ferramentas computacionais capazes de projetar mapas de distribuição potencial de um dado organismo. Estes instrumentos, coletivamente chamados de Modelos de Distribuição de Espécies (MDEs) têm sido desde então amplamente utilizados em estudos de diferentes escopos. Um deles é a avaliação de potenciais áreas suscetíveis à invasão de organismos exóticos. Este estudo tem, portanto, o objetivo de compreender, através de MDEs, os fatores subjacentes à distribuição de duas espécies de corais escleractíneos invasores nativos do Oceano Pacífico e ambas invasoras bem sucedidas de diversas partes do Oceano Atlântico, destacadamente o litoral fluminense. Os resultados mostraram que os modelos preditivos da espécie Tubastraea coccinea (LESSON, 1829), cosmopolita amplamente difundida na sua região nativa pelo Indo- Pacífico demonstraram de maneira satisfatória suas áreas de distribuição nas áreas invadidas do Atlântico. Sua distribuição está basicamente associada a regiões com alta disponibilidade de calcita e baixa produtividade fitoplanctônica. Por outro lado, a aplicação de MDEs foi incapaz de predizer a distribuição de T. tagusensis (WELLS,1982) no Atlântico. Essta espécie, ao contrário de sua congênere, tem distribuição bastante restrita em sua região nativa, o arquipélago de Galápagos. Através de análises posteriores foi possível constatar a mudança no nicho observado durante o processo de invasão. Finalmente, o sucesso preditivo para T. coccinea e o fracasso dos modelos para T. tagusensis levantam importantes questões sobre quais os aspectos ecológicos das espécies são mais favoráveis à aplicação de MDEs. Adicionalmente, lança importantes ressalvas na utilização recentemente tão difundida destas ferramentas como forma de previsão de invasões biológicas e em estudos de efeitos de alterações climáticas sobre a distribuição das espécies.

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.

Identifying optimal feeding habitat and proposed Marine Protected Areas (pMPAs) for the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) suggests a need for complementary management approaches

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important conservation tool. For marine predators, recent research has focused on the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to identify proposed sites. We used a maximum entropy modelling approach based on static and dynamic oceanographic parameters to determine optimal feeding habitat for black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) at two colonies during two consecutive breeding seasons (2009 and 2010). A combination of Geographic Positioning System (GPS) loggers and Time-Depth Recorders (TDRs) attributed feeding activity to specific locations. Feeding areas were <30 km from the colony, <40 km from land, in productive waters, 25–175m deep. The predicted extent of optimal habitat declined at both colonies between 2009 and 2010 coincident with declines in reproductive success. Whilst the area of predicted optimal habitat changed, its location was spatially stable between years. There was a close match between observed feeding locations and habitat predicted as optimal at one colony (Lambay Island, Republic of Ireland), but a notable mismatch at the other (Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland). Designation of an MPA at Rathlin may, therefore, be less effective than a similar designation at Lambay perhaps due to the inherent variability in currents and sea state in the North Channel compared to the comparatively stable conditions in the central Irish Sea. Current strategies for designating MPAs do not accommodate likely future redistribution of resources due to climate change. We advocate the development of new approaches including dynamic MPAs that track changes in optimal habitat and non-colony specific ecosystem management.

Off-road sampling reveals a different grassland bird community than roadside sampling: implications for survey design and estimates to guide conservation

Grassland bird species continue to decline steeply across North America. Road-based surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) are often used to estimate trends and population sizes and to build species distribution models for grassland birds, although roadside survey counts may introduce bias in estimates because of differences in habitats along roadsides and in off-road surveys. We tested for differences in land cover composition and in the avian community on 21 roadside-based survey routes and in an equal number of adjacent off-road walking routes in the grasslands of southern Alberta, Canada. Off-road routes (n = 225 point counts) had more native grassland and short shrubs and less fallow land and road area than the roadside routes (n = 225 point counts). Consequently, 17 of the 39 bird species differed between the two route types in frequency of occurrence and relative abundance, measured using an indicator species analysis. Six species, including five obligate grassland species, were more prevalent at off-road sites; they included four species listed under the Canadian federal Species At Risk Act or listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada: Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii), the Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus), and McCown’s Longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii). The six species were as much as four times more abundant on off-road sites. Species more prevalent along roadside routes included common species and those typical of farmland and other human-modified habitats, e.g., the European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris), the Black-billed Magpie (Pica hudsonia), and the House Sparrow (Passer domesticus). Differences in avian community composition between roadside and off-road surveys suggest that the use of BBS data when generating population estimates or distribution models may overestimate certain common species and underestimate others of conservation concern. Our results highlight the need to develop appropriate corrections for bias in estimates derived from roadside sampling, and the need to design surveys that sample bird communities across a more representative cross-section of the landscape, both near and far from roads. 

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species` sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rekonstruktion der eiszeitlichen Verbreitung und Artbildung vier alpiner Primeln durch Artenverbreitungsmodelle und Phylogeographie

Aim: Previous studies revealed that diversification events in the western clade of the alpine Primula sect. Auricula were concentrated in the Quaternary cold periods. This implies that allopatric speciation in isolated glacial refugia was the most common mode of speciation. In the first part of the present dissertation, this hypothesis is further investigated by locating refugial areas of two sister species, Primula marginata & P. latifolia during the last glacial maximum, 21,000 years ago. In the second part, the glacial and postglacial history of P. hirsuta and P. daonensis is investigated. Location: European Alps. Methods: Glacial refugia were located using species distribution models, which are projected to last glacial maximum climate. These refugia are validated with geographic distribution patterns of intra-specific genetic diversity, rarity and variation. Results 1) Speciation: Glacial refugia of the sister taxa Primula marginata and P. latifolia were largely separated, only a small overlapping zone at the southern margin of the former glacier in the Maritime Alps exists. This overlapping zone is too small to indicate sympatric speciation. The largely separated glacial distribution of both species rather confirms our hypothesis of allopatric speciation in isolated glacial refugia. Results 2) Glacial and postglacial history: Surprizingly, the modelled potential refugia of three out of four Primula species are situated within the former ice-shield, except for P. marginata. This indicates that peripheral and central nunataks played an important role for the glacial survival in P. latifolia, P. hirsuta and P. daonensis, while peripheral refugia outside the maximum extend of the glacier were crucial in P. marginata. In P. hirsuta and P. latifolia SDMs allowed to exclude several hypothetical refugial areas that overlap with today’s distribution as potential refugia for the species. In P. marginata, hypothetical refugial areas at the periphery of the former ice-shield that overlap with today’s distribution were confirmed by the models. The results from the SDMs are confirmed by population genetic patterns in three out of four species. P. daonensis represents an exception, where population genetic data contradict the SDMs. Main conclusions: Species distribution models provide species specific scenarios of glacial distribution and postglacial re-colonization, which can be validated using population genetic analyses. This combined approach is useful and helps to understand the complex processes that have lead to the genetic and floristic patterns of biodiversity that is found today in the Alps.

Landscape ecology and genetics of the wolf in Italy

This PhD Thesis includes five main parts on diverse topics. The first two parts deal with the trophic ecology of wolves in Italy consequently to a recent increase of wild ungulates abundance. Data on wolf diet across time highlighted how wild ungulates are important food resource for wolves in Italy. Increasing wolf population, increasing numbers of wild ungulates and decreasing livestock consume are mitigating wolf-man conflicts in Italy in the near future. In the third part, non-invasive genetic sampling techniques were used to obtain genotypes and genders of about 400 wolves. Thus, wolf packs were genetically reconstructed using diverse population genetic and parentage software. Combining the results on pack structure and genetic relatedness with sampling locations, home ranges of wolf packs and dispersal patterns were identified. These results, particularly important for the conservation management of wolves in Italy, illustrated detailed information that can be retrieved from genetic identification of individuals. In the fourth part, wolf locations were combined with environmental information obtained as GIS-layers. Modern species distribution models (niche models) were applied to infer potential wolf distribution and predation risk. From the resulting distribution maps, information pastures with the highest risk of depredation were derived. This is particularly relevant as it allows identifying those areas under danger of carnivore attack on livestock. Finally, in the fifth part, habitat suitability models were combined with landscape genetic analysis. On one side landscape genetic analyses on the Italian wolves provided new information on the dynamics and connectivity of the population and, on the other side, a profound analysis of the effects that habitat suitability methods had on the parameterization of landscape genetic analyses was carried out to contributed significantly to landscape genetic theory.

Counterbalancing effects of competition for resources and facilitation against grazing in alpine snowbed communities

Alpine snowbeds are habitats where the major limiting factors for plant growth are herbivory and a small time window for growth due to late snowmelt. Despite these limitations, snowbed vegetation usually forms a dense carpet of palatable plants due to favourable abiotic conditions for plant growth within the short growing season. These environmental characteristics make snowbeds particularly interesting to study the interplay of facilitation and competition. We hypothesised an interplay between resource competition and facilitation against herbivory. Further, we investigated whether these predicted neighbour effects were species-specific and/or dependent on ontogeny, and whether the balance of positive and negative plant–plant interactions shifted along a snowmelt gradient. We determined the neighbour effects by means of neighbour removal experiments along the snowmelt gradient, and linear mixed model analyses. The results showed that the effects of neighbour removal were weak but generally consistent among species and snowmelt dates, and depended on whether biomass production or survival was considered. Higher total biomass and increased fruiting in removal plots indicated that plants competed for nutrients, water, and light, thereby supporting the hypothesis of prevailing competition for resources in snowbeds. However, the presence of neighbours reduced herbivory and thereby also facilitated survival. For plant growth the facilitative effects against herbivores in snowbeds counterbalanced competition for resources, leading to a weak negative net effect. Overall the neighbour effects were not species-specific and did not change with snowmelt date. Our finding of counterbalancing effects of competition and facilitation within a plant community is of special theoretical value for species distribution models and can explain the success of models that give primary importance to abiotic factors and tend to overlook interrelations between biotic and abiotic effects on plants.

Isolation and characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite markers for the deep-sea shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea)

Background: The shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes Bate, 1888 is found in the deep sea around Antarctica and sub-Antarctic islands. Previous studies on mitochondrial data and species distribution models provided evidence for a homogenous circum-Antarctic population of N. lanceopes. However, to analyze the fine-scale population genetic structure and to examine influences of abiotic environmental conditions on population composition and genetic diversity, a set of fast evolving nuclear microsatellite markers is required. Findings: We report the isolation and characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite markers from the Antarctic deep-sea shrimp species Nematocarcinus lanceopes (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea). Microsatellite markers were screened in 55 individuals from different locations around the Antarctic continent. All markers were polymorphic with 9 to 25 alleles per locus. The observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.545 to 0.927 and the expected heterozygosity from 0.549 to 0.934. Conclusions: The reported markers provide a novel tool to study genetic structure and diversity in Nematocarcinus lanceopes populations in the Southern Ocean and monitor effects of ongoing climate change in the region on the populations inhabiting these.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.