Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

Comparison of CloudSat and TRMM radar reflectivities

Comparison of reflectivity data of radars onboard CloudSat and TRMM is performed using coincident overpasses. The contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) are constructed for two cases: (a) only include collocated vertical profiles that are most likely to be raining and (b) include all collocated profiles along with cloudy pixels falling within a distance of about 50 km from the centre point of coincidence. Our analysis shows that for both cases, CloudSat underestimates the radar reflectivity by about 10 dBZ compared to that of TRMM radar below 15 km altitude. The difference is well outside the uncertainty value of similar to 2 dBZ of each radar. Further, CloudSat reflectivity shows a decreasing trend while that of TRMM radar an increasing trend below 4 km height. Basically W-band radar that CloudSat flies suffers strong attenuation in precipitating clouds and its reflectivity value rarely exceeds 20 dBZ though its technical specification indicates the upper measurement limit to be 40 dBZ. TRMM radar, on the other hand, cannot measure values below 17 dBZ. In fact combining data from these two radars seems to give a better overall spatial structure of convective clouds.

Effect of amplitude correlations on coherence in the local field potential

Neural activity across the brain shows both spatial and temporal correlations at multiple scales, and understanding these correlations is a key step toward understanding cortical processing. Correlation in the local field potential (LFP) recorded from two brain areas is often characterized by computing the coherence, which is generally taken to reflect the degree of phase consistency across trials between two sites. Coherence, however, depends on two factors-phase consistency as well as amplitude covariation across trials-but the spatial structure of amplitude correlations across sites and its contribution to coherence are not well characterized. We recorded LFP from an array of microelectrodes chronically implanted in the primary visual cortex of monkeys and studied correlations in amplitude across electrodes as a function of interelectrode distance. We found that amplitude correlations showed a similar trend as coherence as a function of frequency and interelectrode distance. Importantly, even when phases were completely randomized between two electrodes, amplitude correlations introduced significant coherence. To quantify the contributions of phase consistency and amplitude correlations to coherence, we simulated pairs of sinusoids with varying phase consistency and amplitude correlations. These simulations confirmed that amplitude correlations can significantly bias coherence measurements, resulting in either over-or underestimation of true phase coherence. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the correlations in amplitude while using coherence to study phase relationships across sites and frequencies.

Meridional gradients in aerosol vertical distribution over Indian Mainland: Observations and model simulations

Multi-year observations from the network of ground-based observatories (ARFINET), established under the project `Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India' (ARFI) of Indian Space Research Organization and space-borne lidar `Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization' (CALIOP) along with simulations from the chemical transport model `Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport' (GOCART), are used to characterize the vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosols over the Indian landmass and its spatial structure. While the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction showed higher values close to the surface followed by a gradual decrease at increasing altitudes, a strong meridional increase is observed in the vertical spread of aerosols across the Indian region in all seasons. It emerges that the strong thermal convections cause deepening of the atmospheric boundary layer, which although reduces the aerosol concentration at lower altitudes, enhances the concentration at higher elevations by pumping up more aerosols from below and also helping the lofted particles to reach higher levels in the atmosphere. Aerosol depolarization ratios derived from CALIPSO as well as the GOCART simulations indicate the dominance of mineral dust aerosols during spring and summer and anthropogenic aerosols in winter. During summer monsoon, though heavy rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon removes large amounts of aerosols, the prevailing southwesterly winds advect more marine aerosols over to landmass (from the adjoining oceans) leading to increase in aerosol loading at lower altitudes than in spring. During spring and summer months, aerosol loading is found to be significant, even at altitudes as high as 4 km, and this is proposed to have significant impacts on the regional climate systems such as Indian monsoon. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Burst Detection in Turbulent Channel Flows Based on Large Eddy Simulation Databases

Reliable turbulent channel flow databases at several Reynolds numbers have been established by large eddy simulation (LES), with two of them validated by comparing with typical direct numerical simulation (DNS) results. Furthermore, the statistics, such as velocity profile, turbulent intensities and shear stress, were obtained as well as the temporal and spatial structure of turbulent bursts. Based on the LES databases available, the conditional sampling methods are used to detect the structures of burst events. A method to deterimine the grouping parameter from the probability distribution function (pdf) curve of the time separation between ejection events is proposed to avoid the errors in detected results. And thus, the dependence of average burst period on thresholds is considerably weakened. Meanwhile, the average burst-to-bed area ratios are detected. It is found that the Reynolds number exhibits little effect on the burst period and burst-to-bed area ratio.

A thermal-elastic analysis on laser-induced reverse bulging and plugging in circular brass foil

A new failure mode is observed in circular brass foils induced by laser beam. The new failure is based on the following experimental facts : (1) the peripheries of the circular brass foils are fixed and the surfaces of the foils are radiated by laser beam ; (2) the laser beam used is considered to be non-Gaussian spatially, actually an approximately uniform distribution limited in a certain size spot ; (3) the pulse on time of laser beam should be 250 μs, i.e. so called long duration pulse laser. The failure process consists of three stages ; i.e. thermal bulging, localized shear deformation and perforation by plugging. The word reverse in reverse bulging and plugging mode means that bulging and plugging occur in the direction of incident laser beam. To study the newly-discovered type of failure quantitatively, analytical solutions for the axisymmetric temperature field and deflection curve are derived. The calculated results show that the newly discovered failure mode is attributed to the spatial structure effect of laser beam indeed.

Dynamic equations for curved submerged floating tunnel

In virtue of reference Cartesian coordinates, geometrical relations of spatial curved structure are presented in orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Dynamic equations for helical girder are derived by Hamilton principle. These equations indicate that four generalized displacements are coupled with each other. When spatial structure degenerates into planar curvilinear structure, two generalized displacements in two perpendicular planes are coupled with each other. Dynamic equations for arbitrary curvilinear structure may be obtained by the method used in this paper.

Ambientes da infância e a formação do educador: arranjo espacial no berçário

Esta tese teve o objetivo de investigar o processo de apropriação do espaço por educadores que atuam nos berçários da Creche Institucional Doutor Paulo Niemeyer. Trata-se de um estudo de caso/intervenção o qual busca entender os significados e sentidos produzidos por esses sujeitos e as transformações dos arranjos espaciais provocadas pelas intervenções ocorridas em 2008, que enfocaram a formação em serviço através da participação dos mesmos como co-pesquisadores. Partimos do pressuposto de que o espaço/ambiente é um mediador das práticas pedagógicas e do desenvolvimento infantil. Discutimos a concepção de espaço e de outras categorias espaciais (ambiente, território e lugar) a partir da abordagem interdisciplinar (Filosofia, Geografia, Arquitetura, Psicologia e Educação), e histórico-cultural, destacando o caráter relacional do mesmo. Participaram da pesquisa 22 educadores e 37 crianças dos 3 agrupamentos de berçários, além da diretora. Para a produção dos dados, foram realizados os seguintes procedimentos metodológicos: entrevista com a diretora, observação e registro em diário de bordo e fotográfico dos arranjos espaciais e suas transformações, sessões reflexivas com os educadores e aplicação de um questionário nos educadores. Os resultados indicam que as intervenções, via ações colaborativas, propiciaram mudanças significativas nos arranjos espaciais, aumentando a quantidade e a qualidade da estruturação espacial. Igualmente, esta pesquisa possibilitou a reflexão da prática pedagógica e a ressignificação do papel do ambiente no fazer pedagógico. Esperamos que esta pesquisa contribua para a melhoria da qualidade da educação de crianças pequenas e que o uso desta metodologia, da qual os educadores participaram como co-pesquisadores, possa auxiliar no processo de formação em serviço desses profissionais e também em outras pesquisas que privilegiem o víeis interventivo no contexto de investigação.

黄土高原丘陵沟壑区小流域优化生态-生产范式

黄土丘陵沟壑区是黄土高原的主体部分，也是具有特殊景观格局的生态-经济敏感区，保护环境、发展生产始终是其面临的双重任务。小流域既是区域的优势景观单元。文章试以小流域为基础，研究黄土丘陵沟壑区的优化生态-生产范式。根据内容，论文可分为5个部分： 首先，论文系统总结了黄土高原的几个主要特点，如黄土地貌，土壤侵蚀等。本章节重点介绍了小流域治理的发展历程及其特点，以及小流域的治理现状。其次，综合阐述了黄土高原丘陵沟壑区的生态经济背景，指出：小流域为黄土丘陵沟壑区的优势景观单元，是区域治理与发展的基本单元;并提出区域治理与开发的生态与生产定位。第三，详细研究了区域小流域景观生态学特点;同时探讨了作为一个复合生态系统，小流域景观功能及其发展变化特点。结合第二部分，提出了黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域优化生态-生产范式的5项原则。第四，具体分析了安塞纸坊沟流域自然资源环境与社会经济基础，依据范式建立的原则，根据净第一性生产力等环境、社会经济等指标，建立流域的优化生态-经济空间结构。最后，在第四部分的基础上，提出区域小流域优化生态-生产范式的空间体系组成以及组成范式的关键措施和核心组分。

植物种群小尺度空间结构的数量分析

采用位置指数、分异指数、结构复杂性指数、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数以及Ripley的K-方程，探讨了华南海岸英罗港红树植物木榄种群的分布格局、胸围和树高分异以及冠层结构方面的空间异质性。结果表明，多数木榄种群呈现随机分布，其个体胸围和树高的分异程度较低;而少数木榄种群呈现集群分布，其个体胸围和树高的分异程度明显。采用地理信息系统对木榄种群冠层和空隙斑块进行多种水平和垂直尺度的分析，冠层与空隙斑块之间的镶嵌格局因种群而异，这种格局可基于树冠投影用Shannon-Wiener多样性指数进行定量描述。冠层结构的空问异质性随空间尺度而变化，但这种变化在一定尺度范围内保持相对的稳定。这一尺度范围可作为木榄红树林更新或生态管理单位的参考尺度。 采用多重分形理论和方法对华南海岸北海红树林区红树植物白骨壤幼苗种群的分布格局进行了分析。结果表明，白骨壤幼苗种群的分布格局具有多标量和多重分形行为。随着q值由-2增加到4，Dq值介于1.078-1.997，f(a)值介于0.402-1.678，a(q)值介于0.909-2.480。多重分形的参数值与幼苗种群的集聚强度密切相关。差值（D。-D1）和[f(-1) –D]。是度量格局空间异质性程度的有效指数。海洋水文周期性规律、不同面积大小的裸地、树冠的阻拦作用等是制约白骨壤幼苗种群多重分形格局形成的主要因子。 采用地统计学理论和方法，对北京东灵山落叶松和胡桃楸针阔混交林下的克隆植物绢毛匍匐委陵菜分株种群的统计变量和土壤变量的空间格局进行了分析和比较。结果表明，绢毛匍匐委陵菜分株种群各器官生物量以及分株数和叶数的空间格局具有较高程度的异质性。总生物量以及茎、叶和根生物量的半方差函数曲线为指数模型，叶柄生物量、分株数和叶数的为球状模型，叶片生物量的为线性无基台值模型，而匍匐茎生物量的为纯块金效应模型。除叶片和匍匐茎的生物量外，其它器官生物量以及分株数和叶数由空间自相关引起的空间异质性．SHA主要表现在120-3 50cm的尺度范围内，SHA占总空间异质性的比例在50%以上。生境中，各种土壤变量的空间格局也具有较高程度的异质性。土壤含水量、NO3-、NH4+、有机质、全磷和PO4(3-)的半方差函数曲线为球状模型，而全氮、K+和pH的为指数模型。土壤变量由空间自相关引起的空间异质性SHA主要表现在8-lOOcm的尺度范围内，SHA占总空间异质性的比例在68%以上。绢毛匍匐委陵菜分株种群空间格局的自相关尺度显著大于其生境中土壤变量空间格局的自相关尺度，表明绢毛匍匐委陵菜通过匍匐茎相互联结的克隆分株种群对异质性土壤资源表现出较大的缓冲能力。绢毛匍匐委陵菜分株数的空间格局与土壤的含水量和全氮空间格局之间在几乎所有尺度上的相关性都不显著，但与其它土壤变量空间格局之间都存在不同程度的相关性，其中与NH4+、pH、PO4(3-)和全磷空间格局之间的相关性尺度范围较为明显和较大。通过分株数、叶数和生物量分配的可塑性变化，绢毛匍匐委陵菜分株种群的空间格局与土壤资源的空间格局之间产生相互联系，并随空间尺度的变化会发生改变。

Tracing sediment transport and bed regime in Nha Trang Bay

Three spatial structure groups of radionuclides in U and Th series, 210Pb-excess and 137Cs, and 40K were found based on analyzing temporal and spatial datum of their content by factor analysis with oblique rotation in Nhatrang bay. U and Th spatial structure with their contours decreased toward the offshore, ran longshore and divided seawater of bay into two parts with strong gradient on both sides. Inside part located from center of Nhatrang bay toward the seashore with three main deposit centers of their contents higher than 23 Bq/kg.dry for 238U and 40 Bq/kg.dry for 232Th, indicated unstability of shoreline. Almost sediments coming from river extended toward the offshore, were stopped and transported toward southeastern. The outside part was less than above mentioned content. The boundary line between two parts superposed with the constantly limit line of turbid plume in the rainy season. Direct influence of the continental runoff was limited by the 9 Bq/kg.dry contour of 238U, 19 Bq/kg.dry contour of 232Th. Longshore current was a predominant process whereas lateral transport as sifting and winnowing process of finer grains in sediments of Nhatrang bay. Areas that had very low content of 137Cs and 210 Pb-excess adjoining shoreline showed areas being eroded. Accumulation of 137Cs and 210 Pbexcess nearby river mouth characterized for fine compositions of sediments controlled by seasonal plumes and sites further toward the south indicated finer materials transported from river and accumulated in lack of hydrodynamic process. Near shore accumulation of 40K revealed the sediments there originated from bed erosion.

Geostatistical analysis of chlorophyll a in freshwater ecosystems

Horizontal spatial patterns of chlorophyll a in Meiziya Reservoir, Hubei Province, China were analyzed once each month during May, June and July 1997. Two geostatistical techniques, semivariance and fractal analysis, were used to determine variation in chlorophyll a over the whole study area (isotropic) and in different directions (anisotropic). Both techniques provided useful information for detecting and assessing spatial pattern changes of chlorophyll a in freshwater environments. Based on our case study, the distribution of chlorophyll a shifted from aggregated to random distribution in the case of small rainfall event, and then returned to the aggregated distribution after a large rainfall event. On the other hand, the distribution of chlorophyll a became more heterogeneous or random in the direction of water flow (S-N direction) when rainfall events occurred, which was enhanced by rainfall intensity. In contrast, the influence of water flow on the spatial patterns was weak in the E-W direction, and thus the distribution of chlorophyll a remained aggregate with a moderate spatial heterogeneity.

县级尺度土地利用结构特征定量分析

基于土地利用数量和空间结构内涵理解,选取相关定量指标组合并结合GIS技术,以安徽省含山县为例,利用其2002年土地变更数据和2000年1︰50000土地利用现状图,探讨县级尺度土地利用结构特征定量分析方法。研究表明:定量分析结果与县域实际相一致,所选取的定量指标能够充分发挥各自作用,尤其是在表征数量结构总体特征上,多样化指数、集中化指数、洛伦兹曲线和组合系数4个指标之间优势互补,相互验证,最为显著,这说明定量分析具有可行性,其关键在于合理地选取具有明确意义的定量指标组合,包括指标选取以及各指标之间的优化组合。全县土地利用结构总体特征可概括为:以耕地-林地-未利用地-水域为组合类型,以耕地和林地为景观基质,土地利用程度不高,以农用地为主,县域地形地貌格局是土地利用结构形成的自然基础,单位面积土地GDP、人口密度与土地利用程度、建设用地区位优势在一定程度上呈正相关。该研究可为县级,尤其是类似地区土地利用结构特征定量分析提供借鉴和参考。

Incremental pairwise discriminant analysis based visual tracking

The distinguishment between the object appearance and the background is the useful cues available for visual tracking in which the discriminant analysis is widely applied However due to the diversity of the background observation there are not adequate negative samples from the background which usually lead the discriminant method to tracking failure Thus a natural solution is to construct an object-background pair constrained by the spatial structure which could not only reduce the neg-sample number but also make full use of the background information surrounding the object However this Idea is threatened by the variant of both the object appearance and the spatial-constrained background observation especially when the background shifts as the moving of the object Thus an Incremental pairwise discriminant subspace is constructed in this paper to delineate the variant of the distinguishment In order to maintain the correct the ability of correctly describing the subspace we enforce two novel constraints for the optimal adaptation (1) pairwise data discriminant constraint and (2) subspace smoothness The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can alleviate adaptation drift and achieve better visual tracking results for a large variety of nonstationary scenes (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved