An improved novelty criterion for resource allocating networks

Online model order complexity estimation remains one of the key problems in neural network research. The problem is further exacerbated in situations where the underlying system generator is non-stationary. In this paper, we introduce a novelty criterion for resource allocating networks (RANs) which is capable of being applied to both stationary and slowly varying non-stationary problems. The deficiencies of existing novelty criteria are discussed and the relative performances are demonstrated on two real-world problems : electricity load forecasting and exchange rate prediction.

Electric vehicle capacity forecasting model with application to load levelling

There are many uncertainties in forecasting the charging and discharging capacity required by electric vehicles (EVs) often as a consequence of stochastic usage and intermittent travel. In terms of large-scale EV integration in future power networks this paper develops a capacity forecasting model which considers eight particular uncertainties in three categories. Using the model, a typical application of EVs to load levelling is presented and exemplified using a UK 2020 case study. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the proposed model is accurate for charge and discharge prediction and a feasible basis for steady-state analysis required for large-scale EV integration.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Electromagnetic atmosphere-plasma coupling: the global atmospheric electric circuit

A description is given of the global atmospheric electric circuit operating between the Earth’s surface and the ionosphere. Attention is drawn to the huge range of horizontal and vertical spatial scales, ranging from 10−9 m to 1012 m, concerned with the many important processes at work. A similarly enormous range of time scales is involved from 10−6 s to 109 s, in the physical effects and different phenomena that need to be considered. The current flowing in the global circuit is generated by disturbed weather such as thunderstorms and electrified rain/shower clouds, mostly occurring over the Earth’s land surface. The profile of electrical conductivity up through the atmosphere, determined mainly by galactic cosmic ray ionization, is a crucial parameter of the circuit. Model simulation results on the variation of the ionospheric potential, ∼250 kV positive with respect to the Earth’s potential, following lightning discharges and sprites are summarized. Experimental results comparing global circuit variations with the neutron rate recorded at Climax, Colorado, are then discussed. Within the return (load) part of the circuit in the fair weather regions remote from the generators, charge layers exist on the upper and lower edges of extensive layer clouds; new experimental evidence for these charge layers is also reviewed. Finally, some directions for future research in the subject are suggested.

Transport control in fusion plasmas by changing electric and magnetic field spatial profiles

For magnetically confined plasmas in tokamaks, we have numerically investigated how Lagrangian chaos at the plasma edge affects the plasma confinement. Initially, we have considered the chaotic motion of particles in an equilibrium electric field with a monotonic radial profile perturbed by drift waves. We have showed that an effective transport barrier may be created at the plasma edge by modifying the electric field radial profile. In the second place, we have obtained escape patterns and magnetic footprints of chaotic magnetic field lines in the region near a tokamak wall with resonant modes due to the action of an ergodic magnetic limiter. For monotonic plasma current density profiles we have obtained distributions of field line connections to the wall and line escape channels with the same spatial pattern as the magnetic footprints on the tokamak walls. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodology for forecasting electric power demand

Includes bibliography

Increasing Utilization of US Electric Grids via Smart Technologies: Integration of Load Management, Real Time Pricing, Renewables, EVs and Smart Grid Sensors

Electric power grids throughout the world suffer from serious inefficiencies associated with under-utilization due to demand patterns, engineering design and load following approaches in use today. These grids consume much of the world’s energy and represent a large carbon footprint. From material utilization perspectives significant hardware is manufactured and installed for this infrastructure often to be used at less than 20-40% of its operational capacity for most of its lifetime. These inefficiencies lead engineers to require additional grid support and conventional generation capacity additions when renewable technologies (such as solar and wind) and electric vehicles are to be added to the utility demand/supply mix. Using actual data from the PJM [PJM 2009] the work shows that consumer load management, real time price signals, sensors and intelligent demand/supply control offer a compelling path forward to increase the efficient utilization and carbon footprint reduction of the world’s grids. Underutilization factors from many distribution companies indicate that distribution feeders are often operated at only 70-80% of their peak capacity for a few hours per year, and on average are loaded to less than 30-40% of their capability. By creating strong societal connections between consumers and energy providers technology can radically change this situation. Intelligent deployment of smart sensors, smart electric vehicles, consumer-based load management technology very high saturations of intermittent renewable energy supplies can be effectively controlled and dispatched to increase the levels of utilization of existing utility distribution, substation, transmission, and generation equipment. The strengthening of these technology, society and consumer relationships requires rapid dissemination of knowledge (real time prices, costs & benefit sharing, demand response requirements) in order to incentivize behaviors that can increase the effective use of technological equipment that represents one of the largest capital assets modern society has created.

Theta burst stimulation improves overt visual search in spatial neglect independently of attentional load

Visual neglect is considerably exacerbated by increases in visual attentional load. These detrimental effects of attentional load are hypothesised to be dependent on an interplay between dysfunctional inter-hemispheric inhibitory dynamics and load-related modulation of activity in cortical areas such as the posterior parietal cortex (PPC). Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation (cTBS) over the contralesional PPC reduces neglect severity. It is unknown, however, whether such positive effects also operate in the presence of the detrimental effects of heightened attentional load. Here, we examined the effects of cTBS on neglect severity in overt visual search (i.e., with eye movements), as a function of high and low visual attentional load conditions. Performance was assessed on the basis of target detection rates and eye movements, in a computerised visual search task and in two paper-pencil tasks. cTBS significantly ameliorated target detection performance, independently of attentional load. These ameliorative effects were significantly larger in the high than the low load condition, thereby equating target detection across both conditions. Eye movement analyses revealed that the improvements were mediated by a redeployment of visual fixations to the contralesional visual field. These findings represent a substantive advance, because cTBS led to an unprecedented amelioration of overt search efficiency that was independent of visual attentional load.

Nationwide impact and vehicle to grid application of electric vehicles mobility using an activity based model

This paper describes the impact of electric mobility on the transmission grid in Flanders region (Belgium), using a micro-simulation activity based models. These models are used to provide temporal and spatial estimation of energy and power demanded by electric vehicles (EVs) in different mobility zones. The increment in the load demand due to electric mobility is added to the background load demand in these mobility areas and the effects over the transmission substations are analyzed. From this information, the total storage capacity per zone is evaluated and some strategies for EV aggregator are proposed, allowing the aggregator to fulfill bids on the electricity markets.

Operator's manual : grinding kit, valve seat, electric 35 degree angle type concentric drive, 1/4 horsepower, AC/DC, single phase, 115-volt, 14000 RPM rated no load speed (K.O. Lee Company model P300BB) (4910-060-9983) and (K.O. Lee Company model P300BB-M2) (4910-473-6437).

"February 1965."

Operator's manual : grinding kit, valve seat, electric, 35 degree angle, concentric drive, driver, AC/DC, 115-volt, 7,500 RPM rated no load speed (Albertson and Company model 1712-M) (4910-060-9983).

"June 1965."

Organizational, direct and general support and depot maintenance repair parts and special tools lists : load bank 0-30KW, AC, portable, skid mounted, (Sun Electric Corp model GPT-3D-1) FSN 6115-964-1091 and (model GPT-3D) FSN 6115-903-8174.

"January 1968."

Operator, organizational, direct and general support, and depot maintenance manual : load bank 0-30 KW, AC, portable, skid-mounted (Sun Electric Corp model GPT-3D-1) FSN 6115-964-1091 and (Sun Electric Corp model GPT-3D) FSN 6115-903-8174.

"August 1967."