Prediction of Shallow Landslide prone regions in Undulating Terrains

Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with free and open source software (FOSS) - Open Modeller were used to model the probable landslide occurrence points. Environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index and precipitation have been used in modeling. Simulated output of these techniques is validated with the actual landslide occurrence points, which showed 92% (GARP) and 96% (SVM) accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest month and 91% and 94% accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.

Prediction of Fatigue Life in Plain Concrete Using Entropy Production

An energy approach within the framework of thermodynamics is used to model the fatigue process in plain concrete. Fatigue crack growth is an irreversible process associated with an irreversible entropy gain. A closed-form expression for entropy generated during fatigue in terms of energy dissipated is derived using principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. An increase in compliance is considered as a measure of damage accumulated during fatigue. The entropy at final fatigue failure is shown to be independent of loading and geometry and is proposed as a material property. A relationship between energy dissipated and number of cycles of fatigue loading is obtained. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Numerical prediction of nozzle flow separation: Issue of turbulence modeling

Numerical simulation of separated flows in rocket nozzles is challenging because existing turbulence models are unable to predict it correctly. This paper addresses this issue with the Spalart-Allmaras and Shear Stress Transport (SST) eddy-viscosity models, which predict flow separation with moderate success. Their performances have been compared against experimental data for a conical and two contoured subscale nozzles. It is found that they fail to predict the separation location correctly, exhibiting sensitivity to the nozzle pressure ratio (NPR) and nozzle type. A careful assessment indicated how the model had to be tuned for better, consistent prediction. It is learnt that SST model's failure is caused by limiting of the shear stress inside boundary layer according to Bradshaw's assumption, and by over prediction of jet spreading rate. Accordingly, SST's coefficients were empirically modified to match the experimental wall pressure data. Results confirm that accurate RANS prediction of separation depends on the correct capture of the jet spreading rate, and that it is feasible over a wide range of NPRs by modified values of the diffusion coefficients in the turbulence model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Damage evolution, localization and failure of solids subjected to impact loading

In order to reveal the underlying mesoscopic mechanism governing the experimentally observed failure in solids subjected to impact loading, this paper presents a model of statistical microdamage evolution to macroscopic failure, in particular to spallation. Based on statistical microdamage mechanics and experimental measurement of nucleation and growth of microcracks in an Al alloy subjected to plate impact loading, the evolution law of damage and the dynamical function of damage are obtained. Then, a lower bound to damage localization can be derived. It is found that the damage evolution beyond the threshold of damage localization is extremely fast. So, damage localization can serve as a precursor to failure. This is supported by experimental observations. On the other hand, the prediction of failure becomes more accurate, when the dynamic function of damage is fitted with longer experimental observations. We also looked at the failure in creep with the same idea. Still, damage localization is a nice precursor to failure in creep rupture.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Prediction of mixed-mode cracking direction in random, short-fibre composite-materials

The prediction of cracking direction in composite materials is of significance to the design of composite structures. This paper presents several methods for predicting the cracking direction in the double grooved tension-shear specimen which gives mixed-mode cracking. Five different criteria are used in this analysis: two of them have been used by other investigators and the others are proposed by the present authors. The strain energy density criterion proposed by G.C. Sih is modified to take account of the influence of the anisotropy of the strength on the direction of crack. The two failure criteria of Tsai-Hill and Norris are extended to predict the crack orientation. The stress distributions in the near-notch zone are calculated by using the 8-node quadrilateral isoparametric finite element method. The predictions of all the criteria except one are in good agreement with the experimental measurement. In addition, on the basis of the FEM results, the size of the zone in which the singular term is dominant is estimated.

Controle gerencial em equipes de desenvolvimento de software: um estudo de caso

A tecnologia da informação (TI) transformou o mundo nas últimas décadas e suas contribuições no processamento e disseminação da informação provocaram mudanças radicais no modo de viver das pessoas e afetou profundamente a gestão e a estrutura das organizações. Neste novo cenário, a literatura de negócios vem apresentando registros de desperdício de investimentos na área de tecnologia da informação. As dificuldades em reconhecer valor nos investimentos em TI e os desafios enfrentados na gestão de equipes de desenvolvimento de software são aspectos considerados no problema a ser pesquisado, a saber: a área de TI carece de sistemas de controle gerencial que poderiam minimizar riscos de desperdício de recursos, de baixa produtividade ou de fracasso na implantação do sistema a ser desenvolvido?O objetivo geral desta pesquisa é investigar as dificuldades enfrentadas pelas equipes de desenvolvimento de software para avaliar se há ou não desperdício de recursos, segundo a percepção dos entrevistados e, ainda, se há ou não carência de controle gerencial. Investigar quais poderiam ser os indicadores mais adequados para um sistema de controle gerencial voltados para esta área de atuação da TI e mapear fatores de sucesso estão entre os objetivos específicos da pesquisa. Do ponto de vista metodológico, esta é uma pesquisa exploratória que adota o procedimento de estudo de caso baseado em análise qualitativa. Os resultados alcançados confirmam o problema de desperdício de recursos e de baixa produtividade nas equipes de TI da empresa analisada e apontam para a carência de mecanismos ou processos de controle gerencial.

Prediction of mesophotic coral distributions in the Au‘au Channel, Hawaii

The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.

Prediction of FRP debonding using the global-energy-balance approach

A major research program was carried out to analyze the mechanism of FRP debonding from concrete beams using global-energy-balance approach (GEBA). The key findings are that the fracture process zone is small so there is no R-curve to consider, failure is dominated by Mode I behavior, and the theory agrees well with tests. The analyses developed in the study provide an essential tool that will enable fracture mechanics to be used to determine the load at which FRP plates will debond from concrete beams. This obviates the need for finite element (FE) analyses in situations where reliable details of the interface geometry and crack-tip stress fields are not attainable for an accurate analysis. This paper presents an overview of the GEBA analyses that is described in detail elsewhere, and explains the slightly unconventional assumptions made in the analyses, such as the revised moment-curvature model, the location of an effective centroid, the separate consideration of the FRP and the RC beam for the purposes of the analysis, the use of Mode I fracture energies and the absence of an R-curve in the fracture mechanics analysis.

Dopamine-dependent prediction errors underpin reward-seeking behaviour in humans.

Theories of instrumental learning are centred on understanding how success and failure are used to improve future decisions. These theories highlight a central role for reward prediction errors in updating the values associated with available actions. In animals, substantial evidence indicates that the neurotransmitter dopamine might have a key function in this type of learning, through its ability to modulate cortico-striatal synaptic efficacy. However, no direct evidence links dopamine, striatal activity and behavioural choice in humans. Here we show that, during instrumental learning, the magnitude of reward prediction error expressed in the striatum is modulated by the administration of drugs enhancing (3,4-dihydroxy-L-phenylalanine; L-DOPA) or reducing (haloperidol) dopaminergic function. Accordingly, subjects treated with L-DOPA have a greater propensity to choose the most rewarding action relative to subjects treated with haloperidol. Furthermore, incorporating the magnitude of the prediction errors into a standard action-value learning algorithm accurately reproduced subjects' behavioural choices under the different drug conditions. We conclude that dopamine-dependent modulation of striatal activity can account for how the human brain uses reward prediction errors to improve future decisions.

Vibration from railways: Can we achieve better than +/-10dB prediction accuracy?

This paper examines the sources of uncertainly in models used to predict vibration from underground railways. It will become clear from this presentation that by varying parameters by a small amount, consistent with uncertainties in measured data, the predicted vibration levels vary significantly, often by more than 10dB. This error cannot be forecast. Small changes made to soil parameters (Compressive and Shear Wave velocities and density), to slab bending stiffness and mass and to the measurement position give rise to changes in vibration levels of more than lOdB. So if 10dB prediction error results from small uncertainties in soil parameters and measurement position it cannot be sensible to rely on prediction models for accuracy better than 10dB. The presentation will demonstrate in real time the use of the new - and freely-available - PiP software for calculating vibration from railway tunnels in real time.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging of impaired sensory prediction in schizophrenia.

IMPORTANCE: Forward models predict the sensory consequences of planned actions and permit discrimination of self- and non-self-elicited sensation; their impairment in schizophrenia is implied by an abnormality in behavioral force-matching and the flawed agency judgments characteristic of positive symptoms, including auditory hallucinations and delusions of control. OBJECTIVE: To assess attenuation of sensory processing by self-action in individuals with schizophrenia and its relation to current symptom severity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired while medicated individuals with schizophrenia (n = 19) and matched controls (n = 19) performed a factorially designed sensorimotor task in which the occurrence and relative timing of action and sensation were manipulated. The study took place at the neuroimaging research unit at the Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, and the Maudsley Hospital. RESULTS: In controls, a region of secondary somatosensory cortex exhibited attenuated activation when sensation and action were synchronous compared with when the former occurred after an unexpected delay or alone. By contrast, reduced attenuation was observed in the schizophrenia group, suggesting that these individuals were unable to predict the sensory consequences of their own actions. Furthermore, failure to attenuate secondary somatosensory cortex processing was predicted by current hallucinatory severity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Although comparably reduced attenuation has been reported in the verbal domain, this work implies that a more general physiologic deficit underlies positive symptoms of schizophrenia.

中国东部上第三系硬粘土的工程地质特性及边坡开挖工程环境效应研究

The engineering geological properties of Neogene hard clays and related engineering problems are frontiers in the fields of Engineering Geology, Soil Mechanics and Rock Mechanics. Recently, it has been recognized that Neogene hard clay is the intermediate type of material between the soil and the rock. Many aspects of them, such as sampling, testing, calculating and engineering process, are special, which could not be researched by means of theories and methods of traditional Soil Mechanics of Rock Mechanics. In order to get real knowledge and instruct the engineering practice, intersect studying of multiple disciplines, including Engineering Geology, Soil Mechanics and Rock Mechanics, etc., is necessary. Neogene hard clay is one of the important study objects of regional problem rocks & soils in our country, which extensively distributed in China, especially in Eastern China. Taking the related areas along the middle line of the Project of Transferring Water from the South to the North (e.g. Nanyang basin, Fangcheng-Baofeng area and Handan-Yongnian area), South-west of Shandong, Xu-Huai area and Beijing area, etc. as main study areas, the paper divided Neogene hard clays into reduction environment dominated origin and oxidation environment dominated origin, which distributed on areas western and eastern to Mount Taihangshan respectively. Intermediate types are also existed in some areas, which mainly distribute near the edges of depositional basins; they are usually of transitions between diluvial and lacustrine deposits. As to Neogene hard clays from Eastern China, the clay particle content is high, and montmorillonite or illite/montmorillonite turbostratic mineral is the dominating clay mineral. The content of effective montmorillonite is very high in each area, which is the basis for the undesirable engineering properties of Neogene hard clays. For hard clays from the same area, the content of effective montmorillonite in gray-greenish hard clay is much higher than that in purple-brownish or brown-yellowish hard clay, which is the reason why the gray-greenish hard clay usually has outstanding expansive property. On the other hand, purple-brownish or brown-yellowish hard clay has relatively less montmorillonite, so its property is better. All of these prove that the composition (clay mineral) of Neogene hard clay is the control factor for the engineering properties. Neogene hard clays have obvious properties such as fissured, overconsolidated and expansive, which are the main reasons that many engineering problems and geological harzards usually occur in Neogene hard clays. The paper systematically elaborates the engineering properties of Neogene hard clays from Eastern China, analyses the relationships between engineering properties and basic indexes. The author introduces the ANN method into the prediction of engineering property indexes of hard clays, which provides a new way for quantitatively assessment and prediction of engineering property indexes. During investigation in the field, the author found that there exists obvious seam-sheared zone between different hard clays in Miocene Xiacaowan formation in Xu-Huai area. Similar phenomenon also exists near the borderline between Neogene hard clays and underlying coal measures in the Southwest of Shandong province, which could be observed in the cores. The discovery of seam-sheard zone has important theoretical and practical significance for engineering stability analysis and revealing the origin of fissures in Neogene hard clays. The macrostructure, medium structure and microstructure together control the engineering properties of hard clays. The author analyses and summarizes the structural effects on hard clays in detail. The complex of the strength property of hard clays is mostly related to the characteristics of fissures, which is one of the main factors that affect the choice of shear strength parameters. So structure-control theory must be inseparably combined with composition-control theory during the engineering geological and rock/soil mechanics research of hard clays. The engineering properties, such as fissured, overconsolidated and expansive, control the instability of engineering behaviors of Neogene hard clays under the condition of excavation, i.e. very sensitive to the change of existence environment. Based on test data analysis, the author elaborates the effects of engineering environment change on the engineering properties. Taking Nanyang basin as example, the author utilizes FEM to study the effects of various factors on stability of cutting canal slopes, than sets forth the characteristics, development laws and formation mechanism of the deformation and failure of hard clay canal slopes, summarizes the protection and reinforcement principles, as well as the protection and remedy steps. On the basis of comparison of engineering properties of domestic and foreign Neogene muddy deposits, in the view of whole globe and associated with the geological characteristics of China, the paper demonstrates that the intermediate type of the material between the soil and the rock, named "hard clay/soft rock", which can not be separated abruptly, really exists in China. The author has given a preliminary classification based on its geological origin and distribution law, which is very significant for promoting the mixture of Engineering Geology, Soil Mechanics and Rock Mechanics. In the course of large scales engineering construction in China, many engineering experiences and testing data are gained, summarizing these testing results and automatically managing them with computer technology are very necessary. The author develops a software named "Hard Clay-Soft Rock Engineering Geological Information Management and Analysis System (HRGIMS)", realizes the automatic and visual management of geo-engineering information, on the basis of information management, the functions of test data analysis and engineering property prediction are strengthened. This system has well merits for practice and popularization.

Qualitative Circuit Models in Failure Analysis Reasoning

Lee M.H., Qualitative Circuit Models in Failure Analysis Reasoning, AI Journal. vol 111, pp239-276.1999.