Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study

Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical features for estimates and forecasts based on vector autoregressive models. First, we show that the ìbestî empirical model developed without common cycle restrictions need not nest the ìbestî model developed with those restrictions. This is due to possible differences in the lag-lengths chosen by model selection criteria for the two alternative models. Second, we show that the costs of ignoring common cyclical features in vector autoregressive modelling can be high, both in terms of forecast accuracy and efficient estimation of variance decomposition coefficients. Third, we find that the Hannan-Quinn criterion performs best among model selection criteria in simultaneously selecting the lag-length and rank of vector autoregressions.

The importance of Common-Cyclical Features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study (Preliminary Version)

Despite the belief, supported byrecentapplied research, thataggregate datadisplay short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences ofthese data “features.” W e use exhaustive M onte-Carlo simulations toinvestigate theimportance ofrestrictions implied by common-cyclicalfeatures for estimates and forecasts based on vectorautoregressive and errorcorrection models. First, weshowthatthe“best” empiricalmodeldevelopedwithoutcommoncycles restrictions neednotnestthe“best” modeldevelopedwiththoserestrictions, duetothe use ofinformation criteria forchoosingthe lagorderofthe twoalternative models. Second, weshowthatthecosts ofignoringcommon-cyclicalfeatures inV A R analysis may be high in terms offorecastingaccuracy and e¢ciency ofestimates ofvariance decomposition coe¢cients. A lthough these costs are more pronounced when the lag orderofV A R modelsareknown, theyarealsonon-trivialwhenitis selectedusingthe conventionaltoolsavailabletoappliedresearchers. T hird, we…ndthatifthedatahave common-cyclicalfeatures andtheresearcherwants touseaninformationcriterium to selectthelaglength, theH annan-Q uinn criterium is themostappropriate, sincethe A kaike and theSchwarz criteriahave atendency toover- and under-predictthe lag lengthrespectivelyinoursimulations.

Monte Carlo investigations of intermolecular interactions in water-amide mixtures

Monte Carlo simulations of water-amides (amide=fonnamide-FOR, methylfonnamide-NMF and dimethylformamide-DMF) solutions have been carried out in the NpT ensemble at 308 K and 1 atm. The structure and excess enthalpy of the mixtures as a function of the composition have been investigated. The TIP4P model was used for simulating water and six-site models previously optimized in this laboratory were used for simulating the liquid amides. The intermolecular interaction energy was calculated using the classical 6-12 Lennard-Jones potential plus a Coulomb term. The interaction energy between solute and solvent has been partitioned what leads to a better understanding of the behavior of the enthalpy of mixture obtained for the three solutions experimentally. Radial distribution functions for the water-amides correlations permit to explore the intermolecular interactions between the molecules. The results show that three, two and one hydrogen bonds between the water and the amide molecules are formed in the FOR, NMF and DMF-water solutions, respectively. These H-bonds are, respectively, stronger for DMF-water, NMF-water and FOR-water. In the NMF-water solution, the interaction between the methyl group of the NMF and the oxygen of the water plays a role in the stabilization of the aqueous solution quite similar to that of an H-bond in the FOR-water solution. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Monte Carlo Revisiting of N-Methylformamide and Acetone

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Monte Carlo studies of N-methylformamide-dimethyl sulfoxide mixtures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.

Monte Carlo renormalization group with evolution in the space of parameters

Using data from a single simulation we obtain Monte Carlo renormalization-group information in a finite region of parameter space by adapting the Ferrenberg-Swendsen histogram method. Several quantities are calculated in the two-dimensional N 2 Ashkin-Teller and Ising models to show the feasibility of the method. We show renormalization-group Hamiltonian flows and critical-point location by matching of correlations by doing just two simulations at a single temperature in lattices of different sizes to partially eliminate finite-size effects.

C-H center dot center dot center dot O and N-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds in liquid amides investigated by Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulations of liquid formamide, N-methylformamide (MF), and N,N-dimethylformamide (DMF) have been performed in the isothermal and isobaric ensemble at 298 K and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the C-H ... O and N-H ... O hydrogen bonds. The interaction energy was calculated using the classical 6-12 Lennard-Jones pairwise potential plus a Coulomb term on a rigid six-site molecular model with the potential parameters being optimized in this work. Theoretical values obtained for heat of vaporization and liquid densities are in good agreement with the experimental data. The radial distribution function [RDF, g(r)] obtained compare well with R-X diffraction data available. The RDF and molecular mechanics (MM2) minimization show that the C-H ... O interaction has a significant role in the structure of the three liquids. These results are supported by ab initio calculations. This Interaction is particularly important in the structure of MF. The intensity of the N-H ... O hydrogen bond is greater in the MF than formamide. This could explain some anomalous properties verified in MF. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Monte Carlo and modified Tanford-Kirkwood results for macromolecular electrostatics calculations

The understanding of electrostatic interactions is an essential aspect of the complex correlation between structure and function of biological macromolecules. It is also important in protein engineering and design. Theoretical studies of such interactions are predominantly done within the framework of Debye-Huckel theory. A classical example is the Tanford-Kirkwood (TK) model. Besides other limitations, this model assumes an infinitesimally small macromolecule concentration. By comparison to Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, it is shown that TK predictions for the shifts in ion binding constants upon addition of salt become less reliable even at moderately macromolecular concentrations. A simple modification based on colloidal literature is suggested to the TK scheme. The modified TK models suggested here satisfactorily predict MC and experimental shifts in the calcium binding constant as a function of protein concentration for the calbindin D-9k mutant and calmodulin.

Application of a new reverse Monte Carlo algorithm to polyatomic molecular systems. I. Liquid water

Using a new reverse Monte Carlo algorithm, we present simulations that reproduce very well several structural and thermodynamic properties of liquid water. Both Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics simulations and experimental radial distribution functions used as input are accurately reproduced using a small number of molecules and no external constraints. Ad hoc energy and hydrogen bond analysis show the physical consistency and limitations of the generated RMC configurations. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

C - H ⋯ 0 and N - H ⋯ 0 hydrogen bonds in liquid amides investigated by monte carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulations of liquid formamide, N-methylformamide (MF), and N, N-dimethytformamide (DMF) have been performed in the isothermal and isobaric ensemble at 298 K and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the C-H ⋯ O and N-H ⋯ O hydrogen bonds. The interaction energy was calculated using the classical 6-12 Lennard-Jones pairwise potential plus a Coulomb term on a rigid six-site molecular model with the potential parameters being optimized in this work. Theoretical values obtained for heat of vaporization and liquid densities are in good agreement with the experimental data. The radial distribution function [RDF, g(r)] obtained compare well with R-X diffraction data available. The RDF and molecular mechanics (MM2) minimization show that the C-H ⋯ O interaction has a significant role in the structure of the three liquids. These results are supported by ab initio calculations. This interaction is particularly important in the structure of MF. The intensity of the N - H ⋯ O hydrogen bond is greater in the MF than formamide. This could explain some anomalous properties verified in MF. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Estudo conformacional de polianfóteros fracos utilizando simulações de Monte Carlo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo de percolação de clusters de Monte Carlo para o modelo de Ising bidimensional

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

Teoria quântica do campo escalar real com autoacoplamento quártico - simulações de Monte Carlo na rede com um algoritmo worm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)