Sequential asymmetric auctions with endogenous participation

In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.

Phlebotomine salivas inhibit immune inflammation-induced neutrophil migration via an autocrine DC-derived PGE(2)/IL-10 sequential pathway

In the present study, we investigated whether saliva from Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus duboscqi inhibited antigen-induced neutrophil migration and the mechanisms involved in these effects. The pretreatment of immunized mice with salivary gland extracts (SGE) of both phlebotomines inhibited OVA challenge-induced neutrophil migration and release of the neutrophil chemotactic mediators, MIP-1 alpha, TNF-alpha, and leukotriene B-4 (LTB4). Furthermore, SGE treatment enhanced the production of anti-inflammatory mediators, IL-10 and PGE(2). SGE treatments failed to inhibit neutrophil migration and MIP-1 alpha and LTB4 production in IL-10(-/-) mice, also failing in mice treated with nonselective (indomethacin) or selective (rofecoxibe) cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitors. COX inhibition resulted in diminished SGE-induced IL-10 production, and PGE(2) release triggered by SGE remained increased in IL-10(-/-) mice, suggesting that prostanoids are acting through an IL-10-dependent mechanism. SGE treatments in vivo reduced the OVA-induced lymphoproliferation of spleen-derived cells. Further, the in vitro incubation of bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (DC) with SGE inhibited the proliferation of CD4(+) T cells from OVA-immunized mice, which was reversed by indomethacin and anti-IL-10 antibody treatments. Supporting these results, SGE induced the production of PGE(2) and IL-10 by DC, which were blocked by COX inhibition. These effects were associated with the reduction of DC-membrane expression of MHC-II and CD86 by SGE treatment. Altogether, the results showed that Phlebotomine saliva inhibits immune inflammation-induced neutrophil migration by an autocrine DC sequential production of PGE(2)/IL-10, suggesting that the saliva constituents might be promising therapeutic molecules to target immune inflammatory diseases.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

Valproic acid has temporal variability in urinary clearance of metabolites

The reasons for the intra- and interindividual variability in the clearance of valproic acid (VPA) have not been completely characterized. The aim of this study was to examine day-night changes in the clearance of 3-oxo-valproate (3-oxo-VPA), 4-hydroxy-valproate (4-OH-VPA), and valproic acid glucuronides under steady state. Six diurnally active healthy male volunteers ingested 200 mg sodium valproate 12 hourly, at 0800 and 2000, for 28 days. On the last study day, two sequential 12-h urine samples were collected commencing at 2000 the evening before. Plasma samples were obtained at the end of each collection. Following alkaline hydrolysis, urine was analyzed for concentrations of VPA, 3-oxo-VPA, and 4-OH-VPA. A separate aliquot was assayed for creatinine (CR). The plasma concentrations of VPA, 3-oxo-VPA, 2-en-VPA, and CR were determined. The analysis of VPA and its metabolites was performed by CC-MS. There was an increase in plasma 3-oxo-VPA concentration at 0800, sampling as compared to 2000 sampling (p < .05). The urinary excretion of 3-oxo-VPA and VPA glucuronides were decreased between 2000 and 0800, compared to between 0800, and 2000, by 30% and 50% respectively (p < .05). These results indicate a nocturnal decrease in renal clearance of 3-oxo-VPA rather than a decrease in the beta -oxidation of VPA at night. These differences were not explained by differences between the sampling periods in CR excretion. These results indicate the importance of collecting samples of 24-h duration when studying metabolic profiles of VPA.

Design of clinical pharmacology trials

1. There are a variety of methods that could be used to increase the efficiency of the design of experiments. However, it is only recently that such methods have been considered in the design of clinical pharmacology trials. 2. Two such methods, termed data-dependent (e.g. simulation) and data-independent (e.g. analytical evaluation of the information in a particular design), are becoming increasingly used as efficient methods for designing clinical trials. These two design methods have tended to be viewed as competitive, although a complementary role in design is proposed here. 3. The impetus for the use of these two methods has been the need for a more fully integrated approach to the drug development process that specifically allows for sequential development (i.e. where the results of early phase studies influence later-phase studies). 4. The present article briefly presents the background and theory that underpins both the data-dependent and -independent methods with the use of illustrative examples from the literature. In addition, the potential advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed.

Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in eastern Australia are threatened by land clearing for agricultural and urban development. At the same time, conservation efforts are hindered by a dearth of information about inland populations. Faecal deposits offer a source of information that is readily available and easily collected non-invasively. We detail a faecal pellet sampling protocol that was developed for use in a large rangeland biogeographic region. The method samples trees in belt transects, uses a thorough search at the tree base to quickly identify trees with koala pellets under them, then estimates the abundance of faecal pellets under those trees using 1-m(2) quadrats. There was a strong linear relationship between these estimates and a complete enumeration of pellet abundance under the same trees. We evaluated the accuracy of our method in detecting trees where pellets were present by means of a misclassification index that was weighed more heavily for missed trees that had high numbers of pellets under them. This showed acceptable accuracy in all landforms except riverine, where some trees with large numbers of pellets were missed. Here, accuracy in detecting pellet presence was improved by sampling with quadrats, rather than basal searches. Finally, we developed a method to reliably age pellets and demonstrate how this protocol could be used with the faecal-standing-crop method to derive a regional estimate of absolute koala abundance.

Genetic consequences of sequential founder events by an island-colonizing bird

The importance of founder events in promoting evolutionary changes on islands has been a subject of long-running controversy. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a lack of empirical evidence from naturally founded island populations. Here we undertake a genetic analysis of a series of historically documented, natural colonization events by the silvereye species-complex (Zosterops lateralis), a group used to illustrate the process of island colonization in the original founder effect model. Our results indicate that single founder events do not affect levels of heterozygosity or allelic diversity, nor do they result in immediate genetic differentiation between populations. Instead, four to five successive founder events are required before indices of diversity and divergence approach that seen in evolutionarily old forms. A Bayesian analysis based on computer simulation allows inferences to be made on the number of effective founders and indicates that founder effects are weak because island populations are established from relatively large flocks. Indeed, statistical support for a founder event model was not significantly higher than for a gradual-drift model for all recently colonized islands. Taken together, these results suggest that single colonization events in this species complex are rarely accompanied by severe founder effects, and multiple founder events and/or long-term genetic drift have been of greater consequence for neutral genetic diversity.

Alterations in Plasmodium falciparum genotypes during sequential infections suggest the presence of strain specific immunity

Many of the asexual stage Plasmodium falciparum proteins that are the targets of host protective responses are markedly polymorphic. The full repertoire of diversity is not defined for any antigen. Most studies have focused on the genes encoding merozoite surface proteins 1 and 2 (MSP1, MSP2). We explored the extent of diversity of some of the less studied merozoite surface antigens and analyzed the degree of complexity of malaria field isolates by deriving nucleotide sequences of several antigens. We have determined the genotype of apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) in a group of 30 field samples, collected over 29 months, from individuals living in an area of intense malaria transmission in Irian Jaya, identifying 14 different alleles. AMA1 genotyping was combined with previously determined MSP2 typing. AMA1 had the greatest power in distinguishing between isolates but methodological problems, especially when mixed infections are present, suggest it is not an ideal typing target. MSP1, MSP3, and glutamate-rich protein genotypes were also determined from a smaller group of samples, and all results were combined to derive an extended antigenic haplotype. Within this subset of 10 patients, nine different genotypes could be discerned; however, five patients were all infected with the same strain. This strain was present in individuals from two separate villages and was still present 12 months later. This strain was predominant at the first time point but had disappeared at the fourth time point. This significant change in malaria genotypes could be due to strain-specific immunity developing in this population.

Two-dimensional balanced sampling plans excluding contiguous units

A balanced sampling plan excluding contiguous units (or BSEC for short) was first introduced by Hedayat, Rao and Stufken in 1988. These designs can be used for survey sampling when the units are arranged in one-dimensional ordering and the contiguous units in this ordering provide similar information. In this paper, we generalize the concept of a BSEC to the two-dimensional situation and give constructions of two-dimensional BSECs with block size 3. The existence problem is completely solved in the case where lambda = 1.

Evaluation of line-transect sampling for estimating koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland

Distance sampling using line transects has not been previously used or tested for estimating koala abundance. In July 2001, a pilot survey was conducted to compare the use of line transects with strip transects for estimating koala abundance. Both methods provided a similar estimate of density. On the basis of the results of the pilot survey, the distribution and abundance of koalas in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland, was determined using line-transect sampling. In total, 134 lines (length 64 km) were used to sample bushland areas. Eighty-two independent koalas were sighted. Analysis of the frequency distribution of sighting distances using the software program DISTANCE enabled a global detection function to be estimated for survey sites in bushland areas across the Shire. Abundance in urban parts of the Shire was estimated from densities obtained from total counts at eight urban sites that ranged from 26 to 51 ha in size. Koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire was estimated at 4584 (95% confidence interval, 4040-5247). Line-transect sampling is a useful method for estimating koala abundance provided experienced koala observers are used when conducting surveys.